Alex Collins: Buy, Sell, Hold?

[pokerface40]

This dude is growing on me. I've been shopping him a bit but damn did he look good last night. The main knock on him is lack of passing game involvement but he did notch 2 catches, and that could be a sign of things to come.

I'm sure there will be some of you who say to sell high, and I'd agree if the price is nice. But what range are we looking at pick and player wise, and are you buying, selling, or holding?

[kamihamster]

I actually like him as a draft prospect in 2016 and profiled him as a potential work horse. Yes, pass catching may be an issue but like you said he did catch two passes last night. He looks a bit quicker than he did in college, I remember reading he lost some weight, so that may be true. If I could get an early 2nd I think I'd sell. But I don't know if he has reached his high yet. They split carries between he and Allen last night about 50/50 so if that ratio begins to skew more to Collins' favor he might be worth a 1st with another big game.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

This dude is growing on me. I've been shopping him a bit but damn did he look good last night. The main knock on him is lack of passing game involvement but he did notch 2 catches, and that could be a sign of things to come.

I'm sure there will be some of you who say to sell high, and I'd agree if the price is nice. But what range are we looking at pick and player wise, and are you buying, selling, or holding?

There's a lot of uncertainty with Collins right now. BAL employs a RBBC between him and Javorius Allen, Terrance West and Danny Woodhead are both coming back from injury soon, and Kenneth Dixon is returning in 2018. I would sell if I could get an early/mid 2nd for him. That said, I guess there is RB2 upside if he takes over and gets like 60% of the touches going forward.

[Irbir]

I was going to sell but then I noticed he closes with Cleveland and Indy weeks 15 and 16 which ain’t shabby.

[Phaded]

I feel like this is becoming a yearly headache with Baltimore.

[Cameron Giles]

I feel like this is becoming a yearly headache with Baltimore.

Ditto. Sell.

We've gone from Forsett to Dixon to West to Collins, with a little bit of Buck Allen and Danny Woodhead sprinkled in, during the span of 3 seasons. Baltimore is going to keep recycling backs until they invest into one who's actually very talented. Not that Collins hasn't looked good, but I don't see the long-term value in him.

[steelman]

I was going to sell but then I noticed he closes with Cleveland and Indy weeks 15 and 16 which ain’t shabby.

Cleveland has a very good run defence. That's not a good matchup.

[steelman]

I sold him and a probable later 1st for Dez and Kittle. I may have sold him a week early, but better than a week late. We've seen this show before with Baltimore RB's. Sell while you still can because the odds of him having any long term value are slim.

[lukkynumber13]

The easy answer is to say, "sell high!" Since he just put up almost 150 yards on national TV. But what does sell high mean, in this case? Selling for a mid-late 2nd wouldn't interest me.

I'll hold (unless I'm getting a First), hope this becomes Ajayi or Howard 2.0, and if he turns into a Rawls or C-Mike or Matt Jones shaped pumpkin, then oh well I missed out on a 2nd round pick.

[Bot101]

Or just be like me and drop him 3 hrs before the game started, with zero FAAB left to pick him back up!

[DJB]

He definitely looked solid last night. Im intrigued but like others have said Baltimore has been rotating backs for years.

[DJB]

Harbaugh has said he is more deserving of touches. Looks like he will be the guy to own at the moment

[nathanq42]

He is a hold for me. He looks great on screen, and tony romo had nothing but praise for collins, and as a recent nfl player I will put some weight in what romo has to say. Harbaugh says Collins will be getting more opportunity going forward, and since Joe schmoe flacco sucks and got his head taken off on thursday I suspect a very run heavy game plan from the ravens for the near future.

This guy is only going to appreciate. And to the people referencing him coming out as a prospect (not necessarily in this thread, but it has come up in others) that means nothing to me to be honest. Players can improve once they get to the NFL, ie. AB, LeVeon. They can improve on new teams ie. Lynch. So him as a prospect should have no impact on his value now.

[Bot101]

Its crazy to me how his value has skyrocketed after 1 good, not great, performance vs a team that imploded.

[lukkynumber13]

Its crazy to me how his value has skyrocketed after 1 good, not great, performance vs a team that imploded.

The skyrocketing is because it was on national TV and because he broke the 100 yard rushing benchmark. Those aren't great reasons but it's the truth.

Now, as to why his value is rising, period? That's totally justifiable. He's slowly but surely been impressing as the power back on that team, and just had the best game of his career on TNF.

The acceleration on his value might be a bit dizzying, but him being valued currently as a late 1st is totally defensible right now.