2022 AND 2023 classes. Where did we go wrong?

[Patsfan86]

I feel like the dynasty community used to be much better at evaluating rookie classes as a whole. If the group consensus was its weak, it was weak (2019). If the group consensus is it’s strong it was strong (2017). However the last 2 years have flipped my feelings on that.

2022 everyone said stunk prior to the 2022 draft, it ended up def better than expectations

We all know what happened with 2023

Maybe I was just wrong that the dynasty consensus tended to be correct. Or maybe dynasty is just so popular now that too many voices with little experience are hyping up or tearing down classes too early. Am I the only one who feels this way?

[Bronco Billy]

We don’t know how this class will shake out until the pads go on.

The RBs aren’t as deep as we were lead to believe and I’ve been pushing that train of thought for a while now, but there are at least 3 true 3 down RBs and there should be a good 6-8 solid committee contributors.

The WRs aren’t as bad as projected but there aren’t any true alphas in this class. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a solid group of guys who contribute both in the NFL and in FF.

The QBs are solid and this has the looks of a pretty average class, again with no true alpha at the top. But I see 2-3 solid starters and maybe a surprise or two coming out of this group.

The TE class is nails - maybe the best I’ve seen as a group. Multiple alphas and relatively very deep.

I think part of the problem is that there are too many analysts on the interwebs who either are lazy and only watch highlights, get caught up in group think and end up being an echo chamber; or are relentless film grinders who don’t know the vitals to look for, get caught up in the minutia, and fall in love with a couple of plays that may not be regularly repeatable. There are some really good knowledgable evaluators out there but IMO they are in the minority.

I do believe the knowledge base on this board is very strong and as a group carries more credibility than the amalgam of the large pile of “expert” crap on line. We’ve got some really sharp people here and I pay attention to them a lot more than the group think going on. I do tend to be contrarian so if there gets to be too much momentum for any one player I end up putting them under a deeper look to make sure in my mind that it’s just not momentum building on itself without substance.

[Patsfan86]

We don’t know how this class will shake out until the pads go on.

The RBs aren’t as deep as we were lead to believe and I’ve been pushing that train of thought for a while now, but there are at least 3 true 3 down RBs and there should be a good 6-8 solid committee contributors.

The WRs aren’t as bad as projected but there aren’t any true alphas in this class. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a solid group of guys who contribute both in the NFL and in FF.

The QBs are solid and this has the looks of a pretty average class, again with no true alpha at the top. But I see 2-3 solid starters and maybe a surprise or two coming out of this group.

The TE class is nails - maybe the best I’ve seen as a group. Multiple alphas and relatively very deep.

I think part of the problem is that there are too many analysts on the interwebs who either are lazy and only watch highlights, get caught up in group think and end up being an echo chamber; or are relentless film grinders who don’t know the vitals to look for, get caught up in the minutia, and fall in love with a couple of plays that may not be regularly repeatable. There are some really good knowledgable evaluators out there but IMO they are in the minority.

I do believe the knowledge base on this board is very strong and as a group carries more credibility than the amalgam of the large pile of “expert” crap on line. We’ve got some really sharp people here and I pay attention to them a lot more than the group think going on. I do tend to be contrarian so if there gets to be too much momentum for any one player I end up putting them under a deeper look to make sure in my mind that it’s just not momentum building on itself without substance.

Agreed fully here about this forum. It was the only place I used to go for dynasty stuff, then 2020 came and I got involved with Dynasty Twitter and that’s just nonsense half the time. I do know a lot of Twitter accounts post on here tho, just don’t know who is who.

I’m not an expert at all, lots of people here who provide great stats and film grades that I listen to. I was lucky and ended up with some top picks this year so I’m not mad that I went in all on 2023 but the hype by some “experts” did some serious damage to some teams. I probably would have been better off listening to everyone here.

I just hope for the future we can do a better job on these classes and control the hype a bit but that’s gonna be tough with dynasty becoming more popular by the day.

[mild]

The RBs aren’t as deep as we were lead to believe and I’ve been pushing that train of thought for a while now, but there are at least 3 true 3 down RBs and there should be a good 6-8 solid committee contributors.

To be fair, I don't think we "went wrong" on this point when the hype was building 8-10 months ago. We literally lost 3 potential bellcows since then for some pretty random reasons. Consider:

- Blake Corum - could have Jr. declared, but instead returned to rebuild his draft stock post knee injury.
- Sean Tucker - was being talked about as the prospective RB3, and potentially even the RB2 by some. Had the toolset and production profile to back this up... but we lost him to a heart condition. That's just unlucky.
- Zach Charbonnet - was widely considered to be a potential bellcow in waiting with his production profile and likely Day 2 capital. All of that is still true... and he's still a lot of people's RB3 in this class... but naturally, no-one is happy about it.

If you want to try and draw a learning conclusion from that going further than "sh-t happens, and we're likely going to lose a few prospects along the way between now and then" then by all means, go nuts.

[Anteaters]

Maybe I was just wrong that the dynasty consensus tended to be correct.

One group misconception I ignore is the tendency to way-too-early designate a draft year as great or terrible. Two years ago, the consensus was hyping the 2023 draft as one of the best of all time, and was very down on the 2024 drafts.

I read a lot of advice along the lines that a 1.12 in 2023 was worth an early 2024 pick. I bet the people who zigged away from that zag feel pretty good if they were able to trade '23 picks for multiple 24 or 25 picks.

I think good players are in all drafts and busts are in all drafts. It's the fantasy drafter that makes the difference, not the year of the draft.

[murphysxm]

I think we simply have more resources and see more words. 5 years ago there was about 3-5 sources that had any credibility to me. Now there are a dozen plus, and a lot of noise on top of that. My impression of this class hasn't changed because of the NFL Draft. I have some players that didn't go where I wanted to, but I still believe in their abilities. Waiting a year for an opportunity doesn't knock a player or their talent for me. Charb is a perfect example to me. I like him, but less than this forum does collectively. His landing spot may allow me to grab him in some leagues I didn't expect him to last. Being on a team with Walker dampens the short term, but the cream always rises

[Bronco Billy]

I think we simply have more resources and see more words. 5 years ago there was about 3-5 sources that had any credibility to me. Now there are a dozen plus, and a lot of noise on top of that. My impression of this class hasn't changed because of the NFL Draft. I have some players that didn't go where I wanted to, but I still believe in their abilities. Waiting a year for an opportunity doesn't knock a player or their talent for me. Charb is a perfect example to me. I like him, but less than this forum does collectively. His landing spot may allow me to grab him in some leagues I didn't expect him to last. Being on a team with Walker dampens the short term, but the cream always rises

See - there’s some truly sage advice. Nicely done

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

I think we simply have more resources and see more words. 5 years ago there was about 3-5 sources that had any credibility to me. Now there are a dozen plus, and a lot of noise on top of that. My impression of this class hasn't changed because of the NFL Draft. I have some players that didn't go where I wanted to, but I still believe in their abilities. Waiting a year for an opportunity doesn't knock a player or their talent for me. Charb is a perfect example to me. I like him, but less than this forum does collectively. His landing spot may allow me to grab him in some leagues I didn't expect him to last. Being on a team with Walker dampens the short term, but the cream always rises

i thought walker was already the cream?

[nathanq42]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. This class could have been bonkers, but it seems like no one did ANYTHING this year to improve on last season. That is where we went "wrong", if everyone coming out this year tore it up this season like they did last year/had even better results it would have been a bunch of Sophmores migrating from late first value guys to early-mid first value guys, but instead we went the opposite way and they migrated from late first to mid second value guys and we are left scratching our heads.

Boutte - fell off a cliff
JSN - injured
Addison - Nothing spectacular but nothing detrimental other than a weak combine
QJ - Lack luster season
Downs - Terrible draft capital
Corum - Torn knee and back to school
Gibbs - See Addison but had a good combine
Charbs - improved his stock IMO
Achane - See Gibbs
Bigsby - see QJ
Evans - See QJ + weak combine

On top of all that the draft yielded a tonne of less than ideal landing spots for FF purposes

[YouMightDieTryin]

People are upset because the draft didn't give us clear cut answers that we wanted. So now we have to do more research and actually find answers ourselves. You can rely on "experts", but like previously stated there's so many out there and every one is looking for click bait. This draft class is still deep. It still has gems in there if you're willing to sort through and take the time to learn. There aren't as many day one starters as we'd like, but like Murph stated the talent will show. Unfortunately RBs are just becoming a mess of RBBC in the NFL. We just need to adapt.

[Cameron Giles]

Mild is right. 2023 had the potential to be an amazing and deep class on paper, and honestly is still has the upside to be a very good class. But, bleep happens:

- Zach Evans went from an elite back to a 6th round pick
- Sean Tucker went from an elite back to an UDFA because of a medical condition
- Kayshon Boutte bombed.
- Zach Charbonnet went to a weird situation
- Blake Corum got injured during a heisman campaign and went back to school.
- Tank Bigsby regressed (but still got decent draft pedigree)
- Of the RBs and WRs, only Bijan and Gibbs went to a team where they are stepping in as "the guy" right away. Everyone else will be more of a traditional rookie climb.

I don't think it means the dynasty community was off the expectations. This is just kind of what can happen when you acquire more information and weird stuff happens.

2022 was undersold significantly and had less room for disappointment. 2022 also benefitted significantly from the WR Market resetting last offseason after the Christian Kirk contract. Kirk's contract led to an abundance of Pro Bowl WRs either getting traded and landing big deals, or getting big extensions. That led to a run on WRs last year so that teams could secure WR talent on cheap contracts instead of having to trade for one or sign one to big deals in the future. The timing couldn't have been better for that specific class.

[Cameron Giles]

I just hope for the future we can do a better job on these classes and control the hype a bit but that’s gonna be tough with dynasty becoming more popular by the day.

Never going to happen, because getting ahead on draft classes and anticipating value is an advantage for any owner. Sometimes you'll be right and sometimes you'll be wrong.

Remember when 2020 was supposed to be one of the best classes ever for RBs and WRs and so far this is what has happened in the first round:

Taylor - stud
CEH - bust
Swift - meh
Dobbins - meh
Akers - meh
Jeudy - solid
Lamb - stud
Ruggs - bust
Jefferson - stud
Higgins - stud
Reagor - bust
Vaughn - bust

Bleep happens, but aiming for potential is a big part of the game.

[spotxc]

I never bought into the hype of 2023. At lot of these prospects had to prove their value in this last year. They were seen as potential. Not many guys showed they were already studs, ex : JSN, Bijan, Addison. Got to form your own opinion and values because unfortunately group think is maybe a couple opinions with loads of bandwagoners so it’s not as surefire as you would think. Anyways, hopefully it’s a lesson learned to do your own research and not rely on the consensus

Edit: and 2 of 3 already studs hurt themselves the last year, and Addison being so slim, had some question marks

[murphysxm]

i thought walker was already the cream?

Didn't say he didn't. People get hurt. Trades happen. Talent creates touches. Just saying Charb is still good at football and should be drafted as such.

[skinfanjon]

I just hope for the future we can do a better job on these classes and control the hype a bit but that’s gonna be tough with dynasty becoming more popular by the day.

Never going to happen, because getting ahead on draft classes and anticipating value is an advantage for any owner. Sometimes you'll be right and sometimes you'll be wrong.

Remember when 2020 was supposed to be one of the best classes ever for RBs and WRs and so far this is what has happened in the first round:

Taylor - stud
CEH - bust
Swift - meh
Dobbins - meh
Akers - meh
Jeudy - solid
Lamb - stud
Ruggs - bust
Jefferson - stud
Higgins - stud
Reagor - bust
Vaughn - bust

Bleep happens, but aiming for potential is a big part of the game.

Hilarious to me that you invent a “solid” category specifically for Jeudy, which somehow doesn’t apply to Dobbins or Swift. It’s ok to admit he’s very underwhelming. If the Broncos can do it, so can the FF community.

Regarding this class, I see two super studs at the top that would rival any class in Bijan and Gibbs. I also see a ton of roster glue types that are available all throughout the 2nd round. Good players who should be fantasy contributors for a long time. Great TEs. A super safe QB and an astronomically high ceiling QB. That’s a pretty good class IMO. The biggest difference is the top end WRs as compared to the last three years:

20- Lamb, Jeudy, Jefferson
21- Chase, DeVonta, Waddle
22- Wilson, London, Olave

All 9 of these guys run laps around JSN, Addison, and QJ as prospects. All of them hit big except for Jeudy.

Not every year is gonna give 3 tremendous prospects at WR on top of a handful of good WR prospects. People should recalibrate expectations a little.