The Tyreek Hill Thread

[mullmania]

I keep seeing that people say Hill is very raw at WR. However, his 3.6% drop rate seems to indicate that he's developing nicely in the most important part of that position (source https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/tyreek-hill/ ). He may not currently have the most polished routes, but it seems that all he really needs right now are slants, drags, go routes, and maybe a skinny post every now and then.

If Mahomes can develop into a decent QB, why wouldn't a guy like Hill thrive?

He 'caught' 61 passes for 593 yards.

How many leading WR actually averaged under 10 YPR?

He may hit but we are projecting him to potentially do things we have not seen from him yet.

[ninotoreS]

He 'caught' 61 passes for 593 yards.

How many leading WR actually averaged under 10 YPR?

Jarvis Landry as a rookie. 9.0 ypr.

I was among the loudest to cite that stat going forward into Landry's second year.

I try to learn from my mistakes.

[mullmania]

He 'caught' 61 passes for 593 yards.

How many leading WR actually averaged under 10 YPR?

Jarvis Landry as a rookie. 9.0 ypr.

I was among the loudest to cite that stat going forward into Landry's second year.

I try to learn from my mistakes.

Great drop. Awesome stat

[mullmania]

Looking into these my expectation was that that Hill maybe didnt' catch as many passes per game as landry or wasn't as consistent but he caught over 5 passes in many games.

What is drastically different though is their yards per catch PER game.

Landry per game his yards per catch were
11
3.9
12.4
9.2
8.5
7.1
9.2
7.7
11.5
12.5
9.5
8.0
9.8


Tyreek Hills yards per catch were

9.2
11.0
10.6
5.8
13.3
8.9
3.7
19.6
38
19
4.8
8.7
4.0
9.0


So we have 2 players who both ended with about 9 yards per catch. With Jarvis you typically got about the same type of production each week.

With Hill it read like a roller coaster.

[thebeast]

Can he be a real WR and not another CPatt.

Terrible comp

[bsp27]

He was extremely inefficient and completely reliant on long splash plays. His yards per target was 7.2 (68th in the league). He wasn't productive at college at Western Alabama (Yes, Western Alabama).

He is another CPatt / Tavon Austin and I don't understand how people don't get that.

[cazzie33]

He was extremely inefficient and completely reliant on long splash plays. His yards per target was 7.2 (68th in the league). He wasn't productive at college at Western Alabama (Yes, Western Alabama).

Tyreek averaged over 9 yds per carry and over 16 yds per catch @ Western Alabama and made All Conference & Region teams (Yes ,at Western Alabama)
Stats don't backup your argument there. Coach didn't want to feature him , for good reason. Credit to the Coach for even giving him a chance. Now back to your story


He is another CPatt / Tavon Austin and I don't understand how people don't get that.

Lazy analysis. He's not like either. Tavon is tiny compared to Tyreek who is thicker and way stronger. Cordarelle is more straight line speed as a much taller frame tends to be albeit still super fast. Tyreek had a ridiculous 3 cone drill @ 6.53 if I remember right. His ability to change direction is phenomenal. Can he catch & create separation is the question. So far his catch rate is good but we will see when he runs more downfield and in traffic patterns. Separation he has already done well at too.

I give him a great chance to be a solid productive NFL WR. Just don't think he can be a dominant number one at his size & catch radius. Steve Smith is the only one ever in modern times. May turn out to be Santana Moss/ DeSean Jackson type. I still liken his game to Eric Metcalf. Any one of those was still a factor in fantasy as they had monster big plays which I agree lends them to being less efficient. But they can win you games. I'm betting on him to be Steve Smith lite, not elite but a top 25 WR that some years can be top twelve.

[cazzie33]

He was extremely inefficient and completely reliant on long splash plays. His yards per target was 7.2 (68th in the league). He wasn't productive at college at Western Alabama (Yes, Western Alabama).

Tyreek averaged over 9 yds per carry and over 16 yds per catch @ Western Alabama and made All Conference & Region teams (Yes ,at Western Alabama)
Stats don't backup your argument there. Coach didn't want to feature him , for good reason. Credit to the Coach for even giving him a chance. Now back to your story


He is another CPatt / Tavon Austin and I don't understand how people don't get that.

Lazy analysis. He's not like either. Tavon is tiny compared to Tyreek who is thicker and way stronger. Cordarelle is more straight line speed as a much taller frame tends to be albeit still super fast. Tyreek had a ridiculous 3 cone drill @ 6.53 if I remember right. His ability to change direction is phenomenal. Can he catch & create separation is the question. So far his catch rate is good but we will see when he runs more downfield and in traffic patterns. Separation he has already done well at too.

I give him a great chance to be a solid productive NFL WR. Just don't think he can be a dominant number one at his size & catch radius. Steve Smith is the only one ever in modern times. May turn out to be Santana Moss/ DeSean Jackson type. I still liken his game to Eric Metcalf. Any one of those was still a factor in fantasy as they had monster big plays which I agree lends them to being less efficient. But they can win you games. I'm betting on him to be Steve Smith lite, not elite but a top 25 WR that some years can be top twelve.

[CharlieKelly]

Agreed Hester is a shallow, paint-by-numbers comparison. Best comparison for Hill right now is Percy Harvin. By a wide margin, in my view. They're almost exactly the same player. Harvin just got to be a superstar at Florida while Hill's college coaches weren't as smart as Urban Meyer.

Harvin could've been a perennial pro bowler if he wasn't such an arrogant diva that believed he didn't need to learn anything more about playing WR as a pro. The early return with Hill is more promising, in part I suspect because his college career was drastically more humbling, ofc.

You know, people keep hand-wringing over whether Hill 'can be a real WR', but 61 receptions is normally considered a strong debut season for any rookie WR, even 1st round picks. Some people aren't being quite objective in regard to what Hill has already shown us.

Can he be a real WR and not another CPatt.

As a WR, he already looked better as a rookie than Patterson ever has to date.

Pretty much agree with all of this. Unfortunately people are just lazily throwing around CPatt/Tavon comparisons because they're still hanging around and fresher in our minds than Harvin. Tyreek is already a better route runner than CPatt and just a different kind of player to Tavon.

People also still seem to be spoiled by that 2014 WR class, because nobody seems to be factoring in the fact that he was a rookie this year when they look at his stats. He's young and still a bit raw with so much more room to grow but for some reason people are convinced that a rookie who didn't break 50% of his teams offensive snaps until week 9 has somehow hit his ceiling already.

[smallxl]

Welcome to the forums! My main concerns with Hill are listed below.

1. His best comp is Devin Hester. Both were/are smaller absolutely electric returners with incredible game speed and quickness. Chicago made Hester more of a receiver after he displayed game breaking ability as a returner in the first couple of seasons and he had a couple of decent years at WR but was not really fantasy relevant (CHI did not use him in the rushing game unlike Hill). His return game suffered though and CHI gradually reduced his workload at WR. Hill could see the same fate.

Wow, are people really comparing him to Hester as a WR? Tyreek as a rookie was miles ahead of Hester at any point in his career in terms of playing the WR position. Hester was a terrible WR.

X2...comparing him to that clown is utter silliness

[jeffster]

... nobody seems to be factoring in the fact that he was a rookie this year when they look at his stats. He's young and still a bit raw with so much more room to grow but for some reason people are convinced that a rookie who didn't break 50% of his teams offensive snaps until week 9 has somehow hit his ceiling already.

This is a good point. I've been on the fence about him myself.

[Nanananananana]

People also still seem to be spoiled by that 2014 WR class, because nobody seems to be factoring in the fact that he was a rookie this year when they look at his stats. He's young and still a bit raw with so much more room to grow but for some reason people are convinced that a rookie who didn't break 50% of his teams offensive snaps until week 9 has somehow hit his ceiling already.

This was my exact thinking when I bought him during the draft this year. I realize he had a bunch of big plays last year, but his points per game were so steady after the first couple weeks and he was a rookie. I think barring injury he's going to get more work this year and be productive, I see high floor-high ceiling.

[PingPwng]

Big play threat everytime the ball comes near him. Hyper-athletic and used in all sorts of situations. Great ball player. Just some shower thoughts I had about him.

Extremely young. Bright future, as far as his professional career goes.

Domestic violence history. Been clean several years.

What are people valuing him at? Top-15 WR? 20? He's in the top 30 overall in PPR scoring this season. Massively higher in return yardage leagues.

[Slackalacker]

What a great example. I put him around 15-20. Take away that long TD (which the safety could have prevented if he took a good angle) and he was mediocre. Not necessarily a boom or bust, but a boom or be around average which is around 10-12 points in ppr

[Vcize]

What a great example. I put him around 15-20. Take away that long TD (which the safety could have prevented if he took a good angle) and he was mediocre. Not necessarily a boom or bust, but a boom or be around average which is around 10-12 points in ppr

Long TDs are kind of his thing though, so can't really take those out.

What he's doing differently this year though is still putting up solid numbers without the long TDs. So even if you take that out you're still looking at a solid 5-61 with some rushing yards sprinkled on top. Then you put the occasional long TD on top of those numbers and you've got a borderline WR1 type player.

Forget the long TDs, did anyone think he was going to be on pace to catch almost 90 balls this year at this point in the season? Pretty impressive.