Who is everyone avoiding in the 2022 Draft Class?

[murphysxm]

If I had to predict the players most likely to miss they would be Burks, London and Williams. I love Williams though, so that would be the biggest blow.

Oh dear, lol. Those are definitely players that would be on my radar at 1.05. It sounds like there are land mines out there. Appreciate the response, and I'm with you on Jameson Williams. What gives you the most pause about him?

Edit: "I'm with you" meaning I like Jameson a lot too.

I have no pause, I am all in. I just see the real arguments that he has some boom or bust. Just have faith in the boom

[Ice]

London has high bust potential IMO. He really is slow which isn't a great trait for long WR's. He could be okay in the slot but a player I would not target. Wasn't a major concern as I didn't have high enough picks anyway this year to get him since many really like him.

I am on the other end of the bust spectrum with Watson. He may be the best WR in this class by year 2-3 IMO.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I don’t think I’ve seen this comparison but isn’t London just a carbon copy of Mike Williams? Might be able to get him cheaper later unless he’s the Najee Harris of wrs getting unreal usage as a rookie because the team is devoid of talent at the position

[Cameron Giles]

London:

+ Great breakout age
+ Good target share in school
+ One of the few WRs in this class who turns 21 right before their rookie season
+ Leaped Amon Ra St Brown as a sophomore (who looks to have been under drafted)
+ Matt Harmon's reception perception charted him as a competent route runner at minimum
+ Walking into a situation with a lot of targets free with Ridley and Gage gone
+ Played a lot of slot in college, so more versatile than you think.

And this isn't even mentioning any of his physical traits: 95th percentile catch radius, plus athlete, good speed for size, good body control.

I would be pretty surprised if he is a bust. He seems like one of the safest WRs in this class. I can see the Vincent Jackson comps.

[murphysxm]

London:

+ Great breakout age
+ Good target share in school
+ One of the few WRs in this class who turns 21 right before their rookie season
+ Leaped Amon Ra St Brown as a sophomore (who looks to have been under drafted)
+ Matt Harmon's reception perception charted him as a competent route runner at minimum
+ Walking into a situation with a lot of targets free with Ridley and Gage gone
+ Played a lot of slot in college, so more versatile than you think.

And this isn't even mentioning any of his physical traits: 95th percentile catch radius, plus athlete, good speed for size, good body control.

I would be pretty surprised if he is a bust. He seems like one of the safest WRs in this class. I can see the Vincent Jackson comps.

I am 100% not an analytics guys and know that probably has me miss on prospects. However, in my amateur sit on the couch and talk about rookie prospect experience, I have never seen a top flight prospect WR I am more scared of based on me watching him playing the game of football. Feel free to use this at my expense if I am wrong, but I just don't see it.

[Jigga94]

London:

+ Great breakout age
+ Good target share in school
+ One of the few WRs in this class who turns 21 right before their rookie season
+ Leaped Amon Ra St Brown as a sophomore (who looks to have been under drafted)
+ Matt Harmon's reception perception charted him as a competent route runner at minimum
+ Walking into a situation with a lot of targets free with Ridley and Gage gone
+ Played a lot of slot in college, so more versatile than you think.

And this isn't even mentioning any of his physical traits: 95th percentile catch radius, plus athlete, good speed for size, good body control.

I would be pretty surprised if he is a bust. He seems like one of the safest WRs in this class. I can see the Vincent Jackson comps.

I am 100% not an analytics guys and know that probably has me miss on prospects. However, in my amateur sit on the couch and talk about rookie prospect experience, I have never seen a top flight prospect WR I am more scared of based on me watching him playing the game of football. Feel free to use this at my expense if I am wrong, but I just don't see it.

This is where I'm torn too. He doesn't have the ceiling that some think he has imo. Still in my top3 WR but yeah I have slight concerns.

CG didn't even mention Pittman to go along with ARSB. That makes Londons FR yr breakout even more impressive. On paper, he looks like a can't miss guy

[Mjvb5]

A bit further down, but Christian Watson for me. Everyone thinks the landing spot is great, but the reality is that what Rodgers really wants from his receivers is trust, and I definitely don't think he'll have that with a very raw rookie.
I've also been waffling on Burks. Didn't really love him even before workouts, and obviously things haven't gotten much better since then. But I could also see him being a big hit.
Related to the linked thread, I actually didn't love Harry coming out, so I do feel vindicated about that. It was also interesting to read that people loved Treadwell in 16. That was the first dynasty rookie draft I did, and really didn't consume any fantasy-related content, but I had basically no interest in him, either. Granted, I lived Doctson, so not like I'm batting 1.000 there.

Watson is an interesting player for me. I think he's arguably a reach at 1.05, but he will almost certainly be gone by the time I'd pick again at 2.05. I guess the same can be said for many of the WRs this year, though.

If it makes you feel better, Doctson went pretty high in my league as well. Can't seem to get the exact pick...seems we need to update our CBS Sportsline for the 2022 League Year before they let us see prior year drafts

I don't it's even arguable he's a reach at 5, I think he's a massive reach there. He will definitely be long gone by 2.05, but I personally wouldn't touch him in the 1st. 2.01 is the first pick I would even consider him with, IMO.

Yea most of what ive seen of watson pretty much has him as the auto at 10 in SF, maybe one or two higher or lower but thats right about his average.
But yeah 16 class was brutal at the top, Coleman, treadwell and doctson were just ahout the consensus 1.2-4 in some order

[Straycatz2]

Maybe a related question I could've asked: Anyone in the 2022 draft class have a decent floor, but maybe not a high ceiling? Like someone you are "meh" about but think he can be a 60-800-4 TD kind of "double" instead of trying to swing for the fences? Cause that sort of profile would actually be tempting, lol, when trying to avoid a huge miss.

My pick would be Olave as someone who is really safe.
Olave and Wilson are basically carbon copy of each other, same size, weight, and even stats in college. Wilson is better at YAC and Olave is a better route runner and separator.
Olave is also in a better situation. Clear path to WR1 (Thomas is 29 and can't get on the field) with not much competition and has really had a great camp. QB is average and doesn't suck at least. Olave ceiling is probably Calvin Ridley who was a WR1 before having issues.

If you are a fan of Reception Perception, Matt has charted his routes and hes the best WR against Man coverage and best WR against Press coverage in this draft class with the same ratings as Waddle, E Moore, DeVonta Smith in that category and we know that group turned out pretty well. Takes some skill to be great against Man and Press.

Matt Wadman - #1 WR in this draft
Matt Harmon - #2 WR
Player Profiler - #2 WR

So some respected names also think pretty highly of Olave. I don't have any shares of him, but he went #1 WR in one of my drafts.

Also if you are looking to trade for a 2023 pick, Olave is in a great spot to look good and improve his value this year with Kamara suspension and Thomas in limbo. The sportsbook I use has Olave as the WR with the best chance to win Rookie of the Year, which if happens, should be able to be parlayed into something decent in 2023 picks.

[wickerkat1212]

Maybe a related question I could've asked: Anyone in the 2022 draft class have a decent floor, but maybe not a high ceiling? Like someone you are "meh" about but think he can be a 60-800-4 TD kind of "double" instead of trying to swing for the fences? Cause that sort of profile would actually be tempting, lol, when trying to avoid a huge miss.

My pick would be Olave as someone who is really safe.
Olave and Wilson are basically carbon copy of each other, same size, weight, and even stats in college. Wilson is better at YAC and Olave is a better route runner and separator.
Olave is also in a better situation. Clear path to WR1 (Thomas is 29 and can't get on the field) with not much competition and has really had a great camp. QB is average and doesn't suck at least. Olave ceiling is probably Calvin Ridley who was a WR1 before having issues.

If you are a fan of Reception Perception, Matt has charted his routes and hes the best WR against Man coverage and best WR against Press coverage in this draft class with the same ratings as Waddle, E Moore, DeVonta Smith in that category and we know that group turned out pretty well. Takes some skill to be great against Man and Press.

Matt Wadman - #1 WR in this draft
Matt Harmon - #2 WR
Player Profiler - #2 WR

So some respected names also think pretty highly of Olave. I don't have any shares of him, but he went #1 WR in one of my drafts.

Also if you are looking to trade for a 2023 pick, Olave is in a great spot to look good and improve his value this year with Kamara suspension and Thomas in limbo. The sportsbook I use has Olave as the WR with the best chance to win Rookie of the Year, which if happens, should be able to be parlayed into something decent in 2023 picks.

I also agree on Olave. I traded in to get him. And think he'll be a solid WR2 PPR to start with upside, eventually a WR1.

[MacDaddy123]

1st round players that I am avoiding are:

Chris Olave
Christian Watson
James Cook
Rachaad White (borderline 1st)

[mild]

1st round players that I am avoiding are:

Chris Olave
Christian Watson
James Cook
Rachaad White (borderline 1st)

Why would you avoid Chris Olave?

That's crazy talk to me. He's possibly the safest pick that you can get all through the 1st this year.

[mgscott]

1st round players that I am avoiding are:

Chris Olave
Christian Watson
James Cook
Rachaad White (borderline 1st)

Why would you avoid Chris Olave?

That's crazy talk to me. He's possibly the safest pick that you can get all through the 1st this year.

I agree with both of you. I think he is one of the safest picks for a WR, but would avoid him since I think he has a low ceiling. My expectation for him is a dime a dozen WR for fantasy so I would prefer using an early to mid first on a player with more upside. That's just my drafting philosophy, but I wont begrudge anyone drafting him for safety.

[Cameron Giles]

London:

+ Great breakout age
+ Good target share in school
+ One of the few WRs in this class who turns 21 right before their rookie season
+ Leaped Amon Ra St Brown as a sophomore (who looks to have been under drafted)
+ Matt Harmon's reception perception charted him as a competent route runner at minimum
+ Walking into a situation with a lot of targets free with Ridley and Gage gone
+ Played a lot of slot in college, so more versatile than you think.

And this isn't even mentioning any of his physical traits: 95th percentile catch radius, plus athlete, good speed for size, good body control.

I would be pretty surprised if he is a bust. He seems like one of the safest WRs in this class. I can see the Vincent Jackson comps.

I am 100% not an analytics guys and know that probably has me miss on prospects. However, in my amateur sit on the couch and talk about rookie prospect experience, I have never seen a top flight prospect WR I am more scared of based on me watching him playing the game of football. Feel free to use this at my expense if I am wrong, but I just don't see it.

I felt better after reading Harmon's writeup on him:

+ Absolutely dominated zone coverage underneath
+ His 72.8% success rate vs man coverage similar to 2019 Ja'Marr Chase (73.2%)
+ Inside/outside ability - played a lot of slot in college, so he can line up all over
+ Led all prospects in contested catch rate - 95th percentile catch radius

I'm actually surprised that people think London is low floor. I don't think he's immune from disappointing, but on paper, he checks the major boxes people look for in a dream WR

+ Freshman breakout (as Jigga said, in spite of playing with two WRs who've been very good in the NFL so far)
+ Elite target share in college
+ Turning 21 at the start of his rookie season
+ Competent route running
+ Plus athleticism
+ Good speed for size
+ Pedigree (4-star HS WR, Top-10 NFL Pick)
+ Elite catch radius
+ Heading to a team with immediate target volume

A good mix of analytic and tape watch hits. I don't think he's going to become a superstar, but how many other WRs in this class bring the above to the table?

[Straycatz2]

+ Freshman breakout (as Jigga said, in spite of playing with two WRs who've been very good in the NFL so far)
+ Elite target share in college
+ Turning 21 at the start of his rookie season
+ Competent route running
+ Plus athleticism
+ Good speed for size
+ Pedigree (4-star HS WR, Top-10 NFL Pick)
+ Elite catch radius
+ Heading to a team with immediate target volume

Didn't N'Keal Harry also have many of these same traits?

[Ice]

London:

+ Great breakout age
+ Good target share in school
+ One of the few WRs in this class who turns 21 right before their rookie season
+ Leaped Amon Ra St Brown as a sophomore (who looks to have been under drafted)
+ Matt Harmon's reception perception charted him as a competent route runner at minimum
+ Walking into a situation with a lot of targets free with Ridley and Gage gone
+ Played a lot of slot in college, so more versatile than you think.

And this isn't even mentioning any of his physical traits: 95th percentile catch radius, plus athlete, good speed for size, good body control.

I would be pretty surprised if he is a bust. He seems like one of the safest WRs in this class. I can see the Vincent Jackson comps.

I am 100% not an analytics guys and know that probably has me miss on prospects. However, in my amateur sit on the couch and talk about rookie prospect experience, I have never seen a top flight prospect WR I am more scared of based on me watching him playing the game of football. Feel free to use this at my expense if I am wrong, but I just don't see it.

I felt better after reading Harmon's writeup on him:

+ Absolutely dominated zone coverage underneath
+ His 72.8% success rate vs man coverage similar to 2019 Ja'Marr Chase (73.2%)
+ Inside/outside ability - played a lot of slot in college, so he can line up all over
+ Led all prospects in contested catch rate - 95th percentile catch radius

I'm actually surprised that people think London is low floor. I don't think he's immune from disappointing, but on paper, he checks the major boxes people look for in a dream WR

+ Freshman breakout (as Jigga said, in spite of playing with two WRs who've been very good in the NFL so far)
+ Elite target share in college
+ Turning 21 at the start of his rookie season
+ Competent route running
+ Plus athleticism
+ Good speed for size
+ Pedigree (4-star HS WR, Top-10 NFL Pick)
+ Elite catch radius
+ Heading to a team with immediate target volume

A good mix of analytic and tape watch hits. I don't think he's going to become a superstar, but how many other WRs in this class bring the above to the table?

I get people really like him but I keep reading he has good speed for his size? What does that even mean? Players like DK Metcalf and Pitt's on the other hand actually do have good speed for their size.

I am pretty hard on London because he looks labored running, he doesn't have a lot of juice. The one thing I do like is he cuts well for a big man and that may give him the separation needed to be productive in the slot.

Seems the analytic crowd has come up with "good speed for his size" for some reason to justify the fact he is slow. I could buy into he is slow but really makes good sharp cuts for his size. Just sayin....