Puka Nacua

[FantasyFreak]

Until Kupp comes back: for sure, without a doubt.

When Kupp comes back: we'll see, but it might be closer than you're giving Puka credit for. This is the Robert Woods role.

Especially because he's on an offense with an Elite QB + elite scheme from McVay, and they move the ball consistently.

Puka hasn't even spiked a scoring week yet.

IDK about Stafford being elite. He's good, but he's not elite. I think the targets drop significantly once Kupp returns, but it may free up RZ looks for him, for sure. We'll see how he fairs in the new role, I think he can do well, but I expect a secondary role, long term. He's not a alpha target hog in an offense, IMO. This is a circumstantial thing. Also, Van Jefferson sucks. He's dropable IMO.

I’m sorry, but Puka just had 35 targets in two weeks and decimated one of the leagues best defenses. If that’s not an alpha target, then I’m not sure what is.

I definitely don’t want to be the guy saying “I have to see it for a full season, or until Kupp is playing, or Staffords gone”, and miss out at such a cheap price…

Talk to me in 4 years. Stop it. This isn't a re-draft site. Seriously, the guy is a day 3 pick that slotted into the Kupp role with almost no talent on the WR roster outside of Kupp. I know you roster the player, because it sort of proves my point, nobody who doesn't is taking a biased approach like this. We are shifting our markers, but not getting delusional.

If you think Nakua is a long term, alpha target in an NFL offense, good on you. I am not willing to make that commitment yet, looking at the circumstances in which it occured, and his draft capital/skill set.

I just think you have some extreme owneship bias. I suppose we all do, but you're up there. The Ridley thread is quiet today, for instance.

Perhaps you misread my comment, because I wasn't clear. Nakua, I don't see as a long term alpha WR in an offense. Dynasty wise. I stand by my comments, because you are indeed passionate about the players you roster, after all, that's why we roster them. I'm trying to be joking, and friendly, lest it be lost in text.

I just think, if people expect Nakua as a top end WR long term, they are setting themselves up for disappointment. I certainly think you might have hit on a 3rd or 4th round rookie pick. In fact,you already, have, if you decide to trade him, his value has certainly increased.

Such a cheap price, you say? What IS that price? Are owners selling for a 2nd? I'm not paying a first, or first plus. I don't consider that cheap.

I like you man, but I don't agree that the past 2 weeks is a good marker for the idea that Nakua is now an established alpha WR in the NFL, but perhaps that's not what you're saying, and could clarify further.

[gogobradyarm]

IDK about Stafford being elite. He's good, but he's not elite. I think the targets drop significantly once Kupp returns, but it may free up RZ looks for him, for sure. We'll see how he fairs in the new role, I think he can do well, but I expect a secondary role, long term. He's not a alpha target hog in an offense, IMO. This is a circumstantial thing. Also, Van Jefferson sucks. He's dropable IMO.

I’m sorry, but Puka just had 35 targets in two weeks and decimated one of the leagues best defenses. If that’s not an alpha target, then I’m not sure what is.

I definitely don’t want to be the guy saying “I have to see it for a full season, or until Kupp is playing, or Staffords gone”, and miss out at such a cheap price…

Talk to me in 4 years. Stop it. This isn't a re-draft site. Seriously, the guy is a day 3 pick that slotted into the Kupp role with almost no talent on the WR roster outside of Kupp. I know you roster the player, because it sort of proves my point, nobody who doesn't is taking a biased approach like this. We are shifting our markers, but not getting delusional.

If you think Nakua is a long term, alpha target in an NFL offense, good on you. I am not willing to make that commitment yet, looking at the circumstances in which it occured, and his draft capital/skill set.

I just think you have some extreme owneship bias. I suppose we all do, but you're up there. The Ridley thread is quiet today, for instance.

Perhaps you misread my comment, because I wasn't clear. Nakua, I don't see as a long term alpha WR in an offense. Dynasty wise. I stand by my comments, because you are indeed passionate about the players you roster, after all, that's why we roster them. I'm trying to be joking, and friendly, lest it be lost in text.

I just think, if people expect Nakua as a top end WR long term, they are setting themselves up for disappointment. I certainly think you might have hit on a 3rd or 4th round rookie pick. In fact,you already, have, if you decide to trade him, his value has certainly increased.

Such a cheap price, you say? What IS that price? Are owners selling for a 2nd? I'm not paying a first, or first plus. I don't consider that cheap.

I like you man, but I don't agree that the past 2 weeks is a good marker for the idea that Nakua is now an established alpha WR in the NFL, but perhaps that's not what you're saying, and could clarify further.

There are absolutely owners out there that will sell for a 2nd. Would you buy at that price? I’m not selling for that, I may not even sell for a first at this point because his production is so ahead of his perceived value.

Puka is just like Diggs and Amon, being missed by NFL scouts…it happens. Everyone would be raving if this production was by Addison, Zay, or JSN. Since Puka didn’t have high draft capital, people are making up every excuse possible. To bring up Ridley here is completely unnecessary, it just shows you’re a hater and can’t be reasoned with. Good luck.

[Cameron Giles]

It just feels very circumstantial on a team who's used a better player in a similar way. But, to his credit, he's taken advantage. It's just unheard of for a 5th round rookie to walk into Megatron volume.

[FantasyFreak]

I’m sorry, but Puka just had 35 targets in two weeks and decimated one of the leagues best defenses. If that’s not an alpha target, then I’m not sure what is.

I definitely don’t want to be the guy saying “I have to see it for a full season, or until Kupp is playing, or Staffords gone”, and miss out at such a cheap price…

Talk to me in 4 years. Stop it. This isn't a re-draft site. Seriously, the guy is a day 3 pick that slotted into the Kupp role with almost no talent on the WR roster outside of Kupp. I know you roster the player, because it sort of proves my point, nobody who doesn't is taking a biased approach like this. We are shifting our markers, but not getting delusional.

If you think Nakua is a long term, alpha target in an NFL offense, good on you. I am not willing to make that commitment yet, looking at the circumstances in which it occured, and his draft capital/skill set.

I just think you have some extreme owneship bias. I suppose we all do, but you're up there. The Ridley thread is quiet today, for instance.

Perhaps you misread my comment, because I wasn't clear. Nakua, I don't see as a long term alpha WR in an offense. Dynasty wise. I stand by my comments, because you are indeed passionate about the players you roster, after all, that's why we roster them. I'm trying to be joking, and friendly, lest it be lost in text.

I just think, if people expect Nakua as a top end WR long term, they are setting themselves up for disappointment. I certainly think you might have hit on a 3rd or 4th round rookie pick. In fact,you already, have, if you decide to trade him, his value has certainly increased.

Such a cheap price, you say? What IS that price? Are owners selling for a 2nd? I'm not paying a first, or first plus. I don't consider that cheap.

I like you man, but I don't agree that the past 2 weeks is a good marker for the idea that Nakua is now an established alpha WR in the NFL, but perhaps that's not what you're saying, and could clarify further.

There are absolutely owners out there that will sell for a 2nd. Would you buy at that price? I’m not selling for that, I may not even sell for a first at this point because his production is so ahead of his perceived value.

Puka is just like Diggs and Amon, being missed by NFL scouts…it happens. Everyone would be raving if this production was by Addison, Zay, or JSN. Since Puka didn’t have high draft capital, people are making up every excuse possible. To bring up Ridley here is completely unnecessary, it just shows you’re a hater and can’t be reasoned with. Good luck.

Puka didn't have the college profile of either of those guys. It's 2 games. I'd gladly buy for a 2nd, FWIW.

I've just established I think after 2 games for a 5th round pick, he can have a solid career as an NFL offense. Keke Coutee and others had good starts, maybe not quite this good, but C'mon man. I made the Ridley comment because you're really short term oriented on these comments. After the first half last week, you were bumping the thread. Nothing since, really. Not bumping to say perhaps you were a tad overzealous, even though I think Ridley will have a good year.

Stop with "hater" nonsense. It's the approach people take to get out of a conversation or debate. Nothing I have said has established I am a "hater". I merely pointed out you are taking a very re-draft like take to players you roster at the start of the year, Ridley and Nacua.

I gave a very reasonable take on Nakua, vs where he was rated in all facets of football, real world and Fantasy. Like I said, we get emotional with the players we roster, and I was pointing out how you posted about Ridley at half time last week, and are now doing it with Nakua, but it's dynasty, not redraft.

Sorry you couldn't take a bit of criticism, even though I pointed out how we all can how bias towards players we roster, including myself.

I've been perfectly reasonable, and can indeed be reasoned with.

The fact you try and dismiss my comments by insinuating I am "a hater" says a lot about you. If you can't take constructive criticism without resort to ad hominem style attacks, then yeah, right back at you.

Good Luck.

[jman3134]

The inability to quickly realize what is in front of your face is often a differentiator in Fantasy. Often, this doesn't mean that the most Football knowledgeable people win, but the ones with the least cognitive dissonance internally. 20 targets is obviously still situational, but the fact that he has them and continues to produce at this rate is pretty unprecedented. There is a Kupp role, and he has filled it valiantly.

[FantasyFreak]

The inability to quickly realize what is in front of your face is often a differentiator in Fantasy. Often, this doesn't mean that the most Football knowledgeable people win, but the ones with the least cognitive dissonance internally. 20 targets is obviously still situational, but the fact that he has them and continues to produce at this rate is pretty unprecedented. There is a Kupp role, and he has filled it valiantly.

No doubt. My interpretation of this player has shifted drastically from 2 weeks ago, but I am not prepared to state he's going to be a perennial WR1 in an NFL offense, year in, year out. I didn't see a guy with much of a path to a relevant NFL career 2 weeks ago, and now I see a guy who will no doubt be on an NFL roster for the length of his rookie deal (barring drastic circumstances), and beyond.

I think keeping a level head to small sample sizes is important, to see the potential ceiling, and floors, and the likely middle ground. Nakua may be the next Diggs, but I'm not there yet. He's banged up now too, I hope he can play through it, and continue to produce. It's fun to see underdogs win.

I am personally, just trying to be objective about how I view his situation, and talent. For every guy you didn't buy "low" on, there are also a bunch that if you'd bought "low", you'd have overpaid, if you get my drift. It happens a lot, and at different positions. From your Thomas Rawls, to your Keke Coutee's, your Gary Barnidge's, James Robinson's etc. They all certainly increased in value at some point for trading purposes, and also gave you points in your lineup, so IF you were a competitive team, you won, whether you held or traded for a profit. Once in a while, you get a Diggs, or an Ekeler. It's just really tough to get to the point where any of us can say with any honesty that we know this after 2 games, IMO.

As the trade market stands right now, I just feel, paying up on iffy prospect profiles on small sample sizes of top end production are very difficult to get right. If you got him cheaply in a rookie draft, good on you. I am not willing to pay a first for this player, as it stands, but maybe someday it will cost 2 or 3 times that to get him. It's also possible in 2 years I could get him for a 3rd.

I tend to think it's best not to buy for guys like this at this point, unless it's still less than a premium pick. I'd buy for a 2nd, more than that, I'd rather hold, and if I miss out, I'm fine with it. It's risk/reward, and it's different for everybody. I'm curious what people who roster him, would be willing to move him for, at this point.

If there are any here who do, what's YOUR price to move him?

[lukkynumber13]

Puka just had historically good games for a rookie. I have a strong feeling he has earned the Rams largest target share even when Kupp returns. The NFL is a what have you done for me lately league, and Puka is smoking hot!!!

IMO buy high now, because the dude is gonna win leagues and can be bought for cheap

Yeah right.

He wasn’t going for cheap BEFORE this 2nd monster game. At this point, he will be selling for a first minimum.

[gogobradyarm]

Puka just had historically good games for a rookie. I have a strong feeling he has earned the Rams largest target share even when Kupp returns. The NFL is a what have you done for me lately league, and Puka is smoking hot!!!

IMO buy high now, because the dude is gonna win leagues and can be bought for cheap

Yeah right.

He wasn’t going for cheap BEFORE this 2nd monster game. At this point, he will be selling for a first minimum.

For reference, per the DLF trade finder, he was traded for a 2nd and 3rd on 9/16. That wasn’t a bad price to pay IMO.

[Ice]

Redraft or Dynasty, if you own him start him and enjoy.

He has that it factor with his QB. His Dynasty value will work itself out soon enough. Doubt many owners will sell at this point and why would they. He is a rock star.

[ericanadian]

Puka just had historically good games for a rookie. I have a strong feeling he has earned the Rams largest target share even when Kupp returns. The NFL is a what have you done for me lately league, and Puka is smoking hot!!!

IMO buy high now, because the dude is gonna win leagues and can be bought for cheap

He’s running a 7.6 YPT based on your own numbers. Kupp ran an 8.3 YPT last year in one of his worst years (runs a 9.1 YPT for his career.) Maybe the buy low here is Kupp if serious fantasy footballers are seriously considering this as a possibility.

You’re over analyzing this situation. The dude is PPR gold. Even if his targets were cut 25-50%, we’re still looking at a 90-100 catch type player. For folks that are able to buy now for a 2nd, that is incredible value that doesn’t come along often in dynasty.

I made no comment on whether Puka can be valuable when Kupp gets back. You made the claim that he would supplant Kupp for the role of top receiver on the Rams. I’m disputing that and now you’re arguing something about him being valuable even with 25-50% less volume. What does that have to do with Puka being ahead of Kupp?

[gogobradyarm]

He’s running a 7.6 YPT based on your own numbers. Kupp ran an 8.3 YPT last year in one of his worst years (runs a 9.1 YPT for his career.) Maybe the buy low here is Kupp if serious fantasy footballers are seriously considering this as a possibility.

You’re over analyzing this situation. The dude is PPR gold. Even if his targets were cut 25-50%, we’re still looking at a 90-100 catch type player. For folks that are able to buy now for a 2nd, that is incredible value that doesn’t come along often in dynasty.

I made no comment on whether Puka can be valuable when Kupp gets back. You made the claim that he would supplant Kupp for the role of top receiver on the Rams. I’m disputing that and now you’re arguing something about him being valuable even with 25-50% less volume. What does that have to do with Puka being ahead of Kupp?

If Kupp was a few years younger and had a career not riddled with injuries, I wouldn’t make the argument. This just feels like a passing of the torch scenario. Kupp will still be relevant if healthy, but I don’t see Puka going from historically good to second fiddle. It would surprise me to say the least, but we’ll have to wait to find out. Cheers.

[Bronco Billy]

You’re over analyzing this situation. The dude is PPR gold. Even if his targets were cut 25-50%, we’re still looking at a 90-100 catch type player. For folks that are able to buy now for a 2nd, that is incredible value that doesn’t come along often in dynasty.

I made no comment on whether Puka can be valuable when Kupp gets back. You made the claim that he would supplant Kupp for the role of top receiver on the Rams. I’m disputing that and now you’re arguing something about him being valuable even with 25-50% less volume. What does that have to do with Puka being ahead of Kupp?

If Kupp was a few years younger and had a career not riddled with injuries, I wouldn’t make the argument. This just feels like a passing of the torch scenario. Kupp will still be relevant if healthy, but I don’t see Puka going from historically good to second fiddle. It would surprise me to say the least, but we’ll have to wait to find out. Cheers.

You think Nacua is going to be getting 17 targets per game when Kupp’s 11 targets per game returns? Competing with Kupp for workload is just a little different than competing with Atwell.

[gogobradyarm]

I made no comment on whether Puka can be valuable when Kupp gets back. You made the claim that he would supplant Kupp for the role of top receiver on the Rams. I’m disputing that and now you’re arguing something about him being valuable even with 25-50% less volume. What does that have to do with Puka being ahead of Kupp?

If Kupp was a few years younger and had a career not riddled with injuries, I wouldn’t make the argument. This just feels like a passing of the torch scenario. Kupp will still be relevant if healthy, but I don’t see Puka going from historically good to second fiddle. It would surprise me to say the least, but we’ll have to wait to find out. Cheers.

You think Nacua is going to be getting 17 targets per game when Kupp’s 11 targets per game returns? Competing with Kupp for workload is just a little different than competing with Atwell.

I don't think 17 targets per game is sustainable for any player. Thats almost 300 targets in a season lol.

I agree 100%, that Kupp is better than Atwell. That said, Kupp and Nacua will coexist. I just believe that Nacua has a bigger target share moving forward.

Unrelated, but wanted to share some Puka stats/propaganda:




Other fun insights:

• Puka Nacua is the second rookie to ever receive 20 targets in a game. The other receiver is Odell Beckham.

• The DLF podcast that came out after week 2, agreed that he is now worth a 24 1st/1st+

• Puka Nacua is the first player in #NFL HISTORY to record 10+ rec & 100+ yards in his first 2 career games.

[ericanadian]

Kupp’s role has changed from year to year. In 2022, his slot snaps were down to 42% if playerprofiler’s slot snap count can be believed. There’s a reason MattFFdynasty started from 2021 and it’s not the most honest approach you could hope for.

[gogobradyarm]

Kupp’s role has changed from year to year. In 2022, his slot snaps were down to 42% if playerprofiler’s slot snap count can be believed. There’s a reason MattFFdynasty started from 2021 and it’s not the most honest approach you could hope for.

Per NFL.com, Kupp played 55% of his snaps in the slot (per later October 2022 article linked below) up until end of October 2022.

https://www.nfl.com/news/2022-nfl-seaso ... -boyd-lead

Matt’s data isn’t misleading…