Dynasty League Football Forum

I think that whole offense was doomed. I read so many things about how it was unnecessarily complex and every-changing for the last few years.

Remember how Wentz was on his MVP run before his injury? How did he go from MVP and future superstar to bust so quickly? The theory is that the fault lies with the system that was put in place.

With new players and a new/easier system, maybe things will turn around. Maybe Reagor finds his way. It's too early to declare anything just yet. Maybe JJAW becomes relevant!.... one can dream.

ArrylT wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:05 am Well Doctson, and guys like Kevin White & Perriman missed most of or all of their 1st season. That is imo a different trajectory.

Reagor played 11 games and had a respectable 36 yrds/game pace, while havign a couple of 50 yard games. Which over the course of a full 16 games would have been about 550-600 yards.

I suppose it depends each owner but here are a few recent WRs whose career started on a similar note 35-45 yards/game - not comparing Reagor to any of them stylistically simply y/g start.

Davante Adams (1st 2 years)
Robert Woods (1st 3 years)
Emmanuel Sanders (1st 3 years)
Demaryius Thomas (1st year)
Devante Parker (1st year)
Tyreek Hill (1st year)
Corey Davis (1st year)
Courtland Sutton (1st year)
Chris Godwin (1st year)

I am not saying he's safe - just that his career start still has favorable outcomes going forward. Year II will give us a better understanding of his career arc - but he is far from being a bust yet imho.

This is an excellent post. I don’t understand this attitude that if a player isn’t startable as a rookie that they are useless for their career. That is especially true during last season when COVID wiped out OTAs and truncated TC and PS. Reagor may end up being useless, but IMO the jury is still out and this negative narrative may present a buying opportunity from antsy owners. And this comes from a guy who was down on him before that draft.

dlf_mikeh wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:10 am I think that whole offense was doomed. I read so many things about how it was unnecessarily complex and every-changing for the last few years.

Remember how Wentz was on his MVP run before his injury? How did he go from MVP and future superstar to bust so quickly? The theory is that the fault lies with the system that was put in place.

With new players and a new/easier system, maybe things will turn around. Maybe Reagor finds his way. It's too early to declare anything just yet. Maybe JJAW becomes relevant!.... one can dream.

That can happen. Sometimes coaches get too complicated. As a Raiders fan I recall Bill Callahan and how complex his offensive schemes were back in the early 2000s

ArrylT wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:05 am Well Doctson, and guys like Kevin White & Perriman missed most of or all of their 1st season. That is imo a different trajectory.

Reagor played 11 games and had a respectable 36 yrds/game pace, while havign a couple of 50 yard games. Which over the course of a full 16 games would have been about 550-600 yards.

I suppose it depends each owner but here are a few recent WRs whose career started on a similar note 35-45 yards/game - not comparing Reagor to any of them stylistically simply y/g start.

Davante Adams (1st 2 years)
Robert Woods (1st 3 years)
Emmanuel Sanders (1st 3 years)
Demaryius Thomas (1st year)
Devante Parker (1st year)
Tyreek Hill (1st year)
Corey Davis (1st year)
Courtland Sutton (1st year)
Chris Godwin (1st year)

I am not saying he's safe - just that his career start still has favorable outcomes going forward. Year II will give us a better understanding of his career arc - but he is far from being a bust yet imho.

Reagor had 11 games played, 36 YPG, Rookie PFF Receiving grade of 64.2 (Which is about average. Under 60 starts to get concerning).

- Here's the list of 37-46 Rookie YPG, min 9 games played from 1995-2015. Rookie PFF receiving grade next to their names when available. You can view more here

- The good news is that Reagor played in 9+ games. The hit rate drops drastically if they don't. So he's not really in the same boat as Docston, White, and Perriman.

Stud Hit Rate – 7%
Good Hit Rate – 24%
Bust Rate – 76%

Studs (3)
Muhsin Muhammad
Greg Jennings [62.2]
Darrell Jackson

Good (7)
Tyler Lockett [76.4]
Antonio Bryant
Wayne Chrebet
James Jones [61.4]
Robert Woods [62.3]
Jamison Crowder [69.4]
Deion Branch

Busts (31)
Chris Givens [70.3]
Rod Gardner
Terrance Williams [64.9]
Donte’ Stallworth
Sylvester Morris
Donnie Avery [72.8]
Troy Edwards
Oronde Gadsden
Greg Little [57.5]
Anthony Gonzalez [76.4]
Kenny Britt [75.1]
John Brown [69.4]
Aaron Dobson [62.6]
Tony Simmons
J.J. Stokes
Allen Hurns [61.4]
Austin Collie [69.9]
Willie Jackson
Kendall Wright [67.7]
Jason McAddley
Kenny Stills [61.4]
Jordan Shipley [66.3]
Charles Johnson [67.3]
Snoop Minnis
Mahamed Massaquoi [64.4]
Kenbrell Thompkins [62.5]
Taylor Gabriel [72.6]
Titus Young [65.1]
Marlon Brown [64.9]
Charlie Jones
Peter Warrick

______________________________


Here's the list of 27-36 rookie YPG, which Reagor falls into (he's right at 36). Too many busts I stopped writing them down when I was doing this study.

Stud Hit Rate – 10%
Good or Better Hit Rate – 19%
Bust Hit Rate – 81%

Stud (6)
Edelman [68.9]
Terrell Owens
Laveranues Coles
Demaryius Thomas [82.7]
Roddy White
Chad Johnson

Good (6)
Alshon Jeffery [66.4]
Michael Floyd [62.0]
Davone Bess [77.8]
David Boston
Nate Burleson
Davante Adams [62.8]

_______________________________

Rookie PFF Grade for Studs (All groups)
Average 73.9
High 91.2 (OBJ)
Low 62 (Jordy Nelson)

Rookie PFF Grade for Good (All groups)
Average 67.7
High 80.4 (Doug Baldwin)
Low 59.9 (Pierre Garcon)

_______________________________

Basically, statistically he's a sell. Any WR drafted in the 1st round this year will likely have a better chance at success before they even play a down than Reagor. That said, it could be worse (see: Ruggs).

I personally own Reagor on quite a few teams. I've sold where I could, but given the chaotic situation in Philly last year I am not panic selling. Not for a mid-late 2 in a rookie class where you're getting a similar type of flyer in rookie drafts at those spots.

__________________________________________________________________

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:10 am
Kenbrell Thompkins [62.5]

Thanks so much for reminding me. I thought I was a genius for landing him for next to nothing.

Appreciate you sharing that. Pretty much in line with what I thought. 25% overall plus 1st round pedigree which tends to increase the odds slightly due to the pedigree giving extra opportunity. And that is for multple 1k seasons ... if you're a contender with plenty of depth, you may only need him for 1-2 seasons. Nor is 1k yards necessary to be fantasy relevant (if talking top 36) - a lot depends on target volume and redzone usage.

I think it is really going to be owner dependent. I certainly have no issue with anyone who wants to move off Raegor already - however given the odds, pedigree, 2020 situation context - it is still pretty favorable from my perspective. It all depends on your perspective & style of play.

For example if you're worried he is firmly on the bust track

The Big Dawg [ roster · trades ]
WR Jalen Reagor, PHI
Trade date: 2021-04-06 ImYourCaptainNow [ roster · trades ]
1.12 draft pick

Then a reset trade like that should be in order where you can potentially get a WR with similar Day 1/2 pedigree.

Or if a veteran with proven production is more your thing

Reign of Kong [ roster · trades ]
WR Jalen Reagor, PHI

Trade date: 2021-04-03 Alge Crumplers [ roster · trades ]
WR Kenny Golladay, NYG

But if you start moving Reagor for late 2nds or 3rds, then the hit rate on players from that range is actually less than the hit rate from what DD showed above.

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:10 am
Basically, statistically he's a sell. Any WR drafted in the 1st round this year will likely have a better chance at success before they even play a down than Reagor. That said, it could be worse (see: Ruggs).

I personally own Reagor on quite a few teams. I've sold where I could, but given the chaotic situation in Philly last year I am not panic selling. Not for a mid-late 2 in a rookie class where you're getting a similar type of flyer in rookie drafts at those spots.

I don’t think you’re getting a pick where you can take a WR drafted in the first for Reagor, so the idea that his outcomes are less favorable than any first round pick is unlikely to be relevant. Maybe you could get Kadarius Toney?

I think given the context of the shortened off-season, the injury, and then playing with a raw rookie in Jalen Hurts for half his starts, I’m willing to bet on Reagor’s potential outcomes lying on the rosier side of his cohort and try to buy at that mid-second price.

I viewed him as overhyped and a high bust rate kind of WR coming in to last season. I still have that belief.

Not much of a fan as a legit WR1 quality player and really didn’t like the landing spot.

A player I avoided and still have no interest in.

Had a second round fantasy grade last year and nothing has changed that for me.