2024 Rookie Draft Strategies

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Did anyone play back in the TD only days? I didn’t but when i started, PPR wasn’t really a thing yet

My first league was like that. I believe it was 1998. When I brought up the idea of including passing, rushing & receiving yards, I was brutally scolded. The commissioner said that our scores wouldn't look like real NFL game scores anymore.

That set me on the path to create my own league.

Gotta say, that actually sounds pretty cool. TDs and FGs only

[JTLoh]

Did anyone play back in the TD only days? I didn’t but when i started, PPR wasn’t really a thing yet

When I started, the commissioner would get the USA Today on Tuesday and compute the stats by hand. Then they would write it all out on a piece of paper, W or L and standings, with your score, etc. Then they would make 12 copies and mail them. If you were lucky on Friday, you would get the standings sheet in the mail. Friday was the BEST day.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Did anyone play back in the TD only days? I didn’t but when i started, PPR wasn’t really a thing yet

My first league was like that. I believe it was 1998. When I brought up the idea of including passing, rushing & receiving yards, I was brutally scolded. The commissioner said that our scores wouldn't look like real NFL game scores anymore.

That set me on the path to create my own league.

Gotta say, that actually sounds pretty cool. TDs and FGs only

Sig Team 1 was like this for many years. Except we also play D/ST and get points for sacks/turnovers/TD's. We did recently add minuscule decimal yardage points to the scoring system though to avoid ties. Those were happening too often for people's liking. But the vast majority of scoring comes from NFL scoring plays. Been in that league since 1998, and it was around a while before I joined.

As for the bolded, the same happened to me (many years ago). Doubly so when I broached the idea of IR slots.

[moishetreats]

Did anyone play back in the TD only days? I didn’t but when i started, PPR wasn’t really a thing yet

When I started, the commissioner would get the USA Today on Tuesday and compute the stats by hand. Then they would write it all out on a piece of paper, W or L and standings, with your score, etc. Then they would make 12 copies and mail them. If you were lucky on Friday, you would get the standings sheet in the mail. Friday was the BEST day.

I was SO that Commish!! Thankfully, that was during college, so I made everyone in our league come to my place to pick up their scores. And there was one year where I was working graveyard Monday night, so it was perfect. I'd sit behind the desk for hours with not much to do, so I could compute all the stats and copy them. Did it by hand for years...

[lukkynumber13]

To the original point of this post - yeah I kind of agree with you DD

I seem to be pretty darn high on Brooks compared to most. After the top 3 WRs, he should be the 4 pick in a 1QB league (unless you’re just enamored with Bowers).

[blemly]

To the original point of this post - yeah I kind of agree with you DD

I seem to be pretty darn high on Brooks compared to most. After the top 3 WRs, he should be the 4 pick in a 1QB league (unless you’re just enamored with Bowers).

100% endorse this. He’s my 4th guy off the board in 1QB and my 8th guy off the board in SF.

[stoneghost28]

I'm getting Penix in SF a lot. Got Nix in one too. I'm taking them all day over day 2 WR's and also Worthy and a few other late first guys, but you don't even have too. Penix has been consistently there between picks 12-15 in SF drafts. Picks 14 in 2 leagues, 15 in another.

I'm kinda bummed my superflex drafts are primarily in July and August, rather than June (only have 1 in June) or even earlier as I think the Penix valuation will just climb from where it was three weeks ago (early to mid/late 2nd) to the first round by the time I'm drafting. It isn't so much that I love the prospect. I expected him to go WAY lower with the medical red flags from his Indiana days and him being overage as hell, but he's still an attractive prospect that looks much better than any of the QB's other than maybe Howell from '22, and most of the guys likely to come out next year, so getting him with a 2nd would be a nice way to nail down some depth at QB w/o having to waste draft capital in a pile of land mines next year but I get the sense he's not gonna be available in the 2nd much longer .

As for the OP, I've seen Matt Kelley make the same point basically arguing "You're doing this wrong," if you take day 2 draft capital WR's and especially early day 3 guys over RB's like Benson, and Brooks....

I would tend to agree, especially if its a day 3 WR. Day 3 hit rates, particularly round 5 and later are flat out miniscule, none of the guys taken on day 2 have profiles analogous to guys who went on day 2 in the past like AJ Brown and DK Metcalf, they are all generally fit prospects who look like at best WR3's at the top end, so I get it. If guys fall that I like, I'll probably take them, otherwise I'm probably looking at QB, RB, and maybe 1 or 2 TE's. In general I've been moving my picks that are later, and some that are reasonably high in 1QB because I just don't like the RB class at all, and don't want to invest in guys I see too much like the '16 guys (other than Benson and Brooks and a few others). But I do agree w/the general premise, it's much better to either use the picks on rb's, QB's athletic te's, or trades for vets or future picks then to be prospecting for gem WR's in round 3, and 4 of rookie drafts and usually round 2 as well. Unless its some super attractive profile like Jayden Reed, McLaurin, which has some inherent value, or a narrative for success that makes sense, better to avoid WR's at that point.

For me this draft is basically a couple of tier 1 WR prospects, some great QB prospects, 2 rb's, a couple of TE's, and then a couple of WR's that I might take if the rb's and QB's are gone, and I can't move the pick for a vet or a future pick(s).

[stoneghost28]

This was the year to get QB's IMO... next year will be sparse, and the cost was very cheap this year. For me I grabbed some low-cost QB's and now have 4 NFL starting QB's in each league. If I could have done it over again I would have grabbed Penix or Nix at 2.05 in the second one instead of Pearsall.

My take on next year is that its a bit like 2023, if all the prospects were crappier, but still went inside the top 10-15. It's not 2022, and 2019 level ---. There could be as many as 3-4 that go first round and as many as 2-3 that go top 10-15, but they are uniformally worse prospects than Richardson, Young, Stroud, Williams, Maye, and Daniels, they are all kind of in that grouping of poor man's daniels, poor man's JJ, poor man's maye, but not like Haskins or Danny Nickels level garbage either. Reminds me a bit of 2016, 2018, and again, a worse '23.

The problem is, the floor of the guys is bust, practically across the board other than Sanders, while the ceilings, other than Sanders, read like average starter. This year, Williams, Daniels and Maye all could be top 10 guys pretty easy, none of next years seem like that other than maybe sanders if he can throw, to go with his running and stay healthy.

[stoneghost28]

Because this year is projected to be a deeper class at WR. Which increases the odds that the WRs picked in later rounds of this year's class will have a higher hit rate than prior years, due to being more talented.

Hmm, I like your theory, but is that actually the case? I’d be interested to see if more players selected in a particular round equates to a higher hit rate. My assumption would be no, but I’d like to see the data on that. You may be correct.

Edit: oh, you mean since there are so many good WRs, that pushes some good ones down into the later rounds. Interesting theory, but idk if that is true or not. Would like to see the data on that.

It's lazy, but man, during covid or thereabouts I went digging back 10 years to find hit rates on day 3, and it was nearly impossible to find guys like Diggs. The hit rate for guys, especially after round 4 at WR was so miniscule as to be utterly w/o purpose. You should not be taking WR's with 5th round or lower draft capital pretty much ever in rookie drafts, much better to spin that pick out for a future pick(s) or tackle another position. The hit rate collapses after round 4, almost completely. Considering I looked at around 10 or so drafts, the relative quality of the classes had negligable impact overall. Day 3 guys after round 4 just suck (and even round 4 guys have terrible hit rates too, its just orders of magnitude worse after round 4 than day 1 and day 2 guys).

[wickerkat1212]

Because this year is projected to be a deeper class at WR. Which increases the odds that the WRs picked in later rounds of this year's class will have a higher hit rate than prior years, due to being more talented.

Hmm, I like your theory, but is that actually the case? I’d be interested to see if more players selected in a particular round equates to a higher hit rate. My assumption would be no, but I’d like to see the data on that. You may be correct.

Edit: oh, you mean since there are so many good WRs, that pushes some good ones down into the later rounds. Interesting theory, but idk if that is true or not. Would like to see the data on that.

It's lazy, but man, during covid or thereabouts I went digging back 10 years to find hit rates on day 3, and it was nearly impossible to find guys like Diggs. The hit rate for guys, especially after round 4 at WR was so miniscule as to be utterly w/o purpose. You should not be taking WR's with 5th round or lower draft capital pretty much ever in rookie drafts, much better to spin that pick out for a future pick(s) or tackle another position. The hit rate collapses after round 4, almost completely. Considering I looked at around 10 or so drafts, the relative quality of the classes had negligable impact overall. Day 3 guys after round 4 just suck (and even round 4 guys have terrible hit rates too, its just orders of magnitude worse after round 4 than day 1 and day 2 guys).

True. So are you saying it's better off to take a flier on a RB/QB/TE in the 4th round of rookie drafts than a WR?

[stoneghost28]

This all day long. I regularly try to flip late 1sts this year for top half firsts the following. Many teams are eager for this year’s rookies, and those who are patient and willing to wait will reap the rewards.

The best is when you have a bunch of firsts. You can pick your guys… then most likely flip the later picks you don’t want to other teams at a value. Then rinse and repeat.

I've done that a couple of times already. The most frustrating deal and 2nd time I did it in a year, I think the same team, would need to double check, is that nobody in this one league makes their futures available for futures trading (because then they have to auto renew on that platform), so my option was, flip it to this guy that lost the title game, or keep all 8 rookie picks I acquired for my 24 man roster where I simply don't have the roster space to justify it. Even then, I moved the picks in a slight losing deal based on DLF's analyzer. i was willing to do it because I still have two firsts, 2 late 2nds, and a late 3rd , and thats more than what I want anyway, and I'd rather spin out the picks for value to add to trade offers in season or next draft.

At the end of the day I don't like this draft either especially in the late first zone, and would much prefer to either move up or move out with picks other than at the top of the draft, and at the end of the next tier in the midish/late second (I view picks in 1QB in mid 2nd as roughly equivalent in value to late 1sts due to tiering, similar with late 2nds to early 2nds and late 1sts in superflex) so for me, its move out or move down and out.

2nd time a draft has been like this in the past few years where there's a giant tier of similar value from the late 1st to the late 2nd.

[stoneghost28]

After the well know consensus top guys, it’s a massive tier of multiple guys. All seem they could hit or flame out. So for me, see no reason to be aggressive and trade up if not for one of the top consensus guys. Why give up assets when whoever falls has a decent shot to be just as good or better.

I just plan to take the values whatever that may be. People follow OPs advice soaking up the QBs, going strong RB, then I’ll take the WR values. Folks pound the WRs, I’ll gladly transition to RB.

To my mind, Brooks was the hidden value after the ACL injury, but since then he got the draft capital (but wrong team), and due to the rb class being trash, has risen from late 1st/turn pick into the top 6 or 7 of 1QB, and into round 1 of superflex, but he's still the value guy if you can get him if/when people reach for WR's other than the big 3 because his profile says he's every bit of a similar tier to the better RB's to come out the past four drafts. If healthy he'd have been a first half of round 1 pick in most of the classes going back to 2018. Not quite the Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, Etienne, Bijan kind of thing maybe, but right around the Etienne/Swift/Dobbins area for sure.

If he drops into the middle of that second WR tier he's a steal, but other than him, there aren't any steals unless you hit a home run on Sinott, Benson, Penix, JJ delivering way beyond projection.

I think that's why people tend to be skeptics, after the big 3 WR's, there's only 2 non-QB's left that have outsized projection possibilities of elite payoff, and Bowers got drafted into one of the worst situations imaginable (no QB and they already drafted an elite TE prospect), and Brooks...so its a bummer.

The WR depth talk I think is more a product of the fact that there are a ton of guys w/that kind of 20th-70th overall in a real NFL draft talent in this group but very very few of them have alpha dog profiles that project to being #1 options (maybe Worthy, maybe Brian Thomas but that's probably it, and Thomas has an exceptionally low floor risk).

[stoneghost28]

A leaguemate was on the clock at 1.2. I offered him ETN for the pick (single QB league). He declines & stated that the 1.2 pick was worth more. He then drafted Brooks

I had the 1.3 so I was good with it.

I can cosign, nobody, anywhere seems to value Etienne where he's valued based on production, and even in startups (I have a similar problem with DJ Moore, which ended up funny as I got lectured by a guy in 1 league about how --- DJ Moore was now going into his '23 season, and he wanted no part of him). Some guys you just have to keep if the market hates him regardless of productivity level, Etienne kind of seems like that, though I'm like Menudo's management when it comes to the rb age cliff.

[stoneghost28]

Is anyone else combining picks to try and get into the T8 of this draft or move out completely? I’m enamored with MHJ, Nabers, and Williams and have them in a SF tier of their own. After that I like Daniels, Maye and Odunze in the following tier. Once those 6 guys are gone, I’m happy taking JJM or Brooks or just punting to next year.

Don't leave out Bowers, and I'd probably add Thomas. But yes, that's where it falls off the first cliff IMO.

Probably my greatest frustration is that 4 of my 6 superflex leagues featured runs to the title game, so all of those picks are outside the bluechip zone beyond my two dumpser fire teams (one was an RSO tear down after I missed the FA auction portion, long story, the other was a league where I've contained all my errors over the past four years practically to that league's squad lol). So basically I've got a bunch of 1.09's and 1.10's in SF. I've been trying to move up and did so to the 1.02 in one of those leagues (and now I'm trying to move down lol as the board reshuffles post combine and draft, but still can't get the move done), but the other 3 leagues have been impossible to move in. Quite frustrating.

I think people do disagree a little on the edges but in general there's a sentiment that there are 3 QB's, 3 WR's and Bowers, then after them, unless you're targeting Brooks, there's a big fall off to the next group. What's changed that a bit has been Brooks growing value, and that of JJ landing in the dream spot, so for some, there's a 1.09 now. I'd also argue that there's another tier drop off once those two RB's and 2-3 last QB's go as well, because then its just the WR lottery, and the next rather flat tier of RB's and TE's. For me there's a top 8 to 9, and then another 5, and then the bottom falls out to a tier significantly lower (which is why I love have 3 top 13 picks in that one SF league, and hate having the 2.04/2.05/2.09 in a 12 teamer where I could be SOL on 2 2 of my 3 second rounders in RSO).

[stoneghost28]

I'm infatuated with Brian Thomas Jr. Recognizing his profile isn't a can't miss one, but was sky high on him before he went to my team, so think in 1QB the top 4 are locked in for me. I play mostly 14-16 team leagues, so 5 is really when CW, Bowers, and Brooks come into play for me.

Obviously in a 12 or fewer team 1QB league CW doesn't necessarily need to go that early.

Does that mean you have Thomas over Bowers?

I like what Thomas did last year, but as a top recruit, to face plant his first two years is really alarming. I think he's one of the handful of guys after the big 3 WR's who could become mega elite (him and Worthy), but I am probably not going to get him anywhere because the breakout age # is such a concern there's no chance I'd take him over the big 3 WR's, and the two rb's and Bowers.