Way, way, waaaay too early 2023 Draft class thread

[Cameron Giles]

[
You mean they actually adjust their opinions based upon actual performance at the NFL level? Wouldn’t that be nice if everyone would do that? One of my huge pet peeves is people evaluating players who have been in the NFL for at least a couple of years and using draft capital to support a proven outdated evaluation. Once players have established themselves in the NFL draft capital, college production, combine measureables and other similar items are meaningless.

I think that's different than using data to establish a comparable. In that context, I think it's valuable to show studs who had weak comparables.

But, overall I have no idea how their comparison is calculated and if it evolves once NFL production is considered. That would make more sense.

[stoneghost28]

CEH over Taylor is probably the poster child for not valuing situation over talent. It's funny, because a ton of people predicted it in the moment that it would be a huge mistake, but it didn't stop people from doing it.

The "Andy Reid makes RBs elite" narrative was so misguided.

My big regret over the years connected to that was that while I never took CEH over Taylor, I did trade away the 1.01 in two different leagues because I felt CEH made that RB position legit 5 deep, so I could afford to move down, and now, three years later:

CEH: Bust, after 2.5 usable seasons

Dobbins: Injured repeatedly, never really put together a complete season.

Swift: Injured repeatedly, turned into a committee back at best. No elite seasons.

Akers: Injury derailed, nearly cut by the Rams 6 months ago, showed signs of life 17 months removed from Achilles injury with a nice final month of the season. Kind of funny, good finishes to '20 and '22 seasons sandwiched around a lost '21. But it's still, very thin.

What alarms me most about this class is that the vast majority of classes are nowhere near as good as this crop was heading into that draft. Four elite guys deep for me, w/an interesting option in CEH who I stupidly inflated to 1.02 after his landing spot (never again). I've been doing this since '15, and the only rookie classes close to this one as college draft eligible prospects (not as pro's, just based on what we knew going into draft day) were '17 and '18, and it's reasonable to say '17, '18 and '20 were better than any draft day classes going all the way back to maybe the bust ridden '05 class? Were there any others? I know there was a massive, horrific RB drought from '09-'14, so '17, '18 and '20 stand out simply because going back, you know there weren't any classes to that level going back 15 years or nearly so.

But now, 3 years later? '18 and '20 proved to be colossal disappointments. The only saving grace for me is that while most of the guys have never broken out as studs, they've all shown, inbetween injuries, save for CEH, that they are legit RB's. A Healthy Dobbins, a healthy Swift, a healthy Akers, a healthy Taylor? All range from super elite to good. So at least there's that.

But man. To have all these guys waylaid by injuries has totally sucked.

[halfbaked88]

CEH over Taylor is probably the poster child for not valuing situation over talent. It's funny, because a ton of people predicted it in the moment that it would be a huge mistake, but it didn't stop people from doing it.

The "Andy Reid makes RBs elite" narrative was so misguided.

My big regret over the years connected to that was that while I never took CEH over Taylor, I did trade away the 1.01 in two different leagues because I felt CEH made that RB position legit 5 deep, so I could afford to move down, and now, three years later:

CEH: Bust, after 2.5 usable seasons

Dobbins: Injured repeatedly, never really put together a complete season.

Swift: Injured repeatedly, turned into a committee back at best. No elite seasons.

Akers: Injury derailed, nearly cut by the Rams 6 months ago, showed signs of life 17 months removed from Achilles injury with a nice final month of the season. Kind of funny, good finishes to '20 and '22 seasons sandwiched around a lost '21. But it's still, very thin.

What alarms me most about this class is that the vast majority of classes are nowhere near as good as this crop was heading into that draft. Four elite guys deep for me, w/an interesting option in CEH who I stupidly inflated to 1.02 after his landing spot (never again). I've been doing this since '15, and the only rookie classes close to this one as college draft eligible prospects (not as pro's, just based on what we knew going into draft day) were '17 and '18, and it's reasonable to say '17, '18 and '20 were better than any draft day classes going all the way back to maybe the bust ridden '05 class? Were there any others? I know there was a massive, horrific RB drought from '09-'14, so '17, '18 and '20 stand out simply because going back, you know there weren't any classes to that level going back 15 years or nearly so.

But now, 3 years later? '18 and '20 proved to be colossal disappointments. The only saving grace for me is that while most of the guys have never broken out as studs, they've all shown, inbetween injuries, save for CEH, that they are legit RB's. A Healthy Dobbins, a healthy Swift, a healthy Akers, a healthy Taylor? All range from super elite to good. So at least there's that.

But man. To have all these guys waylaid by injuries has totally sucked.

I think the things you speak of have less to do with individual classes year vs year and more to do with realizing RB draft risk in general and can be mitigated by addressing the truth of the position:

Running backs are grenades.

Elite RBs offer valuable production and can win titles, but they can also blow up in your face.

[Patsfan86]

CEH over Taylor is probably the poster child for not valuing situation over talent. It's funny, because a ton of people predicted it in the moment that it would be a huge mistake, but it didn't stop people from doing it.

The "Andy Reid makes RBs elite" narrative was so misguided.

My big regret over the years connected to that was that while I never took CEH over Taylor, I did trade away the 1.01 in two different leagues because I felt CEH made that RB position legit 5 deep, so I could afford to move down, and now, three years later:

CEH: Bust, after 2.5 usable seasons

Dobbins: Injured repeatedly, never really put together a complete season.

Swift: Injured repeatedly, turned into a committee back at best. No elite seasons.

Akers: Injury derailed, nearly cut by the Rams 6 months ago, showed signs of life 17 months removed from Achilles injury with a nice final month of the season. Kind of funny, good finishes to '20 and '22 seasons sandwiched around a lost '21. But it's still, very thin.

What alarms me most about this class is that the vast majority of classes are nowhere near as good as this crop was heading into that draft. Four elite guys deep for me, w/an interesting option in CEH who I stupidly inflated to 1.02 after his landing spot (never again). I've been doing this since '15, and the only rookie classes close to this one as college draft eligible prospects (not as pro's, just based on what we knew going into draft day) were '17 and '18, and it's reasonable to say '17, '18 and '20 were better than any draft day classes going all the way back to maybe the bust ridden '05 class? Were there any others? I know there was a massive, horrific RB drought from '09-'14, so '17, '18 and '20 stand out simply because going back, you know there weren't any classes to that level going back 15 years or nearly so.

But now, 3 years later? '18 and '20 proved to be colossal disappointments. The only saving grace for me is that while most of the guys have never broken out as studs, they've all shown, inbetween injuries, save for CEH, that they are legit RB's. A Healthy Dobbins, a healthy Swift, a healthy Akers, a healthy Taylor? All range from super elite to good. So at least there's that.

But man. To have all these guys waylaid by injuries has totally sucked.

I think the things you speak of have less to do with individual classes year vs year and more to do with realizing RB draft risk in general and can be mitigated by addressing the truth of the position:

Running backs are grenades.

Elite RBs offer valuable production and can win titles, but they can also blow up in your face.

They are grenades but it’s either drafting them, Hoping to get lucky on getting a depth guy that goes off the 2nd half of the year (aka Mckinnon 22), or trading a bag for elite ones. So what are you gonna do? It’s draft every time, they are still the cheapest then.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Trade up from 1.10 or 1.30?

1.10.

Jalen Carter is still going top 10.

Let's not get crazy now.

There are enough people suggesting he'll fall into the back half of the first round, or maybe out of the 1st entirely, that you gotta make certain what's being said lol.

I was thinking about guys who were considered early 1st's but then fell in the draft similar to what's being discussed with Carter. Tunsil and Warren Sapp came to mind.

I don't think Carter will fall to far, but wouldn't be surprised to see him go 10-15 instead of top-5 after his legal/pro-day issues.

[mild]

They are grenades but it’s either drafting them, Hoping to get lucky on getting a depth guy that goes off the 2nd half of the year (aka Mckinnon 22), or trading a bag for elite ones. So what are you gonna do? It’s draft every time, they are still the cheapest then.

That's honestly one of my favourite strategies, right there.

Stack everywhere else. Go crazy on WR's, get one or two reasonably priced RB's (last year was a great year to get Miles Sanders cheap, for instance... this year that player might be D-Mont, Penny, perhaps Chubb if the owner wants to cash out, etc) and try and survive to the late part of the year using the strength of the other positions.

If you can have crazy good studs at WR and QB (and TE if you're lucky) then you don't need to devote as much roster space to those positions (because when are you ever -not- starting AJ Brown / Stef Diggs / Tyreek etc) and you can load up the majority of your roster space hoovering all the RB2 shot-plays / playing the Waiver Wire.

[YouMightDieTryin]

1.10.

Jalen Carter is still going top 10.

Let's not get crazy now.

There are enough people suggesting he'll fall into the back half of the first round, or maybe out of the 1st entirely, that you gotta make certain what's being said lol.

I was thinking about guys who were considered early 1st's but then fell in the draft similar to what's being discussed with Carter. Tunsil and Warren Sapp came to mind.

I don't think Carter will fall to far, but wouldn't be surprised to see him go 10-15 instead of top-5 after his legal/pro-day issues.

Ed Oliver comes to mind.
Justin Houston due to the Mary-Jane.
Nick Fairley.
Da'Quan Bowers.
LaMarr Woodley (LB) but fell hard to the delighted Steelers.

It seems to happen more than we think.

[halfbaked88]

They are grenades but it’s either drafting them, Hoping to get lucky on getting a depth guy that goes off the 2nd half of the year (aka Mckinnon 22), or trading a bag for elite ones. So what are you gonna do? It’s draft every time, they are still the cheapest then.

That's honestly one of my favourite strategies, right there.

Stack everywhere else. Go crazy on WR's, get one or two reasonably priced RB's (last year was a great year to get Miles Sanders cheap, for instance... this year that player might be D-Mont, Penny, perhaps Chubb if the owner wants to cash out, etc) and try and survive to the late part of the year using the strength of the other positions.

If you can have crazy good studs at WR and QB (and TE if you're lucky) then you don't need to devote as much roster space to those positions (because when are you ever -not- starting AJ Brown / Stef Diggs / Tyreek etc) and you can load up the majority of your roster space hoovering all the RB2 shot-plays / playing the Waiver Wire.

You nailed it. It's about constructing your roster with positional advantage in mind at other positions to eliminate the need for that grenade RB altogether.

You don't want immense value tied to the RB position where 1 ACL puts you out of contention for the year. Trust me, and thousands of other dynasty managers, it effing sucks.

When you have your 2 Top 8 QBs..... or five Top 18 WRs.... plus a Kelce/Kittle/Andrews.... no one can catch up. You take all that "need" to holster a grenade out of your pockets. All 3 of these positions are SO much more value insulated than RB.

Najee/Swift/Javonte were consensus Top 4 RBs just a little over a year ago. They're an inch away from dust compared to where they once were. And it's solely because of the nature of the RB position.

[Patsfan86]

Some people play 1 QB. RBs matter a lot more in that format. Every league champion in my league has had a top RB the years they won.

[halfbaked88]

Some people play 1 QB. RBs matter a lot more in that format. Every league champion in my league has had a top RB the years they won.

For sure. In 1QB you don't have to worry about facing someone who has Mahomes + Burrow (for example) .. once you introduce the sheer possibility of someone gaining positional advantage like that at QB the entire game changes.

[Jrblaha]

Some people play 1 QB. RBs matter a lot more in that format. Every league champion in my league has had a top RB the years they won.

I won last year, only starting fringe rbs in a 1 QB. Round 1 traded for Akers, L Murray, and Hubbard for a 2nd and Bellinger. Round 2 traded Willis and 2 3rds for J McK and Brady.

I get I got lucky that the trades hit, as I rolled out 2 or 3 of Akers, J McK, Hubbard, L Murray each round. And this year I’ll probably draft RBs heavy, but I do think being WR strong is insulted more long term (in a PPR).

[mild]

For sure. In 1QB you don't have to worry about facing someone who has Mahomes + Burrow (for example) .. once you introduce the sheer possibility of someone gaining positional advantage like that at QB the entire game changes.

My main SF contender has Mahomes, Hurts, and Lamar (I drafted them all)

My league mates absolutely hate me. You're correct. It completely changes the calculus of the league if you have the potential to drop 60+ pts from 2 QB's alone.

[FantasyFreak]

Some people play 1 QB. RBs matter a lot more in that format. Every league champion in my league has had a top RB the years they won.

I won last year, only starting fringe rbs in a 1 QB. Round 1 traded for Akers, L Murray, and Hubbard for a 2nd and Bellinger. Round 2 traded Willis and 2 3rds for J McK and Brady.

I get I got lucky that the trades hit, as I rolled out 2 or 3 of Akers, J McK, Hubbard, L Murray each round. And this year I’ll probably draft RBs heavy, but I do think being WR strong is insulted more long term (in a PPR).

I won the opposite way. I went light at WR. My 2 top WR's were Cooper and Cooks (14 team SF). More than 1 way to skin a cat, or whatever the saying is.

[Jrblaha]

Some people play 1 QB. RBs matter a lot more in that format. Every league champion in my league has had a top RB the years they won.

I won last year, only starting fringe rbs in a 1 QB. Round 1 traded for Akers, L Murray, and Hubbard for a 2nd and Bellinger. Round 2 traded Willis and 2 3rds for J McK and Brady.

I get I got lucky that the trades hit, as I rolled out 2 or 3 of Akers, J McK, Hubbard, L Murray each round. And this year I’ll probably draft RBs heavy, but I do think being WR strong is insulted more long term (in a PPR).

I won the opposite way. I went light at WR. My 2 top WR's were Cooper and Cooks (14 team SF). More than 1 way to skin a cat, or whatever the saying is.

For sure, but we were talking about 1 QB leagues. In SF leagues QBs would be the most insulted long term build imo. Not to say you can’t win with non-elite QBs or WRs, and full starting requirements as context matter a lot, but RBs tend to have the shortest life span.

[Ice]

Some people play 1 QB. RBs matter a lot more in that format. Every league champion in my league has had a top RB the years they won.

I won last year, only starting fringe rbs in a 1 QB. Round 1 traded for Akers, L Murray, and Hubbard for a 2nd and Bellinger. Round 2 traded Willis and 2 3rds for J McK and Brady.

I get I got lucky that the trades hit, as I rolled out 2 or 3 of Akers, J McK, Hubbard, L Murray each round. And this year I’ll probably draft RBs heavy, but I do think being WR strong is insulted more long term (in a PPR).

I won the opposite way. I went light at WR. My 2 top WR's were Cooper and Cooks (14 team SF). More than 1 way to skin a cat, or whatever the saying is.

Then there is the Luck or lack thereof factor in any league.

Still trying to figure out how my team won the scoring title by a large margin and finished 6-8 out of the playoffs with the following to name a few:

J Allen
Barkley
Jacobs
Pollard
Metcalf
Olave
Deebo
M. Brown