Dynasty League Football Forum

jenkins.math wrote: ↑Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:43 pm

Jigga94 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:40 pm

Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:46 pm Well, now I'm curious what his trade value is. Would 1.12 work for him?

As an owner, I'd rather Davis

As a buyer, a mid 1st is probably the max I'd pay. Could change depending on draft

Could change based on if the Titans draft a WR?

I honestly think the Titans are going to make a run for Golden Tate. They need a vet in that room more than another rookie, and he is a from Nashville. Would adding a guy like that change your buy one way or the other?

No, not the Titans, but if more WR went to good landing spots. AKA not the Titans. Them adding a WR doesn't change much because the offense is bad as is. I was only commenting on how pick value may change and mid 1sts may be more valuable

Jigga94 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:13 pm

jenkins.math wrote: ↑Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:43 pm

Jigga94 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:40 pm

As an owner, I'd rather Davis

As a buyer, a mid 1st is probably the max I'd pay. Could change depending on draft

Could change based on if the Titans draft a WR?

I honestly think the Titans are going to make a run for Golden Tate. They need a vet in that room more than another rookie, and he is a from Nashville. Would adding a guy like that change your buy one way or the other?

No, not the Titans, but if more WR went to good landing spots. AKA not the Titans. Them adding a WR doesn't change much because the offense is bad as is. I was only commenting on how pick value may change and mid 1sts may be more valuable

Gotcha. I thought that was what you meant but wanted to clarify before assuming.

The Titans are losing Derrick Morgan, Vaccaro and one of their starting guards to free agency. I think they will absolutely need to look at getting a pass rushing option at OLB. They can probably look at Safety & Guard in later rounds. I agree that bringing in someone like Tate makes more sense than bringing in yet another rookie.

ericanadian wrote: ↑Mon Feb 04, 2019 8:37 pm The Titans are losing Derrick Morgan, Vaccaro and one of their starting guards to free agency. I think they will absolutely need to look at getting a pass rushing option at OLB. They can probably look at Safety & Guard in later rounds. I agree that bringing in someone like Tate makes more sense than bringing in yet another rookie.

Brian Orakpo retired, too. They need pass rushing badly. I agree that a vet makes more sense, and Tate's all out hustle would be good in the locker room. Normally I'd think he and Davis wouldn't bring enough field stretching to the offense, but Marriotta wouldn't be able to take advantage anyways.

Davis is a good player in a bad situation.

Jigga94 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:40 pm

Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:46 pm Well, now I'm curious what his trade value is. Would 1.12 work for him?

As an owner, I'd rather Davis

As a buyer, a mid 1st is probably the max I'd pay. Could change depending on draft

This is why I'll likely shop my 1.03 if one of the top rbs isn't available. More often than not, rookie WRs can be bought cheaper later. They rarely gain value in the first few years. There are always exceptions like JuJu, but as a whole I've noticed this the past years.

I still really like Davis, but in the immediate his value is directly tied to Mariota. If Mariota doesn't improve, it'll likely be another wasted year for Davis and then he'll have a new QB to adjust to.

If you own Davis, unless you can get an early first, you hold. Otherwise you're just losing value.

I can see there being some reason for concern if the Titans do add a WR with high draft capital - but we have seen that plenty of highly drafted WRs either take long to develop, delayed by injury, or just not pan out. So even if the Titans did draft a WR in the 1st or 2nd there is still a decent chance said WR turns out to be a DGB, Doctson or Ross type.

I guess what I am saying is it will take, for many owners, more than them drafting a WR - it will take proof said WR is going to surplant Davis as the WR1 on the Titans before Davis value should drop more than slightly.

Davis won't be a WR1 unless he gets a better situation.

I'm not sure he'll even be a WR2 in his current situation...

Hopefully his situation changes sooner rather than later, because if he remains in the status quo, it will seriously hamper his development, possibly to point of capping his ceiling.

Let's go down the Titan future rabbit hole a bit:
- Davis is 24, and The Titans give Mariota one more season to right the ship. Then say history repeats itself, and the passing game continues to struggle. Another offseason of "next yr he'll be great" and counting on potential. Skip to next season.
- Now he's 25, the Titans have given up on Mariota and are looking to draft a new QB. So now he's with a rookie or a bridge QB, not a good sign for the passing game. If this is the case it's likely another yr of pretty mediocre numbers due to volume and inaccuracy issues.
- Now he's 26, the Titans just picked up his 5th yr option, and hopefully that rookie QB makes a jump, if not....same old story.
- Davis will finally be free of his poor situation at his age 27 season, but with very little production to show for all his troubles...

IMO that's a very plausible scenario. This isn't even bringing up the fact that they might just run the ball into oblivion in 2019 and beyond. In fact, the only way I don't see type of scenario happening is if Mariota can have a major bounce back, or if they draft an absolute stud QB (Luck/Baker level rookie yr) in 2020. Fingers crossed for Davis owners.

NTM, If the Titans take a WR in round 1, this is likely to only worsen his situation, as it will likely (not 100% - but likely) eat into his target share.

Due to his ambiguous future outcomes, I'd advise owners to hold (or sell if they can get a mid first or better), and I would advise buyers to only buy if you can get a steep discount (late late first/early 2nd).

He seems like a player you'd rather be a yr too late on, need to see it. And to everyone that says, "he'd be too expensive to buy then!" - based on his situation and production, he's too expensive to buy now.

Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:46 pm Well, now I'm curious what his trade value is. Would 1.12 work for him?

1.12 would be selling WAY low and - buying way cheap. I own C.Davis in a couple leagues and in no way, shape, or form, would I be like.... yeah, I spose I'll sell him for the 1.12 in a generally weak offensive class. If I got an offer of that in my leagues, I'd consider it a low ball and semi insulting offer. But, that's just me. Selling Davis now goes against the grain of common sense. It reeks of desperation, lack of patience, and lack of understanding. Spose it wouldn't hurt to send out offers for him though as there are seemingly more and more impatient owners around.

People, year in and year out, preach about talent over situation. Then.... many of these same people, after a year or two, start whistling a different tune. C.Davis, talent wise, would be greater than this year's 1.01.

JFever wrote: ↑Tue Feb 05, 2019 11:11 am

Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:46 pm Well, now I'm curious what his trade value is. Would 1.12 work for him?

1.12 would be selling WAY low and - buying way cheap. I own C.Davis in a couple leagues and in no way, shape, or form, would I be like.... yeah, I spose I'll sell him for the 1.12 in a generally weak offensive class. If I got an offer of that in my leagues, I'd consider it a low ball and semi insulting offer. But, that's just me. Selling Davis now goes against the grain of common sense. It reeks of desperation, lack of patience, and lack of understanding. Spose it wouldn't hurt to send out offers for him though as there are seemingly more and more impatient owners around.

People, year in and year out, preach about talent over situation. Then.... many of these same people, after a year or two, start whistling a different tune. C.Davis, talent wise, would be greater than this year's 1.01.

I'm one of those that preaches talent over situation when drafting. But after a couple seasons, I know when to cut my losses and not worry about sunk cost. I just don't see it happening for Corey Davis. Too many obstacles even if he is really talented.

To alter a famous quote:

Good situation beats talent, when talent is in a bad situation.

I think this is pretty much true for every player except for the best of the best. It's just Occum's razor.

Unless you're DHop level (& I don't think CD is on that level), that can produce highly in spite of a poor situation (early career), it's just much less probable a player will be able to breakout in a bad situation.

Hopefully Mariota can bounce back and change the pattern, but I wouldn't blame anyone for cutting their losses while Davis still has some decent trade value. One more yr similar production, and you'd be lucky to get a early-mid 2nd next offseason (esp in a hype'd up 2020 class).

On the flip side, the ppl that lost faith in Adams are prob kicking themselves (but Adams has one of the best situations in football for a WR, so there's that).

IMO it really depends on A) will Mariota bounce back? B) will CD get at least 130 targets? C) will the Titans just run run run next season?

I think if you can honestly answer yes, yes, no to those questions then you have to hold CD. Otherwise, it might not be the worst idea to at least float his name out there and see what offers you get in return

Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Tue Feb 05, 2019 12:07 pmIMO it really depends on A) will Mariota bounce back? B) will CD get at least 130 targets? C) will the Titans just run run run next season?

I think if you can honestly answer yes, yes, no to those questions then you have to hold CD. Otherwise, it might not be the worst idea to at least float his name out there and see what offers you get in return

My answers would be no/no/yes, so I guess that's why I'm hesitant about Davis as a buy.

Obviously, if C. Davis makes you nervous then I can definitely understand testing the market. However I would concur with JFever that if the price you're getting back is like 1.12 then that is not a good return (imho).

Think of it this way - we know C. Davis situation was pretty poor this year. The Titans finished 29th in Passing Yardage & 28th in Passing TDs Despite that C. Davis production beat almost every 2018 WR except C. Ridley and pretty much equalled C. Godwin from the 2017 class. I think the only 2017 WRs that outproduced him were Juju & Golladay.

So that is 3 WRs from the past 2 Rookie Classes. Are the odds that the 10-12th best rookie from the 2019 class is going to be more valuable a year from now - at least not without knowing situation & who is the target player at 1.10-1.12? Doubtful imho. Now are some of the WRs from the 2017 or 2018 class going to have more favorable situations than C. Davis - right now it looks that way. But remember how poorly D. Hopkins situation looked after that 2016 season, and look where he is now.

I am not saying Corey Davis is going to be Deandre Hopkins, but what I am saying is that situations can change faster than you think. Remember when a lot of owners hated Juju & Kamaras landing spot?

In the end it is going to come down to your risk tolerance, and the prices in your league, if you're a C. Davis owner and looking to move him. But the less value you get for him, the worse odds that the value you get will actually be better than what Corey Davis does in 2019 or future.

If you're going to sell - sell for something you believe in more - not a panic sell for whatever another owner wants to give you. And to me a late 1st or equivalent value* for C. Davis is a panic sell.

* - unless the late 1st equivalency value is a guy like an AJ Green or another proven veteran stud with beaten down stock and you need their production for a playoff run.

In the middle of my new startup (double copy league, 32 teams), and it was interesting seeing where Davis went in relation to the rookies.

On one hand, I can see the argument for having Davis over every single 2019 rookie WR. On the other hand, a big rookie season from youngsters such as DK, Hardman, Campbell, or Marquise Brown could vault them immediately past CD, given their unsullied NFL track record.

Hard to say, CD is a talent but in a startup I would roll with DK’s upside and situation over all of those.

Any rookie has the unknown to deal with but at the end of the day player evaluations on all these players will be all over the map.

In fact I would roll with 3 of the players you mentioned over him but like all 4 of them.