Robert Meachem

[Amoo]

What is your projected stat line for him this year. He's only my WR5 but I'm hoping for a good year out of him. Something around 65/1000/6-8 would be great (assuming he stays healthy and takes the role as the #1 WR in SD)... Possible? Likely? What is your projection?

[Chris_R]

His last 3 seasons have been pretty solid from a numbers standpoint, and with Gates the only other major threat to take receiving targets I am looking at 67/1100/7. I think he'll be a high upside WR3 all season, with potential to put up pro bowl type numbers. I think his floor is pretty high barring an injury, but he's still a mystery right now. I have been looking to trade him off of his value this off-season, but I think I may see how he finishes the season.

[ericanadian]

I think you're being overly optimistic.

V-Jax put up 60-70 rcpts on average while Meachem's numbers were averaging in the low to mid 40s. I'd put him more in mid-50 territory. They're shifting more towards a run game and Meachem is not as good as Jackson.

I expect his ypr to improve a bit into the mid 16 range which will lead him to about 900 yards.

Your TD numbers make sense to me.

[standard_variance]

I think you're being overly optimistic.

while Meachem's numbers were averaging in the low to mid 40s. I'd put him more in mid-50 territory. They're shifting more towards a run game and Meachem is not as good as Jackson.

I expect his ypr to improve a bit into the mid 16 range which will lead him to about 900 yards.

Your TD numbers make sense to me.

We all have opinions. Its just that some acknowledge facts on a deeper level. I will use this as an example...

You say Meachem averaged in the low to mid 40's.....did you consider any other factors into why this happened?

You omitted a few facts into your projection
a) he didnt start and didnt get consistent targets
b) the Saints spread the ball around
c) the Saints dont run the ball in a traditional matter

Meachems catches/targets the last 3 years 40/60 (67%), 44/66 (67%), and 45/64 (70%)
VJacksons catches/targets the last 3 (healthy) years 60/115 (52%), 68/107 (63%), and 59/101 (58%)

Meachem's numbers with his current catch rate with VJax's number of targets
1st year (40/60) x 115 = 77catches in 115 targets
2nd year (44/66) x 107= 71 catches in 107 targets
3rd year (45/64) x 101 = 71 catches in 101 targets

Meachem career 16.1 ypc = 77 catches - 1239 yards in year 1, 71 catces- 1143 yards in year 2, 71 catches - 1143 yards in year 3
Jackson career 17.5 ypc

You say that Vincent Jackson is better but you have nothing really to back that up with. For a big guy VJax's catch rate is severely low, and he has never broken 1200 yards. Clearly if you put Meachem into the same situation where he gets just as much attention as VJax did he will be just as good as VJax, and potentially better. For Meachem to put up 50 catces you would assume he would only get 80-90 targets and with them losing VJax I DOUBT he gets any less than 100-120 targets. I fully expect Meachem's floor to be 65-1100 and 6-9 and his ceiling to be 80-1300 and 6-10. If the Chargers can get Mathews going for most of the season that should help Meachem not hurt him...Rivers is still going to pass for 4000 yards and complete over 300 passes. Having the run game established will set up more play action, and take some pressure off the WR's.

[ericanadian]

Meachem's 16.1 is propped up by his rookie season from four years ago. He's 15.3 since.

Meachem started half his games in NO last year and played more snaps than any wideout in New Orleans due to the team's penchant for running out three wide formations.

Meachem received more short passes from a more accurate QB.

It is generally accepted than VJax is better than Meachem. I have trouble believing anyone would take Meachem straight up for Jackson even given their current situations in fantasy or real life.

DLF rates Jackson at WR21 with Meachem at WR36 and the divide gets larger in redraft. Would you expect I put forth evidence when I say Stephen Jackson is better than Michael Bush? That's RB21 vs RB36.

[lake3711]

I think you're being overly optimistic.

while Meachem's numbers were averaging in the low to mid 40s. I'd put him more in mid-50 territory. They're shifting more towards a run game and Meachem is not as good as Jackson.

I expect his ypr to improve a bit into the mid 16 range which will lead him to about 900 yards.

Your TD numbers make sense to me.

We all have opinions. Its just that some acknowledge facts on a deeper level. I will use this as an example...

You say Meachem averaged in the low to mid 40's.....did you consider any other factors into why this happened?

You omitted a few facts into your projection
a) he didnt start and didnt get consistent targets
b) the Saints spread the ball around
c) the Saints dont run the ball in a traditional matter

Meachems catches/targets the last 3 years 40/60 (67%), 44/66 (67%), and 45/64 (70%)
VJacksons catches/targets the last 3 (healthy) years 60/115 (52%), 68/107 (63%), and 59/101 (58%)

Meachem's numbers with his current catch rate with VJax's number of targets
1st year (40/60) x 115 = 77catches in 115 targets
2nd year (44/66) x 107= 71 catches in 107 targets
3rd year (45/64) x 101 = 71 catches in 101 targets

Meachem career 16.1 ypc = 77 catches - 1239 yards in year 1, 71 catces- 1143 yards in year 2, 71 catches - 1143 yards in year 3
Jackson career 17.5 ypc

You say that Vincent Jackson is better but you have nothing really to back that up with. For a big guy VJax's catch rate is severely low, and he has never broken 1200 yards. Clearly if you put Meachem into the same situation where he gets just as much attention as VJax did he will be just as good as VJax, and potentially better. For Meachem to put up 50 catces you would assume he would only get 80-90 targets and with them losing VJax I DOUBT he gets any less than 100-120 targets. I fully expect Meachem's floor to be 65-1100 and 6-9 and his ceiling to be 80-1300 and 6-10. If the Chargers can get Mathews going for most of the season that should help Meachem not hurt him...Rivers is still going to pass for 4000 yards and complete over 300 passes. Having the run game established will set up more play action, and take some pressure off the WR's.

I dont think Meachem gets as many targets as Vincent Jackson. How can you say his "floor" is 65 catches and 1100 yards with 6-9 TDs (that would have ranked about 10th-15th in last years fantasy stats). Clearly his history would indicate that stats more like 40 catch 700 yards are very possible. So what if Drew Brees spreads the ball around? It never stopped Colston from posting top 15 fantasy stats and catching 70-100 balls per year.

Perhaps Meachem is just not that good. Not very dynamic. You can't just pencil him in to take as many snaps as Jackson or get as many targets. There are also other guys emerging in SD like Vincent Brown. But without a number 1 wideout, perhaps SD will be spreading the ball around more this year, and Meachem will remain the same average player he's been since he entered the league 5 years ago.

[dco002]

Floyd and Vincent Brown are the SD receivers to own. Mark my words, Meachem will NOT exceed 800 yards, making him a backup/bye week guy at best. It is all he's ever been, and all he'll ever be. Floyd and Brown have shown well when healthy/given opportunities. I think we'll be looking at all three of them in the 500-750 yard mark for 2012, but with Meachem trending down while Brown trends up. Floyd is the big body so he will be steady.

[Amoo]

Floyd and Vincent Brown are the SD receivers to own. Mark my words, Meachem will NOT exceed 800 yards, making him a backup/bye week guy at best. It is all he's ever been, and all he'll ever be. Floyd and Brown have shown well when healthy/given opportunities. I think we'll be looking at all three of them in the 500-750 yard mark for 2012, but with Meachem trending down while Brown trends up. Floyd is the big body so he will be steady.

My thoughts on that are: Floyd has always had trouble staying on the field. His missed games should lead to more Meachem (and Brown) targets. After this year, Floyd's contract is up. He'll be in his 30's without ever having a 1,000 yard season. My guess is they don't re-sign him. Yes, Gates is still good, but not the same player he used to be. They could then draft somebody, but it's highly unlikely that they would start over Meachem ($) or Brown (I too like Brown BTW) for a couple years. With his contract, and only competing with Brown for targets, I could see Meachem potentially being a low end WR2 (#20-24) for 3-4 years. And my guess is his numbers go up after 2012. Now, if they bring in a top FA WR within the next couple years, then all bets are off.

[standard_variance]

If you have actually focused on Meachem play you would know that he was the most physically gifted WR on the Saints...

history tells us what HAS HAPPENED...based on past trends. The eye test along with the trends say that Meachem has the potential if given the opportunity....what makes you think that the Chargers would let VJax go....and give Meachem (a former 1st round pick) 26 million dollars over 4 years and then not give him that opportunity? You would literally have to blatantly be calling the Chargers stupid......

And to Ericanadian Im sorry but you need a lesson in stats here....you say his 141 catches @ 16.1 ypc are propped up by his 12 catches at a 24.1 average? So you are saying that 12% of his catches @ 24.1 ypc sigificantly affected 88% of his catches @ 15.3 ypc? Sorry but thats well poor assessment....because it only bumps his average up .8 ypc which still isnt out of his wheelhouse. His ypc in 2009 was 16.0, in 20010 14.5, and in 2011 15.5....16.1ypc is not as far from 15.3, as 24.1 is from 16.1 so to say is 12 catches at 24.1 props up anything is...well....incorrect. If anything it indicates his big play potential as well. Which goes back to my first point....he was the most complete WR on the Saints and is the most complete WR on the Chargers.

I dont care what is generally accepted...or what the fantasy rankings have VJax and Meachem at. That has nothing to do with how the Chargers are going to utilize Meachem.....and 26 million dollars says that he isnt going to be just another WR. He will be a playmaker for them. He wont blow the lid off the roof....but he will outperform his ADP and I can say that with the utmost confidence. I understand its my opinion and not fact, but if I were wrong then a few things would have to happen A) Rivers would have to have another terrible year, and B) I dont see the Chargers competing this year if Meachem doesnt produce for them..especially if Floyd, Gates, or Mathews gets hurt at any time....Meachem has to step up or its lights out for the Chargers and I just dont see them going out that easily.

[Pullo Vision]

26 million dollars says that he isnt going to be just another WR

I'd caution about reading too much into the contract. He was signed after the first furry of FA WRs got their contracts. He then became the best of the remaining WRs, and that could have pushed up his value. As well, since VJax had left, the management could let him go without even the appearance of a successor. The would make them look bad not just for this year but all the previous years of battling VJax.

[Amoo]

26 million dollars says that he isnt going to be just another WR

I'd caution about reading too much into the contract. He was signed after the first furry of FA WRs got their contracts. He then became the best of the remaining WRs, and that could have pushed up his value. As well, since VJax had left, the management could let him go without even the appearance of a successor. The would make them look bad not just for this year but all the previous years of battling VJax.

I think the contract is something to look at. He's by far the highest paid reciever on the team, and they didn't pay him 26 mil for P.R. reasons. He'll gets his targets. Not the 150 targets that the top notch recievers get, but I don't think he'll see less than 100.

[standard_variance]

Its not about the contract on its own leg its an accumulation of things. You dont pay someone that much to not give them an opportunity...and if you do then...you're stupid. Here is a passage from an article about Meachem going into more detail about his role in NO.

It’s difficult to discuss Meachems role in the Saints offense without first discussing the unit as a whole. Sean Peyton – like Norv Turner and other head coaches and offensive coordinators – has a very clear vision of his offense. He has (effectively) two tight ends who can run a seam route as easily as one across the middle (Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham/Jeremy Shockey), and a stable of running backs he can choose to either power down the middle or play screen passes to. He also has a deep threat that helps keep defenses stretched to open up the space underneath.

That’s Meachem’s job - to pull as many defenders as far away from the line of scrimmage, and for as long as possible.

New Orleans “leads” the league in teams that target their wide receivers the fewest. The league norm is around 60 percent of passing plays target a wide receiver. For the Saints, it’s 45 percent.

This is what leads to a lot of the mythos surrounding his production.
When teams try to take Colston, Graham or Darren Sproles away by putting an extra man in there, Payton and Brees can just as easily say, “thanks very much … see ya” and drop a long ball in there. No problem. We’ve all seen the Saints play. We’ve all seen them happily move the chains before sending a cannon downfield.

http://www.fantasysharks.com/artman2/pu ... s_high.htm