AJB v Nabers

[The.Big.Spank]

Over the past two years in Philly, Brown has averaged 164 targets / 97 / 1,476 / 9.

There's no realistic reason to think that he won't continue a similar pace for the next two years.

There's no realistic reason to think that Nabers will do that in the next two years. And that kind of stat line is probably his (or just about any WR's) ceiling.

In a rebuild, I could argue for Nabers over AJB. On a competitive team, taking Nabers over AJB doesn't make any sense to me.

I think 97 rec / 151.5 trg / 1,476 yds / 9 td is definitely doable by year 2 for Nabers.

In any case, Imma take the better athlete and football prospect that's 6 years younger, but to I can definitely see both sides.

x2

[moishetreats]

Over the past two years in Philly, Brown has averaged 164 targets / 97 / 1,476 / 9.

There's no realistic reason to think that he won't continue a similar pace for the next two years.

There's no realistic reason to think that Nabers will do that in the next two years. And that kind of stat line is probably his (or just about any WR's) ceiling.

In a rebuild, I could argue for Nabers over AJB. On a competitive team, taking Nabers over AJB doesn't make any sense to me.

Do you see a pathway for Nabers' value to fall a bit through year 1 making an attempt to acquire him now a bit risky?

Certainly. That's always a risk with rookies -- and really with anyone. I'll say this, though. Barring a *horrific* year, most top-tier rookies retain at least most of their value entering Year 2. Say that Nabers ends up with 57-761-4. Anyone with Nabers would be disappointed. Still, I'm willing to bet that someone in the league (maybe even the original Nabers drafter) would think that a huge second-year jump is likely. In other words, yes, it's a real risk. But unless a top-tier rookie realllllly has a disastrous season, I think a lot of his value is insulated.

Of course, say that AJB has a down year and an injured year. His value could tank, too. Look at Kupp. Obviously, AJB is meaningfully younger, but a drop could happen there, too.

Bottom line: unless there is substantial risk of a massive value drop (Kyren Williams is the first player that comes to my mind), I don't worry excessively about the potential dip in value when considering guys like Nabers and AJB.

[Menace2010]

AJB is turning 27. The ageism is going too far. If I'm a contender in a 3yr window, I have absolutely no interest in this deal. We hope, we pray, we believe Nabers will be an elite WR, but AJB already is and has consistently proven it at the NFL level.

Sure, in a rebuild I'd try to trade for 1.02 (honestly, I'd try to get a little more on top). Otherwise, hold onto the elite stud WR paired with a QB that's helping him put up top tier WR stats and enjoy.

[knotts4372]

just seeing some of the numbers ppl are throwing around in here in what they are expecting from nabers, i think their are going to be a ton of disappointed fantasy owners 2 years from now. i like nabers as a player and think hes very much like garret wilson in terms of value and all but to expect more is pretty wild imo

[Dunville]

There is an awful lot of projection going on. There are also people acting like AJB is hitting his age cliff, when he is coming up 27, literally his prime.

I am a huge Nabers fan too but if I’m contending give me AJB everytime.

Also how much can Nabers value rise? If we are currently saying AJB = Nabers I’d say both are at 2 x 1st maybe a tad more. If Nabers smashes early we can add a 1st to his value in which case I’d rather pay that higher price once he has hit rather than betting the speculation/optimism.

[bigbuck22]

AJB is turning 27. The ageism is going too far. If I'm a contender in a 3yr window, I have absolutely no interest in this deal. We hope, we pray, we believe Nabers will be an elite WR, but AJB already is and has consistently proven it at the NFL level.

Sure, in a rebuild I'd try to trade for 1.02 (honestly, I'd try to get a little more on top). Otherwise, hold onto the elite stud WR paired with a QB that's helping him put up top tier WR stats and enjoy.

While I 100% agree that the ageism (26 going on 27) is out of control. The ageist group drives values down at that point. That's the biggest reason I am considering the move.

[moishetreats]

There is an awful lot of projection going on. There are also people acting like AJB is hitting his age cliff, when he is coming up 27, literally his prime.

I am a huge Nabers fan too but if I’m contending give me AJB everytime.

Also how much can Nabers value rise? If we are currently saying AJB = Nabers I’d say both are at 2 x 1st maybe a tad more. If Nabers smashes early we can add a 1st to his value in which case I’d rather pay that higher price once he has hit rather than betting the speculation/optimism.

^^^This 100% for me.

[Black Adam]

A lot of rookie fear going on in here.

Yes, while Nabers is 6 years younger, he's also a better prospect and athlete overall. It's not out of the realm of distinct possibilities he becomes AJB+; barring injury, it's what should happen.

Anti-ageists are also assuming Brown falls off when he's 30ish. He might be elite until he's 34, or he could fall off a cliff in Week 6.

There are risks in either case. FF is a game about forming and testing hypotheses.

[Menace2010]

A lot of rookie fear going on in here.

Yes, while Nabers is 6 years younger, he's also a better prospect and athlete overall. It's not out of the realm of distinct possibilities he becomes AJB+; barring injury, it's what should happen.

Anti-ageists are also assuming Brown falls off when he's 30ish. He might be elite until he's 34, or he could fall off a cliff in Week 6.

There are risks in either case. FF is a game about forming and testing hypotheses.

Right, and if you trade AJ Brown level players every time there's a player more talented and younger coming into the league you'll end up with a lot of Burks, Treadwell, Harry, C. Davis, etc. type players on your roster.

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Guys guys, what the world is going on here. Absolutely there is projection, speculation, lean into it - Thats all this is. If you can project success at a lower, early value then you will separate from consensus. If you’re comparing today’s AJB to today’s Nabers then yes absolutely pick AJB and in two years when he is 28-29 and his value is 1 to 2 x less than it is now will not have improved that asset.

Simplified, is contending is AJB. Rebuild is Nabers.

[bigbuck22]

Guys guys, what the world is going on here. Absolutely there is projection, speculation, lean into it - Thats all this is. If you can project success at a lower, early value then you will separate from consensus. If you’re comparing today’s AJB to today’s Nabers then yes absolutely pick AJB and in two years when he is 28-29 and his value is 1 to 2 x less than it is now will not have improved that asset.

Simplified, is contending is AJB. Rebuild is Nabers.

And here I am, contending but also with an eye on selling for value.

[Black Adam]

A lot of rookie fear going on in here.

Yes, while Nabers is 6 years younger, he's also a better prospect and athlete overall. It's not out of the realm of distinct possibilities he becomes AJB+; barring injury, it's what should happen.

Anti-ageists are also assuming Brown falls off when he's 30ish. He might be elite until he's 34, or he could fall off a cliff in Week 6.

There are risks in either case. FF is a game about forming and testing hypotheses.

Right, and if you trade AJ Brown level players every time there's a player more talented and younger coming into the league you'll end up with a lot of Burks, Treadwell, Harry, C. Davis, etc. type players on your roster.

I sure will.