Brandon vs Calvin

This is the place for team advice - should I make this trade, should I draft that player, etc.

Who would you rather have?

Brandon Marshall
10
19%
Calvin Johnson
42
81%
 
Total votes: 52

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kris_kapsner
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Postby kris_kapsner » Wed Jun 23, 2010 8:35 pm

skip wrote:
kris_kapsner wrote:Marshall finished in the bottom half of WR1's for a 12 team league in ALL of his "elite" seasons while Calvin has already finished top 3. The reality is that Marshall is a good WR while Calvin is a great one.
Scoring system variations have to be taken into consideration here. The DLF I which uses the WCOFF scoring (basically a standard ppr league) Marshall has been the #4 WR in each of the last two seasons - including ahead of Calvin in 2008.
Fair enough. Our scoring is 1 PPR, 1 point per 20 yards, 6 for TDs. And, Marshall hasn't been uber elite in any season.

Also, as stated by others, I wouldn't expect Marshall to continue his 100+ receptions in Miami. He may, but I doubt it. I think he is very good. But, Calvin is the kind of talent you just can't pass on in a draft in favor of Marshall.
16 team PPR Est. 2002 (Champion: 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016)
Start: QB, 2-4WR, 2-3RB, 1-2TE, K, D
QB: Russell Wilson, Zach Wilson
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Chubb, Hunt, G. Bernard
WR: Adams, Metcalf, Callaway, Shepard, Watkins, Fuller, T. Williams, Proche
TE: Kelce, Pitts, Njoku, Seals-Jones
K: Gay
D: Vikings

princevincexoxo

Re:

Postby princevincexoxo » Tue Jun 29, 2010 8:29 am

kris_kapsner wrote:
princevincexoxo wrote:
kris_kapsner wrote:The difference is Marshall has been involved in drive by shootings, resulting in the death of an NFL player, been thrown through a TV, been a cry baby about his contract to the point where he was punting the ball away from a ball boy just to make a point that he didn't want to be there...

Calvin is a class act who will be a stud for the long run that won't give you suspension worries... or dare I say Chris Henry-like off field issues.

If the stats are even close, I'll take the guy who A) has more physical ability and B) is not going to worry me about where his head is.

That would be Calvin Johnson and it isn't even close when you factor in the whole picture.

In theory this soudns great Kris...but the reality is....for 3 years he has been devalued because of that and it has proven to be very costly...at what point do you begin to take advantage of that? Its just like anything else in fantasy football you asses the risk and reward and take advantage of it accordingly. The longer you wait for something to happen, the more convinced you become that eventually it WILL HAPPEN...and it might happen eventually...but how much do you sacrifice along the way? And is it worth it?

In my opinion...it isnt.
Ok, since just watching the players isn't enough to convince you that Calvin is the supreme WR to have compared to Marshall, I'll try to battle this one with stats.

Brandon Marshall has had one more year in the league than Calvin. So, when Marshall was hitting his stride Calvin was a rookie. Keep that in mind when you are trying to site Calvin's shorter length of success.

If you compare rookie years by the numbers:
Marshall: 20 catches, 309 yards, 2 TDs
Calvin: 48/756/4

So, Calvin doubled Marshall's rookie stats or more in every category. And, unlike Marshall, Calvin was actually fantasy relevant his rookie year. Calvin's numbers weren't huge. But, they were good enough for bye week or injury fill in while Marshall's were not.

2007 WRs that finished ahead of Marshall in my PPR league: Fitzgerald, Houshmandzadeh, Ochocinco, Colston, Owens, Wayne, Welker, Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards

WR10 finish in 2007 for Marshall (Calvin's rookie year)


Fast forward one year to Calvin's 2nd year in 2008 and put them side by side:
Marshall: 104/1,265/6
Calvin: 78/1,331/12

Calvin finished WR3 that year in my PPR league and Marshall finished WR8.

2009 Calvin had a rookie QB who didn't even play the whole season. And, Calvin got dinged up with injuries. Marshall finished WR7 in my league and Calvin finished WR26.

I'll give to you that Calvin had a rough year. Not terrible, but rough considering his talent level.

However, Marshall has never finished better than WR7 in my league. Calvin finished top 3 behind only Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald in just his 2nd season with 3 different starting QBs throwing to him. The separation between the two WRs is even greater in nonPPR leagues since that year Calvin DOUBLED Marshall's TDs. To say that you are still waiting for Calvin to arrive is just looking through cracked lenses in my opinion. Calvin HAS arrived. Calvin has already shown himself to be able to dominate even without a decent surrounding cast. A player has one season where he gets a little nicked up and is also relying on a rookie QB to throw to him and doesn't put up elite numbers and people are downgrading him? Simply amazing to me.

For discussion purposes, I can see "discussing" this topic. However, like discussing the history of the Titanic, the outcome is already ordained before the topic begins. Calvin is flat out the better WR to own and it isn't even close, for so many reasons. But, since people seemed to be more interested in the numbers, I thought I'd lay them out above. Most owners here play in 12 team leagues. Marshall finished in the bottom half of WR1's for a 12 team league in ALL of his "elite" seasons while Calvin has already finished top 3. The reality is that Marshall is a good WR while Calvin is a great one.
My only point is that for many years people have been on the wrong side of the coin on this one. If you keep flipping a coin eventually it will land on heads. So even if Calvin is capable of outproducing Marshall, the point is that this expectation should be tempered. Marshall may have more risk, but he also generally has much better value - and that cannot be argued.

Kris I want you to look back in all of your leagues, and I want you to respond with the draft spot that both players were drafted at ... I can almost guarantee you Calvin was drafted WAY HIGHER every time.


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