Value of Top QB?

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Re: Value of Top QB?

Postby jordanzs » Mon Jul 05, 2010 1:13 pm

Here's a couple of startup drafts that I did in May & June. I'm just showing the top 25 players from 2009.

The 1st league,QB scoring is pretty normal & in line with most other leagues that I've seen & been involved in:

1. 1. Johnson, Chris TEN RB 471.9 29.49 10.8 64.4 17.5 14.4 6.3 18.8 B 46.9 37.0 56.2 21.1 30.6 20.1 45.6 19.9 32.9 29.4 D'oh-Nutts - Trade 7
2. 2. Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 457.5 28.59 19.9 21.4 40.3 29.8 B 27.8 32.6 37.6 29.9 21.0 29.5 34.9 29.2 10.4 48.4 19.8 25.0 Ragin' Cajuns - Trade 5
3. 3. Schaub, Matt HOU QB 392.0 24.50 7.9 40.3 26.5 23.1 26.1 37.5 28.1 15.1 22.7 B 26.3 19.8 17.1 28.1 27.1 24.0 22.3 D'oh-Nutts - Trade 10
4. 4. Brees, Drew NOS QB 387.6 25.84 43.9 26.5 8.4 10.0 B 38.1 30.2 21.7 27.9 17.2 21.4 44.5 34.0 29.6 17.3 16.9 The Wounded Ducks 5
5. 5. Romo, Tony DAL QB 383.2 23.95 41.9 13.7 15.0 13.8 31.1 B 33.7 24.8 24.1 19.2 11.3 32.4 31.6 20.4 24.7 20.2 25.3 Donnie Brasco - Trade 6
6. 6. Favre, Brett MIN QB 373.9 23.37 9.5 15.8 22.2 28.4 18.4 31.9 14.6 34.2 B 33.1 26.7 31.6 19.8 13.4 13.2 23.1 38.0 Speedkills - Trade (Q) 9
7. 7. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 369.5 23.09 41.8 26.6 14.9 11.5 21.5 26.6 22.9 30.1 B 35.3 13.8 17.3 12.5 28.7 22.8 27.7 15.5 Bernie's Mad Bombers - Trade 9
8. 8. Rice, Ray BAL RB 369.1 23.07 17.0 13.2 17.5 23.2 33.3 50.4 B 21.8 27.5 19.4 20.5 23.5 12.1 36.9 21.4 15.5 15.9 Speedkills - Trade 7
9. 9. Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB 367.8 24.52 20.5 20.7 29.1 25.0 27.6 37.0 18.9 B 21.4 9.3 33.3 24.6 11.1 43.9 18.7 26.7 Tiger's Ho Train - Trade (O) 8
10. 10. Brady, Tom NEP QB 366.6 22.91 26.8 10.0 17.9 23.0 17.7 49.0 28.9 B 26.1 36.1 23.4 13.1 32.6 12.4 8.5 29.8 11.3 I Touchdown There - Trade 8
11. 11. Manning, Peyton IND QB 364.2 22.76 17.7 32.5 39.9 24.6 26.5 B 23.7 20.4 19.1 30.4 19.9 22.0 17.3 23.7 33.1 9.6 3.8 THE NIGHT MAN COMETH - Trade (P) 6
12. 12. Rivers, Philip SDC QB 360.1 22.51 15.5 34.8 26.7 23.8 B 16.8 36.2 18.3 22.0 19.5 11.3 27.3 35.7 16.7 25.4 21.1 9.0 Boltfan - Trade 5
13. 13. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 348.5 21.78 26.3 15.3 39.7 13.0 10.7 42.8 B 36.3 22.4 25.5 18.4 16.0 9.2 16.3 31.0 12.8 12.8 THE NIGHT MAN COMETH - Trade 7
14. 14. Johnson, Andre HOU WR 342.9 21.43 7.5 39.9 12.6 11.6 30.1 24.5 11.2 15.3 20.3 B 20.8 11.7 25.9 45.6 34.6 18.1 13.2 The Wounded Ducks 10
15. 15. McNabb, Donovan PHI QB 340.1 24.29 19.7 B 34.2 20.3 14.3 28.5 16.4 32.5 22.7 21.8 23.6 30.3 29.8 35.0 11.0 Ragin' Cajuns - Trade 4
16. 16. Manning, Eli NYG QB 329.9 20.62 14.5 27.7 17.0 30.6 22.7 13.8 16.1 16.5 18.8 B 33.2 9.8 21.9 37.4 28.4 16.4 5.1 Speedkills - Trade 10
17. 17. Gore, Frank SFO RB 316.6 22.61 19.8 47.6 0.4 B 6.7 27.4 28.8 28.5 18.8 17.7 10.2 34.7 18.6 27.2 30.2 The Black Plague - Trade 6
18. 18. Cutler, Jay CHI QB 315.1 19.69 18.5 19.6 25.3 21.9 B 30.4 14.0 13.5 34.2 10.6 15.7 11.0 17.0 16.4 4.0 29.7 33.3 Tiger's Ho Train - Trade 5
19. 19. Moss, Randy NEP WR 310.4 19.40 26.1 6.4 21.6 14.0 4.6 41.9 11.9 B 32.7 44.9 14.4 12.7 17.6 1.6 18.0 26.5 15.5 The Wounded Ducks 8
20. 20. Campbell, Jason WAS QB 302.9 18.93 14.2 14.9 32.1 17.5 11.7 4.1 21.0 B 19.8 15.2 11.8 23.8 35.3 24.1 21.2 10.3 25.9 THE NIGHT MAN COMETH - Trade 8
21. 21. Austin, Miles DAL WR 302.8 18.92 14.2 3.0 0.0 4.9 53.0 B 38.1 18.2 14.9 6.0 8.7 30.5 26.4 19.1 29.9 16.9 19.0 Bernie's Mad Bombers - Trade 6
22. 22. Jackson, DeSean PHI WR 300.4 20.03 15.2 24.6 32.9 B 1.1 18.4 33.6 19.8 4.9 17.1 27.7 12.1 41.8 29.9 13.0 8.3 Tiger's Ho Train - Trade 4
23. 23. Garrard, David JAC QB 296.6 18.54 7.5 22.8 22.6 31.0 7.5 20.9 B 7.2 26.1 21.2 17.4 14.4 27.2 12.6 22.8 14.3 21.1 The Wounded Ducks 7
24. 24. Orton, Kyle DEN QB 294.8 18.42 19.5 20.2 11.8 23.2 23.5 23.6 B 8.7 8.1 24.0 7.6 15.2 17.0 22.0 22.0 21.2 27.2 Boltfan - Trade 7
25. 25. Welker, Wes NEP WR 294.4 21.03 21.3 10.8 22.6 40.0 27.3 B 17.4 18.4 38.3 10.6 29.7 20.5 8.5 26.8 2.2 I Touchdown There - Trade (Q) 8



And here's a league where QB scoring is weak in relation to WRs & TEs:

1. 1. Johnson, Chris TEN RB 396.0 26.40 7.3 55.9 11.0 10.9 5.3 17.8 B 41.9 34.5 44.7 20.1 31.1 22.1 43.1 19.9 30.4 The Show - Trade 7
2. 2. Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 337.7 22.51 13.8 18.0 28.7 23.4 B 21.8 25.5 29.7 21.4 18.8 25.7 28.1 22.7 5.4 40.9 13.8 Hot Shots - Trade 5
3. 3. Johnson, Andre HOU WR 319.7 21.31 7.5 39.9 12.6 8.6 33.1 24.5 8.2 14.3 23.3 B 17.8 11.7 22.9 45.6 31.6 18.1 NOT ELVERSON - Trade 10
4. 4. Brees, Drew NOS QB 317.6 21.17 42.9 26.2 4.5 6.8 B 35.9 19.2 19.5 15.4 13.4 21.2 40.2 24.9 24.6 9.3 13.6 The Rastafarians - Trade 5
5. 5. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 312.7 20.85 20.8 10.3 39.7 11.5 8.2 41.3 B 34.8 20.9 26.5 16.4 13.5 8.7 15.3 33.5 11.3 Bologna Ponies - Trade 7
6. 6. Manning, Peyton IND QB 307.1 20.47 15.6 23.4 33.5 22.6 26.3 B 22.7 14.5 16.8 29.9 10.8 18.9 13.8 21.0 30.9 6.4 NOT ELVERSON - Trade (P) 6
7. 7. Rice, Ray BAL RB 304.2 20.28 18.0 10.7 15.5 22.7 23.8 41.4 B 19.3 23.5 17.9 17.0 23.0 6.6 32.9 12.9 19.0 Wounded Ducks 7
8. 8. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 303.0 20.20 43.3 17.6 10.9 10.0 20.5 23.6 20.9 20.6 B 28.3 11.8 15.3 9.5 27.2 18.3 25.2 Jokers Folly - Trade 9
9. 9. Welker, Wes NEP WR 301.2 23.17 21.3 10.8 22.6 40.0 30.3 B 17.4 18.4 38.3 10.6 29.7 23.5 8.5 29.8 The Show - Trade (Q) 8
10. 10. Wayne, Reggie IND WR 292.3 19.49 35.2 6.7 28.6 19.4 18.0 B 21.3 35.7 12.4 37.6 15.9 10.9 8.8 8.3 27.2 6.3 The Rastafarians - Trade 6
11. 11. Moss, Randy NEP WR 289.9 19.33 29.1 6.4 24.6 14.0 4.6 41.9 11.9 B 31.7 41.9 14.4 9.7 14.6 0.6 18.0 26.5 Bologna Ponies - Trade 8
12. 12. Marshall, Brandon DEN WR 285.9 19.06 6.7 7.8 18.2 19.1 27.0 9.9 B 6.4 25.2 34.3 5.6 14.6 22.6 56.0 20.3 12.2 Bologna Ponies - Trade (P) 7
13. 13. Brady, Tom NEP QB 285.4 19.03 24.5 5.4 14.2 18.7 15.0 45.6 24.7 B 19.5 28.8 19.2 4.1 20.7 9.2 6.5 29.3 The Professor - Trade 8
14. 14. Schaub, Matt HOU QB 283.3 18.89 4.1 35.3 26.5 10.3 23.8 33.9 19.7 7.6 16.4 B 23.1 14.0 10.6 22.9 17.9 17.2 Wounded Ducks 10
15. 15. Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 282.5 18.83 19.1 13.4 14.6 B 24.9 32.0 14.3 12.6 36.3 20.3 22.7 7.4 31.3 4.2 13.6 15.8 Three Seashells - Trade 4
16. 16. Austin, Miles DAL WR 277.8 18.52 11.2 3.0 0.0 4.9 50.0 B 38.1 18.2 11.9 6.0 8.7 30.5 29.4 19.1 29.9 16.9 Wounded Ducks 6
17. 17. Rivers, Philip SDC QB 275.0 18.33 11.3 24.5 17.6 21.5 B 12.2 25.7 11.1 19.4 17.6 9.8 23.9 25.4 12.1 24.2 18.7 Bologna Ponies - Trade 5
18. 18. Romo, Tony DAL QB 272.4 18.16 29.9 9.5 10.7 4.5 23.2 B 31.4 22.5 15.9 10.9 8.6 23.2 31.0 18.2 20.5 12.4 Jokers Folly - Trade 6
19. 19. Favre, Brett MIN QB 271.2 18.08 8.6 15.1 21.1 23.8 10.5 24.2 10.0 28.1 B 19.3 27.1 31.0 15.1 10.2 5.4 21.7 Big ol' TDs - Trade (Q) 9
20. 20. Jackson, DeSean PHI WR 270.1 19.29 12.2 24.6 29.9 B 1.1 15.4 27.6 16.8 4.9 17.1 26.7 12.1 38.8 29.9 13.0 Hot Shots - Trade 4
21. 21. Clark, Dallas IND TE 269.5 17.97 7.9 36.3 19.9 16.0 16.7 B 13.4 17.9 31.3 10.5 7.3 21.3 5.5 27.3 28.5 9.7 Purple People Eaters - Trade 6
22. 22. Smith, Steve NYG WR 264.3 17.62 14.0 32.4 19.3 39.4 10.0 8.4 10.9 14.8 19.7 B 11.9 14.1 20.0 14.4 15.0 20.0 Purple People Eaters - Trade 10
23. 23. White, Roddy ATL WR 259.9 17.33 9.2 17.3 6.4 B 44.0 15.6 17.0 23.8 5.9 16.8 8.5 16.7 28.4 6.1 7.3 36.9 Purple People Eaters - Trade 4
24. 24. Jackson, Vincent SDC WR 257.8 17.19 16.6 29.1 20.0 9.6 B 14.6 28.2 27.3 22.4 2.0 9.6 5.9 7.4 22.0 30.8 12.3 The Professor - Trade 5
25. 25. Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB 256.7 18.34 16.4 16.9 18.5 24.4 21.9 24.0 10.9 B 18.4 5.4 27.6 17.9 7.7 35.4 11.3 Hot Shots - Trade (O) 8


In the 2nd league, look how many WRs outscore, let's say Brett Favre. In the 1st league, none did.

So the reasoning behind the big shift is that in league #2, QBs get 5 points per TD (instead of the standard 4) BUT they only get 1 point per 30 yards passing.

That drops their PPG scores down a bunch.

So draft-wise, in league #2, I would (and did) wait much longer to select a QB. If WRs are the top scorers, and you can start 4 of them, you will win the league by having 3 or 4 of those top 25 receivers in your lineup. Big deal if the other team has Brees, if you got 3 WRs who outscore him. Unless he's got an equally good crop of WRs.

But, in that 2nd league, other owners figured out the scoring too. Romo went in the 6th round, which is INSANE value! I got Schaub a few picks afterwards, which I also think is great value!

In Lemmi's league, QB scoring is also devalued, however, Romo went in the 1st round.

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Re: Value of Top QB?

Postby jordanzs » Mon Jul 05, 2010 1:24 pm

And back to the original question,

In a league that only allows 2RBs & 3WRs to be played, I would probably grab Rivers or Vernon Davis. Do you think you could get Celek or Finley on the wrap back?

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Re: Value of Top QB?

Postby skip » Mon Jul 05, 2010 1:39 pm

lemmi wrote: How is the difference in 6 - 4 pts per TD irrelevant to the draft position of QB's?
You can't look at total point across positions, but within the position itself. 30 TDs pretty much puts a player up in the elite class of QBs. 20 is pretty average. That's 20 points over the course of the season, or a little more than 1 ppg. Pretty irrelevant in the scheme of things. So whether the league counts 4 or 6 points per passing TD really doesn't matter because it doesn't reflect any significant difference in QBs as a whole. Thus, the value of an elite QB isn't any more in a 6 pts league than it is in a 4 pts league.
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Re: Value of Top QB?

Postby lemmi » Mon Jul 05, 2010 2:25 pm

skip wrote:
lemmi wrote: How is the difference in 6 - 4 pts per TD irrelevant to the draft position of QB's?
You can't look at total point across positions, but within the position itself. 30 TDs pretty much puts a player up in the elite class of QBs. 20 is pretty average. That's 20 points over the course of the season, or a little more than 1 ppg. Pretty irrelevant in the scheme of things. So whether the league counts 4 or 6 points per passing TD really doesn't matter because it doesn't reflect any significant difference in QBs as a whole. Thus, the value of an elite QB isn't any more in a 6 pts league than it is in a 4 pts league.
How can you do that if you're saying that you draft based on VBD?
That's the whole basis of VBD/AVT.
The value at the pick, regardless of position, based on YOUR leagues scoring.

Just look at the league reference I gave and the one jordanzs gave.
You can't tell me that QB's are valued the same regardless.
They're absolutely devalued. Rodgers, Brees and Romo went in the first round of my draft and these guys passed on the likes of Calvin, Brandon Marshall etc.
It sets back their team. All 3 teams that took QB's will struggle because they won't have enough top shelf talent at the other starting positions.

Which starting linuep would you rather put out there in ppr with 4pt pass TD's and 6 pts for all others.

Big Ben(after week 5 :wink: )/Mendy/McCoy/Calvin/Crabs/Maclin
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Rodgers/Forte/Jacobs/Wayne/SS 2.0/Ward
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Re: Value of Top QB?

Postby skip » Mon Jul 05, 2010 5:58 pm

lemmi wrote: How can you do that if you're saying that you draft based on VBD?
That's the whole basis of VBD/AVT.
The value at the pick, regardless of position, based on YOUR leagues scoring.
VBD is position specific, unless you are using a completely different concept of it than I am. You evaluate the value within each position to then determine the best player at a given pick. Thus you look at the value of the current top available QB to a QB that is X far down from there as the formula determines. Do the same for each position and it will yield whether you should draft the QB, RB, WR, etc... As players go off the board, the margin shrinks within each position thus positions which have had fewer players drafted will begin presenting greater and great value. I'd consider Rivers in the 5th rd - who people rank in the top 3 or 4 for dynasty purposes - great value relative to someone who ranks in the lower teens at RB.
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Re: Value of Top QB?

Postby skip » Mon Jul 05, 2010 6:01 pm

lemmi wrote: They're absolutely devalued. Rodgers, Brees and Romo went in the first round of my draft and these guys passed on the likes of Calvin, Brandon Marshall etc.
It sets back their team. All 3 teams that took QB's will struggle because they won't have enough top shelf talent at the other starting positions.
You're talking 1st rd vs 5th rd. The RBs and WRs present better value than any QB you are drafting in the 1st. In the 5th, the QBs are going to present better value than the RBs and WRs who will change minimally in value from one to the next over the next couple of rounds.
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Re: Value of Top QB?

Postby lemmi » Mon Jul 05, 2010 6:29 pm

skip wrote:
lemmi wrote: How can you do that if you're saying that you draft based on VBD?
That's the whole basis of VBD/AVT.
The value at the pick, regardless of position, based on YOUR leagues scoring.
VBD is position specific, unless you are using a completely different concept of it than I am. You evaluate the value within each position to then determine the best player at a given pick. Thus you look at the value of the current top available QB to a QB that is X far down from there as the formula determines. Do the same for each position and it will yield whether you should draft the QB, RB, WR, etc... As players go off the board, the margin shrinks within each position thus positions which have had fewer players drafted will begin presenting greater and great value. I'd consider Rivers in the 5th rd - who people rank in the top 3 or 4 for dynasty purposes - great value relative to someone who ranks in the lower teens at RB.
So you're saying it's position specific and it will yield whether you should take a QB, RB, or WR with a certain draft pick?
That's what I was getting at in my quote.
Yes, you have separate numbers for each position based on the 3 yr averages, baselines, etc. But, the AVT number specific to each player/ranking is the deciding factor at the draft position.
If the pick comes to me and the next RB has an AVT of 70 and the next WR is 90, I'm taking the WR. etc, etc.......

So, I think were on the same page there.

Seems to me this is coming down to the perceived value of RIvers and QB's in general within certain scoring systems. So, if it's 4pt TD's and 1 pt for 25 yds passing or 30 or whatever, I'm still passing on the QB in the 5th. Personally, I'd rather take Vernon or Nicks as my WR3 than Rivers. I don't see a huge difference in his value to that of a guy like Big Ben or Stafford in dynasty. Especially when Ben and Stafford can be had at least a round or two later. At 6 pt TD's and higher points for total yardage, I'd probably have to rethink my strategy in-draft.
I'm just going on my draft as reference, but when I started thinking of taking a QB (Cutler, Kolb, Stafford etc.) I continued to pass on them for in no particular order: D. Thomas, CJ Spiller, Maclin and R. McClain. I came out with Ben in the 10th and Sanchez in the 11th.
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Re: Value of Top QB?

Postby GridIronFavre » Mon Jul 05, 2010 8:15 pm

I don't have time to post full thoughts right now, so will be brief. I do not see how there is so much argument against taking Rivers here. It is the 5th round and he is #3 on my dynasty rankings, I would think top 5 on almost everyone's rankings. Great value in the 5th, don't see how anyone can be against jumping on him in the 5th.
Start: 2 QB, 3 RB, 5 WR, 2 TE (All TDs=6, 1 per 10 rush/rec, 1 per 25 pass, NO PPR) 8 teams
QB: Rodgers, Vick, Cutler, Schaub, Luck
RB: Rice, CJ, McFadden, Richardson, Stewart, Ingram, Spiller, Vereen
WR: Green, Marshall, Roddy, Jennings, Roddy, Bowe, Maclin, Britt, A Brown, Williams (TB), Collie, Smith (STL)
TE: Graham, Finley, F Davis, Cook
Taxi Squad: Tebow, Crabtree, Jeffrey, Hill, Gordon

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Re: Value of Top QB?

Postby pntgvn2399 » Mon Jul 05, 2010 9:17 pm

Well here is my 2 cents and the way I looked at it.. First off you take Rivers here in the 5th round.. He went in the mid 4th round in my startup draft going on right now and I was hoping he would fall to me at 4.10 but he didn't.. Then my strategy went to Plan B which drastically changed my plan, my new goal was to get a solid vet QB and a young guy to grow for a year or two. I did exactly this, I snatched up McNabb in the 11th round and then Henne in the 13th.. It all depends on what you want to do and how you want to go about building your team..
12 Team PPR IDP
Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex 3-4-4 D
QB- P. Manning, Wilson, Carr
RB- McCoy, Foster, Ball, Vereen, Tate, Ivory, C. Michael, L Murray
WR- Megatron, Dez, Watkins, Gordon, Cooks, Quick, Nicks, Bowe, Shorts, M Wilson
TE- Cameron, Donnel, Green
DT- Jernigan
DE- Campbell, Vernon, Nincovich, Casey, Griffen
LB- David, Shazier, Smith, Tulloch, McClain, Riley, Collins, Alonzo (IR)
CB- Cason, Sherman, McCourty
S- Pollard, Landry, Chancellor, Mathieu, McDonald

12 Team PPR IDP
Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex 3-4-4 D
QB- Kaepernick, Bortles
RB- Lynch, Bernard Vereen, J. Bell, Ivory, Michael, Robinson, L Murray
WR- Julio, Mi. Floyd, Crabtree, Woods, Lee, Nicks
TE- Graham, Green, Wright
DT- Joseph, Donald
DE- Quinn, C Jones, C Johnson, M Johnson, Clemons, Lawrence
LB-Worrilow, Dansby, Levy, Marshall , McClain, Bartu, Mauga, Alonzo (IR), Johnson (IR)
CB- Jospeh, Verner
S- Bethea, Jones, Blanton

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Re: Value of Top QB?

Postby Shawn » Mon Jul 05, 2010 9:41 pm

A lot of us have Rivers ranked very close if not on Par with those like Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, so considering Rodgers is seen by many as a 1st round pick, having Rivers in the 4th or 5th round could be seen as quite the steal I think.
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Re: Value of Top QB?

Postby lemmi » Tue Jul 06, 2010 4:52 am

GridIronFavre wrote:I don't have time to post full thoughts right now, so will be brief. I do not see how there is so much argument against taking Rivers here. It is the 5th round and he is #3 on my dynasty rankings, I would think top 5 on almost everyone's rankings. Great value in the 5th, don't see how anyone can be against jumping on him in the 5th.
But back to my original reply, how can we know if it's great value if we don't know the scoring? That was my original point to which it was stated that scoring doesn't matter. Jordanzs gave a great example of Romo and Schaub going in the 6th round because of the QB scoring being low compared to other positions.

As for Rivers being in my top 5, I guess I'm alone on that. The prospect of no more V. Jackson in SD and Gates getting older is enough for me to drop him from there. Unless they get back something somewhat comparable at WR in a trade, I don't think Malcolm Floyd or Legadu (sp?) Nanee are of the same caliber as Jackson. If we're only looking 2-3 years out for dynasty purposes, I'd have Manning and Brady ahead of Rivers.
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Re: Value of Top QB?

Postby DGZDGZ » Tue Jul 06, 2010 9:53 am

Thanks for the advice folks.

I ended up taking Rivers in the 5th, although i appreciate the argument against doing so. In the end, it was a toss up between Rivers and V.Davis.

The subsequent picks were as follows:
46. P.Thomas
47 P. Harvin
48 V. Davis
49 Ochocinco
50 S.Moss
51 H.Nicks
52 M.Wallace
53 J.Flacco
54 H.Ward

I Have just taken Brent Celek with my 6th rounder. So I'm happy to get Rivers as well as a top TE in Celek.

Incidentally the scoring systems is: 5YD PASS=0.2, PASS TD=4, REC TD=6, RUSH TD=6, 1PT PPR.

Thanks

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Re: Value of Top QB?

Postby lemmi » Tue Jul 06, 2010 9:55 am

DGZDGZ wrote:I Have just taken Brent Celek with my 6th rounder. So I'm happy to get Rivers as well as a top TE in Celek.

Incidentally the scoring systems is: 5YD PASS=0.2, PASS TD=4, REC TD=6, RUSH TD=6, 1PT PPR.

Thanks
Not a bad consolation prize.

What does the rest of your roster look like in terms of pick's 1-4?
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Re: Value of Top QB?

Postby princevincexoxo » Tue Jul 06, 2010 10:56 am

lemmi wrote:
skip wrote:
lemmi wrote: How can you do that if you're saying that you draft based on VBD?
That's the whole basis of VBD/AVT.
The value at the pick, regardless of position, based on YOUR leagues scoring.
VBD is position specific, unless you are using a completely different concept of it than I am. You evaluate the value within each position to then determine the best player at a given pick. Thus you look at the value of the current top available QB to a QB that is X far down from there as the formula determines. Do the same for each position and it will yield whether you should draft the QB, RB, WR, etc... As players go off the board, the margin shrinks within each position thus positions which have had fewer players drafted will begin presenting greater and great value. I'd consider Rivers in the 5th rd - who people rank in the top 3 or 4 for dynasty purposes - great value relative to someone who ranks in the lower teens at RB.
So you're saying it's position specific and it will yield whether you should take a QB, RB, or WR with a certain draft pick?
That's what I was getting at in my quote.
Yes, you have separate numbers for each position based on the 3 yr averages, baselines, etc. But, the AVT number specific to each player/ranking is the deciding factor at the draft position.
If the pick comes to me and the next RB has an AVT of 70 and the next WR is 90, I'm taking the WR. etc, etc.......

So, I think were on the same page there.

Seems to me this is coming down to the perceived value of RIvers and QB's in general within certain scoring systems. So, if it's 4pt TD's and 1 pt for 25 yds passing or 30 or whatever, I'm still passing on the QB in the 5th. Personally, I'd rather take Vernon or Nicks as my WR3 than Rivers. I don't see a huge difference in his value to that of a guy like Big Ben or Stafford in dynasty. Especially when Ben and Stafford can be had at least a round or two later. At 6 pt TD's and higher points for total yardage, I'd probably have to rethink my strategy in-draft.
I'm just going on my draft as reference, but when I started thinking of taking a QB (Cutler, Kolb, Stafford etc.) I continued to pass on them for in no particular order: D. Thomas, CJ Spiller, Maclin and R. McClain. I came out with Ben in the 10th and Sanchez in the 11th.
Even I didnt even feel like reading through all of this...4 ppg vs 6 ppg does not impact the value of QB's in comparison to one another, at least not as much as it impacts the value of QB's in comparison to players at other positions.

jordanzs
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Re: Value of Top QB?

Postby jordanzs » Tue Jul 06, 2010 4:31 pm

I think the league's scoring & roster requirements are really important for comparing different positions against one another.

I'm pretty big on drafting based on strength of positions.

If I can start 1 QB, but 4 WRS each week, and my draft choice is up, and I can grab a QB that'll score 250 points for the season, or a WR that can score 250 points in a season, I'm taking the wide receiver.

If I'm in a league where you start a minimum of 3WRs, I'd rather have 3 recievers that score 250 points for the season than 1QB that scores 250 points & 2 receivers that score 250 points. It all adds up to the same, but I want depth on the positions that allow the most starters each week. Even if you have Calvin on your team, you could be sitting pretty on paper (like last season) but when crunch time comes, your player can underperform.

In my 2 startup drafts above, I went in with 2 completely different strategies. In the league where QBs were strong, I grabbed Brees in the 2nd round.

In the 2nd draft, not only were QBs weak, but RBs are weak compared to WRs. That's because the league gives .5PPR to RBs, but 1 point PPR to WRs & TEs. Soooo, compared to a standard PPR league, WRs & TEs get a big value boost over running backs. Of the top 25 players in that league, you'll notice that only 4 of the top 25 players were RBs, but 11 of the top 25 players were WRs. Studying those statistics prompted me to go Rice, Austin, Crabtree, Dez with my 1st 4 picks.


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