The Dak Prescott Thread - Gets A New Deal

[Cameron Giles]

Dallas currently has the 6th overall pick in a class that is heavy on QBs. So, they could go about this two ways:

A. Re-sign Dak, but they would likely need to shed some salary long-term to make it work. I'm looking at Zeke's ($13.7M) contract and Amari Cooper's contract ($22.7M).

B. Draft a rookie, bring Dalton back as the bridge starter, and use the cap savings to improve a bad defense.

I think B sounds more feasible for their situation.

[Ice]

Dak is a stud! Huge fan but If Dallas can get 1.1 they should move on.

If not, sign or tag him again.

He is/was the best QB in that class and better than anyone this class not named Lawrence IMO.

[Pac_Eddy]

I think Dallas should keep and pay him, even if they are in a tough salary cap situation, AND draft a rookie QB. QB is the most important position and they themselves have proved it this season. I know no one in the NFL does this, but it's what I would do.

Jalen Hurts

+1 borderline fanbase draft-day riot

Good point, forgot about Hurts. Yeah, it pays to draft a QB even if it's not a need.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

Well Dallas does have the franchise tag as leverage, so Dak isn't going to be receiving any offers this year from other teams unless Dallas gives him permission to seek a trade. There's no chance Dallas just lets him hit UFA this offseason.

do they?

it will cost them $38m to franchise tag him again.

[bjd5211]

Well Dallas does have the franchise tag as leverage, so Dak isn't going to be receiving any offers this year from other teams unless Dallas gives him permission to seek a trade. There's no chance Dallas just lets him hit UFA this offseason.

do they?

it will cost them $38m to franchise tag him again.

The same he's going to cost annually on a longterm deal, they will absolutely tag him again if they don't reach a contract extension.

[nathanq42]

Well Dallas does have the franchise tag as leverage, so Dak isn't going to be receiving any offers this year from other teams unless Dallas gives him permission to seek a trade. There's no chance Dallas just lets him hit UFA this offseason.

do they?

it will cost them $38m to franchise tag him again.

The same he's going to cost annually on a longterm deal, they will absolutely tag him again if they don't reach a contract extension.

Im not familiar with the new CBA, but if Dak wanted to, could he sign the tag and have an "injury" in practice and not play but still collect his money for the season and accrue a year against the tag?

[bjd5211]

do they?

it will cost them $38m to franchise tag him again.

The same he's going to cost annually on a longterm deal, they will absolutely tag him again if they don't reach a contract extension.

Im not familiar with the new CBA, but if Dak wanted to, could he sign the tag and have an "injury" in practice and not play but still collect his money for the season and accrue a year against the tag?

Sure theoretically he could, but that would be a very bad look for him and just not at all in line with his personality. There would probably be a major fight over it from the Cowboys medical staff too that would lead to all kinds of drama, and if it were proven he was faking he would probably be out the money and his tag number would probably stay at the same number rather than increase to the impossible amount a 3rd tag would be. So for a variety of reasons that is not going to happen.

The possible outcomes are going to be

1 Dallas and Dak reach an extension before the tag deadline

2 Dallas tags him and reaches an extension later in the offseason

3 Dallas tags him and he plays out the season and gets an extension or hits Free Agency in '22 because Cowboys can't afford to tag him 3 times

4 Dallas tags him and then trades him, almost certainly taking a QB in the 1st round with this option

[Meretc01]

The same he's going to cost annually on a longterm deal, they will absolutely tag him again if they don't reach a contract extension.

Im not familiar with the new CBA, but if Dak wanted to, could he sign the tag and have an "injury" in practice and not play but still collect his money for the season and accrue a year against the tag?

Sure theoretically he could, but that would be a very bad look for him and just not at all in line with his personality. There would probably be a major fight over it from the Cowboys medical staff too that would lead to all kinds of drama, and if it were proven he was faking he would probably be out the money and his tag number would probably stay at the same number rather than increase to the impossible amount a 3rd tag would be. So for a variety of reasons that is not going to happen.

The possible outcomes are going to be

1 Dallas and Dak reach an extension before the tag deadline

2 Dallas tags him and reaches an extension later in the offseason

3 Dallas tags him and he plays out the season and gets an extension or hits Free Agency in '22 because Cowboys can't afford to tag him 3 times

4 Dallas tags him and then trades him, almost certainly taking a QB in the 1st round with this option

If they tag him the media will go absolutely bonkers... they already did him dirty by not giving him an extension he deserved.. he signs the tag which he didn’t wanna do and now he gets hurt.. dak has the leverage.

In order to tag dak they will need to restructure money to sign him.. what if they do that? He doesn’t need to sign that until week 10 of the regular season.. they will be out of the playoffs and that’s wasted money on their part. There is no sense on doing all that work for nothing

[bjd5211]

Lol he's not going to holdout, and if he did it will then be prorated for the games he's there.

[Mjvb5]

The likely hood is strong that Dak goes back to Dallas.. but on the top of my head I can name 3 places I’d rather be at that isn’t Dallas... Indy, Denver, SF, all have strong defenses and very up and coming offenses.. SF being the most lucrative spot for outside money.. Dallas is a sinking ship and they need to lock him down to a deal he wants. The cowboys have no leverage in negotiating. If his drive is money and Dallas even come close than I’d be hard press to see if he doesnt test the market. He might still sign with Dallas but if he gets offers from other teams then that puts ALOT of pressure on Dallas. Dak is the cowboys best option currently.

All Jeudy holders collectively hold their breath.

Sutton and Hamler owners too. Dak was supporting 3 wrs to varying degrees.

He was easily supporting lamb and cooper. Gallup super hit or miss but was still a wr3 I beleive
Also a top 8 rb and a top 5 TE. Yeah almost any team he goes to gets a huge bump

[Mike11]

I wrote a pretty extensive analysis on Dak from a fantasy lens 2 weeks ago, but a lot of that analysis shows to me why they should sign him. For anyone who wants that information in more depth I dropped it below (It was more why people should buy Dak but I also think it's why he's elite and the cowboys should keep him):

Anyone playing in 2QB or Superflex leagues will tell you, buying top end QB talent that is young and elite is extremely difficult 95% of the time. I wanted to start this post with the obvious caveat; if someone is currently out of contention then it's very unlikely they would be willing to move Prescott for any kind of realistic discount. However week 13 can sometimes be a make or break time for someone and they can decide that they want to play for this year, it's possible a lesser QB + someone having an excellent season could draw Prescott away from them for a chance at a title.

Now that the initial premise has been established for Dak's buy window, I want to further analyze Dak as a player and why I think it's likely he becomes a top 3 dynasty QB (some had him there pre-injury, but we've also seen the emergence of Herbert, Allen, etc. and his health might be coming into question pushing him to QB5, 6, 7, 8). First the question many people have is: will Dak's injury limit his mobility and diminish his athleticism? https://dynastydraftroom.com/what-to-ma ... r-dynasty/ Does an excellent job evaluating his injury, but the long story short is the following players have had similar injuries and rebounded completely fine:

-Darren Sproles in his second year (didn't affect his explosiveness long term and happened a while ago leaving the door open for better and improved surgical methods today)
-OBJ (Rookie year, didn't slow him down)
-Paul George / Gordon Hayward (Both George and Hayward require a lot of up/down force on their ankle constantly and haven't been hobbled by this)

and then the one many compare:
- Alex Smith (Note: This is not an Alex Smith incident, Alex Smith's complications were not from the injury but the infections associated with recovery. We've already had doctors say no infections have occurred and Dak is ahead of schedule in his recovery)

Now that we've gotten through the initial premise of injury lets discuss the season Dak was having as a fantasy asset and some of the general gripes people have historically had with him. These are his following finishes since entering the league

2016: QB 7
2017: QB 10
2018: QB 14

2019: QB 2 For a further deep dive from an analytics perspective:
4,902 Yards [Ranks 2nd]
30 TDs [4th]
99.7 Rating [10th]
79.5 Rating with Pressure [8th]
3.7 Sack % [4th]
1.8% Int Rate [13th]
76.1% Adjusted Completion Percentage [14th]

2020: Fantasy Points through week 5 (Variance based on scoring expected but 4 Pt/TD): 17.64, 39.8, 33.48, 39.28, 12.94 (Injured in 3rd quarter)

Now, elephant in the room from these games; was Dak possibly taking advantage of softer matchups with the exception of the Rams week one? Absolutely, it should be considered. Did Dak throw a ton because that defense was god awful? While both of those statements are true, it doesn't mean this level of play can't continue; he was QB 2 with a better defensive cast in 2019. In 2020, Dak was averaging 32.55 PPG in the 4 games he finished with stats of 1690 Passing yards, 9 Pass TD / 3 INT ratio, 86 rushing yards, 3 rushing tds, 1 receiving TD. What I like best about these stats is the fact that Dak didn't need his legs to be an elite fantasy asset. As I look into the tier of really great, elite dynasty QBs, what everyone notices is Kyler, Lamar, and to a lesser extent Allen have an extremely safe floor because of their rushing.

What we've learned in the dynasty community from continued experience is rushing makes elite QBs but it doesn't necessarily equal sustained year over year success without an improved ability to actually throw the football. Kyler is having an electric year, I wouldn't necessarily say move Dak over him, but my point is there is a lot of reasons to expect Dak to be a more consistent fantasy producer moving forward compared to Lamar and Allen who are near the elite tier but are much less consistent throwers. I would rather have Dak's level of mobility while being closer to Mahomes level of air production (maybe this is overly simplistic because no one is Mahomes, but that's the spectrum I'm looking at)

While my premise around buying Dak has shown the reasons I like him moving forward, I want to discuss his trajectory and how he's already improved in a manner to think he will continue to become a better real life QB as well.

Some of the inconsistencies that have been noted as reasons the Cowboys shouldn't extend Dak and why he isn't or wasn't elite in 2019:
-Ability to process reads and "bust zones" (Dak was considered inconsistent at doing this and sometimes the wrong read lead to turnovers)
-Eye manipulation (Ability to not "lock onto a target" pre-snap and immediately after the snap therefor leading to giving away your play to the defense)
-Not taking what's "given to him" (I don't see this as something that was a major red flag, but I did notice some using this as a critique against him in 2019 so I feel in all fairness it should be included)

Looking into 2020, the tape says Dak was improving significantly in these areas. Although it was a small sample size:
-Dak's zone reads and eye manipulation became massively improved
-He was better at looking off safeties to make throws easier for himself after noticing pre-read that a player would be wide open (For example: breaking the seam on cover 2 after his receiver was deep to make an easy touchdown).
-Dak also became better at ripping it into tight coverage (if you look at the window he threaded it to Amari in against the Browns it's a great example and this was an area people have had gripes with him about in the past)
-Dak constantly was under pressure to score every possession but didn't become sloppy (While this playstyle can force turnovers and incompletions, Dak didn't succumb to this in my opinion)

So overall, I think there's a lot to be excited about with Dak. He's only 27 (will be 28 next year) and can still continue to tweak and improve his game. He has excellent mechanics and is an extremely hard worker so I can envision he continues to improve on the areas people see as deficiencies. I think it's very likely the Cowboys resign him and his elite weapons continue allowing him to play at a high level. If the Cowboys don't resign him, the Colts have a ton of cap and could go after him; while their weapons aren't the caliber of Dallas, it's likely they bring in another receiver and they have an elite line so this wouldn't even be a big hit to Dak's fantasy value in my eyes. Frank Reich is also a great coach to continue developing Dak as a player.

I have Dak as my QB 3 in dynasty moving forward (Behind Mahomes, Kyler), but peoples perception of his injury and team uncertainty might allow you to get him at QB6-8 prices. Add in the fact that possible contenders may be more willing to move a near immovable asset when healthy and I feel the time to buy is NOW. Hopefully this topic can generate some good discussion and possibly allow people to explore trading for Dak while the buy window is still open.

Thanks for the read!

[DLF3000]

Couldn't believe they couldn't agree on an extension this summer. Ultimately still expect him to be a Cowboy long-term even though the injury and the new financial realities definitely complicate things.

Though him as a Bronco would be pretty cool too. Even though I really think it's a pipe dream.

[murphysxm]

If Dak is not a Cowboy next year I will root for the Patriots to win the SB. That is how confident I am he returns

Blasphemy.

What if the colts sign him?

Ballard ain't opening up that checkbook, but point taken!

[Blackout]

I use this thread even if you talk about his real situation

Fantasy wise, what is his value right now ? I've got Josh Allen and owning two studs is not necessary

[bjd5211]

I use this thread even if you talk about his real situation

Fantasy wise, what is his value right now ? I've got Josh Allen and owning two studs is not necessary

Well I'm assuming it's 1QB since "owning two studs is not necessary", and in those leagues QB is going to be pretty deflated in value. Doubt you get much more than a mid 2, QB just isn't that valuable and Dak will probably be valued near the bottom or just outside of the top 10 QBs going into next season.