Garret Wilson views?

[hockeyBjj]

He was everyone's absolute honeypot last off season, then the Rodgers injury 4 snaps in and then an abysmal Jets offense led to him just barely breaking 1000 yards with only 3 touchdowns.

I haven't seen the hype train with Rodgers return ramp back up on him like I expected. Is he still *that* guy that only needs a dose of adequate QB play to go for 1400 yards and 10+ TDs? Or did he not jump out during the games last year?

Rodgers is 40 and only has 2 real years left on his contract. Or is the fear that Wilson will just be ok with old man Rodgers, and then back to a team in QB hell and have Wr26ish finishes again?

[Bronco Billy]

That he could manage B2B 1000+ yd seasons in his first two years with what may have been the worst QB play in the league tells FFers all they need to know.

Shoot, last season NYJ was 11th in pass attempts and bottom 3 in the league in pass yds, pass TDs, and AYPA is amazing. Hard to believe they could be that bad with that much opportunity. It was a bit better his rookie year, but not by a whole lot.

If he had even mediocre QBs throwing him the ball, a 1400 yd season would be almost a given. You watch him play and there are times he’s literally uncoverable.

[Jigga94]

I want a discount if there is one. There's a fair point that Rodgers only has a season left (barring another injury) and then the Jets go back to QB purgatory. But GW has put up numbers regardless of QB. The new DJM

[81-]

What is not to like?

Great hands. Better offense from QB, to O line, WR upgrades opposite him. Erin seems to love him.

I fully expect a bump in production with a healthy nut job under center. I can see him having stats similar to DJM had last year.

Time will tell.

[CGW]

I love the impatience the fantasy community has adopted the past few years. I'm all about rookies performing well (see discussion in the Rookie WR threads), but since when is a rookie having over 1k yards disappointing? And to follow that up with another 1k yards despite a dumpster fire of QB play?

He's about to enter year three of his professional career and get a significant QB upgrade (and yes, even Tyrod is a significant upgrade.) Historically, fantasy folks used to consider this the breakout year. And while we've spread that up to expect dominance in year one, year three is still really when I expect a WRs performance to reach new levels. (See JJ, CD, Chase, ARSB). This year that'll be Wilson and Olave, with other notables London, Pickens, and Watson.

[dynastyninja]

I love the impatience the fantasy community has adopted the past few years. I'm all about rookies performing well (see discussion in the Rookie WR threads), but since when is a rookie having over 1k yards disappointing? And to follow that up with another 1k yards despite a dumpster fire of QB play?

He's about to enter year three of his professional career and get a significant QB upgrade (and yes, even Tyrod is a significant upgrade.) Historically, fantasy folks used to consider this the breakout year. And while we've spread that up to expect dominance in year one, year three is still really when I expect a WRs performance to reach new levels. (See JJ, CD, Chase, ARSB). This year that'll be Wilson and Olave, with other notables London, Pickens, and Watson.

The impatience has been there for a while, nothing new really

[dynastyninja]

With Wilson you're buying the talent and his solid production history despite horrible circumstances. With Rodgers he should be much better.

[tstafford]

Top-10 dynasty WR. If there's a discount to be had, I'm buying. But I don't think discounts exist.

[hockeyBjj]

Top-10 dynasty WR. If there's a discount to be had, I'm buying. But I don't think discounts exist.

There's cap implications and he's $51, but I'm trying 2.02 in a 10 teamer, 2025 2nd, and a 2026 1st after he put Wilson on the trade block due to the cap hit

I initially offered Hockenson, 2.02, and the 2025 2nd and he said he liked it, but he couldn't have Hock's $22 coming back at him as he really needs cap relief to go after his free agent targets

Update. He accepted. 2.02, 25 2nd, and 26 1st for Wilson

[MacDaddy123]

I see most sites have GW as a top 7 WR in dynasty.
Not sure you can be any more optimistic than that until he actually starts delivering WR1 fantasy production.
Many sites still have GW over Puka, who has delivered WR1 production.

Not very often that you see guys ranked so highly based on projections, and not production.
Could GW breakout in 2024? Absolutely.
Will GW breakout in 2024? Hard to say, as we haven't seen a 40 year old QB attempt a comeback from Achilles surgery before.

[FantasyFreak]

I see most sites have GW as a top 7 WR in dynasty.
Not sure you can be any more optimistic than that until he actually starts delivering WR1 fantasy production.
Many sites still have GW over Puka, who has delivered WR1 production.

Not very often that you see guys ranked so highly based on projections, and not production.
Could GW breakout in 2024? Absolutely.
Will GW breakout in 2024? Hard to say, as we haven't seen a 40 year old QB attempt a comeback from Achilles surgery before.

The Jets didn't learn their lesson from last year, either. They didn't address the backup QB with anyone solid. Tyrod Taylor is their best option is A Rod goes down? That's another disaster season if that's what happens.

[tstafford]

Top-10 dynasty WR. If there's a discount to be had, I'm buying. But I don't think discounts exist.

There's cap implications and he's $51, but I'm trying 2.02 in a 10 teamer, 2025 2nd, and a 2026 1st after he put Wilson on the trade block due to the cap hit

I initially offered Hockenson, 2.02, and the 2025 2nd and he said he liked it, but he couldn't have Hock's $22 coming back at him as he really needs cap relief to go after his free agent targets

Update. He accepted. 2.02, 25 2nd, and 26 1st for Wilson

Seems like a good deal all around given the cap implications. This is why I love salary cap. Deals get done that would never happen in regular dynasty. Much easier to rebuild, reload, retool in SC.

[Anteaters]

He was everyone's absolute honeypot last off season, then the Rodgers injury 4 snaps in and then an abysmal Jets offense led to him just barely breaking 1000 yards with only 3 touchdowns.

I haven't seen the hype train with Rodgers return ramp back up on him like I expected. Is he still *that* guy that only needs a dose of adequate QB play to go for 1400 yards and 10+ TDs? Or did he not jump out during the games last year?

Rodgers is 40 and only has 2 real years left on his contract. Or is the fear that Wilson will just be ok with old man Rodgers, and then back to a team in QB hell and have Wr26ish finishes again?

I think DJM's arc is the one to expect. Very good hands, very good route-running, questionable situation. That adds up to consistent WR2 finishes. If his situation fits him, he can turn in WR1 seasons, but the more realistic outlook is WR2 season after WR2 season.

The problem is the expectations of the fantasy community. We all see talent yet many ignore situation, and that leads to expectations of consistent WR1 seasons. People are trying to convince themselves that a 40year old qb with fading ability and coming off a major injury is a great situation for Wilson. And they are expecting a high-level WR1 season (1400+yds/10+TDs).

1400+yds/10+TDs is crazy talk. In 2023, only three WRs achieved those numbers (Lamb, Hill, ARSB.) With those sort of expectations, disappointment is almost guaranteed. Factor in the precarious situation (shaky QB, worrisome backup QBs, clueless OC) and I think we need to dial down the expectations.

Yes, GWilson is a good dynasty WR hold and target, but he's not poised for a T3WR finish (assuming you expect 1400yds/10TDs.) Think more like 1250yds/7TDs and I think that's more realistic. That puts GW more in line for a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2 finish. If I rostered GW, I'd be happy with that.

I don't believe there are any discounts coming if you're trying to acquire GW. Everyone appears to continue to be super high on him. As they should be. He's a great talent. Just don't expect WR4 finishes - they may happen, but it's more likely he finishes lower.

[tstafford]

He was everyone's absolute honeypot last off season, then the Rodgers injury 4 snaps in and then an abysmal Jets offense led to him just barely breaking 1000 yards with only 3 touchdowns.

I haven't seen the hype train with Rodgers return ramp back up on him like I expected. Is he still *that* guy that only needs a dose of adequate QB play to go for 1400 yards and 10+ TDs? Or did he not jump out during the games last year?

Rodgers is 40 and only has 2 real years left on his contract. Or is the fear that Wilson will just be ok with old man Rodgers, and then back to a team in QB hell and have Wr26ish finishes again?

I think DJM's arc is the one to expect. Very good hands, very good route-running, questionable situation. That adds up to consistent WR2 finishes. If his situation fits him, he can turn in WR1 seasons, but the more realistic outlook is WR2 season after WR2 season.

The problem is the expectations of the fantasy community. We all see talent yet many ignore situation, and that leads to expectations of consistent WR1 seasons. People are trying to convince themselves that a 40year old qb with fading ability and coming off a major injury is a great situation for Wilson. And they are expecting a high-level WR1 season (1400+yds/10+TDs).

1400+yds/10+TDs is crazy talk. In 2023, only three WRs achieved those numbers (Lamb, Hill, ARSB.) With those sort of expectations, disappointment is almost guaranteed. Factor in the precarious situation (shaky QB, worrisome backup QBs, clueless OC) and I think we need to dial down the expectations.

Yes, GWilson is a good dynasty WR hold and target, but he's not poised for a T3WR finish (assuming you expect 1400yds/10TDs.) Think more like 1250yds/7TDs and I think that's more realistic. That puts GW more in line for a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2 finish. If I rostered GW, I'd be happy with that.

Two things can be simultaneous true - you're right about the expectations/projections and GW is a top-10 dynasty WR. Given his age (and potential upside) he's worth ranking that way. Mike Evans might very well out score GW this year but I'm not taking Evans over Wilson in dynasty. Same with D.Adams and T.Hill. I guess the problem is that if you're a contender it's hard to pay the price for GW because you want (need?) more production in that slot. Comes down to how you build your team. I wouldn't want GW as my WR1 on a contender. The only share I have is on a team where I took him as a devy and he's my WR2. I like GW a lot but I'm probably out at market value. (As to why I'm not selling my share - it's salary cap and super complicated!).

[Anteaters]

He was everyone's absolute honeypot last off season, then the Rodgers injury 4 snaps in and then an abysmal Jets offense led to him just barely breaking 1000 yards with only 3 touchdowns.

I haven't seen the hype train with Rodgers return ramp back up on him like I expected. Is he still *that* guy that only needs a dose of adequate QB play to go for 1400 yards and 10+ TDs? Or did he not jump out during the games last year?

Rodgers is 40 and only has 2 real years left on his contract. Or is the fear that Wilson will just be ok with old man Rodgers, and then back to a team in QB hell and have Wr26ish finishes again?

I think DJM's arc is the one to expect. Very good hands, very good route-running, questionable situation. That adds up to consistent WR2 finishes. If his situation fits him, he can turn in WR1 seasons, but the more realistic outlook is WR2 season after WR2 season.

The problem is the expectations of the fantasy community. We all see talent yet many ignore situation, and that leads to expectations of consistent WR1 seasons. People are trying to convince themselves that a 40year old qb with fading ability and coming off a major injury is a great situation for Wilson. And they are expecting a high-level WR1 season (1400+yds/10+TDs).

1400+yds/10+TDs is crazy talk. In 2023, only three WRs achieved those numbers (Lamb, Hill, ARSB.) With those sort of expectations, disappointment is almost guaranteed. Factor in the precarious situation (shaky QB, worrisome backup QBs, clueless OC) and I think we need to dial down the expectations.

Yes, GWilson is a good dynasty WR hold and target, but he's not poised for a T3WR finish (assuming you expect 1400yds/10TDs.) Think more like 1250yds/7TDs and I think that's more realistic. That puts GW more in line for a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2 finish. If I rostered GW, I'd be happy with that.

Two things can be simultaneous true - you're right about the expectations/projections and GW is a top-10 dynasty WR. Given his age (and potential upside) he's worth ranking that way. Mike Evans might very well out score GW this year but I'm not taking Evans over Wilson in dynasty. Same with D.Adams and T.Hill. I guess the problem is that if you're a contender it's hard to pay the price for GW because you want (need?) more production in that slot. Comes down to how you build your team. I wouldn't want GW as my WR1 on a contender. The only share I have is on a team where I took him as a devy and he's my WR2. I like GW a lot but I'm probably out at market value. (As to why I'm not selling my share - it's salary cap and super complicated!).

Agreed on all.
I would love love love to have a share of GW. I would hate hate for GW to be my WR1 on any of my teams.

He's definitely a T10WR for dynasty. He almost certainly will not deliver a T10WR finish in stats in 2024. It's possible, but not likely in my opinion.