OJ Howard TE premium

[nabright]

I am trying to get a gauge on what OJ Howard's value would be in a rookie draft with these settings. The settings are 1.5ppr and 1.5pts per 10yds for TE. RBs get .5ppr and .25ppc. WRs 1ppr. We start 1TE, but have 2 flex spots and a super flex. Just for reference, Kelce scored 326pts last year with these settings.

Where would you draft Howard in the rookie draft regardless of team need?

[RightlegTucker]

His average ADP in regular formats is still in the 1.06-1.07 range as far as I've seen. In a TE premium league I'd probably still lean Fournette/Mixon and Davis but he's at least the 1.04. I think you could make an argument he's the best IRL offensive skill prospect in this draft.

[The Red Rooster]

Even with those settings, the earliest I would consider taking him is at 1.05 but I still probably wouldn't take him until 1.07.

[Dynasty19]

No earlier than 1.07

[The.Big.Spank]

326 for Kelcie. That was what freeman scored in my ppr league two years ago. I think Howard is a good bet at 1.4

[Goddard]

I might move him up to 1.06 ahead of Mike Williams, but I'm not sure. Also, you told us what Kelce scored last year, but we have no idea what other players scored with that scoring...so that's not really giving us all the information. It sounds like RBs are even more valuable since there's a .25ppc.

[mzkp54]

It's not the popular opinion, but he's not someone I'm drafting. Even in a TE premium, I think he will be cheaper to buy next year after he doesn't go out and put up TE1 numbers this year. Even if he does, I don't see his price next year being more than the 1.05ish where he'd cost this year, and you get the chance at it being cheaper.

But like I said, I don't think its a very popular opinion

[jonf86]

Coming from the person who traded you OJ Howard, he should've been a top 3 rookie pick and in contention for #1. It's not just that the league is TE premium, it's also due to the fact you can start up to 4 TE's in your lineup (as long as you don't play a 2nd QB). Simple supply and demand. 32 starting TE's in the NFL (not all are even fantasy starting worthy so the real number is less than that) and 14 teams in our league. That's going to leave a huge TE shortage for some teams. In my honest opinion, you did more than fine with that trade.

[nabright]

I might move him up to 1.06 ahead of Mike Williams, but I'm not sure. Also, you told us what Kelce scored last year, but we have no idea what other players scored with that scoring...so that's not really giving us all the information. It sounds like RBs are even more valuable since there's a .25ppc.

Meant to say something about the RBs too. They score about the same as they would in a normal 1ppr league with no points per carry. So, their value is not really increased with these settings. Even though it seems like they might be. For example, Murray scored only 8 more points in this league and LeVeon actually score 25 fewer points compared to my 1ppr league with no points per carry.

[pierson242]

Coming from the person who traded you OJ Howard, he should've been a top 3 rookie pick and in contention for #1. It's not just that the league is TE premium, it's also due to the fact you can start up to 4 TE's in your lineup (as long as you don't play a 2nd QB). Simple supply and demand. 32 starting TE's in the NFL (not all are even fantasy starting worthy so the real number is less than that) and 14 teams in our league. That's going to leave a huge TE shortage for some teams. In my honest opinion, you did more than fine with that trade.

Of course you would think he's worth the 1.01 since you traded him! He's not worth the 1.01 just because you can start up to 4! A RB or WR would still be a better option. Even with these settings I still wouldn't take him above Fournette Davis Cooks Mixon add in Superflex he's still gonna Go around the 1.05-1.07 range like he has been. But I agree with waiting to buy him next year when he doesn't produce right away like everyone thinks. He's good but TEs take a few to develop

[ShimSham99]

In my two TE premium leagues he went 1.5. I'd take him at 1.4 easily in this format.

[jonf86]

Coming from the person who traded you OJ Howard, he should've been a top 3 rookie pick and in contention for #1. It's not just that the league is TE premium, it's also due to the fact you can start up to 4 TE's in your lineup (as long as you don't play a 2nd QB). Simple supply and demand. 32 starting TE's in the NFL (not all are even fantasy starting worthy so the real number is less than that) and 14 teams in our league. That's going to leave a huge TE shortage for some teams. In my honest opinion, you did more than fine with that trade.

Of course you would think he's worth the 1.01 since you traded him! He's not worth the 1.01 just because you can start up to 4! A RB or WR would still be a better option. Even with these settings I still wouldn't take him above Fournette Davis Cooks Mixon add in Superflex he's still gonna Go around the 1.05-1.07 range like he has been. But I agree with waiting to buy him next year when he doesn't produce right away like everyone thinks. He's good but TEs take a few to develop

Well if you don't think I can have an unbiased opinion because I traded Howard, take my post with a grain of salt. In our 14 team TE Premium start up to 4 TE league, at the moment, there are still 5 teams with only one TE and 2 teams without any. Witten, Julius Thomas and Charles Clay are the only even remotely viable options left on the board. What happens when teams have to deal with injuries/bye weeks? There will be no options for them but to overpay in a trade.

Applying the scoring of this league to last year, Kelce outscored Luck, Antonio Brown, Odell, Mike Evans. Kyle Rudolph outscored Jordan Howard, Julio, TY Hilton. It's not just that teams have the option to start up to 4 TEs. If we were using standard scoring there would be no motivation to start more than 1. With the premium scoring and the option to start more than 1, TE values are extremely high. As it pertains to Howard, TE prospects with his landing spot don't come around every year. If anyone can buck the trend of rookie TE's needing significant time to adjust to the NFL game, he can.

[moishetreats]

In TE-premium where you can start multiple TEs or in 2-TE leagues, I just tend to halve their ADP to approximate their relative value -- both rookie ADP and start-up ADP. In other words, if Howard is valued at, say, 1.06 normally, then 1.03. If you'd value him at, say, 1.08 normally, then 1.04 here. And so on. Same with start-up ADP. Say that TE-"X" is ranked as the 60th player in a start-up, then I'd move him up to around the 30 range in this format or a 2-TE one.

[KenAndTonic]

I'm very high on Howard in TE+ leagues and would take him as high as 1.05, though you have to be willing to be patient with him. I got him at 1.07 and was thrilled, but not expect too much out of him until next year at the earliest and likely year 3.

[nabright]

I do not expect Howard to come in and become a TE1 this year, but I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility either. I think he is the best TE to come out since Gronk did. I more expect him to put up TE2 numbers this year. Then next year most likely will make a leap after TB lets Brate walk and finds a cheaper blocking TE through the draft or FA. In this format the only guy I'd take over Howard is LF. The rest of the guys come with just as much or more risk than Howard.