Why Rome Odunze is the WR2 in the class

[MacDaddy123]

Sorry, can't buy in. I am not an Odunze hater, but he is solidly the WR3 in this class IMO.
I have Nabers in the same tier as MHJ, and Rome is not in that tier.
I have Rome by himself in tier 2.

I had Nabers over MHJ pre-draft, but had to put MHJ over Nabers after the draft, dues to landing spots.
For me, Nabers/MHJ was always the discussion, not Nabers/Odunze.

If listing Nabers as a slot WR is meant as a slight, I would point out that Justin Jefferson was passed on by the Eagles at pick 21 because he was only a "slot" receiver. I'd also point out that CD Lamb does most of his damage from the slot, as did Cooper Kupp.

So if you want to comp Rome to DeAndre Hopkins and Davante Adams, I'll comp Nabers with Jefferson, Lamb, Kupp.
Though Nabers original comp has been Ja'Marr Chase, who is not locked into the slot.

You like Rome, that's fine, he is a very good WR. I'll plant my flag with Nabers, though neither one lucked out with the landing spot like MHJ did.
I wound up with 3 Nabers shares at 1.03/1.04/1.05, and 2 Odunze shares at 1.06/1.08.
Ultimately, time will tell.

[Ruggenater]

The “dip” came for JSN because of his year 1 production AND because the Seahawks elected to bring Lockett back this year. If the latter hadn’t happened, I’m guessing his value would’ve been more stable year-over-year. The same could happen with Odunze, but it’ll require all three receivers coming back in 2025 and Odunze clearly being viewed as the third option by the team.

[MacDaddy123]

The “dip” came for JSN because of his year 1 production AND because the Seahawks elected to bring Lockett back this year. If the latter hadn’t happened, I’m guessing his value would’ve been more stable year-over-year. The same could happen with Odunze, but it’ll require all three receivers coming back in 2025 and Odunze clearly being viewed as the third option by the team.

Coincidentally, both JSN and Odunze will have the same offensive coordinator in their rookie seasons.
Shane Waldron was Seahawks OC in 2023, and is now Bears OC in 2024.

[moishetreats]

Sorry, can't buy in. I am not an Odunze hater, but he is solidly the WR3 in this class IMO.
I have Nabers in the same tier as MHJ, and Rome is not in that tier.
I have Rome by himself in tier 2.

I had Nabers over MHJ pre-draft, but had to put MHJ over Nabers after the draft, dues to landing spots.
For me, Nabers/MHJ was always the discussion, not Nabers/Odunze.

If listing Nabers as a slot WR is meant as a slight, I would point out that Justin Jefferson was passed on by the Eagles at pick 21 because he was only a "slot" receiver. I'd also point out that CD Lamb does most of his damage from the slot, as did Cooper Kupp.

So if you want to comp Rome to DeAndre Hopkins and Davante Adams, I'll comp Nabers with Jefferson, Lamb, Kupp.
Though Nabers original comp has been Ja'Marr Chase, who is not locked into the slot.

You like Rome, that's fine, he is a very good WR. I'll plant my flag with Nabers, though neither one lucked out with the landing spot like MHJ did.
I wound up with 3 Nabers shares at 1.03/1.04/1.05, and 2 Odunze shares at 1.06/1.08.
Ultimately, time will tell.

All ^this for me.

FWIW, I like Odunze's landing spot better than Nabers'. I'm thrilled to have him tied to Williams for a number of years, and the NYG QB situation is a mess. I don't expect monster stats from either in 2024, of course. That being said, I'm still with MacDaddy123 all the way here.

[trc]

Not you (you aren't of the mindset) but this mentality is something I find annoying in fantasy now. We have a whole host of newer players treating dynasty like they've been told to treat the stock market - churn and trade constantly. Doesn't work for 99.999999% of people in the stock market and doesn't in dynasty either. Your teams aren't your "portfolio." Tired of the nonsense.

And unless you play in leagues full of Tacos, you aren't getting Odunze "on the dip." No knowledgeable owner is going to sell Odunze next off season, when he didn't put up a JJ/Chase season due to a crowded room. Especially, when next off season we will start hearing things about how Keenan is out etc. The whole premise of "getting Odunze later" is reliant upon someone being willing to part with them. He isn't a share of stock. There is only 1 of him in your leagues.

This on SO many levels.

I'll add one more thing: Most people who get Odunze aren't so dumb that they don't realize there's real target competition in Chicago. In other words, if you're buying Odunze now, it's almost assuredly anticipating that he'll start contributing meaningfully in Year 2. So you're now selling him after Year 1 if he doesn't contribute meaningfully. The Year 1 projection was baked into his draft cost.

All of this applied to JSN, even before the resigning of Lockett. Yet his value still dipped.
Some of his naysayers will say he was overvalued to begin with, and his value is more or less appropriate now.

I guess the same discussion will unfold about Rome.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Not you (you aren't of the mindset) but this mentality is something I find annoying in fantasy now. We have a whole host of newer players treating dynasty like they've been told to treat the stock market - churn and trade constantly. Doesn't work for 99.999999% of people in the stock market and doesn't in dynasty either. Your teams aren't your "portfolio." Tired of the nonsense.

And unless you play in leagues full of Tacos, you aren't getting Odunze "on the dip." No knowledgeable owner is going to sell Odunze next off season, when he didn't put up a JJ/Chase season due to a crowded room. Especially, when next off season we will start hearing things about how Keenan is out etc. The whole premise of "getting Odunze later" is reliant upon someone being willing to part with them. He isn't a share of stock. There is only 1 of him in your leagues.

This on SO many levels.

I'll add one more thing: Most people who get Odunze aren't so dumb that they don't realize there's real target competition in Chicago. In other words, if you're buying Odunze now, it's almost assuredly anticipating that he'll start contributing meaningfully in Year 2. So you're now selling him after Year 1 if he doesn't contribute meaningfully. The Year 1 projection was baked into his draft cost.

All of this applied to JSN, even before the resigning of Lockett. Yet his value still dipped.
Some of his naysayers will say he was overvalued to begin with, and his value is more or less appropriate now.

I guess the same discussion will unfold about Rome.

I think he's a buy. Guy is going to have a great year and pay off for those who drafted him. Planting the flag, his value is going to increase over the course of this season.

If people are down on Rome, I'd be buying him as well. WR3 for me, but it's close between him and Nabers. Kind of like chocolate or vanilla ice cream. They're both good, just a flavor preference.

[trc]

This on SO many levels.

I'll add one more thing: Most people who get Odunze aren't so dumb that they don't realize there's real target competition in Chicago. In other words, if you're buying Odunze now, it's almost assuredly anticipating that he'll start contributing meaningfully in Year 2. So you're now selling him after Year 1 if he doesn't contribute meaningfully. The Year 1 projection was baked into his draft cost.

All of this applied to JSN, even before the resigning of Lockett. Yet his value still dipped.
Some of his naysayers will say he was overvalued to begin with, and his value is more or less appropriate now.

I guess the same discussion will unfold about Rome.

I think he's a buy. Guy is going to have a great year and pay off for those who drafted him. Planting the flag, his value is going to increase over the course of this season.

If people are down on Rome, I'd be buying him as well. WR3 for me, but it's close between him and Nabers. Kind of like chocolate or vanilla ice cream. They're both good, just a flavor preference.

Fully agreed, with rookie fever in mind he could come rather cheap.

[Cameron Giles]

All of this applied to JSN, even before the resigning of Lockett. Yet his value still dipped.
Some of his naysayers will say he was overvalued to begin with, and his value is more or less appropriate now.

I guess the same discussion will unfold about Rome.

I think he's a buy. Guy is going to have a great year and pay off for those who drafted him. Planting the flag, his value is going to increase over the course of this season.

If people are down on Rome, I'd be buying him as well. WR3 for me, but it's close between him and Nabers. Kind of like chocolate or vanilla ice cream. They're both good, just a flavor preference.

Fully agreed, with rookie fever in mind he could come rather cheap.

His Reception Perception was also pretty solid as well.

[gogobradyarm]

I never understood why people immediately started fading Odunze post draft due to landing spot.

I LOVE the landing spot tied to Caleb for his career. Keenan may only last one season and DJ Moore will settle into his WR2 spot where he belongs or they may need to move on for cap reasons.

Right or wrong - people started fading it because they don't like the outlook for '24. We can sit here today and say it doesn't matter because we are playing dynasty. But I promise you if Odunze doesn't have a productive rookie season his value will slip. A mediocre rookie season seems possible - easy to see how he is rookie WR5 or lower in terms of season long production. I heard a prominent analyst (redraft and dynasty guy) who said "Odunze got JSN'd" with the landing spot. That says it all. Folks have gotten very impatient. Of course the difference here is Odunze is a better prospect than JSN ever was.

To be clear - I'm not saying this is the right way to look at. All I'm saying is that's why people are fading him. (Explanation not excuse). My take - JSN is a buy right now and Odunze will be too if he dips.

FWIW - I'm not waiting on the dip, I'm taking Odunze at 1.05 in SF unless I need a QB.

Not you (you aren't of the mindset) but this mentality is something I find annoying in fantasy now. We have a whole host of newer players treating dynasty like they've been told to treat the stock market - churn and trade constantly. Doesn't work for 99.999999% of people in the stock market and doesn't in dynasty either. Your teams aren't your "portfolio." Tired of the nonsense.

And unless you play in leagues full of Tacos, you aren't getting Odunze "on the dip." No knowledgeable owner is going to sell Odunze next off season, when he didn't put up a JJ/Chase season due to a crowded room. Especially, when next off season we will start hearing things about how Keenan is out etc. The whole premise of "getting Odunze later" is reliant upon someone being willing to part with them. He isn't a share of stock. There is only 1 of him in your leagues.

They say 73.6% of stats are made up . I'm joking, but I play dynasty like the stock market, and it's worked well for me. Not all the time, but my team is a perennial favorite and I usually have a couple extra firsts from making numerous value trades during the season and acquiring injured players.

That said, I fully agree, if you miss out on Odunze this draft, you're not going to get a discount next year when Keenan Allen is a free agent and we're entering year 2 of Caleb Williams. I don't think I could live with my dynasty self, if I took Nabers over Odunze, based on general consensus that Nabers is the #2. I just see a more well rounded player in Odunze with a high ceiling.

Another thought, when AJB came out, I was super high on him in the pre draft process. When the Titans drafted him, Consensus dropped him due to a bad landing spot even though he was regarded as one of the most well rounded WR's and a great route runner. I also had Justin Jefferson as being a very high floor player with good size, excellent route running, and well rounded. I can't help but follow my intuition, and feel that Odunze is the next great WR that falls (to 1.03 lol) given the other players/situation in the draft. I can understand it, MHJ is a stud in his own right, as should Naber be, but when I watch Nabers, I don't get the tinglies...that all Odunze.

[Shcritters]

So the question on Odunze is if you’re willing to pay MHJr/Nabers level prices. Anyone with the 1.06 (Caleb, MHJr, Daniels, Nabers, Bowers in SF/TE Prem drafts) isn’t selling for anything less than early 1st prices because in any other draft he’d be a 1.01-1.04 pick. I asked about those picks and was told ‘it would need to be an offer that would blow me away for me to trade the pick’. I was thinking of offering 2.02 (because this draft is DEEP until about 2.05/2.06) + 25 late 1st… and pretty sure that wouldn’t get it done.

It’s a great year to have the 1.05/1.06 pick.

[Lumps]

So the question on Odunze is if you’re willing to pay MHJr/Nabers level prices. Anyone with the 1.06 (Caleb, MHJr, Daniels, Nabers, Bowers in SF/TE Prem drafts) isn’t selling for anything less than early 1st prices because in any other draft he’d be a 1.01-1.04 pick. I asked about those picks and was told ‘it would need to be an offer that would blow me away for me to trade the pick’. I was thinking of offering 2.02 (because this draft is DEEP until about 2.05/2.06) + 25 late 1st… and pretty sure that wouldn’t get it done.

It’s a great year to have the 1.05/1.06 pick.

Hate to break it to you, but people aren’t even accepting that deal in a draft where 1.6 DOESN’T land you an Odunze.

[MacDaddy123]

They say 73.6% of stats are made up . I'm joking, but I play dynasty like the stock market, and it's worked well for me. Not all the time, but my team is a perennial favorite and I usually have a couple extra firsts from making numerous value trades during the season and acquiring injured players.

That said, I fully agree, if you miss out on Odunze this draft, you're not going to get a discount next year when Keenan Allen is a free agent and we're entering year 2 of Caleb Williams. I don't think I could live with my dynasty self, if I took Nabers over Odunze, based on general consensus that Nabers is the #2. I just see a more well rounded player in Odunze with a high ceiling.

Another thought, when AJB came out, I was super high on him in the pre draft process. When the Titans drafted him, Consensus dropped him due to a bad landing spot even though he was regarded as one of the most well rounded WR's and a great route runner. I also had Justin Jefferson as being a very high floor player with good size, excellent route running, and well rounded. I can't help but follow my intuition, and feel that Odunze is the next great WR that falls (to 1.03 lol) given the other players/situation in the draft. I can understand it, MHJ is a stud in his own right, as should Naber be, but when I watch Nabers, I don't get the tinglies...that all Odunze.

I feel the same way, just reversed.
Let me ask you this: when watching college football games, do you consider the competition level?
Are you an SEC hater?

I ask because to me, the SEC competition level is MUCH higher than PAC12 competition level.
Nabers is going against top level CB's, while Odunze is not.

I mean we all know what kind of WR's LSU has produced, Jefferson, Chase, OBJ, Landry, etc.
LSU has the #1 QB and WR recruits in the country in their 2025 incoming class.

Here is the best WR's in Washington history: https://www.ranker.com/list/best-washin ... e-football

I'm sure that Odunze will be the new #1 on this list, and I like Odunze, I bought a couple shares of him at 1.06 and 1.08.
I'm just not sure how anyone who watches college football, and is totally honest about competition levels can get tingly watching PAC12 games. A conference so bad, so weak, that it is now basically defunct.

It's not just the WR's I question from the PAC12, it's everyone.
Even top lineman like Latu and Fuaga, because basically, they are not playing against guys who will be playing on Sundays.
I'm sure that Washington has faced better competition than North Dakota State, but they weren't facing SEC or even Big 10 level competition. Those are the guys they will be seeing on Sundays.

Just looking at DB's who were picked on the first 2 days of the NFL Draft (3 rounds), 7 were from the SEC, 5 from the Big 10, 4 from ACC, 2 from PAC12, and 1 from Toledo.

I'm just saying, when I watch college games, I take competition level into consideration.
Odunze is a stud, but it's a lot easier to look good against weaker competition.

[bcap88]

Not even sure if he’s above bowers tbh

[wickerkat1212]

Great thread. Man, has me trying to make trades to get more shares of Nabers and Odunze. LOL.

[gogobradyarm]

They say 73.6% of stats are made up . I'm joking, but I play dynasty like the stock market, and it's worked well for me. Not all the time, but my team is a perennial favorite and I usually have a couple extra firsts from making numerous value trades during the season and acquiring injured players.

That said, I fully agree, if you miss out on Odunze this draft, you're not going to get a discount next year when Keenan Allen is a free agent and we're entering year 2 of Caleb Williams. I don't think I could live with my dynasty self, if I took Nabers over Odunze, based on general consensus that Nabers is the #2. I just see a more well rounded player in Odunze with a high ceiling.

Another thought, when AJB came out, I was super high on him in the pre draft process. When the Titans drafted him, Consensus dropped him due to a bad landing spot even though he was regarded as one of the most well rounded WR's and a great route runner. I also had Justin Jefferson as being a very high floor player with good size, excellent route running, and well rounded. I can't help but follow my intuition, and feel that Odunze is the next great WR that falls (to 1.03 lol) given the other players/situation in the draft. I can understand it, MHJ is a stud in his own right, as should Naber be, but when I watch Nabers, I don't get the tinglies...that all Odunze.

I feel the same way, just reversed.
Let me ask you this: when watching college football games, do you consider the competition level?
Are you an SEC hater?

I ask because to me, the SEC competition level is MUCH higher than PAC12 competition level.
Nabers is going against top level CB's, while Odunze is not.

I mean we all know what kind of WR's LSU has produced, Jefferson, Chase, OBJ, Landry, etc.
LSU has the #1 QB and WR recruits in the country in their 2025 incoming class.

Here is the best WR's in Washington history: https://www.ranker.com/list/best-washin ... e-football

I'm sure that Odunze will be the new #1 on this list, and I like Odunze, I bought a couple shares of him at 1.06 and 1.08.
I'm just not sure how anyone who watches college football, and is totally honest about competition levels can get tingly watching PAC12 games. A conference so bad, so weak, that it is now basically defunct.

It's not just the WR's I question from the PAC12, it's everyone.
Even top lineman like Latu and Fuaga, because basically, they are not playing against guys who will be playing on Sundays.
I'm sure that Washington has faced better competition than North Dakota State, but they weren't facing SEC or even Big 10 level competition. Those are the guys they will be seeing on Sundays.

Just looking at DB's who were picked on the first 2 days of the NFL Draft (3 rounds), 7 were from the SEC, 5 from the Big 10, 4 from ACC, 2 from PAC12, and 1 from Toledo.

I'm just saying, when I watch college games, I take competition level into consideration.
Odunze is a stud, but it's a lot easier to look good against weaker competition.

Nabers was often going against linebackers and safeties, not top corners of the SEC. 60+% of his yardage came from the slot which dictated who was covering him. Not all bad, could translate, but I want an X that can play the other roles.

For fun, Odunze vs Top 25 teams in 2023

Michigan: 5/87
Texas: 6/125
Oregon: 8/102
Oregon State: 7/120/2
Utah: 3/111/2
USC: 5/82
Oregon: 8/128

Furthermore, Jerry Jeudy, Jameson Williams, Laquon Treadwell all played in the SEC…

Non SEC players: Cooper Kupp, Amon St Brown, Calvin Johnson, Antonio Brown, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Ceedee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Aiyuk.

Obviously, plenty of great players from the SEC, my point is that I could care less about SEC vs Non SEC.