Jacksonville backfield, who is the guy?

[The MAC Machine]

Every Robinson you trade for a 2nd gets you closer to the top of that mountain

I'd much rather flip a Robinson 3x and spike Marquis Brown than I would hoping Robinson panned out and I got that 1st for him. But maybe Robinson pans out 1 out of 3 times for a 1st? I doubt it though...but maybe. I don't think I want to go back and prove it. It could be this is a blind spot for me.


My odds/numbers I use to support my argument are the collective majority of people on this forum. It's definitely not fool proof but it's as close as I can get for now.

The other Robinson dilemma is how you may not get a chance to get any value for him. I mean, poof! All his value is gone with an ankle sprain. He fumbles on the first carry of the game. Bye! Misses a block in pass protection. See ya! Whereas 2nd rounder JJAW didn't do squat last year, they drafted another WR, kept Alshon and DJax, and you might still go get a 3rd for him. I mean you could crash and burn like Hakeem Butler as well...haha. But generally even after doing squat for a year, most pedigree guys can be resold for a loss at some point, not zero value on one play or injury.

I don't think I'm going to get a 2nd for Robinson btw so I hope you are right

Also, I’m a chess player so I tend to also weigh consequences and play the opposition instead of head on.

If I believe Robinson is going to be serviceable and I’m wrong, I lose at worst an opportunity at a 2nd round rookie pick (if even that)

If you believe Robinson is going to be a dud and you’re wrong, you could lose getting Marlon Mack, Devin Singletary, David Montgomery type contribution from a young unexpected source. That can go a long way...especially once injuries and bye weeks start kicking in.

I’d rather be an owner and lose a 2nd [in this case, not every case like this] than be a doubter and lose out on a player who vastly outperforms his ADP in comparison to other mid round, uninspiring players.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

I'd rather have that 2nd in my pocket and go buy one of those 10 guys listed in the other thread IF i needed one. And draft a Pittman or Aiyuck if I don't need them.

[jenkins.math]

I think you'll find it's harder to make those deals against sharp competition but you never know what someone else is thinking.

Your thought process to KNOW something is faulty. You can't know anything. Fantasy is always playing the odds. The reason it is fun of course is that we all have different ideas of what the odds are.

I think that you are grasping for too much certainty. In poker, if you make a 2-1 call on the river and win 6 out of 10 times, that's a fantastic result. But you will lose 4 times out of 10. In dynasty, that 2nd rounder is the 6 times. Robinson is the 4. I'm being generous with Robinson right now

Again, all this is just my opinion and that's what makes dynasty fun. You think Robinson is the 6 and the 2nd is the 4. It's what makes it fun and also hard to evaluate.

I’m not pricing Robinson at a 1st because I’m expecting to trade him. I’m pricing him that high to ensure I can win the deal in the event that he does do well. Nobody here is selling a rookie RB for what they have done, or based on their lowest potential....we are all selling rookie RBs for what we believe they could produce.


One time playing Hold em Poker here in Philly I flopped top set over bottom set at a casino here in Philadelphia... the gentlemen rivered the Quad and I lost $8-$900 on that pot. I’m not saying living on the quad was right, just like dying on top set isn’t wrong. But the only way he could even consider bailing on his set is if he believed I had the higher set. Right now you believe the 2nd round pick is the slam dunk higher set and and there are no numbers or odds to support that the pick is that strong. Its just a belief. And if you were wrong...boy it would hurt. I would rather die on a molehill than at the foot of a mountain.

I’m enjoying this actually. I miss these forums.

So then what do you believe Robinson could produce? And for how long?

It seems like you're only willing to trade if you bend the other person over in a deal which is going to make it really hard for you to better your team via trades if you play in a league with seasoned and intelligent players.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

Do you know what I would bet on? I"ll bet neither of us changes our mind by whatever the other posts next.

[The MAC Machine]

I'd rather have that 2nd in my pocket and go buy one of those 10 guys listed in the other thread IF i needed one. And draft a Pittman or Aiyuck if I don't need them.

If I knew I could get a player like Marlon Mack or Devin Singletary for a 2nd I would absolutely trade Robinson for a 2nd. But that’s my point...in a sharper league I don’t personally think a 2nd is going to realistically net young, established, productive players. Maybe older players at the end of their rope like Ingram or Latavius. But not Michel or Montgomery. But that’s also because of my outlook on rookies picks. But my position on trading Robinson is more in the security of the returning asset. I wouldn’t trade for something unsecured unless I was confident enough it’s value would net me better.

[The MAC Machine]

I'd rather have that 2nd in my pocket and go buy one of those 10 guys listed in the other thread IF i needed one. And draft a Pittman or Aiyuck if I don't need them.

I do like Pittmans outlook. Not Aiyuk.

[jman3134]

The answer is Laviska Shenault. He won't be the top ball carrier obvs, but they should deploy him in jet sweeps all year. Too physical not to utilize him properly.

[CGW]

The answer is Laviska Shenault. He won't be the top ball carrier obvs, but they should deploy him in jet sweeps all year. Too physical not to utilize him properly.

Answer for which question? 2-3 wrinkle plays a game doesn't make me covet him as "the guy" in the Jacksonville backfield.

[jman3134]

I'm saying there is no 'guy' and Shenault should be used more than 2-3 times in the run game. As I mention, he will not be the top ball carrier obviously.

[The MAC Machine]

Thank you all for making this thread the place to be

[Yarnith]

I think a 3rd is more than fair price for Robinson right now unseen. If he bombs week 1 the bottom falls out if he is adequate and puts up RB2 numbers then its a 2. Unless he is simply dominate with his touches he is a sell piece. If you are weak rostered I understand holding him because you need that win now. I am usually competitive personally so I love to turn questionable players into draft picks. I consider it a way to transition value past roster cuts. So on my current roster moving Robinson means I can keep a Ruggs or Mims etc and still gain value for the future. The Patriots do this type of thing regularly, teams reliably overpay for players the pats system make look better than they are. Just my view.

[The MAC Machine]

I am usually competitive personally so I love to turn questionable players into draft picks. I consider it a way to transition value past roster cuts. So on my current roster moving Robinson means I can keep a Ruggs or Mims etc and still gain value for the future. The Patriots do this type of thing regularly, teams reliably overpay for players the pats system make look better than they are. Just my view.

You know that’s the one thing that’s been jading me throughout the convo. Roster size. In my main SUPERFLEX league below we start 12 and we have 24 bench and 4 taxi squad. So it doesn’t cost me anything to keep James Robinson on my bench or taxi squad, so long as I believe he is a top 480 player.

I think that’s a clear distinction between me and many, I prefer to turn questionable players into other more secure players or players with better opportunity...for example I traded KJ Hamler and a 3rd for MVS. So you can see how little I value picks just by that trade. But I also think I prey upon people who blindly value picks over unrealized potential. I personally think that can be a mistake if you don’t pay close attention.

I wouldn’t trade KJ Hamler and James Robinson for MVS.

[esloan35]

I’ll make this easy. Offer me a 2nd and you can have Robinson. Thank you.

[esloan35]

Thank you all for making this thread the place to be

[The MAC Machine]

I’ll make this easy. Offer me a 2nd and you can have Robinson. Thank you.

I wouldn’t offer you a 2nd for him. I’d offer you a 3rd or a 4th and force your hand.

I also wouldn’t take a 2nd for him, unless I knew I could use that to retrieve a RB like a young, established, average, productive RB like Singletary, Montgomery, Mack, etc...Otherwise, I would shoot for a 1st or hold. That’s where Ive landed