2024 Rookie Draft Strategies

[Shcritters]

I primarily play in 14 team SF dynasty leagues. In those leagues I have 13 first round graded players, but I'm not really interested in trading up unless someone significantly falls. I'm primarily looking to move back or out entirely. I think there are lots of players that I think have a chance of improving their value between now and start of the regular season so I'm grabbing those guys in the late 2nd and third.

I have 2 shares of Penix because in both cases I had the roster space to wait for him, and in a 14 team SF I'm going to draft a top 10 NFL drafted QB that had rumors of being targets by other teams. In leagues like my 12 team FFPC dynasty leagues (play like a large keeper league) I have zero interest in Penix.

I have only 1 first round RB (brooks) and only 1 first round TE (Bowers). The other first round graded players are 6 QBs (Caleb, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Penix, Nix) and 5 WRs (MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, Worthy, BTJ), generally at least 2-3 of these guys are making it to the second round but I'm not getting enough of a discount to move up from later in the 2nd, so I'm primarily looking at moving back.

I think that the drop between Caleb and the other top 2 qbs (Daniels and Maye) is a lot less than the drop off between Maye and McCarthy. Penix I would have higher than McCarthy if I was sure he would play this year or even next year. Nix I have as basically the guy I'll draft because he was drafted in the first 15 and is a QB. I don't think he's going to succeed but he has a better chance at a more impactful position than other players.

I have about 14-15 guys with second round grades. these are players I hope will either (1) develop into a flex player or (2) someone that I can flip in the next 2 years for a first rounder. I think there are several RBs in this range but no QBs or TEs. Its definitely RB and WR heavy.

I'm happy to flip my late first for 25 firsts to teams that are not legit championship contenders.

For team #3 in signature, day of draft I actually moved my 25 1st for the 1.12 (I'm back to back defending champ, I should be a top 3 team this year, so I'm trading the 1.12 in 2025 for the 1.12 in 2024). On the clock Worthy was still there (and someone else, but don't remember who), I ended up just flipping the pick for someone else's 2025 1st (a bottom half team). As long as I do better than them this season its a net win anyways, but I just saw no reason to go with Worthy when I can move it to potentially a better pick next year.


Honestly the biggest thing I'm seeing this year, in 14 team SF leagues (again i'm in 4 of those) Penix and Nix are highly undervalued and someone in the early 2nd is possibly gaining a huge asset in a year or so.

This all day long. I regularly try to flip late 1sts this year for top half firsts the following. Many teams are eager for this year’s rookies, and those who are patient and willing to wait will reap the rewards.

The best is when you have a bunch of firsts. You can pick your guys… then most likely flip the later picks you don’t want to other teams at a value. Then rinse and repeat.

[thunderTung]

I have the 1.02, which will be Nabers.

I also have the 1.07 where things get a lil more tricky. Ideally I’d like to be able to pick up bowers here and then move either Schultz or Goedert for another 2nd to grab my homer pick (Maye)

If bowers isn’t there I’ll be stuck between Ladd and Brooks who I both really like, that could be a coin flip. Could use the depth either way we’ll see where the board ends up falling

[natjjohn]

After the well know consensus top guys, it’s a massive tier of multiple guys. All seem they could hit or flame out. So for me, see no reason to be aggressive and trade up if not for one of the top consensus guys. Why give up assets when whoever falls has a decent shot to be just as good or better.

I just plan to take the values whatever that may be. People follow OPs advice soaking up the QBs, going strong RB, then I’ll take the WR values. Folks pound the WRs, I’ll gladly transition to RB.

[wickerkat1212]

Great conversation here. Here is how my drafts have gone down so far—

New Superflex TEP

1.02 Harrison WR
1.06 Maye QB
1.11 BThomas WR
2.02 Penix QB

Knew Harrison would fall to me, was surprised at Maye, as Bowers went 1.04, happy with Thomas at 11, and Penix at 2.02 (I own Cousins). So in this league, I subscribed to the "chalk" picks and QBs.

Superflex #1

3.09 (33) Rattler QB
3.10 (34) Sanders TE
3.11 (35) Cowing WR
3.12 (36) Estime RB
4.10 (46) MWashington WR

In this one I only had later picks, so it was a mix of WTH flier on Rattler, Sanders a TE I like a lot in a pretty good spot, Cowing as one of those WR in that mix of later WR picks, Estime I like a lot here, DEN likes him a lot and then Washington a total late flier with a tough path to mattering, but talent.

So one SF went one way, one went the other. I AM looking at more RBs in my drafts later, but just haven't gotten lucky on my picks.

[Jigga94]

With the talk about hit rates changing dependant on how many WRs are drafted in what rounds. I remember looking up several years ago and tracking the hits and misses of I think round 1 receivers. And I’d have to go back and double check, but I remember it being a cyclical type of deal, in which for a year or two, the WRs would hit at an above average rate. Following that, more WRs were drafted in the 1st, and then the bust rate would actually increase. I remember thinking at the time that nfl GMs probably saw the 1st round wr hits, wanted in on the action, and overdrafted WRs the following year(s). Then there’d be a high rate of busts, and then less wrs drafted in the 1st round, as teams saw the busts, until some hit again, then more in the following years, etc etc… I’d have to go back and find the data on that but I think I’m remembering correctly. I’d argue the wr hit rates these past few years have felt high (haven’t checked the data but it certainly feels that way).

I think there could be merit to thinking since there are more highly drafted WRs in this class that there will be more good WRs total, and that might be true, but it might also be true that the hit rate actually goes down for this class, even if the raw number of “good” WRs goes up.

Also, I remember looking up teams that drafted WRs with similar draft capital in back to back years, if that increased the hit rate or not. I remember I was interested because Philly drafted Reagor right after they drafted JJAWS. From what I found it didn’t really seem to have an impact on if the team “learned its lesson” and thus doing a better job drafting the 2nd wr. The hit rates didn’t seem to change much if at all from what I remember.

I vaguely remember the hit rates of rd 1 WR being worse in years where 5+ were drafted versus 2 or 3. Could be for a multitude of reasons though.

I think it was one of your original 1k yard threads before the YPG thread took over. At least 3 or 4 years ago

[moishetreats]

I'll set my board, fall in love with a few guys and hope they slide to me. I'll also blow on the dice and pray to the fantasy football gods.

If all goes well. And how can it not. I will print up an A+ FF draft grade flag and fly it proudly.

Probably the most honest answer here ever!

[Shcritters]

I'll set my board, fall in love with a few guys and hope they slide to me. I'll also blow on the dice and pray to the fantasy football gods.

If all goes well. And how can it not. I will print up an A+ FF draft grade flag and fly it proudly.

Probably the most honest answer here ever!

We all have A+ draft grades for ourselves after the draft. Once the season starts if when we find out how we really did

[Dynasty DeLorean]

With the talk about hit rates changing dependant on how many WRs are drafted in what rounds. I remember looking up several years ago and tracking the hits and misses of I think round 1 receivers. And I’d have to go back and double check, but I remember it being a cyclical type of deal, in which for a year or two, the WRs would hit at an above average rate. Following that, more WRs were drafted in the 1st, and then the bust rate would actually increase. I remember thinking at the time that nfl GMs probably saw the 1st round wr hits, wanted in on the action, and overdrafted WRs the following year(s). Then there’d be a high rate of busts, and then less wrs drafted in the 1st round, as teams saw the busts, until some hit again, then more in the following years, etc etc… I’d have to go back and find the data on that but I think I’m remembering correctly. I’d argue the wr hit rates these past few years have felt high (haven’t checked the data but it certainly feels that way).

I think there could be merit to thinking since there are more highly drafted WRs in this class that there will be more good WRs total, and that might be true, but it might also be true that the hit rate actually goes down for this class, even if the raw number of “good” WRs goes up.

Also, I remember looking up teams that drafted WRs with similar draft capital in back to back years, if that increased the hit rate or not. I remember I was interested because Philly drafted Reagor right after they drafted JJAWS. From what I found it didn’t really seem to have an impact on if the team “learned its lesson” and thus doing a better job drafting the 2nd wr. The hit rates didn’t seem to change much if at all from what I remember.

I vaguely remember the hit rates of rd 1 WR being worse in years where 5+ were drafted versus 2 or 3. Could be for a multitude of reasons though.

I think it was one of your original 1k yard threads before the YPG thread took over. At least 3 or 4 years ago

Found it viewtopic.php?p=1430788#p1430788

I did a little research on WR's taken in the 1st round of NFL drafts. I defined a "hit" as a WR having 2+ 1,000 yard receiving seasons.

- Only 24 of 66 WR's drafted from 1998-2015 were considered hits, so about a 36% hit rate on average of getting what we would deem a valuable WR over multiple seasons.
- The worst 3-year stretch during that span was 3 out of 13 for a 23% hit rate. (Edit: there is a 3 of 14 stretch for 21%, nonetheless)
- The recent receiving classes (2015-2017) have only given us 1 hit (Cooper) in 13 so far for an 8% hit rate.

As you can see the recent hit rates are not normal (as to be expected as not much time has passed), and while possible it seems unlikely the 7-8% hit rate will stand the test of time. If we are to assume things will trend back to the mean, that means an additional 2-4 more WR's aside from Cooper will be hits from the 2015-2017 draft classes (resulting in a hit rate of anywhere between 23%-38%). I know it's easy to simply write them all off as busts but odds are at least 2 of them will gain a lot of value soon. I'd probably choose Parker, Doctson, and Davis... just always liked them as players. I'm curious though, who are YOUR picks to bust out of the slump?

• Kevin White
  DeVante Parker
  Nelson Agholor
  Breshad Perriman
  Phillip Dorsett
  Corey Coleman
  Will Fuller
  Josh Doctson
  Laquon Treadwell
  Corey Davis
  Mike Williams
  John Ross

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1998 – 1 of 3 (Moss)
1999 – 2 of 3 (Holt and Boston)
2000 – 1 of 5 (Burress)
2001 – 2 of 6 (Santana Moss and Wayne)
2002 – 1 of 3 (Javon Walker)
2003 – 1 of 3 (Andre Johnson)
2004 – 2 of 7 (Lee Evans, Larry Fitzgerald)
2005 – 1 of 6 (Roddy White)
2006 – 0 for 1
2007 – 2 for 6 (Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe)
2008 – None drafted in the 1st
2009 – 3 of 6 (Crabtree, Maclin, Nicks)
2010 – 2 for 2 (DT, Dez)
2011 – 2 for 3 (AJG, Julio)
2012 – 0 for 4
2013 – 1 for 3 (Hopkins)
2014 – 3 for 5 (Evans, OBJ, Cooks)

It's very possible I messed up somewhere

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[BigJoeWall72]

What format are we talking about? In 1QB, it just doesn't make much sense to draft QBs over WRs, especially if it's full PPR and passing touchdowns aren't scored high.

Sorry, SF of course. But even in 1QB, Brooks and benson should be going much higher

"SF of course"??? There is an entire forum dedicated to Superflex... This is not directed solely at you DD, but I just don't get why SF seems to be becoming the default on *this* sub-forum when there is a whole separate sub-forum for that format.

Otherwise, I agree with you logic, and I think as the summer goes on the top 3-4 RBs will move higher and higher in ADP and likely end up solidly in the top-18.

[wickerkat1212]

I think we can do both. We can look at where the dropoff is, for tier one, and maybe tier two. There are about seven guys I really like in SF and then it drops off. AND/OR later in the draft we can take fliers on this deep WR class with a lot of flawed players and see if taking 2-4 dart throws with those guys is better than one. So I'm mixing it up and taking shots, but also getting my guys when I can.

[abloom]

What format are we talking about? In 1QB, it just doesn't make much sense to draft QBs over WRs, especially if it's full PPR and passing touchdowns aren't scored high.

Sorry, SF of course. But even in 1QB, Brooks and benson should be going much higher

"SF of course"??? There is an entire forum dedicated to Superflex... This is not directed solely at you DD, but I just don't get why SF seems to be becoming the default on *this* sub-forum when there is a whole separate sub-forum for that format.

Otherwise, I agree with you logic, and I think as the summer goes on the top 3-4 RBs will move higher and higher in ADP and likely end up solidly in the top-18.

Because SF is becoming the more popular dynasty format and because there is more activity here. The "of course" comment likely refers to that being the format you would draft QBs over WRs.

[Jigga94]

Sorry, SF of course. But even in 1QB, Brooks and benson should be going much higher

"SF of course"??? There is an entire forum dedicated to Superflex... This is not directed solely at you DD, but I just don't get why SF seems to be becoming the default on *this* sub-forum when there is a whole separate sub-forum for that format.

Otherwise, I agree with you logic, and I think as the summer goes on the top 3-4 RBs will move higher and higher in ADP and likely end up solidly in the top-18.

Because SF is becoming the more popular dynasty format and because there is more activity here. The "of course" comment likely refers to that being the format you would draft QBs over WRs.

Superflex is the default format now and has been for 5+ years probably. Get with the times baseball dude

[abloom]

"SF of course"??? There is an entire forum dedicated to Superflex... This is not directed solely at you DD, but I just don't get why SF seems to be becoming the default on *this* sub-forum when there is a whole separate sub-forum for that format.

Otherwise, I agree with you logic, and I think as the summer goes on the top 3-4 RBs will move higher and higher in ADP and likely end up solidly in the top-18.

Because SF is becoming the more popular dynasty format and because there is more activity here. The "of course" comment likely refers to that being the format you would draft QBs over WRs.

Superflex is the default format now and has been for 5+ years probably. Get with the times baseball dude

I like how standard is no longer standard anymore.

[Jigga94]

Because SF is becoming the more popular dynasty format and because there is more activity here. The "of course" comment likely refers to that being the format you would draft QBs over WRs.

Superflex is the default format now and has been for 5+ years probably. Get with the times baseball dude

I like how standard is no longer standard anymore.

Yup. 1 QB 0 PPR is a way of the past.

SF TEP 1.5 PPR is the new norm

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Because SF is becoming the more popular dynasty format and because there is more activity here. The "of course" comment likely refers to that being the format you would draft QBs over WRs.

Superflex is the default format now and has been for 5+ years probably. Get with the times baseball dude

I like how standard is no longer standard anymore.

Standard, more like substandard! Amiright guys!?!