You Should Be Up on Josh Downs

[Anteaters]

Downs
Someone I'd be happy to hold, but unwilling to pay much to acquire. One of three dozen very talented real world NFL WRs who are not in a situation that will allow them to be reliable fantasy high-volume producers. I'm probably selling for an early 2nd, holding over a late 2nd. Not buying for anything more than a 3rd ... and I'd have to think hard about giving that up for him.

I'm up on Downs, but down on the probability he'll ever be a difference maker on a fantasy contender. However, I really wish one of my favorite NFL teams would sign him because I think he can help an NFL team win.

[TheTroll]

Downs
Someone I'd be happy to hold, but unwilling to pay much to acquire. One of three dozen very talented real world NFL WRs who are not in a situation that will allow them to be reliable fantasy high-volume producers. I'm probably selling for an early 2nd, holding over a late 2nd. Not buying for anything more than a 3rd ... and I'd have to think hard about giving that up for him.

I'm up on Downs, but down on the probability he'll ever be a difference maker on a fantasy contender. However, I really wish one of my favorite NFL teams would sign him because I think he can help an NFL team win.

This is well said. If you own him, he’s a hold just to see if there is a breakout.

[Shcritters]

Downs
Someone I'd be happy to hold, but unwilling to pay much to acquire. One of three dozen very talented real world NFL WRs who are not in a situation that will allow them to be reliable fantasy high-volume producers. I'm probably selling for an early 2nd, holding over a late 2nd. Not buying for anything more than a 3rd ... and I'd have to think hard about giving that up for him.

I'm up on Downs, but down on the probability he'll ever be a difference maker on a fantasy contender. However, I really wish one of my favorite NFL teams would sign him because I think he can help an NFL team win.

X3. Was going to say something along these lines, but you said it very well.

[NathanielWegman]

If you can afford to stash him, he’s definitely a buy. If your roster doesn’t give you the opportunity to have alot of depth, I’d probably try and move on, but not for less than a mid 2nd or earlier

[FantasyFreak]

If you can afford to stash him, he’s definitely a buy. If your roster doesn’t give you the opportunity to have alot of depth, I’d probably try and move on, but not for less than a mid 2nd or earlier

Good point. Roster sizes definitely matter with players like Downs.

[MacDaddy123]

Just drafted Downs at 11.07 in my current 14 team SF TEP startup.
Pretty happy about that, it was between Downs and Romeo Doubs, who went the very next pick.

[BigJoeWall72]

Someone I'd be happy to hold, but unwilling to pay much to acquire. One of three dozen very talented real world NFL WRs who are not in a situation that will allow them to be reliable fantasy high-volume producers. I'm probably selling for an early 2nd, holding over a late 2nd. Not buying for anything more than a 3rd ... and I'd have to think hard about giving that up for him.

I'm up on Downs, but down on the probability he'll ever be a difference maker on a fantasy contender. However, I really wish one of my favorite NFL teams would sign him because I think he can help an NFL team win.

As others have said, I think this is a pretty spot on post. I have Downs in 3/3 leagues, and have not been offered enough to move him yet. The fact that there have been multiple offers does kind of confirm to me that he did look pretty good last season, even fighting through an injury.

Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems like the general consensus is that he won't/can't be a difference maker, and I think I disagree. My disagreement is more with how we define that phrase though. If you're looking for Downs to be a WR1 or high end WR2, I don't know that that will ever pan out while he is in Indy...

But if your WR group is strong enough and you can bank on Downs each week for at least 4-60 as previously mentioned, that could be a huge difference maker from your WR5 slot. I know those stats are not exciting by any means, but I think he is the kind of player that will provide the consistency that I personally crave from my WR4-5-6 spots, especially if there are some spike weeks mixed in as well.

[Anteaters]

Someone I'd be happy to hold, but unwilling to pay much to acquire. One of three dozen very talented real world NFL WRs who are not in a situation that will allow them to be reliable fantasy high-volume producers. I'm probably selling for an early 2nd, holding over a late 2nd. Not buying for anything more than a 3rd ... and I'd have to think hard about giving that up for him.

I'm up on Downs, but down on the probability he'll ever be a difference maker on a fantasy contender. However, I really wish one of my favorite NFL teams would sign him because I think he can help an NFL team win.

As others have said, I think this is a pretty spot on post. I have Downs in 3/3 leagues, and have not been offered enough to move him yet. The fact that there have been multiple offers does kind of confirm to me that he did look pretty good last season, even fighting through an injury.

Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems like the general consensus is that he won't/can't be a difference maker, and I think I disagree. My disagreement is more with how we define that phrase though. If you're looking for Downs to be a WR1 or high end WR2, I don't know that that will ever pan out while he is in Indy...

But if your WR group is strong enough and you can bank on Downs each week for at least 4-60 as previously mentioned, that could be a huge difference maker from your WR5 slot. I know those stats are not exciting by any means, but I think he is the kind of player that will provide the consistency that I personally crave from my WR4-5-6 spots, especially if there are some spike weeks mixed in as well.

Even at the last starting Flex spot on a roster, I'm not sure if Downs could be called a difference maker.

In the league for team 2 in my sig, Downs played in every game and averaged 10.325pts/gm, good for 53rd best avg for a WR in the league. Wan'dale Robinson averaged 9.746pts/gm. Gabe Davis was 11.166pts/gm. I don't consider those averages to be difference-making.

I could start several RBs no one considers to be difference-making, and they would score more than Downs. AJDillon averaged 11.473pts/gm. Kareem Hunt was 11.804pts/gm. KHerbert was 13.082. Singletary averaged 13.416 pts.gm.

If Downs scores fantasy points at the same rate as he did in 2023, he would not start on any of my fantasy teams. He's a hold and hope for better player. But with Indy drafting a WR early in 2024, I'm not sure they plan on giving him more target share. I'd hate to see him fail to produce better stats, because I think he's talented. But he needs more opportunity and it doesn't appear to be coming his way.

IMO, Downs is a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency type player right now.

[Shcritters]

Agreed with you Ant. Unfortunately he’s in the tier of players who COULD theoretically be a difference maker if he was in an offense that featured him more and/or had more passing volume (like Addison?), but that’s not happening until a second contract.

I could see him in the mold of Elijah Moore (but less of a head case). Good talent, bad situation to maximize his fantasy value.

[blemly]

Matt Harmon’s latest Reception Perception podcast featured an extensive discussion on Downs. Harmon was absolutely gushing on his route running, contested catch ability, and off script/second read catches. He put up 68/771 as a rookie and I would expect him to beat the those numbers this year.

[wickerkat1212]

Matt Harmon’s latest Reception Perception podcast featured an extensive discussion on Downs. Harmon was absolutely gushing on his route running, contested catch ability, and off script/second read catches. He put up 68/771 as a rookie and I would expect him to beat the those numbers this year.

Glad to hear it. I've been up and down on Downs, moved one share, kept another. Harmon does good work.

[Cameron Giles]

Matt Harmon’s latest Reception Perception podcast featured an extensive discussion on Downs. Harmon was absolutely gushing on his route running, contested catch ability, and off script/second read catches. He put up 68/771 as a rookie and I would expect him to beat the those numbers this year.

An interesting note I just found on Josh Downs, courtesy of the
@FantasyPtsData
Suite:

331 of Downs’ 771 receiving yards came on plays where he was not the first-read or designed target, that was the highest rate in the NFL.

In games Downs suited up for, he accounted for 33% of Indy’s non first-read receiving yards and 20% of the IND non 1R targets.

CeeDee Lamb and Puka Nacua were the only other WRs who hit both a 20% TGT and 25% RECYD mark.

To me, this backs what was apparent when watching Downs — he is incredible at getting open on off-script plays. Could be huge with Anthony Richardson at QB.

[tstafford]

Matt Harmon’s latest Reception Perception podcast featured an extensive discussion on Downs. Harmon was absolutely gushing on his route running, contested catch ability, and off script/second read catches. He put up 68/771 as a rookie and I would expect him to beat the those numbers this year.

Glad to hear it. I've been up and down on Downs, moved one share, kept another. Harmon does good work.

Harmon does great work for sure. Much like Matt Waldman. But at times they are way out on limbs.

[blemly]

Matt Harmon’s latest Reception Perception podcast featured an extensive discussion on Downs. Harmon was absolutely gushing on his route running, contested catch ability, and off script/second read catches. He put up 68/771 as a rookie and I would expect him to beat the those numbers this year.

Glad to hear it. I've been up and down on Downs, moved one share, kept another. Harmon does good work.

Harmon does great work for sure. Much like Matt Waldman. But at times they are way out on limbs.

I’m not a big Waldman guy, but I really respect Harmon’s work and that he more or less stays in his lane with WR. Not all of the guys that he has loved over the years have hit, but he does appear to be onto something fairly predictive with Reception Perception.

He did say that Downs shared a decent amount of similarities with Sterling Shepard, who never really “hit” but did seem snakebit by injuries throughout his career.

[murphysxm]

I have a hard time buying into a year 2 improvement from a wr getting more competition and a QB change that concerns me for his skill set. It’s my Colts so I hope I am wrong, but AR and Gardner are vastly different so last year comparisons are tough for me.