Sell Now Players!!!

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
hoos89
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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby hoos89 » Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:21 pm

TheNuts wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:05 pm
Yeah I don't get this thread. Sell all the good players for players you just hope are good!

Allen Robinson is not even close to a sell. His value is extremely low for a number one, especially for Nagys offense. He is a buy if anything. Give me Arob over any second round rookie and probably any first round rookie outside of Murray.
I think Allen Robinson falls in the "players you just hope are good" category at this point. His value is still riding one good season 5 years ago.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins
Jacobs, Michel, D. Harris, Richard, Gaskin
DJ Moore, Sutton, Kupp, Kirk, Deebo, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee, Lazard
OJ Howard, Hockenson, Herndon
IR(2): Love, McKinnon
Taxi(4): MVS
2020 Picks: 1.03, 1.05, 1.x, 1.x, 2.03, 2.x, 2.x, 3.05, 3.x, 4.03, 5.03

Team 3: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Bridgewater, Tannehill
Gurley, Barber, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard, Edmunds
Thomas, Cooks, Watkins, Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Lazard, Treadwell
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Reed
2020 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.06, 1.x, 1.x, 2.x, 2.x

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby snaps06 » Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:56 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:03 pm
Lord_Varys wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:54 pm
Five tight ends have accumulated 185+ catches, 2000+ yards, and 10+ TDs through their first 4 seasons. The first four are pretty unsurprising names:
Kellen Winslow
Rob Gronkowski
Tony Gonzalez
Jason Witten
The fifth? Eric Ebron

I get it that he'll probably have some TD regression. But he has one of the top 3 young QBs in the game, is young himself, is on pace for greatness.... At a certain point you stop overthinking things and just enjoy the ride.
That... doesn't seem accurate. Zach Ertz is just one guy off the top of my head that fits those numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if there are others as well if Ertz was missed.

edit: jimmy Graham as well. And some of those players were close to or either got those numbers through just their first 3 seasons or so. Its kind of apples to oranges when most put up much better numbers than ebron. But it could be interesting if the list was correct.
Agreed. I went ahead and checked Ertz really quickly. He easily surpassed 185 catches, 2000 yards, and 10 TDs. It took about 45 seconds to find that info.

I like Ebron as much an anybody, but to put him up there with Winslow, Gronk, Gonzalez, and Witten is nuts.

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby ArrylT » Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:59 am

snaps06 wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:56 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:03 pm
Lord_Varys wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:54 pm
Five tight ends have accumulated 185+ catches, 2000+ yards, and 10+ TDs through their first 4 seasons. The first four are pretty unsurprising names:
Kellen Winslow
Rob Gronkowski
Tony Gonzalez
Jason Witten
The fifth? Eric Ebron

I get it that he'll probably have some TD regression. But he has one of the top 3 young QBs in the game, is young himself, is on pace for greatness.... At a certain point you stop overthinking things and just enjoy the ride.
That... doesn't seem accurate. Zach Ertz is just one guy off the top of my head that fits those numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if there are others as well if Ertz was missed.

edit: jimmy Graham as well. And some of those players were close to or either got those numbers through just their first 3 seasons or so. Its kind of apples to oranges when most put up much better numbers than ebron. But it could be interesting if the list was correct.
Agreed. I went ahead and checked Ertz really quickly. He easily surpassed 185 catches, 2000 yards, and 10 TDs. It took about 45 seconds to find that info.

I like Ebron as much an anybody, but to put him up there with Winslow, Gronk, Gonzalez, and Witten is nuts.
Yes I had to check for myself

http://pfref.com/tiny/orGs2

Thats every TE from 1970 forward (after AFL & NFL Merger) for their first 4 years that have matched that specific criteria.

http://pfref.com/tiny/ZmnSW

Thats every TE from 1998 - or the start of the internet/fantasy football era

The interesting thing is that it re-confirms (for me) the value of a 1st round TE. Even Ebron despite a 'delayed' development, on a team that did not prioritize the TE position, with only 45 games as a starter (out of 72 potential) is on a list of some pretty good names.

So rather this suggests that rather than Eric Ebron being a bust is that his first 4-5 years production should be considered a likely floor for the first 4-5 years of any TE drafted after him in the 1st round such as

Evan Engram
Noah Fant
TJ Hockenson
OJ Howard
Hayden Hurst
David Njoku

http://pfref.com/tiny/y6DKi

That is a list of all 1st round TEs since merger with just their 5 years of production matching 240+ receptions, 2500+ yards receiving & 15+ TDs.

http://pfref.com/tiny/yZ4sy

And their full career outlooks.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby Lord_Varys » Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:14 am

I just pulled the stat from Twitter. I should've known better than to blindly trust what I read on the internet...

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby Never Veto » Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:52 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:07 pm
This is going to be unpopular for some but, how about Saquon Barkley? His price is astronomical, and if you make the right deal, he can make your overall team a lot stronger, with less equity tied up in one player, who is playing the position that is the most volatile and short lived in all of Fantasy Football.
JuJu + Conner must be an overpay I would think. Got shot down.
20 Team Superflex (1/2 PPR / 6pt TD's)
11 Starters - QB 1(2), RB 2(4), WR 2(5), TE 2(3)


QB - Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Andrew Luck
RB - Kenyan Drake, Rashaad Penny, Royce Freeman, Malcolm Brown, Wayne Gallman
WR - Odell Bechkam Jr, Adam Thielen, Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson, Kenny Golladay, Curtis Samuel
TE - Zach Ertz, OJ Howard
IR - Jerrick McKinnon
PS - Jarrett Stidham, Gary Jennings,
Record 21-5

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby Never Veto » Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:55 pm

wickerkat1212 wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:16 am
Ice wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:03 am
killer_of_giants wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:31 am


not to me he doesn't!

edit: i read targets. that's pretty much his career average isn't it?

however, a good o-line and running game are good for WRs too.
Yes, the point was he is at peak value. By this time next year he will be on the wrong side of 30 and his value will drop.

We could and probably will see a slight drop off this year which makes him an ideal sell.
God, didn't realize he was that old. Wow. I got a lot of offers this off-season, maybe I should start thinking about them.
I can't sell him for a ketchup Popsicle in one league, like no one seems to want him, I don't get it. I even try selling for 3/4 to 1/2 of his perceived value and can't even get a sniff.
20 Team Superflex (1/2 PPR / 6pt TD's)
11 Starters - QB 1(2), RB 2(4), WR 2(5), TE 2(3)


QB - Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Andrew Luck
RB - Kenyan Drake, Rashaad Penny, Royce Freeman, Malcolm Brown, Wayne Gallman
WR - Odell Bechkam Jr, Adam Thielen, Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson, Kenny Golladay, Curtis Samuel
TE - Zach Ertz, OJ Howard
IR - Jerrick McKinnon
PS - Jarrett Stidham, Gary Jennings,
Record 21-5

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:56 pm

I would easily reject Juju + Conner for Barkley.

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby hoos89 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:28 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:56 pm
I would easily reject Juju + Conner for Barkley.
You're a crazy person.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins
Jacobs, Michel, D. Harris, Richard, Gaskin
DJ Moore, Sutton, Kupp, Kirk, Deebo, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee, Lazard
OJ Howard, Hockenson, Herndon
IR(2): Love, McKinnon
Taxi(4): MVS
2020 Picks: 1.03, 1.05, 1.x, 1.x, 2.03, 2.x, 2.x, 3.05, 3.x, 4.03, 5.03

Team 3: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Bridgewater, Tannehill
Gurley, Barber, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard, Edmunds
Thomas, Cooks, Watkins, Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Lazard, Treadwell
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Reed
2020 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.06, 1.x, 1.x, 2.x, 2.x

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:34 pm

hoos89 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:28 pm
bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:56 pm
I would easily reject Juju + Conner for Barkley.
You're a crazy person.
Conner is over vastly over rated/valued, Juju is a low WR1 - Very High WR2. Barkley is the best RB and fantasy asset in the league.

Trade your Barkley shares for that and you are going to be sorely regretting it in 2 years.

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:52 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:34 pm
hoos89 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:28 pm
bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:56 pm
I would easily reject Juju + Conner for Barkley.
You're a crazy person.

Conner is over vastly over rated/valued, Juju is a low WR1 - Very High WR2
. Barkley is the best RB and fantasy asset in the league.

Trade your Barkley shares for that and you are going to be sorely regretting it in 2 years.
Both these statement are false IMO. Conner is a good RB in a great situation, and Juju has already been more than that at 22 years old. Barkley could get hurt etc. In 2 years there is a good chance Juju is the WR1 in dynasty, with guys like Hopkins and Beckham etc. approaching 30, and Conner will be just turning 26. He's got 2 years on his contract in Pittsburgh, and barring injury will most likely be a RB1 in those seasons, so I don't think many would regret that move. Barkley is a great back, but if in 2 year your FF team has a RB1 and WR1 instead of a top 3 RB, chances are your team will have done better. Juju is going in the first round of startups now, and Conner in the 2nd and 3rd, so value wise it's a home run. You can always trade those guys for players you like more.
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 28-5 Division Champ/League High Scorer

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Carson, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, Sproles
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Agholor, Sanu, Higgins, D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Ian Thomas, Clay

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:58 pm

And both of those statements are true IMO. I guess we'll see, but have zero interest in Conner and don't thibk he's anything special and while I like Juju I don't see him in the the class of Nuk/AB etc.

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby psfox2010 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:07 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:34 pm
hoos89 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:28 pm
bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:56 pm
I would easily reject Juju + Conner for Barkley.
You're a crazy person.
Conner is over vastly over rated/valued, Juju is a low WR1 - Very High WR2. Barkley is the best RB and fantasy asset in the league.

Trade your Barkley shares for that and you are going to be sorely regretting it in 2 years.
Calling JuJu a low end WR1-high end WR2 immediately makes you lose all credibility.
10 team, Full PPR, 27 man roster
2018 Champion
QB/2 RB/2 WR/1 TE/2 Flex/Defense/Kicker

QB: Wilson, Wentz
RB: Cook, Fournette, Mixon, Kerryon, Mattison, Armstead
WR: Beckham, KA, Diggs, DJ Moore, ARob, Fuller, AJ Brown, Harry
TE: Kelce, Andrews, Howard
Defense: Titans Bills
Kicker: Gay

2020 Picks: 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st
2021: 1st

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:08 pm

psfox2010 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:07 pm
bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:34 pm
hoos89 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:28 pm


You're a crazy person.
Conner is over vastly over rated/valued, Juju is a low WR1 - Very High WR2. Barkley is the best RB and fantasy asset in the league.

Trade your Barkley shares for that and you are going to be sorely regretting it in 2 years.
Calling JuJu a low end WR1-high end WR2 immediately makes you lose all credibility.
K

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby ArrylT » Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:17 pm

That is the crux of one of the key arguments regarding value imho.

Based off of 2018 production and assuming similar for all for 2019 in typical ppr leagues:

Juju Smith-Schuster - 297 points
James Conner - 280 points

Saquon Barkley - 383 points

Ignore the names for a moment and only look at the points scored.

A Total - 577 points % 2 = 288 points per position x 2 (meaning you get an average of 288 points at each of the 2 spots)
B Total - 383 points per 1 position

That means the B owner needs to find a player who scores 194 points in his 2nd position.

Then you add in the # of years you expect this average production out of each.

For some it will be easier to find that 194 points each year, while others will feel it will be easier to find 2 guys who can average 288.

Of course if one assumes Barkleys production can still increase - then its even easier to find say 150-160 points to fill that other spot. On the other hand there is still the possibility that Conner plays a full 16 game season & JJSS can take 1 step further and become a top 6 WR, which would increase the points needed to say 240-250.

Considering how frequently situations change, and how injuries can change value - I do not blame an owner for going for one or the other depending on their risk tolerance & style of play.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby ArrylT » Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:28 pm

psfox2010 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:07 pm
bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:34 pm
hoos89 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:28 pm


You're a crazy person.
Conner is over vastly over rated/valued, Juju is a low WR1 - Very High WR2. Barkley is the best RB and fantasy asset in the league.

Trade your Barkley shares for that and you are going to be sorely regretting it in 2 years.
Calling JuJu a low end WR1-high end WR2 immediately makes you lose all credibility.
There are really very few owners who are higher on JJSS than I am. :D

However JJSS was 8th last year in ppr for WRs. It is rare for any WR to get more targets than he already did last year (166). Only 5 players have gone above 170 in the past 5 years*. So assuming just a minor reduction on targets - say 155 and a potential reduction in efficiency with the loss of AB I can certainly see how some could easily project a low end WR1 season. He is only 23 - and it does take time to fully develop ones craft.

Trust me there are others on these forums who feel JJSS will at best be a mid to low WR2 this year - so in comparison considering JJSS as a low WR1 is not in any way that uncredible.

Just because we disagree with a different perspective does not make that perspective automatically unbelievable (within reason of course).

* - I should clarify that there have been 7 WR seasons with 171+ targets, but Julio and AB each have 2, thus only 5 actual WRs. That means even when only considering top 6 WRs, over the past 5 years you get only about a 25% of a WR1 with 171+ targets (6 WR x 5 years = 30 and 7 % 30 = 22%)
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..


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