Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

[bjd5211]

My question is who of that current group of 4 takes Julio's path and stays relevant. Because he belongs in any conversation about top wr from those same years and is still producing strong when not hampered injuries

And yet his dynasty value is not on par with his production because of his age, which is the same thing that is happening or will soon for guys like MT/Adams/Hill/Nuk.

[Jigga94]

My question is who of that current group of 4 takes Julio's path and stays relevant. Because he belongs in any conversation about top wr from those same years and is still producing strong when not hampered injuries

And yet his dynasty value is not on par with his production because of his age, which is the same thing that is happening or will soon for guys like MT/Adams/Hill/Nuk.

Right but I think his point is, that you could've bought Julio at almost any time and got a good return if competing.

My guess of the 4 would be Hopkins. Tyreek is younger by a year so he's got a good chance as well.

[TD41]

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't truther status reserved for players that haven't really broken out due to situation/injury/opportunity but you still believe in?

To see someone say they're the biggest DK truther... Nobody is questioning whether he's a bad dude. Maybe after 3-cone Gate? But that ship sailed the minute the guy took the field.

And this is coming from the biggest Tom Brady truther on the forum(Jokes)

[gogobradyarm]

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't truther status reserved for players that haven't really broken out due to situation/injury/opportunity but you still believe in?

To see someone say they're the biggest DK truther... Nobody is questioning whether he's a bad dude. Maybe after 3-cone Gate? But that ship sailed the minute the guy took the field.

And this is coming from the biggest Tom Brady truther on the forum(Jokes)

Think you're in the wrong thread. Justin Jefferson is the messiah.

[TD41]

It amazes me how people year after year get stuck on thinking situations stay the same.

We're a year removed from Russ's Seahawks being considered too low volume to support a top 5 dynasty WR. Same for AJB and the Titans.

Kirk Cousins isn't Russell Wilson but he's thrown for 4000+ yards and just under 30 TDs four times. That is plenty to support a top dynasty WR. Heck he has thrown for almost 5000 yards in a season. The 19th most passing yards in a season in NFL history, and 700 yards more than Wilson's career high coming into this year.

Obviously having Russ now that he's cooking is a huge boon for DK. But these things change so fast. Cousins has shown the capability of supporting top WRs before. Maybe all it takes is a Cook injury or Cook being less effective or a coaching change or a QB change or simply a coaching change of heart (which is what happened in Seattle) and the Vikings could be right back to throwing for 4000+ yards per season again. The dude is 21 there is plenty of runway for him to land in good passing offenses throughout his career.

And like I said, the only difference between DK and JJ in their current PPR standings is TDs, which are volataile.

Obviously I'd take DK over JJ personally, but I'm just saying he's in the conversation. He's a few TDs behind DK despite being a rookie playing in a much worse offense. That is pretty remarkable.

Nobody is getting “stuck” on the idea that situations stay the same. Do you want us to now predict that the Vikings situation is going to get better, and factor that into JJ’s current value? You just spent three paragraphs dishing out some kirk cousin stats and projecting hypothetical situations.

If it does in fact get better then our assessment of the situation will change accordingly. If you’d “obviously take DK over JJ personally” then we are on the same page, as is almost everyone on this thread. We all agree what JJ has done is remarkable, however it isn’t enough to have any substantial argument about him being the current dynasty #1 WR. This shouldn’t be that hard to follow

Sorry if I wasn't clear on the "obviously I'd take DK" part. I was referencing that I am probably the biggest DK truther on this forum. If you go look through the last few pages of the DK thread you'll see that. I was touting him as the dynasty WR1 a month before everyone else.

I'm just pointing out that a few years ago Kirk Cousins was considered a QB that everyone wanted their FF WR to play for and the Seahawks were a team that no one wanted their FF WR's to be a part of. So saying these guys aren't comparable due to situation when we're talking about a 21 and 22 year old who's situations are likely to be starkly different 2 years from now much less 6 years from now is kind of excessive.

JJ being outpaced by only 3 catches and 50 yards against many people's dynasty Wr1 while playing as a rookie on a run first offense while that dynasty WR1 plays on what will likely be the best half season his QB will ever play is extremely noteworthy. All I'm saying is if DK belongs in the conversation for top dynasty WR (and I believe he does), then JJ does as well. Do I have him as my dynasty WR1? No, that spot is reserved for my main man DK who I've had there for a while now. But I'm not going to argue with anyone who puts JJ there. The start he's had in production, efficiency, and grading are all historic. And historically guys with this kind of start and his kind of measurables are virtually undefeated at becoming all time greats.

Was referring to this post... Not in the wrong thread.. Should've quoted to begin with I guess

[Vcize]

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't truther status reserved for players that haven't really broken out due to situation/injury/opportunity but you still believe in?

To see someone say they're the biggest DK truther... Nobody is questioning whether he's a bad dude. Maybe after 3-cone Gate? But that ship sailed the minute the guy took the field.

And this is coming from the biggest Tom Brady truther on the forum(Jokes)

I mean it's not like I became a DK truther yesterday.

I was there arguing with all of the people knocking him for his 3-cone drill, have been on board the whole ride since he entered the draft, and I called him the dynasty WR1 and likely top 3 startup pick like 6 weeks ago when everyone told me I was crazy for it. I have him in 10 out of 12 dynasty leagues I play in.

[Vcize]

I'm not trying to argue that the 4 older ones I mentioned SHOULD be ahead of the 4 younger ones. Just saying that those 4 have been in the top 5 for a few years running now (OBJ was usually the other name with them) and in the blink of an eye, they're replaced. I can't remember a swift change of the guard like this before

Dez/Demaryius/AJG were 3 foundations of the top 5 WR list for years and then they suddenly all forgot how to play football together around age 27/28 and dropped out pretty quickly.

You're right but that's different then what we are seeing now. Hopkins, Adams and Tyreek are still studs and playing very well. MT might be if it weren't for the injury. Dez and DT and AJB all fell off, but that was moreso on them. Do you remember which young WR replaced those 3 at the time?

You're right the circumstances are different since that had as much to do with those guys falling off as it did with people replacing them, but it was the first thing that came to mind in a swift changing of the guard type deal.

If I recall the young WRs that came in and replaced them were OBJ, Evans, Cooper.

[The MAC Machine]

My question is who of that current group of 4 takes Julio's path and stays relevant. Because he belongs in any conversation about top wr from those same years and is still producing strong when not hampered injuries

And yet his dynasty value is not on par with his production because of his age, which is the same thing that is happening or will soon for guys like MT/Adams/Hill/Nuk.

Names to add to this list...Golladay, Evans, Landry.

[hoos89]

Why Landry? Don't think he really belongs in that conversation....several tiers lower in value and production. Also Golladay / Evans aren't really on the Nuk/Hill/Adams tier right now in production (and Golladay has never really had that huge of a season).

[Kmani6]

Why Landry? Don't think he really belongs in that conversation....several tiers lower in value and production. Also Golladay / Evans aren't really on the Nuk/Hill/Adams tier right now in production (and Golladay has never really had that huge of a season).

He's not saying that any of Golladay/Evans/Landry belongs in the same tier as those guys you mentioned value-wise.

He was responding to the previous comment and saying that you can add these three to the MT/Adams/Hill/Nuk group of guys whose dynasty value will not be on par with their production because of their age.

This is currently the case with Julio. As you reach that 27/28 age, while arguably a peak in production for many WR's, dynasty value doesn't seem to align.

[The MAC Machine]

Why Landry? Don't think he really belongs in that conversation....several tiers lower in value and production. Also Golladay / Evans aren't really on the Nuk/Hill/Adams tier right now in production (and Golladay has never really had that huge of a season).

He's not saying that any of Golladay/Evans/Landry belongs in the same tier as those guys you mentioned value-wise.

He was responding to the previous comment and saying that you can add these three to the MT/Adams/Hill/Nuk group of guys whose dynasty value will not be on par with their production because of their age.

This is currently the case with Julio. As you reach that 27/28 age, while arguably a peak in production for many WR's, dynasty value doesn't seem to align.

winner.

[KCLep20]

It's hard for MT in particular to maintain value above the up and coming guys when the up and coming guys are outperforming right now

I'm not trying to argue that the 4 older ones I mentioned SHOULD be ahead of the 4 younger ones. Just saying that those 4 have been in the top 5 for a few years running now (OBJ was usually the other name with them) and in the blink of an eye, they're replaced. I can't remember a swift change of the guard like this before

Dez/Demaryius/AJG were 3 foundations of the top 5 WR list for years and then they suddenly all forgot how to play football together around age 27/28 and dropped out pretty quickly.

Man this one hurt...I had both AJG and DT! They killed it for a 3-4 year stretch, but injuries and QB play got the best of both of them. While you can’t predict injuries and longevity, you can align QB play with the WR to predict future production. That’s why I’m worried about Jefferson but bullish on DK...one has a legit QB for the next 5-10 and one has Kirk.

[Vcize]

Why Landry? Don't think he really belongs in that conversation....several tiers lower in value and production. Also Golladay / Evans aren't really on the Nuk/Hill/Adams tier right now in production (and Golladay has never really had that huge of a season).

He's not saying that any of Golladay/Evans/Landry belongs in the same tier as those guys you mentioned value-wise.

He was responding to the previous comment and saying that you can add these three to the MT/Adams/Hill/Nuk group of guys whose dynasty value will not be on par with their production because of their age.

This is currently the case with Julio. As you reach that 27/28 age, while arguably a peak in production for many WR's, dynasty value doesn't seem to align.

winner.

"Their value won't match their production because of their age" makes more sense when they're actually producing. Right now all of those guys are actually ranked higher in rankings value than they're ranked in fantasy points scored. Their lack of production already dictates that their value should be lower.

For instance Mike Evans is WR17 in dynasty rankings and WR27 in PPG.

They've got to actually start producing again before we can worry about their production not matching their value, and as the aforementioned Dez/Demaryius/AJG showed us just because they produced before doesn't mean they'll be able to again in their late 20's.

Not that Golladay was ever that much of a producer to begin with. Dude has a CAREER HIGH of 15.5ppg which was good for WR14 in ppg in a down season at the position but wouldn't even crack the top 20 this year. And that's his CAREER HIGH. Yet he's still ranked WR15.

These guys have a lot of issues driving down their ranking beyond age.

[The MAC Machine]

He's not saying that any of Golladay/Evans/Landry belongs in the same tier as those guys you mentioned value-wise.

He was responding to the previous comment and saying that you can add these three to the MT/Adams/Hill/Nuk group of guys whose dynasty value will not be on par with their production because of their age.

This is currently the case with Julio. As you reach that 27/28 age, while arguably a peak in production for many WR's, dynasty value doesn't seem to align.

winner.

"Their value won't match their production because of their age" makes more sense when they're actually producing. Right now all of those guys are actually ranked higher in rankings value than they're ranked in fantasy points scored. Their lack of production already dictates that their value should be lower.

For instance Mike Evans is WR17 in dynasty rankings and WR27 in PPG.

They've got to actually start producing again before we can worry about their production not matching their value, and as the aforementioned Dez/Demaryius/AJG showed us just because they produced before doesn't mean they'll be able to again in their late 20's.

Not that Golladay was ever that much of a producer to begin with. Dude has a CAREER HIGH of 15.5ppg which was good for WR14 in ppg in a down season at the position but wouldn't even crack the top 20 this year. And that's his CAREER HIGH. Yet he's still ranked WR15.

These guys have a lot of issues driving down their ranking beyond age.

Which is exactly why I traded Golladay for Juju + +

[Mjvb5]

Just fwiw the big names in the top 12 wrs in 2014 off-season as that class is the closest comp we have to this one
1. Megatron
2. AJG
3.dez
4. Julio
5.DT
6. Alshon
7.cobb
8.allen
9. Marshall
10.Cpatt
11.AB
12 Gordon

So yeah the 2014 class replaced them really quickly as only Julio, Cobb, AB and Allen held significant value for the next several years. With most of them entering a free fall within 2 years(admittedly Patterson was a younger player, megatron retired and Gordon was Gordon). By the 2015 off-season obj, Evans, Watkins had moved in quickly followed by cooper.