Is everyone a sell high?

[KMA]

Is there anyone out there content with his team? At what point is a player considered a hold? Is everyone a sell high? Who are some guys considered holds? (Barring some ridiculous offer or glaring need) I see countless posts involving guys like Graham, Rice, TRich, and Stafford with posters screaming sell high! When do you hold and win a title?

[pack4ever22]

first off, thats a solid team, i wouldn't change much. second stafford is definitely not a sell high right now, his value is probably slightly lower than it should be. graham as in jimmy? if thats the case i don't think he's a sell high either, there are only 2 te's that will give you a sizable advantage at the position every week and graham is one of them.

[rubber_duck]

A few years ago I was in a 16 team dynasty league that ended up being dominated by 1 team. By hook or crook he ended up with an incredibly solid and deep team for a 16 teamer. In those special cases I would say there is no need to sell high. That team already had top players at every position. There was absolutly no reasonable gain to be expected. (Except for the enjoyment of trading ... it is a game after all.)

In the typical case, though, I would say any player can be had for the right price. Free market economics at its finest.

[Chris_R]

Some people treat dynasty like the stock market, some people prefer to draft and develop players like a real team, the beauty in Dynasty is you run your team the way you want to. There is a time and place for everything. For instance, look at where Laurent Robinson was valued in those last few weeks for the Cowboys, now is he even owned? Those type of guys should probably be moved for fear of something like that happening. But people saying "Sell high" on David Wilson, well some people drafted him with the intent of using him on their team, so they were patient the entire rookie season, and they want to give him a shot. That was the reason they took him, and not everybody wants to flip any and every player who has extreme hype.


I'm probably somewhere in the middle. For instance in the league in my sig, I'm not trading my top 3 WR's under any circumstances, same with Jimmy Graham. That's because the shelf life those guys have left is way too valuable. But Lynch and Foster I'll listen to offers for. I'm not openly looking to move them, but I'll at least entertain it. Young guys that I drafted as rookies because I really believed in, that haven't started to get steam until year 2, I'm not interested in moving. I could probably move Lamar Miller and David Wilson in 1 league I own both and get a nice haul, but I don't see the point. I took them for a reason, so the "sell high" concept isn't something I'm interested in there. They could both fall flat on their face, but it happens. A lot of fantasy football is about projections, but once you field a team you are personally comfortable with, you don't have to shuffle around guys that may gain or lose value.

I try to churn the bottom of my roster. Turn 3 bottom waiver claims at one point into 1 valuable player and so on. I'm typically not trading young studs, but I will trade stud RB's once they approach 28 to try and get elite value while I can(I traded MJD last off-season in probably 5 different leagues).

[ccj]

Well, you sell high when you think it's artificial and temporary. If you think David Wilson is a potential RB1 then you hold him because the sell high isn't artificial. Also some guys value may peak (say ARod after the 2011 season), but since their value is both real and steady you are likely holding.

That's not to say you wouldn't trade either of the above examples if you had depth at the position and wanted to improve in other spots, but I don't think just because their values are very high I'd automatically look to sell.

[SpaderDude]

Some people treat dynasty like the stock market, some people prefer to draft and develop players like a real team, the beauty in Dynasty is you run your team the way you want to. There is a time and place for everything. For instance, look at where Laurent Robinson was valued in those last few weeks for the Cowboys, now is he even owned? Those type of guys should probably be moved for fear of something like that happening. But people saying "Sell high" on David Wilson, well some people drafted him with the intent of using him on their team, so they were patient the entire rookie season, and they want to give him a shot. That was the reason they took him, and not everybody wants to flip any and every player who has extreme hype.


I'm probably somewhere in the middle. For instance in the league in my sig, I'm not trading my top 3 WR's under any circumstances, same with Jimmy Graham. That's because the shelf life those guys have left is way too valuable. But Lynch and Foster I'll listen to offers for. I'm not openly looking to move them, but I'll at least entertain it. Young guys that I drafted as rookies because I really believed in, that haven't started to get steam until year 2, I'm not interested in moving. I could probably move Lamar Miller and David Wilson in 1 league I own both and get a nice haul, but I don't see the point. I took them for a reason, so the "sell high" concept isn't something I'm interested in there. They could both fall flat on their face, but it happens. A lot of fantasy football is about projections, but once you field a team you are personally comfortable with, you don't have to shuffle around guys that may gain or lose value.

I try to churn the bottom of my roster. Turn 3 bottom waiver claims at one point into 1 valuable player and so on. I'm typically not trading young studs, but I will trade stud RB's once they approach 28 to try and get elite value while I can(I traded MJD last off-season in probably 5 different leagues).

Nicely stated. We could all use a lesson like this. I know I'm guilty at times, entertaining trades "for entertaining trades" sake. Sometimes, we should just sit back and enjoy what we've built. Easier said than done though as many (self included) love the thrill of a deal.

[RobertBobson]

A few years ago I was in a 16 team dynasty league that ended up being dominated by 1 team. By hook or crook he ended up with an incredibly solid and deep team for a 16 teamer. In those special cases I would say there is no need to sell high. That team already had top players at every position. There was absolutly no reasonable gain to be expected. (Except for the enjoyment of trading ... it is a game after all.)

In the typical case, though, I would say any player can be had for the right price. Free market economics at its finest.

That Reminds me of Kris K's team, on the forums. He has a 16 man team, that at one point was the single strongest fantasy team I think I've ever seen, for a 12 man league, maybe even 10 man. Like, it was so good, it should have been the best team in an 8 man league. He had elite back ups at every position, and multiple first round draft picks.


His team was so good, that for the sake of the league, he had a dispersal draft with like the league's worst 8 team, where he gave up some of his back ups and draft picks. Even after the dispersal, he still had by far the best team in the league, he just didn't have infinite back ups, and actually had to work the waiver wire, for the first time in years.


It was this team, that really sold me on the "sell high" philosophy. Kris never stood pat. He targeted young players he liked, and sold players the moment he thought they'd achieved their peak value. His team eventually got so good, that he could afford to hold on to players past their peak value, but I saw the power of his philosophy. Now, you have to be good at identifying young and undervalued talent, to make this system pay off, but I think it's truly is the way to go, if you want to build a dynasty.


I think there are two ways that "sell high" is used. One is if you think a player's perceived value is higher than their true value. For me, Ryan Mathews was this for a long while, and Chris Johnson is this right now. I think this definition of Sell high is the traditional one, that is used mostly on the forums

The second sell high, Kris K's stated way, is selling when a player when they have achieved their maximum perceived value. It doesn't matter if they are a stud, in fact, it's better if they are a stud,because they you can extract the maximum out of them, in terms of young players. I think Calvin Johnson before last season was at his absolute peak value, and I think that would have been the time to sell him, if you got an attractive offer. It's hard to imagine him becoming worth more than he was last offseason. I think his value has plateaued now, and will stay at this level for a while, but I can't imagine it going up from here.


It doesn't have to be a player as drastically good as Calvin. You might think Alfred Morris is at his peak value right now, and can only go down from here. Or whomever. this style is tricky because you have to both judge correctly that a player is at his peak, and you have to target the right player's who's value have room to grow.

[Typhus]

Good thread.
My rules are simple, I never trade a young RB thats in a good situation, for a current example David Wilson.
The payoff is huge if he succeeds and that far out weighs the loss if he doesnt live up to the hype, and looses trade value. Young RBs in good situations are extreme top side values that can be cornerstones for your franchise and are of the rarest commodities in the game. They are the highest yielding return on your investment, and having young RBs that are already performing.. T-Rich, D. Martin, Alfred Morris, are the anchors for your Dynasty teams future.

Now WRs on the other hand I will move, a good example is Cecil Shorts. Guy had a decent FF season, hes young, looks talented to potential buyers, and I hate his situation.
Heres an example of a player that I would personally trade away for the right player.

[Pac_Eddy]

This is a good thread.

I would say players that are elite and can be reasonably expected to stay there are 'holds' and not 'sell highs'. TEs like Jimmy Graham or Gronk I would hold & enjoy the advantage over the rest of the league. Same with Calvin Johnson or Aaron Rodgers.

When it comes to RBs, we're always wary of the bottom dropping out like with Shaun Alexander a few years back. Age & workload is a much bigger deal with RBs. I'd sell high on McFadden, MJD, but definitely hold on Wilson, Trent Richardson & Doug Martin.

[TheOracle]

I treat my teams more like stock that I'm always trying to improve overall. The reason for me is this: fantasy football playoffs are too random to ever be guaranteed a win. Case in point, my Red Team, in it's 2nd year, won the championship. It's probably the best team in the league because of the depth (most "perfect lineup" points over the course of the season), but it's by no means a juggernaut, and with injuries to Harvin, Bowe, Mathews, etc. it probably wasn't the best team during the playoffs. On the other hand, my blue team, which is an unholy juggernaut that outscored the second best team by 300 points in non-PPR, went 13-1, and broke all of the league records, got bumped in the first round.

The point, for me, is that there's never a move you can make that guarantees you anything, so I'm going to constantly try to build juggernauts that make the favorite or one of the favorites every year, that way when things do happen to fall my way in Weeks 15 and 16, I'll always be in the playoffs to make it count.

I'm willing to sell any player if I can get more than I think they're worth AND it helps my team. Nobody is ever automatically a hold for me, ever. That doesn't mean I'm constantly trading my best guys away- look at Gronkowski in my Blue team. There's essentially nothing you can do to make it worth giving him up for me other than Graham+something. Sure, trading me LeSean McCoy and a first is more than fair value for him, but I can't do that unless I know I can turn around and get Graham, because swapping Gronk for another RB makes my team worse.

As for some of the specific examples, I don't think Wilson's value has peaked. Maybe in certain circles here it has, but I can't imagine anybody is going to give me something that makes it worth moving him. Stafford was a sell high after 2011 maybe. You could have gotten Luck/RG3 + something for him. Jimmy Graham? I don't really get that one.

[Chris_R]

The second sell high, Kris K's stated way, is selling when a player when they have achieved their maximum perceived value. It doesn't matter if they are a stud, in fact, it's better if they are a stud,because they you can extract the maximum out of them, in terms of young players. I think Calvin Johnson before last season was at his absolute peak value, and I think that would have been the time to sell him, if you got an attractive offer. It's hard to imagine him becoming worth more than he was last offseason. I think his value has plateaued now, and will stay at this level for a while, but I can't imagine it going up from here.
.

See, I guess this is where I disagree. Not everyone is worth trying to "flip" or turn into more pieces. I just don't see any point in moving Calvin before last year. He was like 25 years old, that's maybe 8-10 more years of elite WR1 production, many of which will be top 2 years where he's a huge advantage. Why trade that? I don't need a bunch of depth on my bench to replace Calvin and what he brings to the table. Same for AJG. That's why in my league, I'm not trading my WR's or listening to any offers. Now granted, if someone offered Harvin or DT + a bunch of pieces for 1 of them then sure, but nobody is going to do that.


Just for an example, what would have been a good deal to consider for Calvin before last year? If you get a guy like Calvin at age 23, you have an elite, high end WR1 who particuliary stays healthy, for 10 years. That's 1 line-up spot to not worry about. I can't think of much that would be better, now I'm all for churning mid level guys and packaging them to get a Calvin, but once you have Calvin that's primary objective #1 for Dynasty and you pretty much won. I think you can over trade too and have it blow up in your face sometimes. RB's I may look at different, but WR's play for a long time, look at Reggie Wayne, if I have a guy I can lock into 1 starting slot for years I'm good and I'm focusing on my bench at that point.

[RobertBobson]

See, I guess this is where I disagree. Not everyone is worth trying to "flip" or turn into more pieces. I just don't see any point in moving Calvin before last year. He was like 25 years old, that's maybe 8-10 more years of elite WR1 production, many of which will be top 2 years where he's a huge advantage. Why trade that? I don't need a bunch of depth on my bench to replace Calvin and what he brings to the table. Same for AJG. That's why in my league, I'm not trading my WR's or listening to any offers. Now granted, if someone offered Harvin or DT + a bunch of pieces for 1 of them then sure, but nobody is going to do that.

Well, I meant before this past season, but lets use your example of when he's 25, his value was just as absurd then. A very reasonable package you could have gotten for him would be something like Harvin, a top 3 first round pick, and Spiller. In fact at the time, that would have probably looked ridiculously light. But now you'd have Harvin, Green (or Julio) and spiller, and your team would be in much better shape now, than with Calvin alone.


I'm not saying this tactic is without risk. Instead of Harvin it could have been Maclin. Instead of drafting AJ Green you could have drafted Ingram. So maybe it's not for everyone. But if you are skilled at evaluating young player's potential, it's the best way to build a juggernaut.

[KMA]

But do you stop after the Calvin trade or continue to shop AJ and Spiller after they blow up? There has to be an end somewhere, at least for some stretch of time, that you look at a player and say, you're a keeper. Calvin seems like that guy unless you have glaring needs or receive an insane proposal.

[RobertBobson]

look at Gronkowski in my Blue team. There's essentially nothing you can do to make it worth giving him up for me other than Graham+something. Sure, trading me LeSean McCoy and a first is more than fair value for him, but I can't do that unless I know I can turn around and get Graham, because swapping Gronk for another RB makes my team worse.

When people talk about Untradeable players, they usually reference someone like McCoy, Calvin, Aarod, AJ green or whomever. For me, QB's and WRs, even the best ones, are extremely tradable, because their value can be replicated by many players potentially. Elite Rb's are harder to replicate, but because of their short shelf lives and value windows, I'm also willing to trade even the most elite ones.

THere are only two players that I would come close to calling untradable, simply because the gap between Gronk and Graham and even Hernandez, let alone anyone else, is so very large. I keep hearing this old tune about no TE is worth that much and their values are volatile and blah blah blah. i think it's a bunch of rubbish. I think gronk is the 1.01 for a start up, because he puts up elite WR1 numbers at a position where studs are scarce. I hope people keep undervaluing him, I'll be happy to continue scooping him up at the end of the first again this year.

I don't think Gronk is untradable, but it's difficult for me to imagine someone making a package attractive enough for me to want to trade him, unless I was in a full out rebuild.

[RobertBobson]

But do you stop after the Calvin trade or continue to shop AJ and Spiller after they blow up? There has to be an end somewhere, at least for some stretch of time, that you look at a player and say, you're a keeper. Calvin seems like that guy unless you have glaring needs or receive an insane proposal.

I"m shopping AJ Green right now in a league i'm competitive in, to answer your question. I don't think Spiller is at his peak value yet, so I'm not trying to trade him.

The only time I think the process stops is if your team is sufficiently deep that you can afford to hold onto a player past his peak value.