Josh Allen - Time to Believe!

[Jigga94]

As an Allen owner I really enjoy what he is doing right now. Objectively though I am going to try and move him. This season reminds me a lot of another QB I have, Goff. What I suspect is like Goff, Allen can be coached and schemed into great success. However at the end of it all they revert as defenses learn what rattles them or figure out the scheme. Enjoy the ride but at least get a really backup plan if you think he is gonna be your longterm main squeeze.

You very well may be right. It all depends on what you can get for him though. I have him as my 2nd QB to Mahomes and am loving that combo. This could easily be one of Allen's best seasons of his career. But I'm inclined to think he will be very good for a while. He's got probably the strongest arm in the league and has continued to improve each year. His rushing seems to have slowed down (haven't checked the numbers but it looks to me like he's not rushing as much) which is fine for his long term prospects. I don't see why he shouldn't be ranked up there with the Daks, Lamars and Watson's behind only Mahomes and maybe Kyler for certain

[CGW]

As an Allen owner I really enjoy what he is doing right now. Objectively though I am going to try and move him. This season reminds me a lot of another QB I have, Goff. What I suspect is like Goff, Allen can be coached and schemed into great success. However at the end of it all they revert as defenses learn what rattles them or figure out the scheme. Enjoy the ride but at least get a really backup plan if you think he is gonna be your longterm main squeeze.

You very well may be right. It all depends on what you can get for him though. I have him as my 2nd QB to Mahomes and am loving that combo. This could easily be one of Allen's best seasons of his career. But I'm inclined to think he will be very good for a while. He's got probably the strongest arm in the league and has continued to improve each year. His rushing seems to have slowed down (haven't checked the numbers but it looks to me like he's not rushing as much) which is fine for his long term prospects. I don't see why he shouldn't be ranked up there with the Daks, Lamars and Watson's behind only Mahomes and maybe Kyler for certain

Along with his accuracy, this was always my concern with him. He was the guy that initiated contact way more than I care my QBs to. It's his competitive nature, which is why i thought he'd never be able to turn it off. He's largely made much smarter decisions running the ball this year from what I've seen which can only be looked at as a positive for longevity.

[OhCruelestRanter]

At this point I think he's a hold in 2QB but he might be a sell in 1QB leagues. This season was good enough that he's likely going to get an extension and remain a starter for several years- his floor is now basically a Carson Wentz collapse. Coupled with likely low-end QB1 output over those seasons, and he's really valuable in 2QB leagues.

In 1QB? If you can get a "difference maker QB" return for him, I'd take it. I don't think he's in the Mahomes-Watson-Jackson tier.

[Yarnith]

To clarify I am saying that if you can sell him as a top 5 QB sell him. If you had sold Goff 2 years ago many people would have had him right there with Mahomes in value, 2 years later Goff is a meh QB you really rather have as your backup.

[Cameron Giles]

At this point I think he's a hold in 2QB but he might be a sell in 1QB leagues. This season was good enough that he's likely going to get an extension and remain a starter for several years- his floor is now basically a Carson Wentz collapse. Coupled with likely low-end QB1 output over those seasons, and he's really valuable in 2QB leagues.

In 1QB? If you can get a "difference maker QB" return for him, I'd take it. I don't think he's in the Mahomes-Watson-Jackson tier.

I'd argue that Allen is a better dynasty QB than Jackson. I wouldn't pony up assets to add to Allen in 1QB or 2QB to get Jackson. I'd rather just keep those and add to my team. If I had Jackson, I'd go fishing to see if someone would give me a "worse" QB + assets.

Allen is on pace for 4,536 passing yards and a 35/11 TD-INT line + 6 rushing touchdowns. Lamar Jackson is on pace for 2,740 passing yards and a 23-9 TD-INT + 4 rushing touchdowns. What do I gain by trading Allen and assets for Jackson?

Lamar Jackson's best season is built on an unsustainable touchdown rate (9.1%) and an unsustainable amount of rushing yards for a QB (80/gm). Both numbers are down this season among other things (60 rushing yards/gm, 5.8 TD%). Allen is saving his legs and actually running less each game now that he has weapons and a good offensive coordinator.

Both are mobile QBs, but Jackson's value depends significantly more on his rushing ability and we all know that high volume rushing QBs have a shelf life, just like running backs do.

I'm not saying Lamar stinks, but just like Cam Newton, he's going to have a hard time bouncing back unless he develops as a passer. All that wear/tear from running so much is going to add up and when he gets older he will have to rely on his passing ability. And we've seen how that's worked for Cam.

[OhCruelestRanter]

At this point I think he's a hold in 2QB but he might be a sell in 1QB leagues. This season was good enough that he's likely going to get an extension and remain a starter for several years- his floor is now basically a Carson Wentz collapse. Coupled with likely low-end QB1 output over those seasons, and he's really valuable in 2QB leagues.

In 1QB? If you can get a "difference maker QB" return for him, I'd take it. I don't think he's in the Mahomes-Watson-Jackson tier.

I'd argue that Allen is a better dynasty QB than Jackson. I wouldn't pony up assets to add to Allen in 1QB or 2QB to get Jackson. I'd rather just keep those and add to my team. If I had Jackson, I'd go fishing to see if someone would give me a "worse" QB + assets.

Allen is on pace for 4,536 passing yards and a 35/11 TD-INT line + 6 rushing touchdowns. Lamar Jackson is on pace for 2,740 passing yards and a 23-9 TD-INT + 4 rushing touchdowns. What do I gain by trading Allen and assets for Jackson?

Lamar Jackson's best season is built on an unsustainable touchdown rate (9.1%) and an unsustainable amount of rushing yards for a QB (80/gm). Both numbers are down this season among other things (60 rushing yards/gm, 5.8 TD%). Allen is saving his legs and actually running less each game now that he has weapons and a good offensive coordinator.

Both are mobile QBs, but Jackson's value depends significantly more on his rushing ability and we all know that high volume rushing QBs have a shelf life, just like running backs do.

I'm not saying Lamar stinks, but just like Cam Newton, he's going to have a hard time bouncing back unless he develops as a passer. All that wear/tear from running so much is going to add up and when he gets older he will have to rely on his passing ability. And we've seen how that's worked for Cam.

These are all valid points- I'd argue that:
1. Jackson's situation (banged up O-Line, predictable playcalling, lack of WR1) can improve considerably, while Allen's situation is already great.
2. Jackson's 2019 TD rate is absolutely unsustainable, I agree, but he could also just throw the ball more than the meager 401 attempts he had last year.
3. At age 22 Jackson put up one of the 5 best fantasy seasons ever.

If you have the same concerns about Jackson that I do about Allen, I disagree, but I think that's fine. I feel more strongly that Mahomes, Watson, and Russ are safer as consistent mid-high end QB1s and that if you can get that price for Allen in a 1QB league, you should cash out.

I think it's reasonable to have concerns about Allen, Jackson, and Murray. Allen had two awful years, but looks great now in a better situation. Jackson looks worse this year, but at least Allen (this year) and Jackson (last year) have had one really efficient season as a passer. Murray hasn't. Doesn't mean he can't, and I'd be happy to have him, but I think it's weird that people are suddenly incredibly wary of Jackson but seem fine that Murray is a near consensus QB2.

[CGW]

At this point I think he's a hold in 2QB but he might be a sell in 1QB leagues. This season was good enough that he's likely going to get an extension and remain a starter for several years- his floor is now basically a Carson Wentz collapse. Coupled with likely low-end QB1 output over those seasons, and he's really valuable in 2QB leagues.

In 1QB? If you can get a "difference maker QB" return for him, I'd take it. I don't think he's in the Mahomes-Watson-Jackson tier.

I'd argue that Allen is a better dynasty QB than Jackson. I wouldn't pony up assets to add to Allen in 1QB or 2QB to get Jackson. I'd rather just keep those and add to my team. If I had Jackson, I'd go fishing to see if someone would give me a "worse" QB + assets.

Allen is on pace for 4,536 passing yards and a 35/11 TD-INT line + 6 rushing touchdowns. Lamar Jackson is on pace for 2,740 passing yards and a 23-9 TD-INT + 4 rushing touchdowns. What do I gain by trading Allen and assets for Jackson?

Lamar Jackson's best season is built on an unsustainable touchdown rate (9.1%) and an unsustainable amount of rushing yards for a QB (80/gm). Both numbers are down this season among other things (60 rushing yards/gm, 5.8 TD%). Allen is saving his legs and actually running less each game now that he has weapons and a good offensive coordinator.

Both are mobile QBs, but Jackson's value depends significantly more on his rushing ability and we all know that high volume rushing QBs have a shelf life, just like running backs do.

I'm not saying Lamar stinks, but just like Cam Newton, he's going to have a hard time bouncing back unless he develops as a passer. All that wear/tear from running so much is going to add up and when he gets older he will have to rely on his passing ability. And we've seen how that's worked for Cam.

These are all valid points- I'd argue that:
1. Jackson's situation (banged up O-Line, predictable playcalling, lack of WR1) can improve considerably, while Allen's situation is already great.
2. Jackson's 2019 TD rate is absolutely unsustainable, I agree, but he could also just throw the ball more than the meager 401 attempts he had last year.
3. At age 22 Jackson put up one of the 5 best fantasy seasons ever.

If you have the same concerns about Jackson that I do about Allen, I disagree, but I think that's fine. I feel more strongly that Mahomes, Watson, and Russ are safer as consistent mid-high end QB1s and that if you can get that price for Allen in a 1QB league, you should cash out.

I think it's reasonable to have concerns about Allen, Jackson, and Murray. Allen had two awful years, but looks great now in a better situation. Jackson looks worse this year, but at least Allen (this year) and Jackson (last year) have had one really efficient season as a passer. Murray hasn't. Doesn't mean he can't, and I'd be happy to have him, but I think it's weird that people are suddenly incredibly wary of Jackson but seem fine that Murray is a near consensus QB2.

Not to turn this into a Murray thread, but i am curious what about Murray's season isn't fairly efficient so far? Completing 67% of his passes and in pace for 29 TD and 13 INT. The INT are high, but hes only had one multi INT game. I could see the argument that they just throw a bunch of short passes, but was surprised his CAY is in the top half of the league, so he completes some decently long passes on average.

I think it's fair to have reservations on any of these three guys, but I'd personally be happy with all three on my team.

[Ice]

I would take Allen and Murry above Jackson in Dynasty on arm talent alone.

The reason Allen doesn't run as much these days is simple; He doesn't have to due to far better receiving options today.

[Jigga94]

I would take Allen and Murry above Jackson in Dynasty on arm talent alone.

The reason Allen doesn't run as much these days is simple; He doesn't have to due to far better receiving options today.

Isn't that the main reason to value anyone over Lamar?

I agree on the pass catchers. Diggs has really opened that offense up. Beasley and the rest aren't bad receivers either, just could never be the main threat. I think Allen is also just maturing a bit and not trying to throw his body around anymore

[Ice]

I would take Allen and Murry above Jackson in Dynasty on arm talent alone.

The reason Allen doesn't run as much these days is simple; He doesn't have to due to far better receiving options today.

Isn't that the main reason to value anyone over Lamar?

I agree on the pass catchers. Diggs has really opened that offense up. Beasley and the rest aren't bad receivers either, just could never be the main threat. I think Allen is also just maturing a bit and not trying to throw his body around anymore

It is if they have elite arm talent. I am a big fan of Jackson but concerned his arm won't develop as fast as his legs degrade.

[Jigga94]

I would take Allen and Murry above Jackson in Dynasty on arm talent alone.

The reason Allen doesn't run as much these days is simple; He doesn't have to due to far better receiving options today.

Isn't that the main reason to value anyone over Lamar?

I agree on the pass catchers. Diggs has really opened that offense up. Beasley and the rest aren't bad receivers either, just could never be the main threat. I think Allen is also just maturing a bit and not trying to throw his body around anymore

It is if they have elite arm talent. I am a big fan of Jackson but concerned his arm won't develop as fast as his legs degrade.

I agree. I thought he'd progress more this year but it's almost like he's moved backwards. He makes some real nice throws at times though

[CGW]

I need him to have less than 10 points tonight...so for tonight I do not believe.

[Jigga94]

I need him to have less than 10 points tonight...so for tonight I do not believe.

Sorry, he's legit. Started slow but beat a tough defense that sent a lot of pressure tonight. Even more impressive considering they have 0 run game. He misses a few throws deep that could've made a huge difference

[notweswelker]

He was even better than the stat line indicated tonight vs the vaunted steelers defense. His INT was from Dawson stone hands Knox literally tossing up a ball he had caught.. up into the air. He also had a few drops from Gabe Davis and a big run called back.

No looking back now, Josh Allen has arrived.

[Jigga94]

He was even better than the stat line indicated tonight vs the vaunted steelers defense. His INT was from Dawson stone hands Knox literally tossing up a ball he had caught.. up into the air. He also had a few drops from Gabe Davis and a big run called back.

No looking back now, Josh Allen has arrived.

He was great but...

1. His INT was when he threw it and got his arm/hand touched on the follow through. It was short by a lot and was an easy pick. I guess more of a forced turnover than a mental error. The Knox turnover was a fumble credited to him (at least on ESPN)

2. I could've missed a drop it 2 while watching but I remember seeing 2 passes that went to Davis and both looked like drops. On the replay though, I saw the first was batted away before it got to him even though the one angle looked like it got his hands. The other was punched out before he could fully come down with it. That one's probably on him but not like they were Diontae Johnson drops at least.

3. That holding on the big run is basically what made the play happen. Not sure he gets much further past the LOS if that defender wasn't held

Still, a big night and led his team to a win vs one of the best defenses out there