How far down the rabbit hole? QB debate in SF leagues

[MacDaddy123]

I am currently in round 4 of a 14 team SF TEP dynasty startup draft, start 10.
Now normally, QB is my top priority in SF leagues, but I've decided to try a different tact in this draft.

After watching teams win championships in my deeper SF leagues with QB rooms of Stafford/Goff, Baker/R. Wilson/Levis, I decided to try a different approach in this draft. Started by taking JJ at 1.06 over Burrow, since I have Burrow in other 14 team SF leagues, and know that his injuries can be season killers.

2nd round I took LaPorta at 2.09, with a TEP of 1.0, this seemed like a no brainer to me.
Goff/Tua were the top 2 QB's on the board at that point.
Round 3 I took London over Dak, which might have been a mistake, but I do have concerns about Dak's future in Dallas, and I do hate the Cowboys.

Now, I am on deck in round 4, and top QB's left are Baker and Bryce, while players like Saquon, ETN, Achane, Nico, DJM
So at this point it becomes a debate on how far should one reach for a bad QB???

Just continue to build a good team and hope to get QB's in future rookie drafts?
Obviously can't take Saquon as will not be a win now mode, but KW3, Achane, Nico, etc. does one reach for a QB with 80/90 ADP at pick 51, or just keep amassing BPA?

Just seems so difficult to take Bryce Young over ETN. lol

I don't regret my decision to try something different, just not sure how far to take it.
I could wind up taking ETN, and maybe DJM, then next time around wind up with Stafford/Daniel Jones options

Or go after Bryce Young/Baker now, and just whatever WR/RB make it back to me.

[Tvols]

I probably take young/baker here and there will be comparable WR/rb down the line iMO.

[tstafford]

I don't want a RB that early in a start-up. I'd take Young.

[wickerkat1212]

At some point you have to get QBs. Are the rookie QBs all gone?

[Anteaters]

Just seems so difficult to take Bryce Young over ETN. lol

I don't regret my decision to try something different, just not sure how far to take it.
I could wind up taking ETN, and maybe DJM, then next time around wind up with Stafford/Daniel Jones options

Or go after Bryce Young/Baker now, and just whatever WR/RB make it back to me."

The big decision is whether you want to try to win this year or not. Make that decision and you will have made your QB decision.

If you want to punt this season, don't take a QB now. Don't take a RB now. Keep stacking young WRs and TEs.

If you want to field a non-QB focused roster but still try to win, now's the time to start thinking about your first QB. If you're punting, I don't want Bryce, but if you're building a roster strong everywhere else but hoping for QB sleepers, Bryce is a great option. He's young and there is still the chance he turns things around and is a ten year starter in the NFL. There are worse roster options than drafting a young Derek Carr for your team, assuming Bryce sticks in Carolina and delivers a decade of QB17 stats. Then go for a late flyer with Fields, and take a chance with rookies like Pennix and Nix who might still be available in a couple of rounds. Maybe Daniel Jones if he falls far enough.

Even if you plan on trying to win this year, I would not take a RB now. Taking a RB now could be a waste if you don't get suitable QBs next round or the next round. That would basically mean a wasted draft pick by taking a RB for a losing team.

For either team-construction, I don't want QB like Stafford/Baker/Geno/Cousins who don't have a realistically predictable pathway to being NFL starters in year 3 of your league ... unless they fall to double digit rounds.

[wickerkat1212]

Just seems so difficult to take Bryce Young over ETN. lol

I don't regret my decision to try something different, just not sure how far to take it.
I could wind up taking ETN, and maybe DJM, then next time around wind up with Stafford/Daniel Jones options

Or go after Bryce Young/Baker now, and just whatever WR/RB make it back to me."

The big decision is whether you want to try to win this year or not. Make that decision and you will have made your QB decision.

If you want to punt this season, don't take a QB now. Don't take a RB now. Keep stacking young WRs and TEs.

If you want to field a non-QB focused roster but still try to win, now's the time to start thinking about your first QB. If you're punting, I don't want Bryce, but if you're building a roster strong everywhere else but hoping for QB sleepers, Bryce is a great option. He's young and there is still the chance he turns things around and is a ten year starter in the NFL. There are worse roster options than drafting a young Derek Carr for your team, assuming Bryce sticks in Carolina and delivers a decade of QB17 stats. Then go for a late flyer with Fields, and take a chance with rookies like Pennix and Nix who might still be available in a couple of rounds. Maybe Daniel Jones if he falls far enough.

Even if you plan on trying to win this year, I would not take a RB now. Taking a RB now could be a waste if you don't get suitable QBs next round or the next round. That would basically mean a wasted draft pick by taking a RB for a losing team.

For either team-construction, I don't want QB like Stafford/Baker/Geno/Cousins who don't have a realistically predictable pathway to being NFL starters in year 3 of your league ... unless they fall to double digit rounds.

^^^This is great advice here.

[MacDaddy123]

At some point you have to get QBs. Are the rookie QBs all gone?

Nix and Penix are still OTB

[CGW]

I despise not having two solid QBs options in SF leagues, so I always hit them early. The leagues where I go for value menu QBs, I've been stuck in purgatory waiting to hit them in rookie drafts. QBs are never as cheap as they are in startups and rookie drafts.

All that said, you are committed now. Your goal was to look like the teams from your other leagues that have had success lately with bums at QB, so model off those. Go for Stafford, Baker, Wilson/fields, Geno, Jones and take some fliers on Penix/nix. But ultimately, you better be significantly stronger at other positions to allow your weakness at QB to not put you in too big of a hole....so don't reach for any of these QBs.

In round 4, I'd probably still be loading up on stud WRs because they will be viable long enough for you to find your QB of the future assuming you miss on your later round gambles.

[MacDaddy123]

Just seems so difficult to take Bryce Young over ETN. lol

I don't regret my decision to try something different, just not sure how far to take it.
I could wind up taking ETN, and maybe DJM, then next time around wind up with Stafford/Daniel Jones options

Or go after Bryce Young/Baker now, and just whatever WR/RB make it back to me."

The big decision is whether you want to try to win this year or not. Make that decision and you will have made your QB decision.

If you want to punt this season, don't take a QB now. Don't take a RB now. Keep stacking young WRs and TEs.

If you want to field a non-QB focused roster but still try to win, now's the time to start thinking about your first QB. If you're punting, I don't want Bryce, but if you're building a roster strong everywhere else but hoping for QB sleepers, Bryce is a great option. He's young and there is still the chance he turns things around and is a ten year starter in the NFL. There are worse roster options than drafting a young Derek Carr for your team, assuming Bryce sticks in Carolina and delivers a decade of QB17 stats. Then go for a late flyer with Fields, and take a chance with rookies like Pennix and Nix who might still be available in a couple of rounds. Maybe Daniel Jones if he falls far enough.

Even if you plan on trying to win this year, I would not take a RB now. Taking a RB now could be a waste if you don't get suitable QBs next round or the next round. That would basically mean a wasted draft pick by taking a RB for a losing team.

For either team-construction, I don't want QB like Stafford/Baker/Geno/Cousins who don't have a realistically predictable pathway to being NFL starters in year 3 of your league ... unless they fall to double digit rounds.

^^^This is great advice here.

Yeah, I wish I had seen it before I picked. lol
It wouldn't even have been a discussion topic if someone did not trade up just before my pick and snipe Odunze.
I was definitely going to take Odunze there. Once Odunze was gone, then the confusion set in.

I wound up taking a RB, I took ETN over Achane.
My thinking is to get as many guys who can score QB points as possible.
Now I have JJ, LaPorta, and ETN, who are all capable of putting up 20 points in a week (TEP = 1.0)
London, I am hoping can join that group too this year with Cousins at QB.

My thinking is even if this year does not go well for me, too soon to say at this point, I should be able to sell ETN for a good haul in November.
If Bryce makes it back to me at 5.06, maybe I take him there. If not, probably grab Higgins or Addison, then wait for Will Levis

[MacDaddy123]

I despise not having two solid QBs options in SF leagues, so I always hit them early. The leagues where I go for value menu QBs, I've been stuck in purgatory waiting to hit them in rookie drafts. QBs are never as cheap as they are in startups and rookie drafts.

All that said, you are committed now. Your goal was to look like the teams from your other leagues that have had success lately with bums at QB, so model off those. Go for Stafford, Baker, Wilson/fields, Geno, Jones and take some fliers on Penix/nix. But ultimately, you better be significantly stronger at other positions to allow your weakness at QB to not put you in too big of a hole....so don't reach for any of these QBs.

In round 4, I'd probably still be loading up on stud WRs because they will be viable long enough for you to find your QB of the future assuming you miss on your later round gambles.

Yup, that's me, and it has never worked out for me.
I have lost with QB rooms like Mahomes/Josh Allen/Love, Mahomes/Kyler/Love, Herbert/Kyler/Russ, Herbert/TLaw/Watson, TLaw/Kyler/ARich, etc.

So I decided to try something different, rather than continuing to bang my head against a wall.

Like I said, my inspiration to try this build was watching teams win championships in 2023 with QB rooms like Goff/Stafford and Baker/Russ/Levis/Dobbs.

[murphysxm]

Bryce Young would have been my choice.

It didn't work out for you for a lot of reasons, taking QB's early wasn't the "reason." There are a thousand ways to blow a draft or nail a draft and there is no right answer, but there is also no wrong way. Your picks just have to work

[abloom]

I mean you said it yourself "Stafford/Goff, Baker/R. Wilson/Levis". Just don't pass up on 2-3 of those guys and you're all set. If you don't get atleast 2 of those guys it's going to be harder for you.

I'll also point out that not all SF leagues are the same. Scoring the starter requirements can change a lot.

Finally the key to a compete now team is to really pound the RB and vet groups. They are cheaper due to lack of years and provide more scoring than equally valued younger players.

In a 14 team SF (my preferred format) I like to pound QB and wr early and often in startups (I also prefer auction startups over snake drafts).

I think JJ over burrow is fine. Definitely would have taken tua and Dak over laporta though and London.

I'm also confused about your saquon comment. If you are bypassing the younger more talented QBs for older ones, why are you not in win now mode? If you are trying to build a long term contender then why are you opposed to going Bryce over ETN?

I think you need to reassess your consistency here.

[MacDaddy123]

Bryce Young would have been my choice.

It didn't work out for you for a lot of reasons, taking QB's early wasn't the "reason." There are a thousand ways to blow a draft or nail a draft and there is no right answer, but there is also no wrong way. Your picks just have to work

Exactly!! Everyone just has to stay healthy and perform up to expectations, and I will be fine.
Luck is the most important thing in fantasy football.

I got Bryce young at the 5.06, so now I have a QB.
Team so far through 5 rounds:

QB: Bryce Young
RB: Travis Etienne
RB:
WR: Justin Jefferson
WR: Drake London
TE: Sam LaPorta (1.0 TEP)
Flex:
Flex:
Flex:
SFlex:

[abloom]

Bryce Young would have been my choice.

It didn't work out for you for a lot of reasons, taking QB's early wasn't the "reason." There are a thousand ways to blow a draft or nail a draft and there is no right answer, but there is also no wrong way. Your picks just have to work

Exactly!! Everyone just has to stay healthy and perform up to expectations, and I will be fine.
Luck is the most important thing in fantasy football.

I got Bryce young at the 5.06, so now I have a QB.
Team so far through 5 rounds:

QB: Bryce Young
RB: Travis Etienne
RB:
WR: Justin Jefferson
WR: Drake London
TE: Sam LaPorta (1.0 TEP)
Flex:
Flex:
Flex:
SFlex:

No, luck is not the most important. It's the second most important. The most important thing is skill. This is the same with most "gambling". The lottery, that luck. Poker, dfs, fantasy football, those are game of skill that have varying degrees of luck included. Games like chess or go, those are games entirely of skill.

[MacDaddy123]

I mean you said it yourself "Stafford/Goff, Baker/R. Wilson/Levis". Just don't pass up on 2-3 of those guys and you're all set. If you don't get atleast 2 of those guys it's going to be harder for you.

I'll also point out that not all SF leagues are the same. Scoring the starter requirements can change a lot.

Finally the key to a compete now team is to really pound the RB and vet groups. They are cheaper due to lack of years and provide more scoring than equally valued younger players.

In a 14 team SF (my preferred format) I like to pound QB and wr early and often in startups (I also prefer auction startups over snake drafts).

I think JJ over burrow is fine. Definitely would have taken tua and Dak over laporta though and London.

I'm also confused about your saquon comment. If you are bypassing the younger more talented QBs for older ones, why are you not in win now mode? If you are trying to build a long term contender then why are you opposed to going Bryce over ETN?

I think you need to reassess your consistency here.

Those were QB's on championship teams in my leagues. I never said they were my QB targets.
Looking at my team through 5 rounds now, I would not say I was a win now team: Jefferson, LaPorta, London, Etienne, Bryce Young.

I was opposed to Bryce over ETN purely on a value POV. 4.09 was not time for Bryce, he made it back to me at 5.06 and I took Bryce.
I realize how much the community is down on Bryce, and I am taking advantage of the situation.

That is the 3rd cheap Bryce share that I have picked up this off-season.
Last off-season Kyler was my buy low.