Tank Dell - Never Not Open

[hoos89]

This is absurd, did not see this one coming. I assumed that the main pass catchers on HOU were yet to be on the roster... and Dell's size scared me away. I had some shares of Downs and didn't want to load up on small receivers (had Atwell at some points also)... but Dell appears to be a perfect fit for Stroud. He's Stroud's ARSB.

Color me wrong on this one!

Much different profile and playstyle though (Dell's 12th in the league in ADoT (13.8) compared to ARSB 84th (7.9)).

Crazy thing is this is ARSB's 3rd year in the league and he's only 5 days older than Dell.

[DrowningInTheDays]

This is absurd, did not see this one coming. I assumed that the main pass catchers on HOU were yet to be on the roster... and Dell's size scared me away. I had some shares of Downs and didn't want to load up on small receivers (had Atwell at some points also)... but Dell appears to be a perfect fit for Stroud. He's Stroud's ARSB.

Color me wrong on this one!

Redzone TDs since freshman season:

Tank Dell: 26

Quentin Johnston: 3

We should have saw this coming but I think his size scared everyone away. And, to be fair, I do think he'll struggle to stay healthy at times with his stature. But, DeVonte Smith has proven you don't need to be the biggest guy to play WR anymore.

[Anteaters]

Now on pace for 74/1171/11 in 16 games.

If that pace keeps up, it makes sense to value Dell similarly as recent WRs who had similar first and second years as Dell's rookie numbers. The TD numbers suggest it might make sense to value Dell above all these guys compared to what they produced.

2022
GWilson 147 Tar, 83 Rec, 1103 Yds, 4 TDs
Olave 119 Tar, 72 Rec, 1042 Tds, 4 TDs

2021
Devonta 104 Tar, 64 Rec, 916 Yds, 5 TDs
2nd Year 136 Tar, 95 Red, 1196 Yds, 7 TDs

JWaddle 140 Tar, 104 Rec, 1015 Yds, 6 TDs
2nd Year 117 Tar, 75 Rec, 1356 Yds, 8 TDs

2020
THiggins 108 Tar, 67 Rec, 908 Yds, 6 TDs
2nd Year 110 Tar, 74 Rec, 1091 Yds, 6 TDs

[hoos89]

Now on pace for 74/1171/11 in 16 games.

If that pace keeps up, it makes sense to value Dell similarly as recent WRs who had similar first and second years as Dell's rookie numbers.

2022
GWilson 147 Tar, 83 Rec, 1103 Yds, 4 TDs
Olave 119 Tar, 72 Rec, 1042 Tds, 4 TDs

2021
Devonta 104 Tar, 64 Rec, 916 Yds, 5 TDs
2nd Year 136 Tar, 95 Red, 1196 Yds, 7 TDs

JWaddle 140 Tar, 104 Rec, 1015 Yds, 6 TDs
2nd Year 117 Tar, 75 Rec, 1356 Yds, 8 TDs

2020
THiggins 108 Tar, 67 Rec, 908 Yds, 6 TDs
2nd Year 110 Tar, 74 Rec, 1091 Yds, 6 TDs

I think you've got to discount him at least some due to his age. 24 is really old for a rookie.

[Anteaters]

Now on pace for 74/1171/11 in 16 games.

If that pace keeps up, it makes sense to value Dell similarly as recent WRs who had similar first and second years as Dell's rookie numbers.

2022
GWilson 147 Tar, 83 Rec, 1103 Yds, 4 TDs
Olave 119 Tar, 72 Rec, 1042 Tds, 4 TDs

2021
Devonta 104 Tar, 64 Rec, 916 Yds, 5 TDs
2nd Year 136 Tar, 95 Red, 1196 Yds, 7 TDs

JWaddle 140 Tar, 104 Rec, 1015 Yds, 6 TDs
2nd Year 117 Tar, 75 Rec, 1356 Yds, 8 TDs

2020
THiggins 108 Tar, 67 Rec, 908 Yds, 6 TDs
2nd Year 110 Tar, 74 Rec, 1091 Yds, 6 TDs

I think you've got to discount him at least some due to his age. 24 is really old for a rookie.

25 years old - Waddle, Higgins, Devonta
24 years old - Dell
23 years old - Olave, GWilson

I don't see much difference in their current ages. It's not as if Dell being 25 next year will make him ready for AARP. However, if we are to discount for age, we should discount Waddle/Higgins/Devonta even more because they are older than Dell.

[hoos89]

If that pace keeps up, it makes sense to value Dell similarly as recent WRs who had similar first and second years as Dell's rookie numbers.

2022
GWilson 147 Tar, 83 Rec, 1103 Yds, 4 TDs
Olave 119 Tar, 72 Rec, 1042 Tds, 4 TDs

2021
Devonta 104 Tar, 64 Rec, 916 Yds, 5 TDs
2nd Year 136 Tar, 95 Red, 1196 Yds, 7 TDs

JWaddle 140 Tar, 104 Rec, 1015 Yds, 6 TDs
2nd Year 117 Tar, 75 Rec, 1356 Yds, 8 TDs

2020
THiggins 108 Tar, 67 Rec, 908 Yds, 6 TDs
2nd Year 110 Tar, 74 Rec, 1091 Yds, 6 TDs

I think you've got to discount him at least some due to his age. 24 is really old for a rookie.

25 years old - Waddle, Higgins, Devonta
24 years old - Dell
23 years old - Olave, GWilson

I don't see much difference in their current ages. It's not as if Dell being 25 next year will make him ready for AARP. However, if we are to discount for age, we should discount Waddle/Higgins/Devonta even more because they are older than Dell.

It's not an issue of how many seasons he has left, but a combination of (1) room to improve and (2) proof of past production. (1) I'm more comfortable projecting greater future improvement from a 21 or 22 year old rookie than from a 24 year old who is essentially already prime age...I understand that there should still be some room to improve by adding NFL experience but a 24 year old is likely to be closer to his peak production than a 21/22 year old. (2) Would you rather buy the guy who is turning 25 who has one solid rookie season under his belt or the guy who is turning 24 who has just as solid of a rookie season as well as a strong follow up year under his belt (or the guy who is turning 25 who has a solid rookie season and TWO strong follow up years)?

[Jigga94]

Now on pace for 74/1171/11 in 16 games.

If that pace keeps up, it makes sense to value Dell similarly as recent WRs who had similar first and second years as Dell's rookie numbers.

2022
GWilson 147 Tar, 83 Rec, 1103 Yds, 4 TDs
Olave 119 Tar, 72 Rec, 1042 Tds, 4 TDs

2021
Devonta 104 Tar, 64 Rec, 916 Yds, 5 TDs
2nd Year 136 Tar, 95 Red, 1196 Yds, 7 TDs

JWaddle 140 Tar, 104 Rec, 1015 Yds, 6 TDs
2nd Year 117 Tar, 75 Rec, 1356 Yds, 8 TDs

2020
THiggins 108 Tar, 67 Rec, 908 Yds, 6 TDs
2nd Year 110 Tar, 74 Rec, 1091 Yds, 6 TDs

I think you've got to discount him at least some due to his age. 24 is really old for a rookie.

Yikes 23 (or 24 as he just had his birthday) might be old for a rookie, but that doesn't mean you discount him in the grand scheme of things when he is putting on a show right in front of us.

Being an older rookie can mean a player was in college longer, at an older age and produced against inferior competition. This can make them a less desirable prospect and Tank Dell's analytics profile suffered due to this, as well as doing it at Houston U. I understand that part of things. But that all gets tossed out the window when he makes the jump and tears it up in the process. Being an older rookie might mean he has already reached his potential more than a 21 year old has, but doesn't guarantee it.

Age in dynasty I start to take notice
QB-30+
RB-25
WR-27/28
TE- not sure there even is one

My main concern is still size, but he really seems to be nailing that TY Hilton comp

[Jigga94]

I think you've got to discount him at least some due to his age. 24 is really old for a rookie.

25 years old - Waddle, Higgins, Devonta
24 years old - Dell
23 years old - Olave, GWilson

I don't see much difference in their current ages. It's not as if Dell being 25 next year will make him ready for AARP. However, if we are to discount for age, we should discount Waddle/Higgins/Devonta even more because they are older than Dell.

It's not an issue of how many seasons he has left, but a combination of (1) room to improve and (2) proof of past production. (1) I'm more comfortable projecting greater future improvement from a 21 or 22 year old rookie than from a 24 year old who is essentially already prime age...I understand that there should still be some room to improve by adding NFL experience but a 24 year old is likely to be closer to his peak production than a 21/22 year old. (2) Would you rather buy the guy who is turning 25 who has one solid rookie season under his belt or the guy who is turning 24 who has just as solid of a rookie season as well as a strong follow up year under his belt (or the guy who is turning 25 who has a solid rookie season and TWO strong follow up years)?

Obviously, Olave, Waddle, Smith, etc are all going to be valued higher than Tank. But the fact that he is knocking on the door says a lot about his recent performance.

[hoos89]

The two other (relatively) recent 24 year old rookie WRs that come to mind are McLaurin and Ridley. Ridley did have that one big season but has otherwise been pretty disappointing (although the gambling certainly didn't help) and McLaurin has just been okay. Dell may end up having a better rookie year than both but I think his age relative to class year is always going to put a damper on his value.

[Jigga94]

The two other (relatively) recent 24 year old rookie WRs that come to mind are McLaurin and Ridley. Ridley did have that one big season but has otherwise been pretty disappointing (although the gambling certainly didn't help) and McLaurin has just been okay. Dell may end up having a better rookie year than both but I think his age relative to class year is always going to put a damper on his value.

He's already WR15 on KTC ahead of DK, JSN, DJM, Zay, London, Higgins, Pittman.

He seems overvalued if anything

[hoos89]

The two other (relatively) recent 24 year old rookie WRs that come to mind are McLaurin and Ridley. Ridley did have that one big season but has otherwise been pretty disappointing (although the gambling certainly didn't help) and McLaurin has just been okay. Dell may end up having a better rookie year than both but I think his age relative to class year is always going to put a damper on his value.

He's already WR15 on KTC ahead of DK, JSN, DJM, Zay, London, Higgins, Pittman.

He seems overvalued if anything

I'm not sure if that's overvaluing him - he's WR15 on the season in PPG and tied to Stroud. The only player you listed who is outperforming him on the season is DJM (who probably is undervalued). If Dell was 22 he'd probably be ranked way higher.

[Jigga94]

The two other (relatively) recent 24 year old rookie WRs that come to mind are McLaurin and Ridley. Ridley did have that one big season but has otherwise been pretty disappointing (although the gambling certainly didn't help) and McLaurin has just been okay. Dell may end up having a better rookie year than both but I think his age relative to class year is always going to put a damper on his value.

He's already WR15 on KTC ahead of DK, JSN, DJM, Zay, London, Higgins, Pittman.

He seems overvalued if anything

I'm not sure if that's overvaluing him - he's WR15 on the season in PPG and tied to Stroud. The only player you listed who is outperforming him on the season is DJM (who probably is undervalued). If Dell was 22 he'd probably be ranked way higher.

So then, there isn't a damper on his value...

[hoos89]

He's already WR15 on KTC ahead of DK, JSN, DJM, Zay, London, Higgins, Pittman.

He seems overvalued if anything

I'm not sure if that's overvaluing him - he's WR15 on the season in PPG and tied to Stroud. The only player you listed who is outperforming him on the season is DJM (who probably is undervalued). If Dell was 22 he'd probably be ranked way higher.

So then, there isn't a damper on his value...

No, my point is that a younger rookie WR with exactly the same build, draft capital, production and situation would be valued materially higher (i.e. Dell's age is putting a damper on his value).

[Anteaters]

The two other (relatively) recent 24 year old rookie WRs that come to mind are McLaurin and Ridley. Ridley did have that one big season but has otherwise been pretty disappointing (although the gambling certainly didn't help) and McLaurin has just been okay. Dell may end up having a better rookie year than both but I think his age relative to class year is always going to put a damper on his value.

Good examples, but not totally apt comparisons.

TMc has had a problem his entire career of not having very good QBs (and sometimes very bad QBs) and being in a bad offense ... or an offense not suited to facilitate great WR1 stats. Dell is hitched to a T12 QB and is in a strong pass-first offense. Ignoring any possible talent differentials between the two players, that alone (QB+scheme) should smooth out his stats and avoid the dips TMc has endured.

Ridley had multiple problems sustaining high level stats in his career. First he was on the same team with one of the T3WRs in the league. Call it the Chase/Higgins effect. That diminished Ridley's production and made it uneven. Second, sadly Ridley had well-documented emotional issues that caused him to miss a season, and might be contributing to his uneven output today. Third, Ridley was suspended another year for gambling. None of those three issues are currently associated with Dell. As such, we probably shouldn't use Ridley's career as a possible projection for Dell's future.

I agree Dell's size is something to consider. Some managers will say that's enough to devalue Dell, and I won't argue against that. But I also think those managers could be missing out on catching a comet -- if there's a deal on the table and that's the only reason they turn it down.

But aside from size concerns, I haven't seen any valid reasons to devalue Dell compared to the players I mentioned above.

And I think the repeated Hilton comparisons are a good match. Very similar builds and playing styles - very similar QBs and schemes - TY was a 23 year old rookie, Dell was 23 when his rookie season started. After his rookie season with a fully healthy RWayne, Hilton did not have to share the field with a guy who seriously challenged his role as the team's WR1 - it looks like Dell has seized the role as his QB's favorite WR.

[j4pac]

I think you've got to discount him at least some due to his age. 24 is really old for a rookie.

25 years old - Waddle, Higgins, Devonta
24 years old - Dell
23 years old - Olave, GWilson

I don't see much difference in their current ages. It's not as if Dell being 25 next year will make him ready for AARP. However, if we are to discount for age, we should discount Waddle/Higgins/Devonta even more because they are older than Dell.

It's not an issue of how many seasons he has left, but a combination of (1) room to improve and (2) proof of past production. (1) I'm more comfortable projecting greater future improvement from a 21 or 22 year old rookie than from a 24 year old who is essentially already prime age...I understand that there should still be some room to improve by adding NFL experience but a 24 year old is likely to be closer to his peak production than a 21/22 year old. (2) Would you rather buy the guy who is turning 25 who has one solid rookie season under his belt or the guy who is turning 24 who has just as solid of a rookie season as well as a strong follow up year under his belt (or the guy who is turning 25 who has a solid rookie season and TWO strong follow up years)?

I’d be concerned at RB but not at WR. It’s really common for WR to peak between ages 26-29. There is definitely still room for improvement.