Combine—good and bad information

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I think I say this every year, but the 10 yard split times can be highly dubious, even at the combine. And it also seems as if they change the way they time the 10 yard splits as well from year to year, so comparing this years 10 yard splits to those of 5 years ago might be an exercise in futility. All that said, even I can’t resist a good 10 yard split, typically want to see something under a 1.60. Most years, most of the fast guys run a split in the 1.5x’s, although some years they recorded them differently and everyone was running 1.4x’s.

Rest In Pepperoni, Trey Sermon…

Based on that comment, I highly doubt you know any professional scouts. Scouts look at 10 yard splits big time. I get you may not think they matter and in fantasy I agree maybe not so much but at the NFL level it matters for a ton for a lot of positions.

People always want to go the fast times to laugh it off but in reality the slow times matter way more.

Not this again

[dondickenson]

Fyi NFL teams don’t use “official” timing results from combine. They use video timing software, same as they do for game speed calculations. Every 10 yard and 40 yard split are timed exactly and consistently because of this, and it eliminates the issues with the in person laser timing system like we saw this last year, where players like Pacheco and Hall and others actually ran somewhere between 0.04-0.08 slower than their “official” times.

[FantasyFreak]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSLlZh9yelk

[killer_of_giants]

Every 10 yard and 40 yard split are timed exactly

nope: as every measurement, it has an error. it can be small, but it is certainly there.
i have never heard anyone state how precise that measurement is. even if it is just 0.02 seconds, it is significant. could be less of course. who knows? do you?

but then, you have the issue that you can just as well gain a handful of hundreds of a second by improving your starting technique. and then you have the issue that not all the prospect will be in top notch condition at the combine for whatever reason. so, personally, i will not give much value to a measurement where most athletes (FF-relevant) are packed in 0.05 seconds. i couldn't care less what professional scouts do, it's not like they never miss.
if someone has burst, you know when you see it.
of course, big outliers are worth noticing.

That said, Burst and vision are two different discussions entirely.

and sermon has neither!

[Jigga94]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSLlZh9yelk

Like clockwork every year

[Ice]

Every 10 yard and 40 yard split are timed exactly

nope: as every measurement, it has an error. it can be small, but it is certainly there.
i have never heard anyone state how precise that measurement is. even if it is just 0.02 seconds, it is significant. could be less of course. who knows? do you?

but then, you have the issue that you can just as well gain a handful of hundreds of a second by improving your starting technique. and then you have the issue that not all the prospect will be in top notch condition at the combine for whatever reason. so, personally, i will not give much value to a measurement where most athletes (FF-relevant) are packed in 0.05 seconds. i couldn't care less what professional scouts do, it's not like they never miss.
if someone has burst, you know when you see it.
of course, big outliers are worth noticing.

That said, Burst and vision are two different discussions entirely.

and sermon has neither!

The thread title: Combine—good and bad information

In the end it is the off season; It's not really about what you do or don't care about regarding how teams measure quickness. It is tracked for a reason by every single scout in the business as they profile players. Of course scouts miss all the time, that isn't the question, but it isn't the fault of this single measurement.

While many on these boards could care less, which is okay, it is a another measurement tool used. Some of us track and use this information in fantasy, others don't.

I look at this information all the time for Weakside LB's and DE's as an example, because in IDP 1st step quickness matters. A 10 yard split shows how fast a player can get to speed in his first 3 steps.

In the scouting world, it is a significant measurement. Actually, it is one of the more important measurements for O Line especially the tackle position.

[halfbaked88]

Athleticism for RBs matters the most. Sub 4.55 with good BMI. Weight/height isn't a threshold # for me; what is important is how much muscle is on their frame = BMI (Body Mass Index.) It's a key indicator if they will be able to absorb carries and avoid injury. I'd say 29.6 is a minimum. 30.5+ BMI is ideal. College target share hopefully above 7.5%.

Athleticism matters almost as much for TE. I'm looking for the biggest athletic freak out there. Want to see 80th+ percentile scores in majority of the measurables. Preferably 6'4" 250+ lbs. Not a fan of 6'2" and under guys at this position; or the guys who profile as big WRs. Athletic metrics get skewed when smaller TEs are compared to the big TEs. But if you can be 260lbs, go out there and run routes and bully 200lbs DBs I'm definitely paying attention.

WRs can overcome average 40s, weight/height, etc as long as they have traits "somewhere" in their profile and they produced in college. I'm willing to look at profiles that don't exactly jump off the page at the combine. But the college production #s have to be there. It's a TRUE skill position so I want to see early breakout age and high target share %. Mega bonus points for a high target share playing alongside other NFL level talent WRs on the same team.

QB 85% of my evaluation is NFL draft capital. The other 15% is landing spot, random chance, and my own stupid gut feeling. It's the least dependent position on the combine. Will pay attention to dual-threat QBs 40s and size, but other than that just rank them based on how the NFL tells me to.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Athleticism for RBs matters the most. Sub 4.55 with good BMI. Weight/height isn't a threshold # for me; what is important is how much muscle is on their frame = BMI (Body Mass Index.) It's a key indicator if they will be able to absorb carries and avoid injury. I'd say 29.6 is a minimum. 30.5+ BMI is ideal. College target share hopefully above 7.5%.

I have to challenge you a bit on that one;

CJ2k - 27.2
Darren McFadden - 27.7
Jamaal Charles - 27.8
DeMarco Murray - 28.1
Christian McCaffrey - 28.2
Reggie Bush - 28.3
Fred Jackson - 28.4
Melvin Gordon - 28.4
Adrian Peterson - 28.6
Matt Forte - 28.8
Ahmad Bradshaw - 29.2
LeSean McCoy - 29.3
Todd Gurley - 29.3
Austin Ekeler - 29.4

[halfbaked88]

Athleticism for RBs matters the most. Sub 4.55 with good BMI. Weight/height isn't a threshold # for me; what is important is how much muscle is on their frame = BMI (Body Mass Index.) It's a key indicator if they will be able to absorb carries and avoid injury. I'd say 29.6 is a minimum. 30.5+ BMI is ideal. College target share hopefully above 7.5%.

I have to challenge you a bit on that one;

CJ2k - 27.2
Darren McFadden - 27.7
Jamaal Charles - 27.8
DeMarco Murray - 28.1
Christian McCaffrey - 28.2
Reggie Bush - 28.3
Fred Jackson - 28.4
Melvin Gordon - 28.4
Adrian Peterson - 28.6
Matt Forte - 28.8
Ahmad Bradshaw - 29.2
LeSean McCoy - 29.3
Todd Gurley - 29.3
Austin Ekeler - 29.4

By minimum I mean for my process. Not saying an RB below 29.6 can't succeed. More like it's a threshold for a certified check in the checkbox from me. Not a disqualifying factor. You have to consider the whole profile. Do they profile as a pass catcher i.e. Gibbs? I'm curious where are you getting your BMIs from?

Playerprofiler as far as I know uses official combine #'s and have quite a few of those guys at higher BMI's than listed.

Gurley 6'1, 227, 29.9
McCoy 5'10, 208, 29.8
Ahmad Bradshaw 5'9, 214, 31.6

And the undersized guys have high target share% which is indicative of their style of play and why Gibbs will still be graded highly in my process even if coming in under BMI threshold.

Reggie Bush 10.2%
Forte 14.4%
CJ2k 12.4% and absolutely blazing 4.24 speed 100th percentile, AND 1st round 1.24 draft capital
CMC 18.7%, 99th percentile dominator rating, 1.08 draft capital!!..........

I'm not gonna go through the whole list, but some of these guys you listed would have been graded insanely highly by me when you look at the other parts of their profiles.

[Ice]

I'm not gonna go through the whole list, but some of these guys you listed would have been graded insanely highly by me when you look at the other parts of their profiles.

This is exactly the relevant point. The metrics looked at individually are simply tools. They are worth noting, but a player profile overall is what really matters given few if any players are perfect across the board.

While I personally don't put huge stock in BMI given the number changes with every pound gained or lost, it is worth noting when evaluating specific players entering the league. Obviously a players baseline BMI will change in professional sports given full time commitment to task but it can provide baseline useful information.

Player profiles are complex and the Combine does help confirm what scouts already know about players and the needle will move on some players as more is learned when they are in the fish bowl.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Athleticism for RBs matters the most. Sub 4.55 with good BMI. Weight/height isn't a threshold # for me; what is important is how much muscle is on their frame = BMI (Body Mass Index.) It's a key indicator if they will be able to absorb carries and avoid injury. I'd say 29.6 is a minimum. 30.5+ BMI is ideal. College target share hopefully above 7.5%.

I have to challenge you a bit on that one;

CJ2k - 27.2
Darren McFadden - 27.7
Jamaal Charles - 27.8
DeMarco Murray - 28.1
Christian McCaffrey - 28.2
Reggie Bush - 28.3
Fred Jackson - 28.4
Melvin Gordon - 28.4
Adrian Peterson - 28.6
Matt Forte - 28.8
Ahmad Bradshaw - 29.2
LeSean McCoy - 29.3
Todd Gurley - 29.3
Austin Ekeler - 29.4

By minimum I mean for my process. Not saying an RB below 29.6 can't succeed. More like it's a threshold for a certified check in the checkbox from me. Not a disqualifying factor. You have to consider the whole profile. Do they profile as a pass catcher i.e. Gibbs? I'm curious where are you getting your BMIs from?

Playerprofiler as far as I know uses official combine #'s and have quite a few of those guys at higher BMI's than listed.

Gurley 6'1, 227, 29.9
McCoy 5'10, 208, 29.8
Ahmad Bradshaw 5'9, 214, 31.6

And the undersized guys have high target share% which is indicative of their style of play and why Gibbs will still be graded highly in my process even if coming in under BMI threshold.

Reggie Bush 10.2%
Forte 14.4%
CJ2k 12.4% and absolutely blazing 4.24 speed 100th percentile, AND 1st round 1.24 draft capital
CMC 18.7%, 99th percentile dominator rating, 1.08 draft capital!!..........

I'm not gonna go through the whole list, but some of these guys you listed would have been graded insanely highly by me when you look at the other parts of their profiles.

Playerprofiler has wrong weights on their site. I’ve double checked all my numbers

Also, if you will give a low bmi player a high grade, then why say “29.6 is a minimum.” Very confusing wording on your part

[halfbaked88]

I have to challenge you a bit on that one;

CJ2k - 27.2
Darren McFadden - 27.7
Jamaal Charles - 27.8
DeMarco Murray - 28.1
Christian McCaffrey - 28.2
Reggie Bush - 28.3
Fred Jackson - 28.4
Melvin Gordon - 28.4
Adrian Peterson - 28.6
Matt Forte - 28.8
Ahmad Bradshaw - 29.2
LeSean McCoy - 29.3
Todd Gurley - 29.3
Austin Ekeler - 29.4

By minimum I mean for my process. Not saying an RB below 29.6 can't succeed. More like it's a threshold for a certified check in the checkbox from me. Not a disqualifying factor. You have to consider the whole profile. Do they profile as a pass catcher i.e. Gibbs? I'm curious where are you getting your BMIs from?

Playerprofiler as far as I know uses official combine #'s and have quite a few of those guys at higher BMI's than listed.

Gurley 6'1, 227, 29.9
McCoy 5'10, 208, 29.8
Ahmad Bradshaw 5'9, 214, 31.6

And the undersized guys have high target share% which is indicative of their style of play and why Gibbs will still be graded highly in my process even if coming in under BMI threshold.

Reggie Bush 10.2%
Forte 14.4%
CJ2k 12.4% and absolutely blazing 4.24 speed 100th percentile, AND 1st round 1.24 draft capital
CMC 18.7%, 99th percentile dominator rating, 1.08 draft capital!!..........

I'm not gonna go through the whole list, but some of these guys you listed would have been graded insanely highly by me when you look at the other parts of their profiles.

Playerprofiler has wrong weights on their site. I’ve double checked all my numbers

Also, if you will give a low bmi player a high grade, then why say “29.6 is a minimum.” Very confusing wording on your part

I promise to uphold myself to a higher standard next time. I've shamed my family on this one. Please forgive me.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

You had asked where I get my BMI’s from. When I first started my RB report, it was pointed out to me that I had some of the players weights wrong. That made me realize that playerprofiler uses incorrect weights sometimes. So I went back and checked every players weight in my database to that of other websites that keep track of workout numbers such as mockdraftable.com nflcombineresults.com among others, as well as articles written about the player the year of their combine to get the most accurate weights possible. Then I re-calculated their BMI and SpeedScores. I have an excel spreadsheet with all the correct information for all measurements and testing for rbs. Unfortunately there is not a single website out there with all correct information.

[Pullo Vision]

You had asked where I get my BMI’s from. When I first started my RB report, it was pointed out to me that I had some of the players weights wrong. That made me realize that playerprofiler uses incorrect weights sometimes. So I went back and checked every players weight in my database to that of other websites that keep track of workout numbers such as mockdraftable.com nflcombineresults.com among others, as well as articles written about the player the year of their combine to get the most accurate weights possible. Then I re-calculated their BMI and SpeedScores. I have an excel spreadsheet with all the correct information for all measurements and testing for rbs. Unfortunately there is not a single website out there with all correct information.

With so many competing sources of info, how do determine which is right? Is it generally 3 agree and a 4th has a different number (3 of 4 as hypothetical examples), or does each source have a different number?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

You had asked where I get my BMI’s from. When I first started my RB report, it was pointed out to me that I had some of the players weights wrong. That made me realize that playerprofiler uses incorrect weights sometimes. So I went back and checked every players weight in my database to that of other websites that keep track of workout numbers such as mockdraftable.com nflcombineresults.com among others, as well as articles written about the player the year of their combine to get the most accurate weights possible. Then I re-calculated their BMI and SpeedScores. I have an excel spreadsheet with all the correct information for all measurements and testing for rbs. Unfortunately there is not a single website out there with all correct information.

With so many competing sources of info, how do determine which is right? Is it generally 3 agree and a 4th has a different number (3 of 4 as hypothetical examples), or does each source have a different number?

Best case scenario if I'm unsure if a number is correct and/or sites have conflicting numbers is I do a google search for that players name for the year of their combine (so for Gurley, custom range of 2015-2015 and maybe you find an article like this). I am still wary if it's just 1 article so I try to find as many as possible to confirm. I do it the year of the combine because the further away from the combine it gets, the more inaccurate everything is about what actually happened at the combine. A number written in an article 5 years later, or even a year later, that weight number could be from anywhere, could be a weight that they weighed in at during some random training camp.

Also have to check if they had a pro day, and if so, did they run the 40 at the pro day or at the combine, or both. Some players weigh in at the combine but do not run, then they might weigh in at a pro day and run. So sites might have the combine weight paired with the 40 time but that is inaccurate, as the speedscore has to be derived from the weight the player ran the 40 at. I think this was the case with Trent Richardson, where he weighed in at the combine, then weighed in slightly differently at the pro day where he ran the 40. The thing is, for some reason it's not sexy to report/write on pro-day weigh ins, so they are MUCH harder to find.

Trent Richardson is listed everywhere at 228 (his combine weight) yet he was 227 when he ran his pro-day 40 as mentioned here, here and here. So I have TRich as 227 in my database, and his BMI and SpeedScore reflects that.