The Tyreek Hill Thread

[ImaRounder]

That was pretty entertaining and confusing read of a topic. Let's just be clear, skill takes care of itself in this league. Does anyone care how big AB is? How about how fast Kennan Allen is? How about the arm strength of Tom Brady? No? Didn't think so. If people want to talk probabilities of certain measurables, go for it, but be ready to eat crow every now and again. How many times does it need to be stated that there are exceptions? One poster has elluded to tyreeks on the field production being more important than his size. Which I agree with to a point, I just simply haven't watched enough of him to make a decision. I am not a Hill believer because I'm ignorant on the kid and that's it. I saw his clips and he is a jitterbug. Don't know if he possesses enough skill for me to feel comfortable investing at his going rate. I'd be more comfortable with Diggs prices(and Diggs as a player )

[pokerface40]

Just caught up on this thread.... wowzers. My take on Hill... sell him for Hunt and Mahomes and you will have the true future of the Chiefs offense.

[cnasty]

Hi all, I'm pretty new here. Really liking the discussions had on the site. I'll be sure to post a little synopsis of myself in the "What's your story" thread later. I just had a question that's been burning at me since last season.

Why does everybody seem so down on Tyreek Hill? He's extremely young, somewhat proven, and his team just lost one of their main targets.

I can understand a little caution/hesitation surrounding the idea that he'll have to regress from scoring on a per-touch basis. However, his touches should significantly increase with Maclin gone. While I can acknowledge that the combination of Andy Reid and Alex Smith isn't exactly known for throwing a bunch of 30+ yard yolo balls throughout the season, the guy is nothing short of dynamic. Truly a homerun threat from anywhere on the field. If you're Andy Reid, aren't you making Hill one of the first reads in the QB's progression?

I'm personally very high on this guy as I think his best football in front of him. A slot guy with 4.3 speed, the agility to make guys miss, complete with the hands to catch the ball.

Am I missing something?

[jcc6fd]

Welcome to the forum! Below are a couple of links to discussions regarding Tyreek:

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=142258&p=1263898&hi ... l#p1263898
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=134759&p=1177822&hi ... l#p1177822

The second link is specifically a player vs pick debate thread where forum users have discussed their valuation of Tyreek.

To answer you directly I think there are plenty of people with a sky high opinion of Tyreek but many others are pumping the breaks on the hype because he is undersized and may not be able to handle a full load of snaps. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle as I see him being productive with plenty of boom games but he may have a few stinkers playing with A. Smith and not being able to stay on the field.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Can he be a real WR and not another CPatt.

[cnasty]

Welcome to the forum! Below are a couple of links to discussions regarding Tyreek:

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=142258&p=1263898&hi ... l#p1263898
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=134759&p=1177822&hi ... l#p1177822

The second link is specifically a player vs pick debate thread where forum users have discussed their valuation of Tyreek.

To answer you directly I think there are plenty of people with a sky high opinion of Tyreek but many others are pumping the breaks on the hype because he is undersized and may not be able to handle a full load of snaps. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle as I see him being productive with plenty of boom games but he may have a few stinkers playing with A. Smith and not being able to stay on the field.

Thanks for the response. I can appreciate the concerns related to his size, but it seems that the league is gravitating towards smaller, quicker DBs, which could bode well for his longevity. I will check those links, though, to see what others have said.

[Chris_R]

I personally like him, but he has a ton of questions that still aren't answered yet and his value seems to be so high now I'd rather sell then hope he answers all his questions. He had a lot of rush TDs or long plays that may be hard to duplicate. The C Patterson concerns are legit concerns for now. His value after his rookie year was sky high too. There is likely someone willing to pay for what he might become and Maclin being released put his value and upside through the roof. Can he become a consistent #1 WR with 1200 yards a year? Possible. I like him but think his perceived value is worth more selling then hoping he turns into that.

I moved him for Watkins straight up in the league in my sig. If he turned that down I was gonna look for some other reliable studs off a down season or to the owner who is a believer. That said, I think Mahomes will be better for him then Alex Smith.

[Pac_Eddy]

I'm one of those who are not buying at Tyreek Hill's current value. It is good for him that Maclin is gone and he & Kelce are the only remaining players in the WR/TE corp, I'm still hesitant.

As Chris_R mentioned, a large amount of Hill's yards & TD is from real long plays. That's great for last year, but it is very rarely repeatable. Being mostly a kick returner who gets pressed into larger WR duties isn't a good sign for me either. Reminds me of Devin Hester. He lit the league on fire with kick returns, but when pushed into the more traditional WR role too, he did worse at both.

I also fully expect KC to draft or sign a bigger name to take over the top WR role by this time next season.

TLDR: he's a sell right now.

[theone]

Welcome to the forums! My main concerns with Hill are listed below.

1. His best comp is Devin Hester. Both were/are smaller absolutely electric returners with incredible game speed and quickness. Chicago made Hester more of a receiver after he displayed game breaking ability as a returner in the first couple of seasons and he had a couple of decent years at WR but was not really fantasy relevant (CHI did not use him in the rushing game unlike Hill). His return game suffered though and CHI gradually reduced his workload at WR. Hill could see the same fate.
2. Hill did very little in the receiving game with a decent load of targets last season. He is just learning how to play WR and we do not know if he will become a competent one. His fantasy relevance largely depended on a couple of big breakaway rushes. Hill's fantasy production could take a big hit if he does not receive significant work in the rushing game.
3. Andy Reid's offense (both in PHI and KC) rarely supports more than two fantasy relevant receivers, heavily relying on its running backs both in the run and passing game. With Kelce as the primary receiver, Hill will have to be the most targeted WR to be fantasy relevant and that is far from a sure thing. Adding a quality receiver either through FA (which could be loaded next year) or the draft is a likely target for KC in 2018.
4. Finally, his mid-first round ADP is just far too high. I am fine taking a flier on Hill hoping he becomes a good receiver and maintains a significant role in the rushing game, but he is going in front of far more polished prospects and proven performers.

The real life player is spectacular as a returner but his long-term prospects at WR are murky.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

1. His best comp is Devin Hester. Both were/are smaller absolutely electric returners with incredible game speed and quickness. Chicago made Hester more of a receiver after he displayed game breaking ability as a returner in the first couple of seasons and he had a couple of decent years at WR but was not really fantasy relevant (CHI did not use him in the rushing game unlike Hill). His return game suffered though and CHI gradually reduced his workload at WR. Hill could see the same fate.

I've seen this comparison quite a bit, and while their physical talents may be very similar, there's two counters as to why I don't think Hill is necessarily destined for failure as a fantasy WR like Hester.

1. As someone who's seen many interviews/interactions with Hester, he's...not the sharpest tool in the shed. No offense to him, love the guy as a player, but I can understand why he may have had difficulty grasping the playbook. I don't know much about Hill, but from what I've read and seen online, he's studying the plays and making progress if you trust the rumors/reports.

2. As a CHI fan, Lovie Smith was a great coach and a terrible coach. Offense was definitely not his forte, and Andy Reid is a much better offensive mind who can do creative things with the ball and play to the strength of his players. Kelce may be the primary receiver, but Reid will scheme plenty of plays to try and get Hill the ball in space and with misdirection.

[dm1129]

I understand the urge to compare Hill to C-Patt, Austin , Hester, etc...but the reality is he is not very similar to any of them. It has already been covered in a previous thread, but it is worth repeating that Hill was used heavily as a RB in college so it is completely understandable that he came into the NFL raw as a WR. This is where actually watching closely what he did on the field is important. He improved as a WR as the season progressed. If a corner plays at the LOS and does not get a good jam on Hill, he is GONE because of his excellent short area quickness and world class speed. There are virtually no corners that can stay with him. The result is as the season progressed, corners were playing back more often and giving Hill a huge cushion and Hill would make an easy catch underneath. In other words, teams very much respect what Hill can do on the field already. At first when KC traded up to get Mahomes in the draft, I was very puzzled by it. Now that I have gone back and looked at Hill's season again, it is painful to see the opportunities that were missed downfield because Smith does not have the arm to get Hill the ball deep so drafting a QB with a cannon arm makes much more sense. Smith is about as poor a fit for Hill as a QB can be. I don't think the release of Maclin and the drafting of Mahomes are unrelated to Hill. If Mahomes pans out, Hill is going to be an absolute beast long term.

[Goirish374]

The problem isn't with comparisons to Hester or Patterson...it is that comparisons in general are silly.

I can probably find two race cars that look alike. I can probably even measure how fast they can go from A to B or how long it takes them to stop or how sharply they can turn at given speeds. None of that is why two guys who both can jump the same height play differently.

When it comes time to race them, if Senna is in one and I'm in the other...i'm going to lose. Probably every time.

That's to say nothing of all the various factors that would have to be similar for comparisons of two different players to be meaningful.

It's almost (but not quite) as ridiculous as the"X position from Y University" crap.

[cnasty]

I keep seeing that people say Hill is very raw at WR. However, his 3.6% drop rate seems to indicate that he's developing nicely in the most important part of that position (source https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/tyreek-hill/ ). He may not currently have the most polished routes, but it seems that all he really needs right now are slants, drags, go routes, and maybe a skinny post every now and then.

If Mahomes can develop into a decent QB, why wouldn't a guy like Hill thrive?

[CharlieKelly]

Welcome to the forums! My main concerns with Hill are listed below.

1. His best comp is Devin Hester. Both were/are smaller absolutely electric returners with incredible game speed and quickness. Chicago made Hester more of a receiver after he displayed game breaking ability as a returner in the first couple of seasons and he had a couple of decent years at WR but was not really fantasy relevant (CHI did not use him in the rushing game unlike Hill). His return game suffered though and CHI gradually reduced his workload at WR. Hill could see the same fate.

Wow, are people really comparing him to Hester as a WR? Tyreek as a rookie was miles ahead of Hester at any point in his career in terms of playing the WR position. Hester was a terrible WR.

[ninotoreS]

Agreed Hester is a shallow, paint-by-numbers comparison. Best comparison for Hill right now is Percy Harvin. By a wide margin, in my view. They're almost exactly the same player. Harvin just got to be a superstar at Florida while Hill's college coaches weren't as smart as Urban Meyer.

Harvin could've been a perennial pro bowler if he wasn't such an arrogant diva that believed he didn't need to learn anything more about playing WR as a pro. The early return with Hill is more promising, in part I suspect because his college career was drastically more humbling, ofc.

You know, people keep hand-wringing over whether Hill 'can be a real WR', but 61 receptions is normally considered a strong debut season for any rookie WR, even 1st round picks. Some people aren't being quite objective in regard to what Hill has already shown us.

Can he be a real WR and not another CPatt.

As a WR, he already looked better as a rookie than Patterson ever has to date.