Sammy + DT = Julio + ?

[CrimeLord]

Spoke to the Julio owner who might be game to trade Julio for Sammy + DT. What would you guys think is fair (both now and if Sammy gets a little healthier)? My roster in sig. Thank guys!

His roster:
http://games.espn.com/ffl/clubhouse?lea ... sonId=2016

[MockGM]

As a Julio owner, I am trying to talk myself into it but I'm not quite there. The Broncos have to show me their passing game isn't inept and Sammy would have to put up a couple productive games. I'd still want a bit more to part with Julio.

[eraldo_coil]

Agreed with the above.

I'm a Julio owner as well and if someone approached me with this trade I'd probably reject it without much consideration. I've never been a DT fan myself, and while Sammy could eventually come close to or even become the next Julio, his injuries also play into the unattractiveness of the deal.

If Sammy was healthy and DT was 4 years younger I might consider it, but overall Julio is a consistent top 5 player so someone is going to have to overpay for me to think about moving Julio.

[jcc6fd]

Theoretically there is more value on the Sammy + DT side. However, I'm of the opinion that DT is standing over a pitfall ledge where his value will plummet if he has a few more unproductive weeks, meaning I'm all about scrounging up any value for him now if you can. I'm also not so high on Sammy. He seems like a consensus first round startup pick but I don't think he deserves it.

I look at this is as Sammy plus whatever you believe DT will produce this year. If you think that's low then I'd do the trade for Julio. If you think it's high then DT and Sammy are more valuable and DT retains value.

[CrimeLord]

Now that the season's over I'm revisiting this trade with the Julio owner. I'm in a keep 6 league so I can't keep all my WR's (see roster). Where do you guys land on the topic now? What impact would coach or QB change make (ie Romo to Denver etc)?

current keepers:
Zeke, Evans, Dez, Gronk, 2 of DT/Sammy/ARob

tradeable players:
DT/Sammy/ARob (Julio owner not interested in ARob)
Woodhead, Lacy, Prosise, Brees, Dixon, Gore

[that one guy]

Romo I think could prevent DT value from dropping, but don't think it would cause an increase.

I could not move Julio for that combo...regardless of how talented Watkins may be, I'm not moving uber stud Jones for the weekly question mark of Watkins and the now tier 2/3 DT, I'd need more

[kmbryant09]

Agreed with the above.

I'm a Julio owner as well and if someone approached me with this trade I'd probably reject it without much consideration. I've never been a DT fan myself, and while Sammy could eventually come close to or even become the next Julio, his injuries also play into the unattractiveness of the deal.

If Sammy was healthy and DT was 4 years younger I might consider it, but overall Julio is a consistent top 5 player so someone is going to have to overpay for me to think about moving Julio.

If Sammy was healthy and DT was 4 years younger.......you wouldn't have this offer in your inbox.

What's holding Sammy back is his health, and what's holding DT back is his age / situation. If Sammy was healthy and DT was 25, you'd be trading a top5 WR for two (2) top 10 WR's - a no-brainer.

This is the kind of trade you make if you believe that Sammy will stay relatively healthy or that DT will age relatively well. Not saying you should 100% make the trade, I just don't agree with the bolded logic.

[saw061600]

You're getting Julio for DT+Sammy? My guess is the other owner is weak at WR and the combo of DT+Sammy helps him more than single Julio. I'd make that trade and keep Julio/Arob over DT/Sammy for your 6 keepers. I think all the players are good but there is more risk of DT dropping off than ARob failing to bounce back.

[DonBrazi]

If Sammy was healthy and DT was 4 years younger.......you wouldn't have this offer in your inbox.

So much this. I can't stand when people point out all the negatives about my players. Those negatives are the exact reason why the offer exists. In this particular case, a healthy Sammy is more valuable than Julio, and DT with a MVP calibre QB is just as valuable as Julio.

It's all a question of risk here. For all of those who point out that DT is peering over a cliff and about to lose all of his value, you can point to the fact that Julio is ASLO peering over said cliff. He's going to be 28 soon and has already fallen from the 1.02/1.03 range a year ago to the 1.07/1.08 range today. That's the same slide that DT went down a year before..

If it were me, I'd be looking to sell the Julios, ABs, Dezes and AJGs of the world ASAP. All of those guys are going to be losing value. Sell em now while they still command top-dollar, and by in a year or two when they've become DT, Brandon Marshall, or Jordy Nelson.

That being said, I jump on this deal. The upside and potential value of the Sammy side is way too tempting for me to hold onto a falling knife.

[moishetreats]

I'm in a keep 6 league so I can't keep all my WR's (see roster).

current keepers:
Zeke, Evans, Dez, Gronk, 2 of DT/Sammy/ARob

With this info, it's a no-brainer to take Julio. Right now, you'd be keeping Zeke, Evans, Dez, Gronk, ARob, and Sammy. By trading DT -- whom your cutting -- and Sammy for Julio, you simply upgrade your keepers from Sammy to Julio.

One caveat: there is a bit of a risk having only exactly 6 players worth keeping -- injury, etc. But, in this case, I'd take that risk.

[CrimeLord]

I appreciate all the responses everyone. It seems like there are arguments for and against, but ultimately makes sense for my situation. Hoping the loss of Shanahan doesn't affect Julio too much.

[Space Cowboy]

I don't think that's enough for Julio. Quick decline. It's missing a piece or two.

[gagrady]

+1 for the Julio side. I like Sammy and DT as buy low candidates if the opportunity presents but won't trade Julio.

[grooner]

in a keep 6 league, I would easily take Julio with your situation.

If it were a dynasty league, I would take Sammy+DT.