Donte Moncrief - From Overvalued to Overcorrected?

[splendorlex]

I've been thinking a bit about the ups and downs for Moncrief this offseason. In the early going, he was a dynasty darling, and the chips seemed to be falling in his favor to take a more prominent role in the Colt offense. As we all know, Talented player + great situation = over valuation. If you look back at ADPs before free agency, he was going around 30-35. Then free agency hits, and the colts add a ROFGWR (really old formerly great wide receiver - patent pending.) If you look at his ADP now, he's dropping down to the 50s. So my question is this: did we swing too far in his favor, followed by swinging too far against him with the add of Johnson?

As you can see, I also hold him in my keeper league, so I've been trying to work out what I think his real valuation should be.

[jeffster]

I definitely think the addition of Andre (and possibly to a lesser extent Duron) has dropped his value. I actually got him at 86th in my recent startup.

I think it suggests one or both of:
-He won't play a big role in 2015
-The Colts don't have much faith in him

Personally I buy the first, and not so much the second. But even just the first being true rightfully lowers his value. Be interesting to see what happens after the draft and into pre-season.

[Dookmarriot]

I don't think Johnson will be as big of a factor as people think in the Colts offense, so I agree that the discount on Moncrief is probably an overcorrection.

In fact, I see the addition of Johnson as a positive for Moncrief. For all his physical tools, he's still raw with his route running and technique. Pairing him up with a seasoned vet as an "on field coach" I think will make Donte better going forward. I don't think 2015 will be Moncrief's year (I'll be thrilled with WR4 production), but I'm definitely holding for 2016 and beyond.

[Cameron Giles]

I definitely think the addition of Andre (and possibly to a lesser extent Duron) has dropped his value. I actually got him at 86th in my recent startup.

I think it suggests one or both of:
-He won't play a big role in 2015
-The Colts don't have much faith in him

Personally I buy the first, and not so much the second. But even just the first being true rightfully lowers his value. Be interesting to see what happens after the draft and into pre-season.

Moncrief got much more snaps toward the end of the season. Unless he just flat out stinks it up, there's no way he doesn't have a significantly larger role.

[splendorlex]

I see Johnson as the big body making tough catches in the middle to pick up first downs. I still think Moncrief may be the #2 WR for most of the season.

[Plank]

Yes, I will be watching the Colts closely this year ..

I think he is a great buy "low" right now, I know there's a lot of questions about him, but he's still a 3rd round pick WR in a great offense.

[KCLep20]

Part of the issue is simply there are too many mouths to feed in Indy. You have TY/Andre as starting WR's, then throw in Fleener and a healthy Allen, and then throw in Gore who was used to catching passes out of the backfield. Sure, any game a couple of them could go off but that is 5 legit mouths to feed before you factor in Moncreif.

[cc texan]

Moncrief is only going into his 2nd year. I don't know when we starting writing off players after their rookie campaign, but it's simply idiotic.

I love the potential Moncrief has in that offense, and see the AJ signing as Indy hedging their bets to make sure they have everything in line for a SB run. Wayne's rapid decline and lack of a bell cow RB makes the AJ and Gore additions look like no brainers from a front office perspective, and I don't think it's an indictment of who's already on their roster.

[TheChicken]

I don't see how having an ADP of 50 Is writing-off anyone. Also as ADPs are from start ups only, having an ADP of 50 makes him the 5th player on a teams roster, which seems sensible, whereas at 35 he is someone's 3rd pick on a team, which seems a touch risky.

[jeffster]

Moncrief is only going into his 2nd year. I don't know when we starting writing off players after their rookie campaign, but it's simply idiotic.

I love the potential Moncrief has in that offense, and see the AJ signing as Indy hedging their bets to make sure they have everything in line for a SB run. Wayne's rapid decline and lack of a bell cow RB makes the AJ and Gore additions look like no brainers from a front office perspective, and I don't think it's an indictment of who's already on their roster.

Slow down there killer. This is about his value going from the ~30th player off the board to the ~50th, not to the waiver wire.

I also think there has been some discussion on these forums about how startup draft value isn't necessarily the same as in-season trade value, which makes sense in Moncrief's case. If I have two starting WRs in a startup draft but I need four, I might be wary about picking up a relative unknown like Moncrief regardless of his potential. But if I have a full roster, I might be willing to pay a bit more for his potential. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he falls in startup drafts, but maintains his value in trades.

[Coogan Football]

Part of the issue is simply there are too many mouths to feed in Indy. You have TY/Andre as starting WR's, then throw in Fleener and a healthy Allen, and then throw in Gore who was used to catching passes out of the backfield. Sure, any game a couple of them could go off but that is 5 legit mouths to feed before you factor in Moncreif.

Agree but they did it just fine last year. There will be plenty of targets to go around and Johnson is just another piece they added to give them 3 good WRs. I think AJ was only brought in because they a very good contender to win the super bowl, so of course they are gonna try to add "win now" players to go along with their very good young players, which I think they have a lot of.

[dynastyninja]

ADP of 50 is still way too early for Moncrief

[kadun2]

I don't think Johnson will be as big of a factor as people think in the Colts offense, so I agree that the discount on Moncrief is probably an overcorrection.

In fact, I see the addition of Johnson as a positive for Moncrief. For all his physical tools, he's still raw with his route running and technique. Pairing him up with a seasoned vet as an "on field coach" I think will make Donte better going forward. I don't think 2015 will be Moncrief's year (I'll be thrilled with WR4 production), but I'm definitely holding for 2016 and beyond.

I agree with this. I also think the odds of AJ having a significant injury (or multiple soft tissue injuries) will open a mid-season door for Moncrief to possibly break out this year.

[Phaded]

ADP of 50 is still way too early for Moncrief

Yeah... I agree with this. If I was in a startup I wouldn't touch him there.

[ninotoreS]

I think it suggests one or both of:
-He won't play a big role in 2015
-The Colts don't have much faith in him

Personally I buy the first, and not so much the second. But even just the first being true rightfully lowers his value. Be interesting to see what happens after the draft and into pre-season.

Just because they signed AJ to a contract that isn't guaranteed after 2015? Nonsense.

Look, folks: the AJ signing made PERFECT SENSE for the Colts in real football terms. Fantasy owners are always forgetting to think about things like this. It has nothing to do with a lack of optimism in Moncrief, and everything to do with the fact that 1.) the Colts are legit 2015 Super Bowl hopefuls and 2.) Moncrief is still just 21 years old.

For a team hoping to win the AFC this year, a depth-chart of Hilton-Moncrief-Whalen/Carter would have been putting a huge burden of responsibility on the shoulders of a kid that's still younger than a typical college senior! And just lol @ that #3 receiver.

Now consider the depth-chart of Hilton-Johnson-Moncrief... suddenly, that looks like a WR chart that can win a Super Bowl, doesn't it?

Moncrief is 100% still the foreseeable future at the position in Indy. Real football is more patient than fantasy football.