We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Unsure where I’m at with Pittman. I really like him but his price point has steadily risen to where I’m getting less and less excited.

Took him at 2.06 in sig league in a pretty early draft, and actually felt like maybe even a slight reach at the time. Ended up dealing him not too long after:

Gave Pittman, future 2nd and 5th
Got Kirk, future 1st

Another league I failed to move up to grab him, tag was just too high.

One thing that concerns me too, and has led me to deal Paris Campbell for decent value in another league also: who’s the QB of the future there?

My main reservation is his breakout age. The QB question isn't a huge worry for me though. Not an Indy fan at all but the Colts are a competent, well run organization. No doubt in my mind they'll figure something out when the time comes

I feel like I'm a lot lower on breakout age as a big factor than most nowadays. I understand the logic, that good players tend to be good right away. But it's also not inconceivable that other players simply take more time to grow into the role. It's not like it's never been done before, there are plenty of success stories.

Breakout Age / Name
22.6 Chad Johnson
22.6 Kelvin Benjamin
22.0 Greg Jennings
21.8 Victor Cruz
21.5 Brandon Marshall
21.5 Michael Thomas
21.5 Santonio Holmes
21.4 John Brown
21.1 Plaxico Burress
21.1 Stevie Johnson
21.0 Dwayne Bowe
20.9 Michael Pittman Jr.
20.8 Brian Hartline
20.8 Dionte Johnson - the guy people think is better than juju
20.8 Roddy White
20.7 Calvin Ridley
20.6 Deebo Samuel
20.6 Randy Moss
20.6 Vincent Jackson
20.5 Eric Decker
20.5 Michael Gallup

[Cameron Giles]

Vincent Jackson actually isn't a bad comp.

Don't agree with the rest of it for the most--maybe his floor being higher than Lamb's I can see or a good rookie season and 3.02 being nice value.

The rest though...

Mike Evans is a totally different type of player

Agreed.

Athletically, I don't think mentioning Pittman with Evans or Jackson is disrespectful, but Evans was a completely different animal when it came to production in college. Oddly enough though, Chris Ballard compared Pittman to V-Jack after the draft.

I think V-Jack is an attainable result for Pittman. I do not think he's Evans though. At some point, Evans needs to get his flowers. He's an absolute freak of nature, has six straight 1,000+ yard seasons, and will likely have a solid case to go into the HOF if he keeps up this rate of production.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I don't understand the mentality that prompts people to look at data that says "80% of people with Trait X will fail" and then immediately respond "Who cares about Trait X, sometimes guys have Trait X and succeed!" What do you think 80% means? Do... do you think it means 100%? Posting the exceptions to a trend does not invalidate the trend. It's akin to saying:

"I feel like I'm a lot lower than most on hitting on 12 when the dealer has a 3 showing these days. I understand the logic, that there are more cards that can help me at 12 than hurt me, and that a dealer 3 isn't as weak of a hand as when they're showing a 4, 5, or 6, but sometimes I bust if I hit on 12 so I think that completely invalidates the math."

Your thoughts don't invalidate data. There's a nuanced discussion to have on breakout age, and why a specific player's late breakout isn't as concerning to you as it may be to others- maybe he redshirted, transferred, got suspended, got injured, etc. Maybe he was boxed out by NFL talent as a freshman and sophomore, and now has a really strong draft profile outside of breakout age. But this whole "sometimes the trend isn't right, so I don't believe in the trend" ain't it, chief.

20.8 Dionte Johnson - the guy people think is better than juju

I haven't seen a single website, ADP source, mock draft source, or even a single trade that shows that anybody values Diontae Johnson over JuJu Smith-Schuster, so I have to assume that the "people" who think Johnson is better than JuJu are... you.

[FantasyFreak]

I don't understand the mentality that prompts people to look at data that says "80% of people with Trait X will fail" and then immediately respond "Who cares about Trait X, sometimes guys have Trait X and succeed!" What do you think 80% means? Do... do you think it means 100%? Posting the exceptions to a trend does not invalidate the trend. It's akin to saying:

"I feel like I'm a lot lower than most on hitting on 12 when the dealer has a 3 showing these days. I understand the logic, that there are more cards that can help me at 12 than hurt me, and that a dealer 3 isn't as weak of a hand as when they're showing a 4, 5, or 6, but sometimes I bust if I hit on 12 so I think that completely invalidates the math."

Your thoughts don't invalidate data. There's a nuanced discussion to have on breakout age, and why a specific player's late breakout isn't as concerning to you as it may be to others- maybe he redshirted, transferred, got suspended, got injured, etc. Maybe he was boxed out by NFL talent as a freshman and sophomore, and now has a really strong draft profile outside of breakout age. But this whole "sometimes the trend isn't right, so I don't believe in the trend" ain't it, chief.

20.8 Dionte Johnson - the guy people think is better than juju

I haven't seen a single website, ADP source, mock draft source, or even a single trade that shows that anybody values Diontae Johnson over JuJu Smith-Schuster, so I have to assume that the "people" who think Johnson is better than JuJu are... you.

Not just him. To me, it's mostly wishful Johnson owners, drinking the Kool Aid they made themselves.

[StripesOfKC]

I don't understand the mentality that prompts people to look at data that says "80% of people with Trait X will fail" and then immediately respond "Who cares about Trait X, sometimes guys have Trait X and succeed!" What do you think 80% means? Do... do you think it means 100%? Posting the exceptions to a trend does not invalidate the trend. It's akin to saying:

"I feel like I'm a lot lower than most on hitting on 12 when the dealer has a 3 showing these days. I understand the logic, that there are more cards that can help me at 12 than hurt me, and that a dealer 3 isn't as weak of a hand as when they're showing a 4, 5, or 6, but sometimes I bust if I hit on 12 so I think that completely invalidates the math."

Your thoughts don't invalidate data. There's a nuanced discussion to have on breakout age, and why a specific player's late breakout isn't as concerning to you as it may be to others- maybe he redshirted, transferred, got suspended, got injured, etc. Maybe he was boxed out by NFL talent as a freshman and sophomore, and now has a really strong draft profile outside of breakout age. But this whole "sometimes the trend isn't right, so I don't believe in the trend" ain't it, chief.

20.8 Dionte Johnson - the guy people think is better than juju

I haven't seen a single website, ADP source, mock draft source, or even a single trade that shows that anybody values Diontae Johnson over JuJu Smith-Schuster, so I have to assume that the "people" who think Johnson is better than JuJu are... you.

Not just him. To me, it's mostly wishful Johnson owners, drinking the Kool Aid they made themselves.

And people who warched Juju play last year when he had no AB and have processed just how truly awful he was

Not even that high on Johnson. Picked him up off waivers last preseason and would probably take an early 2nd for him—likely even a mid 2nd, but wouldn’t be surprised if he outperforms Mr. “WR61 in half PPR on ppg” this year, and still neither are actually decent fantasy options.

Anyways back to the topic. Breakout age is heralded for a reason. It and draft capital are the most predictive tools.

With that said, that doesn’t mean you can’t see something on tape or from watching the player that makes them DND to you even while having a freshman breakout and high round capital. That’s Reagor for me this year and it was Harry and DK last year (so mixed results)

Conversely there can be reasonable explanations for many prospects on why they didn’t immediately produce.
For me though considering the overall sample those reasons have to be good, especially for 21 year old breakouts (20 year old breakouts have a bit better hit rate).

Admittedly for a small school guy I usually have a hard time using high capital for a late breakout, and same for guys who broke out late and are still raw projects.

Pittman falls into neither of these categories: he played in a crowded WR room at a school with a lot of talent at the position and is pretty polished, so I was willing to take a shot. But the breakout age question does still linger

[honcho55]

@DynastyDelorean and Cruel Ranter:

I definitely get what both of you are saying. I think it’s valid to try to look for those outliers to the late breakout rule, but I get what Rant is saying about the logic of it.

My take on all of that is, it’s kind of baked into his valuation already. Everyone paying attention knows how predictive BA is for WR. On the flip side, what’s the hit rate of WRs with Pittmans speed score and draft position? (90 something percentile, and super early 2nd).

On Juju: I maintain juju was much much more derailed by not having Ben, as compared to having AB

[OhCruelestRanter]

@DynastyDelorean and Cruel Ranter:

I definitely get what both of you are saying. I think it’s valid to try to look for those outliers to the late breakout rule, but I get what Rant is saying about the logic of it.

My take on all of that is, it’s kind of baked into his valuation already. Everyone paying attention knows how predictive BA is for WR. On the flip side, what’s the hit rate of WRs with Pittmans speed score and draft position? (90 something percentile, and super early 2nd).

On Juju: I maintain juju was much much more derailed by not having Ben, as compared to having AB

Yeah, this is the nuance I was taking about. Pittman has good draft capital and good size adjusted athleticism, things I’ve said multiple times in this thread. He also earned a good chunk of the passing game work despite playing with an NFL receiver in St. Brown. His profile has good and bad features. (The bad being that he’s a senior and he broke out late.) Personally I think it will come down to how he’s deployed. I think he could be great as a big slot, but I think he’ll struggle as a true X, which is how Indy has talked about using him. We’ll know more closer to camp.

That’s a much smarter way to address it than “I like Pittman, so I now distrust the breakout age data.”

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Not just him. To me, it's mostly wishful Johnson owners, drinking the Kool Aid they made themselves.

I never said that I thought Dionte was better than Juju and I never said that the consensus breakout age data was invalid.
Don't feed the troll.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Not just him. To me, it's mostly wishful Johnson owners, drinking the Kool Aid they made themselves.

I never said that I thought Dionte was better than Juju and I never said that the consensus breakout age data was invalid.
Don't feed the troll.

Like clockwork- present this dude with a logical criticism of what he said, and he will 100% fail to refute it and just start name-calling. You could set your metaphorical watch by it.

[ericanadian]

Unsure where I’m at with Pittman. I really like him but his price point has steadily risen to where I’m getting less and less excited.

Took him at 2.06 in sig league in a pretty early draft, and actually felt like maybe even a slight reach at the time. Ended up dealing him not too long after:

Gave Pittman, future 2nd and 5th
Got Kirk, future 1st

Another league I failed to move up to grab him, tag was just too high.

One thing that concerns me too, and has led me to deal Paris Campbell for decent value in another league also: who’s the QB of the future there?

My main reservation is his breakout age. The QB question isn't a huge worry for me though. Not an Indy fan at all but the Colts are a competent, well run organization. No doubt in my mind they'll figure something out when the time comes

I feel like I'm a lot lower on breakout age as a big factor than most nowadays. I understand the logic, that good players tend to be good right away. But it's also not inconceivable that other players simply take more time to grow into the role. It's not like it's never been done before, there are plenty of success stories.

Breakout Age / Name
22.6 Chad Johnson
22.6 Kelvin Benjamin
22.0 Greg Jennings
21.8 Victor Cruz
21.5 Brandon Marshall
21.5 Michael Thomas
21.5 Santonio Holmes
21.4 John Brown
21.1 Plaxico Burress
21.1 Stevie Johnson
21.0 Dwayne Bowe
20.9 Michael Pittman Jr.
20.8 Brian Hartline
20.8 Dionte Johnson - the guy people think is better than juju
20.8 Roddy White
20.7 Calvin Ridley
20.6 Deebo Samuel
20.6 Randy Moss
20.6 Vincent Jackson
20.5 Eric Decker
20.5 Michael Gallup

Greg Jennings breakout age is an error in PlayerProfiler. It should be 20 y.o.
Dwayne Bowe is also an error and should also be 20 y.o.
Santonio Holmes is also an error and should be 19.5 y.o.
Steve Johnson, Chad Johnson & John Brown were Juco transfers.

Kelvin Benjamin graduated high school at 20 y.o. Broke out his sophomore year in college.
Plaxico Burress seemingly graduated high school at 19 y.o. and did a year in a military academy after that. Broke out first year in college.
Brandon Marshall played DB for seven games as a junior due to injuries to the unit, then broke out his senior year.
Michael Thomas was inexplicably redshirted as a sophomore., then broke out as an old junior.
Victor Cruz was kicked out of school twice for poor grades, so couldn't get on the field.

I would generally want to see extenuating circumstances for anyone with a breakout age of 21+. Aiyuk seems to clear that hurdle. I'm not touching Duvernay or Van Jefferson though.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I own zero Van Jefferson, but he at least was stuck with AJB and DK Metcalf at Ole Miss before he transferred to Florida and broke out as an old junior.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

My main reservation is his breakout age. The QB question isn't a huge worry for me though. Not an Indy fan at all but the Colts are a competent, well run organization. No doubt in my mind they'll figure something out when the time comes

I feel like I'm a lot lower on breakout age as a big factor than most nowadays. I understand the logic, that good players tend to be good right away. But it's also not inconceivable that other players simply take more time to grow into the role. It's not like it's never been done before, there are plenty of success stories.

Breakout Age / Name
22.6 Chad Johnson
22.6 Kelvin Benjamin
22.0 Greg Jennings
21.8 Victor Cruz
21.5 Brandon Marshall
21.5 Michael Thomas
21.5 Santonio Holmes
21.4 John Brown
21.1 Plaxico Burress
21.1 Stevie Johnson
21.0 Dwayne Bowe
20.9 Michael Pittman Jr.
20.8 Brian Hartline
20.8 Dionte Johnson - the guy people think is better than juju
20.8 Roddy White
20.7 Calvin Ridley
20.6 Deebo Samuel
20.6 Randy Moss
20.6 Vincent Jackson
20.5 Eric Decker
20.5 Michael Gallup

Greg Jennings breakout age is an error in PlayerProfiler. It should be 20 y.o.
Dwayne Bowe is also an error and should also be 20 y.o.
Santonio Holmes is also an error and should be 19.5 y.o.
Steve Johnson, Chad Johnson & John Brown were Juco transfers.

Kelvin Benjamin graduated high school at 20 y.o. Broke out his sophomore year in college.
Plaxico Burress seemingly graduated high school at 19 y.o. and did a year in a military academy after that. Broke out first year in college.
Brandon Marshall played DB for seven games as a junior due to injuries to the unit, then broke out his senior year.
Michael Thomas was inexplicably redshirted as a sophomore., then broke out as an old junior.
Victor Cruz was kicked out of school twice for poor grades, so couldn't get on the field.

I would generally want to see extenuating circumstances for anyone with a breakout age of 21+. Aiyuk seems to clear that hurdle. I'm not touching Duvernay or Van Jefferson though.

Thanks, I was hoping someone would check all those. I figured at least some were incorrect. Why there isn't a database with all or even mostly correct data is maddening. I was looking up something on combineresults.com the other day and saw multiple errors from just this past draft class.

I assume you would also be very wary of Claypool then as well?

[AkaliWarrior]

Vincent Jackson actually isn't a bad comp.

Don't agree with the rest of it for the most--maybe his floor being higher than Lamb's I can see or a good rookie season and 3.02 being nice value.

The rest though...

Mike Evans is a totally different type of player

Agreed.

Athletically, I don't think mentioning Pittman with Evans or Jackson is disrespectful, but Evans was a completely different animal when it came to production in college. Oddly enough though, Chris Ballard compared Pittman to V-Jack after the draft.

I think V-Jack is an attainable result for Pittman. I do not think he's Evans though. At some point, Evans needs to get his flowers. He's an absolute freak of nature, has six straight 1,000+ yard seasons, and will likely have a solid case to go into the HOF if he keeps up this rate of production.

I'll have everyone know that Greg Cosell compared Pittman to Mike Evans pre-draft. I also have a solid pic of an Evans vs. Pittman comparison, but am having trouble uploading it, as it says file size is too large.

Cos Pit.png (96.41 KiB) Viewed 610 times

[AkaliWarrior]

Here's the link to the Pittman v Evans comparisons.

https://twitter.com/h12lukeNFL/status/1 ... 43077?s=20

Again, I'm not saying that Pittman is going to be Mike Evans, but their measurables and playstyle are very similar/relatable.

[Blueboy]

Pittman is my WR1. I have him in literally all of my rookie drafts, which is about 8 of them. I got him as late at 3.02 in the earlier drafts. I had to take him at 1.13 in my most recent. Average is around the middle of the 2nd. In one draft I had the 1.05, traded down to pick up a late 1st and a mid 2nd. Took Chase Young with the last 1st and Pittman with the mid 2nd. The dude took Jeudy at 1.05. Couldn't be happier.

Props to you my man.

Just going to throw this out there: there are a lot of really good WR prospects in this draft class. Maybe you're the one sleeping on the other Wrs?

I can see why this lone thread might make it seem that way, but I'm also very high on a lot of this class. Just like I did in '19, or even moreso due to better depth, I'm looking at this class as one that can remake my teams entire WR corps. My sig should be pretty indicative of how much I like other WRs here, I just like Pittman as being on the fringe of the top tier, where many have him in the lower end of the second tier.