Way, way, waaaay too early 2023 Draft class thread

[murphysxm]

From a fantasy standpoint I’d much rather have Richardson than Levis. Especially if he gets top 10 draft capital.

If Richardson gets drafted early and it happens to be by Sean Payton (assuming he does coach this year) his fantasy draft stock is going to skyrocket.

I really hope this is a true statement. I see no path to Richardson developing into an NFL caliber QB. He is going to burn a lot of high dynasty picks, regardless of draft capital.

[Bronco Billy]

I think Richardson is closer to a Josh Allen pie-in-the-sky outcome.

And frankly, I'm starting to think I'd rather have Richardson than Levis. I could see Richardson becoming what people thought Trey Lance's upside is.

Levis right now has shown a lot more talent as a passer than Richardson. Richardson is such a mess passing the ball. Levis does remind me of Josh Allen. He has a huge fundamental flaw that has to be corrected in order to succeed at the next level. His feet move way too much, so that he fails to establish a sound platform as he is throwing the football.

When he sets his base and then throws he is very effective, can throw into tight windows, and places the ball very nicely. The problem is that he isn’t stepping into his throws often and instead is shifting his feet in his throwing motion right through his release. It really affects where to ball goes significantly, even though when he does this he still can put the ball in a catchable envelope enough, even though poorly placed, that apparently no one has tried to correct it. And when he throws off his heels - whoa Nelly, the ball can go anywhere.

He is going to have to fix that problem. Allen did and became a much more effective passer. Levis just needs to slow down a little and establish that base in the pocket and as he is rolling and he ought to do fine. The question is can someone get him to do it?

[Cameron Giles]

From a fantasy standpoint I’d much rather have Richardson than Levis. Especially if he gets top 10 draft capital.

If Richardson gets drafted early and it happens to be by Sean Payton (assuming he does coach this year) his fantasy draft stock is going to skyrocket.

I really hope this is a true statement. I see no path to Richardson developing into an NFL caliber QB. He is going to burn a lot of high dynasty picks, regardless of draft capital.

I could see a bunch of scenarios where Richardson becomes a quality starting QB.

[wickerkat1212]

I keep hearing Levis being tall with a strong arm. Allen was a bit rough coming out. IDK. Just asking.

[Lumps]

I fully admit I’ve been a Levis hater for real life football. Fantasy, who knows.

I will be interested to see what the NFL does/thinks. It was shocking to me when he first started being mocked so highly. Couldn’t beat out Sean Clifford at PSU (take that for what you will, I have heard complaints about coaching etc.). He’s older. He still didn’t do a hell of a lot after transferring.

I think the NFL does some of the same things we are guilty of as a fantasy community. Thinks that player X worked out, so new shiny player Y can too! *To a much lesser degree than we do. Remember when every white slot player had Welker/Edelman range of outcomes?

How about when Willis was being mocked in the high 1st last off season? Rusher, cannon for an arm, needs refinement. Is Levis, in fact Willis or Allen? Probably neither.

It really feels like folks are glossing over (HEAVILY…maybe it’s more like white out…I don’t know where I’m going with this ) just how many things went Allen’s way, how vastly he improved, and how that wasn’t exactly the expectation out of him. Or how much Daboll may have had a massive impact on him. Just look at how much more productive Daniel Jones was with him. Or the massive improvement Doug Peterson got out of Lawerence after dealing with Meyer.

Could he be a big time player? Maybe if he lands with a QB guru that can improve and unlock him. But I really think everyone needs to slow down on comparisons to players who achieved 1000x what anyone thought of them.

[Bronco Billy]

I fully admit I’ve been a Levis hater for real life football. Fantasy, who knows.

I will be interested to see what the NFL does/thinks. It was shocking to me when he first started being mocked so highly. Couldn’t beat out Sean Clifford at PSU (take that for what you will, I have heard complaints about coaching etc.). He’s older. He still didn’t do a hell of a lot after transferring.

I think the NFL does some of the same things we are guilty of as a fantasy community. Thinks that player X worked out, so new shiny player Y can too! *To a much lesser degree than we do. Remember when every white slot player had Welker/Edelman range of outcomes?

How about when Willis was being mocked in the high 1st last off season? Rusher, cannon for an arm, needs refinement. Is Levis, in fact Willis or Allen? Probably neither.

It really feels like folks are glossing over (HEAVILY…maybe it’s more like white out…I don’t know where I’m going with this ) just how many things went Allen’s way, how vastly he improved, and how that wasn’t exactly the expectation out of him. Or how much Daboll may have had a massive impact on him. Just look at how much more productive Daniel Jones was with him. Or the massive improvement Doug Peterson got out of Lawerence after dealing with Meyer.

Could he be a big time player? Maybe if he lands with a QB guru that can improve and unlock him. But I really think everyone needs to slow down on comparisons to players who achieved 1000x what anyone thought of them.

Good observations, most especially IMO on Daboll’s impact. There are not a lot of NFL coaches who can mold players from the ground up. Most expect and need a more refined product to work with. You really need someone who is a bonafide teacher.

[ericanadian]

I fully admit I’ve been a Levis hater for real life football. Fantasy, who knows.

I will be interested to see what the NFL does/thinks. It was shocking to me when he first started being mocked so highly. Couldn’t beat out Sean Clifford at PSU (take that for what you will, I have heard complaints about coaching etc.). He’s older. He still didn’t do a hell of a lot after transferring.

I think the NFL does some of the same things we are guilty of as a fantasy community. Thinks that player X worked out, so new shiny player Y can too! *To a much lesser degree than we do. Remember when every white slot player had Welker/Edelman range of outcomes?

How about when Willis was being mocked in the high 1st last off season? Rusher, cannon for an arm, needs refinement. Is Levis, in fact Willis or Allen? Probably neither.

It really feels like folks are glossing over (HEAVILY…maybe it’s more like white out…I don’t know where I’m going with this ) just how many things went Allen’s way, how vastly he improved, and how that wasn’t exactly the expectation out of him. Or how much Daboll may have had a massive impact on him. Just look at how much more productive Daniel Jones was with him. Or the massive improvement Doug Peterson got out of Lawerence after dealing with Meyer.

Could he be a big time player? Maybe if he lands with a QB guru that can improve and unlock him. But I really think everyone needs to slow down on comparisons to players who achieved 1000x what anyone thought of them.

The argument that he didnt do much post transfer doesn’t totally hold up for me. His first season there, he was a massive improvement on what Kentucky had gotten out of the QB position in prior years with the same coach. I don’t think Kentucky was getting especially bad QB recruits prior to him. My guess is they were mostly average, so near tripling their production means something.

As for Daboll. he did a lot with that offense, but I don’t see the massive improvement from a statistical point of view. He really limited the interceptions and had Jones take a much more conservative approach as a passer and a much more aggressive approach as a rusher. Allen’s shift was way more dramatic.

[kmbryant09]

I see no path to Richardson developing into an NFL caliber QB.

This is a really bad take to have on pretty much anything related to football, fantasy football, dynasty, or evaluating prospects.

[lic217]

I see no path to Richardson developing into an NFL caliber QB.

This is a really bad take to have on pretty much anything related to football, fantasy football, dynasty, or evaluating prospects.

I’m not really sure I agree with your statement. Basically the previous person was saying they think Richardson has a 0% probability of becoming a good player. I have no problem with that opinion. I’ve had that opinion before about players, and I have been proven correct, and I’ve also been proven wrong. I am in the camp that Richardson is never going to be a good quarterback, but I’ve been wrong plenty of times before. On the other hand, there’s some players where I see 100% chance of them being successful. They are usually pretty good, but not always. One player that comes to mind immediately is Corey Davis. I thought he was a can’t miss top 15 wide receiver in the NFL. Josh Allen, I thought had maybe a 10% chance of success in the NFL and look how good he’s doing. N’Keal Harry was a guy that I thought would never be a good NFL wide receiver and I did not see a path for being successful with his lack of separation skills. Was right on that one. Point I’m trying to make is we all are going to have our opinions and we are all going to be right or wrong. There are some guys that will never be successful in the NFL no matter what. And there’s plenty of guys that are gonna be successful no matter what.

[FantasyFreak]

I fully admit I’ve been a Levis hater for real life football. Fantasy, who knows.

I will be interested to see what the NFL does/thinks. It was shocking to me when he first started being mocked so highly. Couldn’t beat out Sean Clifford at PSU (take that for what you will, I have heard complaints about coaching etc.). He’s older. He still didn’t do a hell of a lot after transferring.

I think the NFL does some of the same things we are guilty of as a fantasy community. Thinks that player X worked out, so new shiny player Y can too! *To a much lesser degree than we do. Remember when every white slot player had Welker/Edelman range of outcomes?

How about when Willis was being mocked in the high 1st last off season? Rusher, cannon for an arm, needs refinement. Is Levis, in fact Willis or Allen? Probably neither.

It really feels like folks are glossing over (HEAVILY…maybe it’s more like white out…I don’t know where I’m going with this ) just how many things went Allen’s way, how vastly he improved, and how that wasn’t exactly the expectation out of him. Or how much Daboll may have had a massive impact on him. Just look at how much more productive Daniel Jones was with him. Or the massive improvement Doug Peterson got out of Lawerence after dealing with Meyer.

Could he be a big time player? Maybe if he lands with a QB guru that can improve and unlock him. But I really think everyone needs to slow down on comparisons to players who achieved 1000x what anyone thought of them.

The argument that he didnt do much post transfer doesn’t totally hold up for me. His first season there, he was a massive improvement on what Kentucky had gotten out of the QB position in prior years with the same coach. I don’t think Kentucky was getting especially bad QB recruits prior to him. My guess is they were mostly average, so near tripling their production means something.

As for Daboll. he did a lot with that offense, but I don’t see the massive improvement from a statistical point of view. He really limited the interceptions and had Jones take a much more conservative approach as a passer and a much more aggressive approach as a rusher. Allen’s shift was way more dramatic.

Jordan Palmer.

[murphysxm]

I see no path to Richardson developing into an NFL caliber QB.

This is a really bad take to have on pretty much anything related to football, fantasy football, dynasty, or evaluating prospects.

Your opinion and that is fine, I do not see an avenue where Richardson is able to overcome his deficiencies that he has in regards to playing the position of QB in the NFL. I have been wrong, will again. I will also raise my hand and admit if I am so. This is not a legit NFL QB prospect in my eyes. He may find a path to being on the field as a gadget/situational tool, but he will never be a long-term NFL QB

[Bronco Billy]

I see no path to Richardson developing into an NFL caliber QB.

This is a really bad take to have on pretty much anything related to football, fantasy football, dynasty, or evaluating prospects.

Your opinion and that is fine, I do not see an avenue where Richardson is able to overcome his deficiencies that he has in regards to playing the position of QB in the NFL. I have been wrong, will again. I will also raise my hand and admit if I am so. This is not a legit NFL QB prospect in my eyes. He may find a path to being on the field as a gadget/situational tool, but he will never be a long-term NFL QB

I’m pretty much onboard with Murph here. Richardson has multiple glaring flaws as a passer. Like Lance, I just don’t see a path where the light suddenly goes on snd he overcomes those negatives sufficiently to be a long term starter in the NFL. Guys just don’t change so dramatically and become starting level NFL QB when they can’t even throw with repeatable consistency and reasonable accuracy at the college level.

It only takes one team to fall in love with the physical tools and draft him early, but I can’t help but think that a lot of teams are going to look at SF’s results to date and be very risk adverse with Richardson.

If I’m looking at taking a large risk at QB, I’d burn a much lower pick for Lindsay Scott Jr. That kid understands how to play QB and has the arm to back it up. Put a couple inches on him and he’d be a Power 5 stud.

[jenkins.math]

This is a really bad take to have on pretty much anything related to football, fantasy football, dynasty, or evaluating prospects.

Your opinion and that is fine, I do not see an avenue where Richardson is able to overcome his deficiencies that he has in regards to playing the position of QB in the NFL. I have been wrong, will again. I will also raise my hand and admit if I am so. This is not a legit NFL QB prospect in my eyes. He may find a path to being on the field as a gadget/situational tool, but he will never be a long-term NFL QB

I’m pretty much onboard with Murph here. Richardson has multiple glaring flaws as a passer. Like Lance, I just don’t see a path where the light suddenly goes on snd he overcomes those negatives sufficiently to be a long term starter in the NFL. Guys just don’t change so dramatically and become starting level NFL QB when they can’t even throw with repeatable consistency and reasonable accuracy at the college level.

It only takes one team to fall in love with the physical tools and draft him early, but I can’t help but think that a lot of teams are going to look at SF’s results to date and be very risk adverse with Richardson.

I don't think Richardson is good, but he doesn't have to become this elite passer to be a good fantasy QB for 4 or 5 years as long as he runs. Daniel Jones was a QB1 this year despite only throwing 15 TD passes because he ran for 700 yards and 7 TDs.

A team that takes Richardson is basically going to have to use the Hurts/Lamar/Cam/Fields playbook while trying to develop him as a passer, but there is a very real scenario where Richardson is a good fantasy QB solely because of what he can do on the ground.

These type of QBs have a shorter shelf life but would you rather have 8 years of Cam Newton or 13 years of Matt Ryan?

[wickerkat1212]

OKAY—give me one name. One guy that so far is your top secret stash, the player you think nobody is paying attention to, that value pick you can get in the 2nd or 3rd round of your draft that will actually work their way onto your starting roster. Who you got?

ONE NAME I'm keeping an eye on is Cedric Tillman. Now he may not be a super sleeper, but he's a guy I think I might be able to get in the second round of my rookie draft. Though if he gets taken in the first round, no way does he stay under the radar.

Beyond that keep an eye on Jared Wayne.

[Jigga94]

This is a really bad take to have on pretty much anything related to football, fantasy football, dynasty, or evaluating prospects.

Your opinion and that is fine, I do not see an avenue where Richardson is able to overcome his deficiencies that he has in regards to playing the position of QB in the NFL. I have been wrong, will again. I will also raise my hand and admit if I am so. This is not a legit NFL QB prospect in my eyes. He may find a path to being on the field as a gadget/situational tool, but he will never be a long-term NFL QB

I’m pretty much onboard with Murph here. Richardson has multiple glaring flaws as a passer. Like Lance, I just don’t see a path where the light suddenly goes on snd he overcomes those negatives sufficiently to be a long term starter in the NFL. Guys just don’t change so dramatically and become starting level NFL QB when they can’t even throw with repeatable consistency and reasonable accuracy at the college level.

It only takes one team to fall in love with the physical tools and draft him early, but I can’t help but think that a lot of teams are going to look at SF’s results to date and be very risk adverse with Richardson.

If I’m looking at taking a large risk at QB, I’d burn a much lower pick for Lindsay Scott Jr. That kid understands how to play QB and has the arm to back it up. Put a couple inches on him and he’d be a Power 5 stud.

Wow that kid had 1 weird college journey