2022 Running Back Report

[ericanadian]

Not a thing on Pierre Strong Jr? Very productive rusher, albeit at a lower level, for his entire college career. Can catch out of the backfield and is solid in pass protection. Went to a dedicated run-first team with an admittedly very difficult to decipher coaching mindset. Potential immediate opportunity with the injury to James White but is well rounded in his game. Going to have to work on ball security, but we’ve seen that is fixable at the NFL level.

Look at the comparison to Elijah Mitchell, who claimed the starting RB spot in SF:

Category. Mitchell(percentile) Strong(percentile)

Height 5’-10” 5’-11”
Weight 201lbs 207lbs
40 4.40s(96) 4.37s(99)
Speed Score 107.3(86) 113.5(95)
Burst Score 127.8(88) 126.6(86)
Agility Score 11.14(79) 11.20(75)
RAS 9.44/10.00 9.34/10.00

So Strong compares very favorably to Mitchell. He’s a shade bigger and faster. And if you watch Strong run, he has a more sophisticated toolbox as a RB in the open field than Mitchell did at the same point in his career.

So if Mitchell can succeed at the NFL level as a lead RB, even if it does turn out to be a flash in the pan (which I don’t believe it is but we’ll see) why wouldn’t we be putting Strong on your list in the same area you put Mitchell last year?

Wait, looking back at last year I just noticed that there is no sign of Mitchell either. I guess that just must have been a mistake in your cut and paste into the MB that you completely missed with that…

Strong seems like James White insurance to me. Could he be the next James White? Possible, but its a new offense in New England, so I wouldn’t want to bank on that.

[Bronco Billy]

Not a thing on Pierre Strong Jr? Very productive rusher, albeit at a lower level, for his entire college career. Can catch out of the backfield and is solid in pass protection. Went to a dedicated run-first team with an admittedly very difficult to decipher coaching mindset. Potential immediate opportunity with the injury to James White but is well rounded in his game. Going to have to work on ball security, but we’ve seen that is fixable at the NFL level.

Look at the comparison to Elijah Mitchell, who claimed the starting RB spot in SF:

Category. Mitchell(percentile) Strong(percentile)

Height 5’-10” 5’-11”
Weight 201lbs 207lbs
40 4.40s(96) 4.37s(99)
Speed Score 107.3(86) 113.5(95)
Burst Score 127.8(88) 126.6(86)
Agility Score 11.14(79) 11.20(75)
RAS 9.44/10.00 9.34/10.00

So Strong compares very favorably to Mitchell. He’s a shade bigger and faster. And if you watch Strong run, he has a more sophisticated toolbox as a RB in the open field than Mitchell did at the same point in his career.

So if Mitchell can succeed at the NFL level as a lead RB, even if it does turn out to be a flash in the pan (which I don’t believe it is but we’ll see) why wouldn’t we be putting Strong on your list in the same area you put Mitchell last year?

Wait, looking back at last year I just noticed that there is no sign of Mitchell either. I guess that just must have been a mistake in your cut and paste into the MB that you completely missed with that…

Strong seems like James White insurance to me. Could he be the next James White? Possible, but its a new offense in New England, so I wouldn’t want to bank on that.

Yeah, I’ve seen a lot of that mindset. It completely dismisses what Strong is capable of as a 3 down RB. He’s jumping up in competition moreso than power 5 RBs, but watching him run is transfixing. The kid has a ton of talent if he can make that jump successfully. It wouldn’t surprise me if he took control of that backfield and ran with Stevenson being used as a situational hammer and taking a couple of full series himself each game. That all goes out the window if Strong drops the football in a game.

[Jigga94]

Not a thing on Pierre Strong Jr? Very productive rusher, albeit at a lower level, for his entire college career. Can catch out of the backfield and is solid in pass protection. Went to a dedicated run-first team with an admittedly very difficult to decipher coaching mindset. Potential immediate opportunity with the injury to James White but is well rounded in his game. Going to have to work on ball security, but we’ve seen that is fixable at the NFL level.

Look at the comparison to Elijah Mitchell, who claimed the starting RB spot in SF:

Category. Mitchell(percentile) Strong(percentile)

Height 5’-10” 5’-11”
Weight 201lbs 207lbs
40 4.40s(96) 4.37s(99)
Speed Score 107.3(86) 113.5(95)
Burst Score 127.8(88) 126.6(86)
Agility Score 11.14(79) 11.20(75)
RAS 9.44/10.00 9.34/10.00

So Strong compares very favorably to Mitchell. He’s a shade bigger and faster. And if you watch Strong run, he has a more sophisticated toolbox as a RB in the open field than Mitchell did at the same point in his career.

So if Mitchell can succeed at the NFL level as a lead RB, even if it does turn out to be a flash in the pan (which I don’t believe it is but we’ll see) why wouldn’t we be putting Strong on your list in the same area you put Mitchell last year?

Wait, looking back at last year I just noticed that there is no sign of Mitchell either. I guess that just must have been a mistake in your cut and paste into the MB that you completely missed with that…

Strong seems like James White insurance to me. Could he be the next James White? Possible, but its a new offense in New England, so I wouldn’t want to bank on that.

Yeah, I’ve seen a lot of that mindset. It completely dismisses what Strong is capable of as a 3 down RB. He’s jumping up in competition moreso than power 5 RBs, but watching him run is transfixing. The kid has a ton of talent if he can make that jump successfully. It wouldn’t surprise me if he took control of that backfield and ran with Stevenson being used as a situational hammer and taking a couple of full series himself each game. That all goes out the window if Strong drops the football in a game.

I like Strong in relation to his 3rd round rookie ADP as well, but this is too true and NE is the main reason I pause with him. It's funny but so accurate

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Dameon Pierce

Notes
Prefers to carry the ball in his right hand although did see him carry a few times with his left. Physical and violent runner with pretty good burst and quickness, but lacks the nuance of an Allgeier. Seems unsure of where to run at times. Always seems to be in a constant state of panic. Was sent down the seam for passes like a tight end, did well with them. Not asked to pass block much but seemed pretty good when doing so.

Conclusion
This appears to be another Trey Sermon situation, in that he has the athleticism and the build but lacks the polish… What is the work ethic like? Can they smooth out the rough edges or no? Why wasn’t he getting more touches in college. He was splitting work for FOUR YEARS. Work ethic? Smarts? Talent? Its hard to envision him becoming an every-down back for the Texas this year. I think the most likely scenario is he mixes in for carries in some sort of RBBC. In my opinionhe’s being over drafted by much the dynasty community.

Comps
Matt Jones

Okay, you completely lost me here speaking favorably to Trey Sermon’s athleticism. Sermon runs like a full dump truck on an 8% uphill grade. His metrics showed that he was that slow and was confirmed in his game tape.

That aside, as well as my previous post- very well done and very thorough. It takes a lot of work to produce this kind of stuff and some balls to put it out for public critique. High kudos to you.

Thanks. I’m just on my phone so hard to get into too much detail but sermon was pretty athletic he was just slow. 83rd percentile burst score and 79th percentile agility scores are excellent. I’d have to look at my scouting notes but from what I remember his initial burst was pretty good as well on film. What I didn’t like about him is that he was very raw as a runner. Again, I’d have to look back at my notes from last year. I do put a lot of importance on 40 time and I often do use that as a reference to athleticism, but even if you run a poor 40 that doesn’t mean you aren’t athletic in a general sense. I guess that is what confused you.

Also E Mitchell was not on the report last year. Strong’s profile is intriguing, I did try to look at some of his tape. Don’t think there was much out there. I believe the level of competition was pretty bad, I could be wrong on that. It was hard to develop any sort of concrete opinion based on the limited amount of stuff that’s out there. Very intriguing profile though I agree and worth a stash.

[mild]

Ok, well that about wraps it up. Sorry it was a little late this year but it gets harder every year to motivate myself to do this write-up.

Just wanted to give big kudos for your work putting this together DD, it's always a thread I really look forward to here every year. Your hard work and efforts putting yourself out there are very appreciated.

The irony of the bolded is that your model is finally coming into its own with its dataset, if anything its never been a more exciting time to read your report thanks to the bigger picture we are starting to get. Don't give up now, dude!

Kenneth Walker
I’ve been hearing the narrative that Breece is the better prospect but Walker is the better runner all offseason, and finally got to see it for myself. I was floored by some of the plays he was making. Basically put on any game tape and it’s a highlight video in and of itself.

Glad you finally got to see this, too. Boy he's fun. Easily my favourite rusher in the class.

[TheBelgian]

Ok, well that about wraps it up. Sorry it was a little late this year but it gets harder every year to motivate myself to do this write-up.

Just wanted to give big kudos for your work putting this together DD, it's always a thread I really look forward to here every year. Your hard work and efforts putting yourself out there are very appreciated.

The irony of the bolded is that your model is finally coming into its own with its dataset, if anything its never been a more exciting time to read your report thanks to the bigger picture we are starting to get. Don't give up now, dude!

Kenneth Walker
I’ve been hearing the narrative that Breece is the better prospect but Walker is the better runner all offseason, and finally got to see it for myself. I was floored by some of the plays he was making. Basically put on any game tape and it’s a highlight video in and of itself.

Glad you finally got to see this, too. Boy he's fun. Easily my favourite rusher in the class.

Completely agree with Mild here. It is very cool to see this develop. I lean on this report the most. It's detailed and has the history to back it. It has also helped me know what to look for in prospects that I would have never picked out before seeing your reports. Thank you

[jman3134]

Just got my guys in my main league, reaching for Strong at 2.12 and Pacheco at 3.1. Took a lot of maneuvering, but I am happy. Two fastest 40s and Pacheco/Strong have elite speed size profiles. Strong has better short area quickness. Thrilled about this even though I know I reached and could have gotten better "perceived" value.

[Diti51]

DD.

Thanks for the data dive, the write up and transparent data share. most importantly posting it here for all of us dynasty degenerates to enjoy in the too long off season. Great work and appreciate it!

[Vendetta]

One of my favorite threads every year, thanks DD for the hard work. I always refer to this come draft day!

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Just got my guys in my main league, reaching for Strong at 2.12 and Pacheco at 3.1. Took a lot of maneuvering, but I am happy. Two fastest 40s and Pacheco/Strong have elite speed size profiles. Strong has better short area quickness. Thrilled about this even though I know I reached and could have gotten better "perceived" value.

Looks like a savvy move on your part. Every year I swear I should only draft rbs in the later rounds and every year I kick myself for not drafting enough rbs.

[Space Cowboy]

Just got my guys in my main league, reaching for Strong at 2.12 and Pacheco at 3.1. Took a lot of maneuvering, but I am happy. Two fastest 40s and Pacheco/Strong have elite speed size profiles. Strong has better short area quickness. Thrilled about this even though I know I reached and could have gotten better "perceived" value.

Looks like a savvy move on your part. Every year I swear I should only draft rbs in the later rounds and every year I kick myself for not drafting enough rbs.

I like to pounce on the WW post draft like a mad man. I got Mason (SF), White (Miami), Williams (ATL) and recently Warren (Pitt). Play those lotto tickets, they will hit eventually.

[Space Cowboy]

Ty Chandler was an underrated prospect and he really balled out this past weekend. Really like him, not sure why he went UDFA in most rookie drafts.

[Shcritters]

Just got my guys in my main league, reaching for Strong at 2.12 and Pacheco at 3.1. Took a lot of maneuvering, but I am happy. Two fastest 40s and Pacheco/Strong have elite speed size profiles. Strong has better short area quickness. Thrilled about this even though I know I reached and could have gotten better "perceived" value.

Looks like a savvy move on your part. Every year I swear I should only draft rbs in the later rounds and every year I kick myself for not drafting enough rbs.

DD - Any comments about Pacheco and your model?

[lukkynumber13]

Ty Chandler was an underrated prospect and he really balled out this past weekend. Really like him, not sure why he went UDFA in most rookie drafts.

I know nothing about Chandler as a prospect, but it's quite a depth chart.

Maybe the best RB in football, followed by a 3rd round guy Mattison who has balled out when given opportunity, followed by Kene N who has flashed mad skills on ST and has RB size

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Just got my guys in my main league, reaching for Strong at 2.12 and Pacheco at 3.1. Took a lot of maneuvering, but I am happy. Two fastest 40s and Pacheco/Strong have elite speed size profiles. Strong has better short area quickness. Thrilled about this even though I know I reached and could have gotten better "perceived" value.

Looks like a savvy move on your part. Every year I swear I should only draft rbs in the later rounds and every year I kick myself for not drafting enough rbs.

DD - Any comments about Pacheco and your model?

His draft capital nukes his ability to get on any of the "good" lists. But eyeballing his numbers, it looks like he should be on some of the "lesser" lists. update: Just looked into it. He basically hits every threshold for tier 4 and tier 5 except his college dominator rating is literally ~1% from hitting the benchmarks. So, room for optimism. Aaron Jones and Chase Edmonds were similar in that respect, in that they too initially just missed a certain criteria.