I think Allen Robinson falls in the "players you just hope are good" category at this point. His value is still riding one good season 5 years ago.TheNuts wrote: ↑Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:05 pm Yeah I don't get this thread. Sell all the good players for players you just hope are good!
Allen Robinson is not even close to a sell. His value is extremely low for a number one, especially for Nagys offense. He is a buy if anything. Give me Arob over any second round rookie and probably any first round rookie outside of Murray.
Sell Now Players!!!
Re: Sell Now Players!!!
Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5
Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5
Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1
Re: Sell Now Players!!!
Agreed. I went ahead and checked Ertz really quickly. He easily surpassed 185 catches, 2000 yards, and 10 TDs. It took about 45 seconds to find that info.Dynasty DeLorean wrote: ↑Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:03 pmThat... doesn't seem accurate. Zach Ertz is just one guy off the top of my head that fits those numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if there are others as well if Ertz was missed.Lord_Varys wrote: ↑Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:54 pm Five tight ends have accumulated 185+ catches, 2000+ yards, and 10+ TDs through their first 4 seasons. The first four are pretty unsurprising names:
Kellen Winslow
Rob Gronkowski
Tony Gonzalez
Jason Witten
The fifth? Eric Ebron
I get it that he'll probably have some TD regression. But he has one of the top 3 young QBs in the game, is young himself, is on pace for greatness.... At a certain point you stop overthinking things and just enjoy the ride.
edit: jimmy Graham as well. And some of those players were close to or either got those numbers through just their first 3 seasons or so. Its kind of apples to oranges when most put up much better numbers than ebron. But it could be interesting if the list was correct.
I like Ebron as much an anybody, but to put him up there with Winslow, Gronk, Gonzalez, and Witten is nuts.
Re: Sell Now Players!!!
Yes I had to check for myselfsnaps06 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:56 pmAgreed. I went ahead and checked Ertz really quickly. He easily surpassed 185 catches, 2000 yards, and 10 TDs. It took about 45 seconds to find that info.Dynasty DeLorean wrote: ↑Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:03 pmThat... doesn't seem accurate. Zach Ertz is just one guy off the top of my head that fits those numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if there are others as well if Ertz was missed.Lord_Varys wrote: ↑Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:54 pm Five tight ends have accumulated 185+ catches, 2000+ yards, and 10+ TDs through their first 4 seasons. The first four are pretty unsurprising names:
Kellen Winslow
Rob Gronkowski
Tony Gonzalez
Jason Witten
The fifth? Eric Ebron
I get it that he'll probably have some TD regression. But he has one of the top 3 young QBs in the game, is young himself, is on pace for greatness.... At a certain point you stop overthinking things and just enjoy the ride.
edit: jimmy Graham as well. And some of those players were close to or either got those numbers through just their first 3 seasons or so. Its kind of apples to oranges when most put up much better numbers than ebron. But it could be interesting if the list was correct.
I like Ebron as much an anybody, but to put him up there with Winslow, Gronk, Gonzalez, and Witten is nuts.
http://pfref.com/tiny/orGs2
Thats every TE from 1970 forward (after AFL & NFL Merger) for their first 4 years that have matched that specific criteria.
http://pfref.com/tiny/ZmnSW
Thats every TE from 1998 - or the start of the internet/fantasy football era
The interesting thing is that it re-confirms (for me) the value of a 1st round TE. Even Ebron despite a 'delayed' development, on a team that did not prioritize the TE position, with only 45 games as a starter (out of 72 potential) is on a list of some pretty good names.
So rather this suggests that rather than Eric Ebron being a bust is that his first 4-5 years production should be considered a likely floor for the first 4-5 years of any TE drafted after him in the 1st round such as
Evan Engram
Noah Fant
TJ Hockenson
OJ Howard
Hayden Hurst
David Njoku
http://pfref.com/tiny/y6DKi
That is a list of all 1st round TEs since merger with just their 5 years of production matching 240+ receptions, 2500+ yards receiving & 15+ TDs.
http://pfref.com/tiny/yZ4sy
And their full career outlooks.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..
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Re: Sell Now Players!!!
I just pulled the stat from Twitter. I should've known better than to blindly trust what I read on the internet...
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Re: Sell Now Players!!!
JuJu + Conner must be an overpay I would think. Got shot down.FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:07 pm This is going to be unpopular for some but, how about Saquon Barkley? His price is astronomical, and if you make the right deal, he can make your overall team a lot stronger, with less equity tied up in one player, who is playing the position that is the most volatile and short lived in all of Fantasy Football.
12 Team 1QB PPR
8 Starters - QB 1, RB 2-3, WR 3-4, TE 1
QB - CJ Stroud, Justin Fields, Matthew Stafford
RB - Breece Hall, Zach Charbonnet, Dameon Pierce, D'Onta Foreman, Chris Rodriguez
WR - Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Nico Collins, Christian Watson, Jameson Williams, Michael Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marquise Brown
TE - Cole Kmet, Luke Schoonmaker, Darren Waller, Jelani Woods
Picks - 1.02, 1.09, 2.02, 4.02 -- All 2025 Picks
8 Starters - QB 1, RB 2-3, WR 3-4, TE 1
QB - CJ Stroud, Justin Fields, Matthew Stafford
RB - Breece Hall, Zach Charbonnet, Dameon Pierce, D'Onta Foreman, Chris Rodriguez
WR - Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Nico Collins, Christian Watson, Jameson Williams, Michael Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marquise Brown
TE - Cole Kmet, Luke Schoonmaker, Darren Waller, Jelani Woods
Picks - 1.02, 1.09, 2.02, 4.02 -- All 2025 Picks
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Re: Sell Now Players!!!
I can't sell him for a ketchup Popsicle in one league, like no one seems to want him, I don't get it. I even try selling for 3/4 to 1/2 of his perceived value and can't even get a sniff.wickerkat1212 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:16 amGod, didn't realize he was that old. Wow. I got a lot of offers this off-season, maybe I should start thinking about them.Ice wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:03 amYes, the point was he is at peak value. By this time next year he will be on the wrong side of 30 and his value will drop.killer_of_giants wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:31 am
not to me he doesn't!
edit: i read targets. that's pretty much his career average isn't it?
however, a good o-line and running game are good for WRs too.
We could and probably will see a slight drop off this year which makes him an ideal sell.
12 Team 1QB PPR
8 Starters - QB 1, RB 2-3, WR 3-4, TE 1
QB - CJ Stroud, Justin Fields, Matthew Stafford
RB - Breece Hall, Zach Charbonnet, Dameon Pierce, D'Onta Foreman, Chris Rodriguez
WR - Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Nico Collins, Christian Watson, Jameson Williams, Michael Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marquise Brown
TE - Cole Kmet, Luke Schoonmaker, Darren Waller, Jelani Woods
Picks - 1.02, 1.09, 2.02, 4.02 -- All 2025 Picks
8 Starters - QB 1, RB 2-3, WR 3-4, TE 1
QB - CJ Stroud, Justin Fields, Matthew Stafford
RB - Breece Hall, Zach Charbonnet, Dameon Pierce, D'Onta Foreman, Chris Rodriguez
WR - Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Nico Collins, Christian Watson, Jameson Williams, Michael Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marquise Brown
TE - Cole Kmet, Luke Schoonmaker, Darren Waller, Jelani Woods
Picks - 1.02, 1.09, 2.02, 4.02 -- All 2025 Picks
Re: Sell Now Players!!!
I would easily reject Juju + Conner for Barkley.
Re: Sell Now Players!!!
You're a crazy person.
Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5
Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5
Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1
Re: Sell Now Players!!!
Conner is over vastly over rated/valued, Juju is a low WR1 - Very High WR2. Barkley is the best RB and fantasy asset in the league.
Trade your Barkley shares for that and you are going to be sorely regretting it in 2 years.
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Re: Sell Now Players!!!
Both these statement are false IMO. Conner is a good RB in a great situation, and Juju has already been more than that at 22 years old. Barkley could get hurt etc. In 2 years there is a good chance Juju is the WR1 in dynasty, with guys like Hopkins and Beckham etc. approaching 30, and Conner will be just turning 26. He's got 2 years on his contract in Pittsburgh, and barring injury will most likely be a RB1 in those seasons, so I don't think many would regret that move. Barkley is a great back, but if in 2 year your FF team has a RB1 and WR1 instead of a top 3 RB, chances are your team will have done better. Juju is going in the first round of startups now, and Conner in the 2nd and 3rd, so value wise it's a home run. You can always trade those guys for players you like more.
Janiel Dones Truther
Foodie. Mild sauce goes in the trash. Well done steak goes with it.
Habaneros make the best hot sauce. Throwing a bunch of random stuff on top of fries doesn't mean you call it "poutine".
Foodie. Mild sauce goes in the trash. Well done steak goes with it.
Habaneros make the best hot sauce. Throwing a bunch of random stuff on top of fries doesn't mean you call it "poutine".
Re: Sell Now Players!!!
And both of those statements are true IMO. I guess we'll see, but have zero interest in Conner and don't thibk he's anything special and while I like Juju I don't see him in the the class of Nuk/AB etc.
Re: Sell Now Players!!!
Calling JuJu a low end WR1-high end WR2 immediately makes you lose all credibility.
10 team, Full PPR, 27 man roster
2018 Champion, 2020 Champion
QB/2 RB/2 WR/1 TE/2 Flex/Defense/Kicker
QB: Allen, Watson, Fields
RB: Barkley, Taylor, Harris Chubb
WR: Ridley, Cooper, Thielen, M. Thomas, D. Smith, Boyd E. Moore, R. Moore, Reagor, St. Brown
TE: Kelce, Fant, Engram
Defense: Denver
Kicker: Gay
2022: None
2023: 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
2018 Champion, 2020 Champion
QB/2 RB/2 WR/1 TE/2 Flex/Defense/Kicker
QB: Allen, Watson, Fields
RB: Barkley, Taylor, Harris Chubb
WR: Ridley, Cooper, Thielen, M. Thomas, D. Smith, Boyd E. Moore, R. Moore, Reagor, St. Brown
TE: Kelce, Fant, Engram
Defense: Denver
Kicker: Gay
2022: None
2023: 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Re: Sell Now Players!!!
Kpsfox2010 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:07 pmCalling JuJu a low end WR1-high end WR2 immediately makes you lose all credibility.
Re: Sell Now Players!!!
That is the crux of one of the key arguments regarding value imho.
Based off of 2018 production and assuming similar for all for 2019 in typical ppr leagues:
Juju Smith-Schuster - 297 points
James Conner - 280 points
Saquon Barkley - 383 points
Ignore the names for a moment and only look at the points scored.
A Total - 577 points % 2 = 288 points per position x 2 (meaning you get an average of 288 points at each of the 2 spots)
B Total - 383 points per 1 position
That means the B owner needs to find a player who scores 194 points in his 2nd position.
Then you add in the # of years you expect this average production out of each.
For some it will be easier to find that 194 points each year, while others will feel it will be easier to find 2 guys who can average 288.
Of course if one assumes Barkleys production can still increase - then its even easier to find say 150-160 points to fill that other spot. On the other hand there is still the possibility that Conner plays a full 16 game season & JJSS can take 1 step further and become a top 6 WR, which would increase the points needed to say 240-250.
Considering how frequently situations change, and how injuries can change value - I do not blame an owner for going for one or the other depending on their risk tolerance & style of play.
Based off of 2018 production and assuming similar for all for 2019 in typical ppr leagues:
Juju Smith-Schuster - 297 points
James Conner - 280 points
Saquon Barkley - 383 points
Ignore the names for a moment and only look at the points scored.
A Total - 577 points % 2 = 288 points per position x 2 (meaning you get an average of 288 points at each of the 2 spots)
B Total - 383 points per 1 position
That means the B owner needs to find a player who scores 194 points in his 2nd position.
Then you add in the # of years you expect this average production out of each.
For some it will be easier to find that 194 points each year, while others will feel it will be easier to find 2 guys who can average 288.
Of course if one assumes Barkleys production can still increase - then its even easier to find say 150-160 points to fill that other spot. On the other hand there is still the possibility that Conner plays a full 16 game season & JJSS can take 1 step further and become a top 6 WR, which would increase the points needed to say 240-250.
Considering how frequently situations change, and how injuries can change value - I do not blame an owner for going for one or the other depending on their risk tolerance & style of play.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..
Re: Sell Now Players!!!
There are really very few owners who are higher on JJSS than I am.psfox2010 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:07 pmCalling JuJu a low end WR1-high end WR2 immediately makes you lose all credibility.
However JJSS was 8th last year in ppr for WRs. It is rare for any WR to get more targets than he already did last year (166). Only 5 players have gone above 170 in the past 5 years*. So assuming just a minor reduction on targets - say 155 and a potential reduction in efficiency with the loss of AB I can certainly see how some could easily project a low end WR1 season. He is only 23 - and it does take time to fully develop ones craft.
Trust me there are others on these forums who feel JJSS will at best be a mid to low WR2 this year - so in comparison considering JJSS as a low WR1 is not in any way that uncredible.
Just because we disagree with a different perspective does not make that perspective automatically unbelievable (within reason of course).
* - I should clarify that there have been 7 WR seasons with 171+ targets, but Julio and AB each have 2, thus only 5 actual WRs. That means even when only considering top 6 WRs, over the past 5 years you get only about a 25% of a WR1 with 171+ targets (6 WR x 5 years = 30 and 7 % 30 = 22%)
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..