2024 Rookie Draft Strategies

[JTLoh]

with awesome scoring parameters developed by FantasyFreak......

Dude.

[Menace2010]

Wondering what everyone’s strategy to attacking their rookie drafts is this year. I feel like everyone is doing it wrong, and I’m wondering if I’m the crazy one or if everyone else is crazy.

My strategy has been to avoid the non-top-3 WRs, in favor of the QBs, RBs, and TEs (well, Sinnott specifically). My reasoning is this.

The hit rate for non-top-10 WRs drafted in the first round is only 24% to get a difference making WR. The hit rate for 2nd round WRs is 14% and 3rd round WRs is 12%.

Now compare that to 1st round QBs in which a franchise QB hit rate is roughly 43% from eyeballing the last 10-15 years worth of QBs.

The hit rate for a random 2nd round RB to get a 1k yard rushing season is about 46%. For 3rd round rbs it’s about 24%. Trey Benson will be a Tier1 RB in my rookie rb report which bumps up his odds to around 50%.

Ok, so all that said. Why are we drafting non-top-10 WRs whose hit rate is only 12-24%, over QBs and RBs whose hit rates are DOUBLE that.

Why are we drafting 2nd round WRs in the late-1st when WRs with similar hit rates (3rd round WRs) are available in the 3rd round of rookie drafts. Why not draft QBs and RBs early and then draft the WRs late? Wouldn’t that make more sense?

So how early would you feel comfortable grabbing Brooks? We talking 1.09 in Superflex? 1.04 in 1QB?

[wickerkat1212]

I'm seeing him go anywhere from 4-10.

1 QB #4—RB premium (we start a MINIMUM of three RBs) he went 1.04
Superflex #1—went 1.07
Superflex #2—went 1.10

So, take the pulse of your league and draft accordingly. IN SF I like him after the top eight go. In 1 QB—a few spots earlier. I think it's fine to "reach" if you need a RB and are set at QB/WR. Also depends on SF/1QB.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Wondering what everyone’s strategy to attacking their rookie drafts is this year. I feel like everyone is doing it wrong, and I’m wondering if I’m the crazy one or if everyone else is crazy.

My strategy has been to avoid the non-top-3 WRs, in favor of the QBs, RBs, and TEs (well, Sinnott specifically). My reasoning is this.

The hit rate for non-top-10 WRs drafted in the first round is only 24% to get a difference making WR. The hit rate for 2nd round WRs is 14% and 3rd round WRs is 12%.

Now compare that to 1st round QBs in which a franchise QB hit rate is roughly 43% from eyeballing the last 10-15 years worth of QBs.

The hit rate for a random 2nd round RB to get a 1k yard rushing season is about 46%. For 3rd round rbs it’s about 24%. Trey Benson will be a Tier1 RB in my rookie rb report which bumps up his odds to around 50%.

Ok, so all that said. Why are we drafting non-top-10 WRs whose hit rate is only 12-24%, over QBs and RBs whose hit rates are DOUBLE that.

Why are we drafting 2nd round WRs in the late-1st when WRs with similar hit rates (3rd round WRs) are available in the 3rd round of rookie drafts. Why not draft QBs and RBs early and then draft the WRs late? Wouldn’t that make more sense?

So how early would you feel comfortable grabbing Brooks? We talking 1.09 in Superflex? 1.04 in 1QB?

For me personally I'm grabbing Benson. But in general, yeah, I'd say starting at 1.08/1.09 in SF is an acceptable place to start grabbing an RB (I'm not as convinced on JJMC as others are). Well, I'd try to trade back, but if forced to, I wouldn't mind it. Brooks, Benson, Penix are all values to me, if I had no immediate need I'd just try to trade back and take the last of those 3. In non-SF, 1.04/1.05.

[wickerkat1212]

Wondering what everyone’s strategy to attacking their rookie drafts is this year. I feel like everyone is doing it wrong, and I’m wondering if I’m the crazy one or if everyone else is crazy.

My strategy has been to avoid the non-top-3 WRs, in favor of the QBs, RBs, and TEs (well, Sinnott specifically). My reasoning is this.

The hit rate for non-top-10 WRs drafted in the first round is only 24% to get a difference making WR. The hit rate for 2nd round WRs is 14% and 3rd round WRs is 12%.

Now compare that to 1st round QBs in which a franchise QB hit rate is roughly 43% from eyeballing the last 10-15 years worth of QBs.

The hit rate for a random 2nd round RB to get a 1k yard rushing season is about 46%. For 3rd round rbs it’s about 24%. Trey Benson will be a Tier1 RB in my rookie rb report which bumps up his odds to around 50%.

Ok, so all that said. Why are we drafting non-top-10 WRs whose hit rate is only 12-24%, over QBs and RBs whose hit rates are DOUBLE that.

Why are we drafting 2nd round WRs in the late-1st when WRs with similar hit rates (3rd round WRs) are available in the 3rd round of rookie drafts. Why not draft QBs and RBs early and then draft the WRs late? Wouldn’t that make more sense?

So how early would you feel comfortable grabbing Brooks? We talking 1.09 in Superflex? 1.04 in 1QB?

For me personally I'm grabbing Benson. But in general, yeah, I'd say starting at 1.08/1.09 in SF is an acceptable place to start grabbing an RB (I'm not as convinced on JJMC as others are). Well, I'd try to trade back, but if forced to, I wouldn't mind it. Brooks, Benson, Penix are all values to me, if I had no immediate need I'd just try to trade back and take the last of those 3. In non-SF, 1.04/1.05.

Good to hear. I traded 2025 1st and the 2.09 pick to get the 1.10 to draft Benson. I have Conner. This is in a RB-premium league and I really liked this move, so nice to hear you like Benson.

[Menace2010]

I'm infatuated with Brian Thomas Jr. Recognizing his profile isn't a can't miss one, but was sky high on him before he went to my team, so think in 1QB the top 4 are locked in for me. I play mostly 14-16 team leagues, so 5 is really when CW, Bowers, and Brooks come into play for me.

Obviously in a 12 or fewer team 1QB league CW doesn't necessarily need to go that early.

[blemly]

Wondering what everyone’s strategy to attacking their rookie drafts is this year. I feel like everyone is doing it wrong, and I’m wondering if I’m the crazy one or if everyone else is crazy.

My strategy has been to avoid the non-top-3 WRs, in favor of the QBs, RBs, and TEs (well, Sinnott specifically). My reasoning is this.

The hit rate for non-top-10 WRs drafted in the first round is only 24% to get a difference making WR. The hit rate for 2nd round WRs is 14% and 3rd round WRs is 12%.

Now compare that to 1st round QBs in which a franchise QB hit rate is roughly 43% from eyeballing the last 10-15 years worth of QBs.

The hit rate for a random 2nd round RB to get a 1k yard rushing season is about 46%. For 3rd round rbs it’s about 24%. Trey Benson will be a Tier1 RB in my rookie rb report which bumps up his odds to around 50%.

Ok, so all that said. Why are we drafting non-top-10 WRs whose hit rate is only 12-24%, over QBs and RBs whose hit rates are DOUBLE that.

Why are we drafting 2nd round WRs in the late-1st when WRs with similar hit rates (3rd round WRs) are available in the 3rd round of rookie drafts. Why not draft QBs and RBs early and then draft the WRs late? Wouldn’t that make more sense?

So how early would you feel comfortable grabbing Brooks? We talking 1.09 in Superflex? 1.04 in 1QB?

For me personally I'm grabbing Benson. But in general, yeah, I'd say starting at 1.08/1.09 in SF is an acceptable place to start grabbing an RB (I'm not as convinced on JJMC as others are). Well, I'd try to trade back, but if forced to, I wouldn't mind it. Brooks, Benson, Penix are all values to me, if I had no immediate need I'd just try to trade back and take the last of those 3. In non-SF, 1.04/1.05.

In a standard non-TEP SF league I’m taking Brooks after:

- Williams
- MHJ
- Nabers
- Daniels
- Odunze
- Maye
- JJM

So 1.08. Benson I would take a bit later, but can’t fault anyone for going Benson over the swath of end of round 1/early round 2 WR.

[FantasyFreak]

with awesome scoring parameters developed by FantasyFreak......

Dude.

Yes?

[jordanzs]

with awesome scoring parameters developed by FantasyFreak......

Dude.

Yes?

Evolution in fantasy football is there who those who want to embrace it.

Did anyone play back in the TD only days? I didn’t but when i started, PPR wasn’t really a thing yet

[RCogburn]

I did. League started in 1988 and is still going. Some of the kids of the original owners now have teams too. No internet and the commissioner would go through the Monday paper to figure the scoring. Had to call him to get the final scores.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

I couldn't do it. I had to take BTJ. He was just too tantalising to pass up.

[jordanzs]

I did. League started in 1988 and is still going. Some of the kids of the original owners now have teams too. No internet and the commissioner would go through the Monday paper to figure the scoring. Had to call him to get the final scores.

That’s awesome. Much respect to you OG fantasy veterans who had to score everything manually. Must have been rad to have Niners on your team back then

[repkllrs]

I did. League started in 1988 and is still going. Some of the kids of the original owners now have teams too. No internet and the commissioner would go through the Monday paper to figure the scoring. Had to call him to get the final scores.

That’s awesome. Much respect to you OG fantasy veterans who had to score everything manually. Must have been rad to have Niners on your team back then

Stat changes on Wednesday were fun too.

[cazzie33]

I did. League started in 1988 and is still going. Some of the kids of the original owners now have teams too. No internet and the commissioner would go through the Monday paper to figure the scoring. Had to call him to get the final scores.

That’s awesome. Much respect to you OG fantasy veterans who had to score everything manually. Must have been rad to have Niners on your team back then

Stat changes on Wednesday were fun too.

Lost in the semis one year on a stat correction for Hakeem Nicks ... Brutal as had best team score for finals week

Our league The War Room started in '86. Man did we miss out not capitalizing on doing startup/ setup for fantasy football. We'd been doing baseball for a cpl years before that so just adapted the format to football using almost what is the foundation categories still used today. Only thing we didn't do was subtract for fumbles & interceptions

Back on topic it will be interesting to see where leagues will actually draft the Penix potential vs getting an earlier contributor. Especially in lgs without practice/ taxi squad stashing

[Pac_Eddy]

Did anyone play back in the TD only days? I didn’t but when i started, PPR wasn’t really a thing yet

My first league was like that. I believe it was 1998. When I brought up the idea of including passing, rushing & receiving yards, I was brutally scolded. The commissioner said that our scores wouldn't look like real NFL game scores anymore.

That set me on the path to create my own league.