When talent is just about even...

[growskey23]

I hold the 1.03 and 1.04 in my draft, but the only player I'm sure is going to be drafted is Todd Gurley. I know where I have White and Cooper on my board, but I'm really struggling with Melvin Gordon and DeVante Parker. I have a thread in the player debate section (viewtopic.php?f=94&t=92311), but that is only confirming that opinions of them are just about split. With the 1.04, I'm pretty sure I'll be picking between these two players. If you want to weigh in on the Gordon v Parker debate, feel free to do so, but...

My real question is, when you value two players talent as pretty equal, in what order do you rank the following criteria in your decision making process:

Team Needs
Landing Spot
Position Longevity (WRs play longer than RBs generally)
Position Scarcity (Hard to get elite RB compared to elite WRs)

Feel free to add any criteria that you find important as well. Thanks!

[dlf_jules]

1. Lineup settings


It looks like the league you're talking about is either 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 flex or just 2 RBs, 3 WRs. Either way, that favors RBs, especially in a ten-team league. I'd take the RB in most cases.

[growskey23]

Is this a bad question? I always have these moments thinking "Oh yeah, if I start a thread with ________ topic, everyone will want to talk about it." I guess I just don't understand what makes a good thread. But if the Aaron Hernandez post can get 30+ comments, this has got to merit some discussion.

[Coogan Football]

70% my evaluation of the player
20% landing spot
10% my team need

[Swampdonkey17]

I put players in tiers based on talent, like I would in normal fantasy leagues, startups. Then my overall evaluation of my roster. If I'm a contender, WR/RB shelf life comes less into play. If i'm a pretender, not so much. Starting requirements, roster size, and league values are the next screening. From that landing spots and team needs will dictate order within tiers. Some players move up or down a tier also.


So for discussion sake, say I have Gordon in tier 1, Parker in tier 2 and I'm a borderline playoff team. Standard PPR 12 teamer and starting rosters. I have a need at WR, but my league drools over RB1's, and is pretty trade happy, I'd take Gordon.

But if I'm a .500 team in same scenario, I wouldn't hesitate to take Parker who is in a lower tier in talent. Or if my league isn't active, or teams love to use the Forsett/Jstew approach at RB, same thing. If I take Gordon here, there's a good chance I end up trading him someday in this situation for LESS that what I put original value on him, and Parker for that matter and lose.

[timmahawk]

As others have said, it all depends. League size, trade activity, scoring settings, number of starting slots.

For team 1 in my sig, it's a small 10 teamer with little trade action. I need 2 RBs to start thinking about competing and have plans to try and get Forte and Murray, but if that fails, I'm hoping and praying that Gurley or Gordon are avail at 1.3.

[kadun2]

I look at durability when deciding between two close players. What is their injury history and where are they on the tough scale ? Some players have an ability to avoid injury and some do not. Some very talented college players don't get far in the pros because they are not tough enough or they do not learn quickly enough how to stay healthy. I feel I can get a sense of this when watching video of players, but sometimes it is just a hunch based on what I have researched. Granted some players can be considered tough and still injury prone. Finding the tough, talented survivor is what we want...to make it to the end of the season still going strong. College sometimes offers too small a sample size so it can be hard to determine. RB/WR may be very diffent when it comes to being tough, but there are guys like Dez who break the mold. I do think it is something worth considering when talent is close, even if it may be just a hunch or gut feeling on your part. If you ask me who is tougher between Gordon and Parker I would say that is too close to call also : )

[TheChicken]

Another aspect I take into consideration is how variable I expect their production to be, what I think their floor will be and how they'll score their points. This needs to be taken in context with starting line-ups; scoring system; situation; team need; contending/rebuilding, but I know my own traits and know that I'm a kinda low volatility, high floor, non-big play/touchdown dependant owner. Its why I have Cooper as my No. 1 and Gordon out of my top 5 in PPR leagues!

[clarion contrarion]

so if cooper goes 1:2 then I take them both as I am no fan of white but of you like white then you have to take gordon as you will have a wr drafted already and need the rb help
if white goes at 1:2 then cooper /gordon is an easy duo to select.
the only bummer scenario for you is if the rbs go 1& 2 and even then you get your 2 favorite wr
you are in a no lose situation

[voiceofunreason]

I own the 1.04 in one league, and it's going to be a tough choice. I know some evaluators really love Parker but I'm not quite as sold. I don't get how he only had 800 yards 2 years ago with Bridgewater, the best qb in college at the time. He also seems to lack separation when I watch him. On the plus side he has good ball skills, solid hands, pretty solid numbers (though not spectacular).

With Gordon, he's been going down in value all offseason. I wish I loved him but I have the same questions that most have. He's not a physical back and he's also not super fast. I don't think he's Monte Ball but is he going to be successful behind a bad O-line in the NFL? I'm not sure about that.

I don't mind admitting that the NFL draft will weigh heavily in my thinking. Where they're picked, the situation and if the team picking them is known for drafting well (Green Bay or Baltimore as opposed to the Raiders). I'm hoping Gordon goes to a great spot so I can take him or trade the pick for good value. Seems like everyone has him going to Dallas or Baltimore but he could just as easily end up on the Patriots.