WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I didn't look into rushing yards. I'd imagine it wouldn't change much. And if Shenault played in a game it would include it.

[brward]

Looking forward to the back half of the season. Rookie receivers tend to produce much more in the 2nd half compared to the 1st half.

[honcho55]

Looking forward to the back half of the season. Rookie receivers tend to produce much more in the 2nd half compared to the 1st half.

Yeah, imo it’s kind of a last chance to buy some of these guys. Price is high, but it can be super high in a handful of weeks, or in the off season

[Meretc01]

With Philip rivers doing Phillip river things.. what’s the chance Pittman gets 70> vs Tennessee’s meh pass defense.

[YouMightDieTryin]

Looking forward to the back half of the season. Rookie receivers tend to produce much more in the 2nd half compared to the 1st half.

Yeah, imo it’s kind of a last chance to buy some of these guys. Price is high, but it can be super high in a handful of weeks, or in the off season

Should be nice to finally see Edwards, Pittman, Peoples-Jones, etc get on the field and shine.

With Philip rivers doing Phillip river things.. what’s the chance Pittman gets 70> vs Tennessee’s meh pass defense.

TY Hilton is back to stretch the field, but also take targets away. It's not impossible for Pittman to get the yards, but I would temper expectations for his 2nd week back from compartment syndrome surgery.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

It would be his 3rd week back

[YouMightDieTryin]

It would be his 3rd week back

You keep your facts to yourself sir.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

It would be his 3rd week back

You keep your facts to yourself sir.

Sorry, it will never happen again.

[mild]

With Philip rivers doing Phillip river things.. what’s the chance Pittman gets 70> vs Tennessee’s meh pass defense.

Just remember that if you're weighing a spot start, I would fade Thursday night passing options. When in doubt, always fade the Thursday game from a passing perspective, whilst rushing stays neutral, to perhaps a slight positive bump.

TNF are usually messy affairs; it's very rare that the game delivers on quality play due to the short turnaround. Probably the last "good" Thursday game I can recall was last year's Rams / Seahawks tilt where both teams were up for it, and that felt like a big-time game and a minor miracle.

[Sriracha]

With Philip rivers doing Phillip river things.. what’s the chance Pittman gets 70> vs Tennessee’s meh pass defense.

Just remember that if you're weighing a spot start, I would fade Thursday night passing options. When in doubt, always fade the Thursday game from a passing perspective, whilst rushing stays neutral, to perhaps a slight positive bump.

TNF are usually messy affairs; it's very rare that the game delivers on quality play due to the short turnaround. Probably the last "good" Thursday game I can recall was last year's Rams / Seahawks tilt where both teams were up for it, and that felt like a big-time game.

I'm not sure if this still applies. Teams look like they've figured out TNF at this point.

[Orenthal Shames]

Denver has optimized their WR corps, moving Jeudy outside and Hamler to the slot.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I've been meaning to re-do the analysis with a minimum of 9 games played and a set definition for what defines a "good" player. Also wanted to double check all my numbers as well.

I believe the numbers are more or less the same but I did find something interesting that I missed the first time around. There definitely seems to be some sort of cutoff point or threshold where the talent drops of precipitously. That number looks to be roughly around 44-45 ypg and I'll explain why.

- First, below 47 ypg the stud rate and hit rate drops like a rock. The "good or better" hit rate goes from 76% above 47 to 22% below 47.
- Second, the only 3 stud hits in the 37-46 ypg group were all at the high end of the group. Muhsin Muhammad (45.2), Greg Jennings (45.1) and Darrell Jackson (44.6).
- Third, and this is all speculation, but several players drafted after 2015 that are not included in this study that are in that range have big "stud" potential. Will Fuller (45.2), Courtland Sutton (44.0), and Kenny Golladay (43.4).

So even if a player misses out on the coveted 47+ group, I still think around 43-46 is still a very very nice range for a player to end up in and I wouldn't be too discouraged if a player I liked ended up there. That said, below that "threshold" and the numbers aren't pretty.

I also wrote down all the names so you guys could take a look for yourselves. You can see some situations where a player maybe is on his way to "stud" status but I couldn't put them there yet (see: Diggs), and players like Lockett who have been great but somehow didn't qualify for anything yet.

I still find it interesting how the hit rates just completely bottom out and flatten below 44-47 ypg.

If we're looking for potential breakout players, 16 of 24 of the players that eventually went on to become studs that had less than 47 ypg were top 3 round draft picks. Also, the further down the list you go for YPG the more likely the stud would be a later round or UDFA guy. So basically bet on the guy with top 3 round draft capital over the later-round or UDFA guy.


Rookie Yards per Game

1995-2015
9+ Games played
Hit = 3+ 1k yard seasons
Good = 3+ 750+ yard seasons

67+
Stud Rate - 90%
Good or Better - 90%

57-66
Stud Rate - 50%
Good or Better - 57%

47-56
Stud Rate - 31%
Good or Better - 69%

37-46
Stud Rate - 7%
Good or Better - 22%

27-36
Stud Rate - 10%
Good or Better - 19%

17-26
Stud Rate - 10%
Good or Better - 17%

7-16
Stud Rate - 6%
Good or Better - 11%

0-6
Stud Rate - 2%
Good or Better - 4%

__________________________________________________________

FULL RESULTS


67+

Studs (9)
OBJ
Boldin
Moss
Glenn
Colston
Julio Jones
AJG
Mike Evans
Keenan Allen

Good

Busts(1)
Michael Clayton

Stud Hit Rate - 90%
Good or better Hit Rate – 90%
Bust Rate – 10%


_____________________________________


57-66

Studs (7)
Cooper
Galloway
Bowe
Andre Johnson
Keyshawn Johnson
TY Hilton
Desean Jackson

Good (1)
Kennison

Busts (6)
TB Mike Williams
Roy Williams
Royal
Kevin Johnson
Watkins
Anthony Armstrong


Stud Hit Rate – 50%
Good or better Hit Rate – 57%
Bust Rate – 43%


________________________________


47-56

Studs (9)
Brandin Cooks
Marvin Harrison
Santonio Holmes
Calvin Johnson
DeAndre Hopkins
Torry Holt
Larry Fitzgerald
Jarvis Landry
Mike Wallace

Good (11)
Michael Crabtree
Hakeem Nicks
Stefon Diggs
Chris Chambers
Frank Sanders
Allen Robinson
Lee Evans
Torrey Smith
Jeremy Maclin
Braylon Edwards
Doug Baldwin

Busts (9)
Jordan Matthews
Percy Harvin
Martavis Bryant
Justin Blackmon
Chris Sanders
Josh Gordon
Keary Colbert
Denarius Moore
Michael Westbrook


Stud Hit Rate – 31%
Good or better Hit Rate – 69%
Bust Rate – 31%


__________________________________


37-46

Studs (3)
Muhsin Muhammad [45.2]
Greg Jennings [45.1]
Darrell Jackson [44.6]

Good (6)
Antonio Bryant
Wayne Chrebet
James Jones
Robert Woods
Jamison Crowder
Deion Branch

Busts (32)
Chris Givens
Rod Gardner
Terrance Williams
Donte’ Stallworth
Sylvester Morris
Donnie Avery
Troy Edwards
Oronde Gadsden
Greg Little
Anthony Gonzalez
Kenny Britt
John Brown
Aaron Dobson
Tony Simmons
J.J. Stokes
Allen Hurns
Austin Collie
Willie Jackson
Kendall Wright
Tyler Lockett
Jason McAddley
Kenny Stills
Jordan Shipley
Charles Johnson
Snoop Minnis
Mahamed Massaquoi
Kenbrell Thompkins
Taylor Gabriel
Titus Young
Marlon Brown
Charlie Jones
Peter Warrick


Stud Hit Rate – 7%
Good Hit Rate – 22%
Bust Rate – 78%


________________________


27-36

62 players total

Stud (6)
Edelman
Terrell Owens
Laveranues Coles
Demaryius Thomas
Roddy White
Chad Johnson

Good (6)
Alshon Jeffery
Michael Floyd
Davone Bess
David Boston
Nate Burleson
Davante Adams


Stud Hit Rate – 10%
Good or Better Hit Rate – 19%
Bust Rate – 81%


___________________________


17-26

69 total

Studs (7)
Reggie Wayne
Jordy Nelson
Plaxico Burress
Golden Tate
Brandon Marshall
Antonio Brown
Eric Moulds

Good (5)
Ted Ginn Jr.
Peerless Price
Bobby Engram
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Marvin Jones


Stud Hit Rate – 10%
Good or better Hit Rate – 17%
Bust Rate – 83%


_______________________________


7-16

95 total players

Studs (6)
Hines Ward [15.4]
Derrick Mason [11.6]
Steve Smith [10.3]
Antonio Freeman [9.6]
Rod Smith [9.5]
Stevie Johnson [9.3]

Good (4)
David Patten
Bernard Berrian
Brandon Lloyd
Adam Thielen


Stud Rate – 6%
Good or Better – 11%

____________________________


0-6

115 total players

Studs (2)
Joe Horn
Wes Welker

Good (3)
Jerricho Cotchery
Pierre Garcon
Bill Schroeder


Stud Rate – 2%
Good or Better – 4%

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Also noticed something quite interesting. I was re-doing the yearly reception total analysis again as well and this jumped out at me.


45-64 rookie receptions, Greater than 45ypg
Stud – 12
Good – 14
Bust – 5

Stud Rate – 39%
Good or Better – 84%


45-64 rookie receptions, Less than 45ypg
Stud – 0
Good – 4
Bust – 16

Stud Rate – 0%
Good or Better – 20%


Basically, rookie receptions only really matter if you're producing at a high level for each game. According to the numbers you're actually more likely to fail by getting a lot of receptions if you're inefficient with them.

Players this is applicable to post 2015;

45-64 Rookie Receptions, Greater than 45 ypg
Calvin Ridley
Cooper Kupp
Terry McLaurin
DK Metcalf
Juju Smith-Schuster
Deebo Samuel
DJ Moore
AJ Brown
Hunter Renfrow
Eli Rogers
Darius Slayton
Will Fuller


45-64 Rookie Receptions, Less than 45 ypg
Sterling Shepard
Tyreek Hill
Diontae Johnson
Tyler Boyd
Marquise Brown



Tyreek Hill and Tyler Boyd could potentially buck this trend, but it's a big enough disparity that it could give me some pause about the rest of the players on that list. I dunno just something to think about! Eli Rogers [45.7] and Renfrow [46.5] have the lowest YPG in the "good" group (well, outside of Will Fuller [45.4]), so not surprising they are the most likely to bust.


If we really get nuts and project out this year, Mooney and Shenault are the guys pacing for the ideal reception total but the less than ideal <45ypg. Bump up those numbers guys!!!

[CGW]

Poor Tyler Lockett, not even stats like him.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Poor Tyler Lockett, not even stats like him.

Lol yeah.

Also I’m a doofus, I meant to exclude rookie year production from the total to meet the “stud” or “good” criteria but I forgot. I’ll go back and adjust that eventually. I don’t think it will change much but might change a couple of people who made the “good” list.