Where do I go from here?

[burntfire]

Team in sig.

I have a few players I'll need to shave off before next year but am in a weird spot and don't see competing for another year or so.

I finished in 8th place, just outside of the playoffs, which hurt my draft position a bit but managed to secure the pick that turned into the 1.05.

Obvious holes are QB and RB with my WR core being the best in the league.

What moves would you make?

[Needalife]

I would be looking to sell high on AJB and then float Jacobs/Godwin out there as well. The team needs too many pieces and these guys are going to keep getting you worse picks. Build around Pickett, Metcalf, Jeudy and Njoku.

Take your time with it and obviously do your best to maximize value. Also, kick the tires on a few fringe QB starters like Jordan Love, Trey Lance, Zach Wilson types.

[MacDaddy123]

There are 4 QB's in this draft that you may have to address with pick 1.05.
I know the 1.05 is a bit early in most SF leagues for all 4 QB's to be gone, but in a 14 team SF, that may be different, as QB value increases over a 12 team SF league.

So hopefully someone takes Bijan in the top 4 and leaves you with a QB option at 1.05.
At 1.08, you probably look to take a RB, Zach Evans, Sean Tucker, Tank Bigsby, Zach Charbonnet.
Can't really say until we see the combine results, draft capital, and who is left on the board at 1.08.

Khalil Herbert has a non-zero chance to be the Bears starting RB in 2023, but I might consider packaging him with one of your top 3 WR's in order to go after a better young RB like Ken Walker, Breece Hall, D'Andre Swift, etc.

Look for a team with some RB depth, and see if you can exchange some of your WR depth for RB depth.

Good luck.

[Gator Sens]

Until you get your QB room figured out, I think you are in a really tough spot overall. I would focus solely on locking up two young QBs to help long term and hopefully solve that issue and then go from there. This is likely a multiple year retool/rebuild but in a 14 team SF format, QBs need to be in place to give you a big advantage.

You have WRs to move to helpfully help, but I think you are looking at a lengthy retool. It's a bit tougher to gauge in a larger number of team format but I would see what options there are at QB throughout the offseason and hopefully a couple good prospects drop to you in the draft to maximize value there too.

Good luck this offseason!

[moishetreats]

Until you get your QB room figured out, I think you are in a really tough spot overall. I would focus solely on locking up two young QBs to help long term and hopefully solve that issue and then go from there. This is likely a multiple year retool/rebuild but in a 14 team SF format, QBs need to be in place to give you a big advantage.

You have WRs to move to helpfully help, but I think you are looking at a lengthy retool. It's a bit tougher to gauge in a larger number of team format but I would see what options there are at QB throughout the offseason and hopefully a couple good prospects drop to you in the draft to maximize value there too.

Good luck this offseason!

I agree with Gator overall and especially with the part in bold.

[ZakHH]

What moves would you make?

That's a tough question, because...

This is likely a multiple year retool/rebuild but in a 14 team SF format... I think you are looking at a lengthy retool.

Can't say it any better, and certainly not any nicer.

QB is a huge problem. So is TE, though I'd ignore that for the moment.
RB also urgently needs attention.

On QB, you can only pray that Pickett will get better. Davis Mills is toast, Sam Darnold might be as well. Matt Corral at least carries a spark of hope in him, but that's really not much.

On RB, you have Josh Jacobs, who's a free agent now. I think the Raiders will tag him, or he will find a good new spot. Still, as the only RB on the roster, that's a bit thin. Khalil Herbert may have a chance to carve out a role for him in 2023, but I wouldn't bet on it.

I would question your statement that your WR core is the best in your league. AJB is an asset. DKM is a solid WR2, but we don't know who his QB will be yet. Same for Godwin, who might not even remain with the Bucs. They could save $12.5m in cap space by letting him go. Godwin's not a fantasy write-off, but a shaky asset at the moment. And again, you have no talent primed for a breakout on your bench.

So what to do?

You have two 1sts, which is good. Depending on how the draft goes, I would consider spending them both on QBs.

Ignore RBs this year. Not because you don't need them, but because the shelf life is shorter on that position. You are facing a multi-year rebuild, and RB should be the last position to address.

BUT: if your draft goes QB-heavy at the top, and Jahmyr Gibbs or even Bijan Robinson fall to you, grab them. They carry tremendous trade value, and even in a 14-team SFLEX, I'd rather take an elite RB than a 3rd-tier QB prospect. If only to trade them away after the draft. Contending teams will pay top dollar for them.

But chances are that both Bijan and Gibbs will be gone at 1.05, so that you can grab one of the top 3 QBs. Top 2 would be better, as Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud stand out over the rest. But there are more solid prospects in this class, and a few of them should find decent landing spots.

Still, if you can trade up to the 1.04 for a reasonable price, consider it. Because then you will get 1 of Young / Stroud / Bijan / Gibbs for sure. Right now, these 4 are the top tier of this strong class. But don't overspend for trading up. The falloff isn't that brutal, and tiers may still shift after the combine, free agency, and of course the NFL draft.

With the 1.09, if one of the top 5 QBs is still there, grab him. If not, go WR. Or, if Michael Mayer is still there, you can even consider him. TEs typically need 2-3 years before they start producing (see Kyle Pitts, who's been struggling in year 2). So stashing a huge TE talent now isn't a terrible idea.

Still, I'd probably prefer one of the 3 top WRs, who will still be there if the early picks mostly went QB and RB.

Aside from the draft, consider selling A.J. Brown. That may sound counter-intuitive, as he's the only elite player you got. But that also means he carries the most trade value. And he alone won't take you into the playoffs. If we can agree that your team is not a playoff candidate for at least the next 2 seasons, then having Brown won't change that. He may win you a game or two, but that will only de-value your next draft picks.

Don't sell him cheap. He's worth a ton, and you are not in a rush. You can still sell him during the season, when a contending team lost their WR1 to injury. But selling him you should. By the time your team is back in playoff shape, Brown will be 28 or 29, and may not play for the Eagles anymore, who are likely to cut him after the 2025 season, unless he agrees to a restructured contract.

You can also sell Godwin, Metcalf, Jeudy, Lazard, Jacobs and Njoku. Remember, you need players that will carry your team from 2025 going forward, and none of them is likely to do that.

Players I'd hold are Corral, Khalil Herbert, Gainwell, Osborn, Skyy Moore, and Jelani Woods.
These players have a chance to improve further, and aren't likely to give you much in return if you trade them.

Kenny Pickett is the only must-hold on your roster.

Mills and Darnold should only be traded if you receive a good offer for them, which would surprise me. So better hold them and hope they'll sign a backup contract for a team that will then lose its starter to injury. Then sell them to a contending team with QB woes.

Finally, a few last advices:

Be as active on the waiver wire as you can. I'd bet that, even in a 14 team SFLEX, Brock Purdy was on the waiver wire when he had to fill in for Jimmy G and looked surprisingly comfortable in an NFL match. Those are the players you need to grab. If it's a QB, don't hesitate to spemd all your FAAB on him. There is no need to save some FAAB for later if you don't make the playoffs anyway.

But also try a few cheap dart shots. If an RB is questionable, and his backup is on the waiver wire, grab him. If he starts and looks good, trade him away, even if it's just for a 3rd. Pair that 3rd with the next successful dart throw and turn him into a late 2nd. Take that late 2nd and trade up a spot or two in the 1st round. It's a marathon, but you still need to take one step at a time.

For at least the next 2 years, trade for draft picks, but do not trade any picks away. You need them.
Also, do not trade for ageing stars, even if they are offered cheap. Always remember, your next window in that league will open in 2-3 years. Before trading for a player, ask yourself: will that player still help me then?

If all a trade will do is pushing your team from #12 to #9 this year, then all you achieved is losing 3 spots in next year's draft. Nobody likes losing, but keep reminding yourself that, while you are still rebuilding, every L speeds up that rebuild. Don't tank, but don't make any short-term moves, either.

Good luck with the rebuild. They can be challenging, but also fun. I'm going into year 3 of a three year rebuild myself, and even though 2022 ended up 5-9 for me, I was still excited to see that my team put up the highest league score in 3 weeks. If the 2023 draft goes well, I will be a contender this year.

[The.Big.Spank]

I am not a fan of Pickett. I would have a hard time pinning my hopes on him. I would use both picks on QB's if you can.

[burntfire]

Thank you all for the feedback and ZakHH especially for the feedback.

I agree it'll be multiple years unless I have a crazy draft that works out but even then I have holes everywhere.

Would it make sense trying to go for a Josh Allen type and figuring the rest out? I think with my (2) picks and another player I could snag a top QB. Also, moving Jacobs makes a ton of sense while his value is high even if most people undervalue him.

Trading my WRs is not something I expected to hear but I understand it I have just always been under the belief you hold on to your young WRs especially your studs.

[dblj1199]

Your team is ok other than a massive hole at qb. So it will take you several years to load up at qb, which will make your core that much older. I think Pickett may be a decent #2 qb for you if he continues to improve and Pitt builds up the o-line for him. Your problem is your team is decent and you will keep wining games and not end up with that top draft pick. You may have to take a shot on a Tua or Murray, hope that the owners are down on them, both can stay healthy and a new regime in Arizona can turn Kyler around. I may float out the 1.8 for one of those two. Maybe take a flyer on a T Lance or J Love.