Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[mild]

I think it says something that when you are looking for positive TEAM SITUATION, you found a sample size of 1 game. Just saying.

Both can be true.

Now, please go find me the sample size of JJ McCarthy being down in the 4th Quarter in a 2 minute drill and putting his team on his back to win the game.

Not last 2 mins, but TD pass drive starting at 4minSomething through 1minSomething of regulation time in CFP versus Bama, to force OT, he did that imo.

Oh so -now- we love 1 game sample sizes

[wickerkat1212]

Anyone have any thoughts on Cade Stover HOU TE?

He's one of the few day 3 guys that's interesting. His athletic testing was in 75thish or better percentile, and athletic profile for TE's is a big deal, most TE's who hit tend to be on the highest end of the athletic profile. He's right in there.

So to me, is he worth a flyer w/a 3rd or 4th? Probably, just don't expect to land an elite TE with him, he's a guy whose probable ceiling is gonna be like a Tyler Conklin plus. He's not a hidden superstar guy from what I can tell. Interesting side note that I didn't realize until I dug into this guy just now: was a 4 star OLB prospect when Ohio State got his signature. So he played both sides of the ball in high school, but was seen as an OLB at the next level, instead he moved over to TE.

Interesting prospect, I'm skeptical he has stardom in his future, but utility as a bench TE? I could see that. Clearly Brevin Jordan, once Pitts competition in '21 if memory serves, is no longer a TE worthy of any consideration. Unless I'm remembering wrong this is the third day 2 or early day 3 guy the Texans have taken at TE in the past 5 years, my old fav, Kahale Warring, who busted completely, Brevin, another cheap target of mine, failed as well, and now Stover. Pretty rough run of TE's.

Thanks, appreciate that.

[lukkynumber13]

Am I crazy for kind of being in love with Ja’Lynn Polk? I see Nuk out there. Not huge, but good size. Hands seem to be elite. Solid footwork.

Landing spot is great.

[Jrblaha]

Both can be true.

Now, please go find me the sample size of JJ McCarthy being down in the 4th Quarter in a 2 minute drill and putting his team on his back to win the game.

Not last 2 mins, but TD pass drive starting at 4minSomething through 1minSomething of regulation time in CFP versus Bama, to force OT, he did that imo.

Oh so -now- we love 1 game sample sizes

I don’t have the context of the rest of the back and forth on it, just giving ya what ya asked for lol

I think JJ is gonna be successful. He seemed to produce when called upon, and he’s not old, but I get thinking he won’t pan out since he didn’t have as heavy of a workload in college. Couldn’t ask for a better spot, so we’ll see what he can do with it, I’m personally betting on him doing well, he’s my QB3 of the class

[mild]

Am I crazy for kind of being in love with Ja’Lynn Polk? I see Nuk out there. Not huge, but good size. Hands seem to be elite. Solid footwork.

Landing spot is great.

You are not crazy, he's a really solid WR. Reportedly already leading the room over there in camp and getting good reps with Drake.

I don't know about Nuk - but targeting ambiguous situations, be they backfields or WR rooms - is one of the ways you can really beat ADP and extract value.

-someone- has to catch the ball over there in NE... who's it going to be, Tyquan Thornton?

If Drake Maye is anywhere near as good as some people think he is - then we should probably be targeting his WR's going forward...

[Jrblaha]

Am I crazy for kind of being in love with Ja’Lynn Polk? I see Nuk out there. Not huge, but good size. Hands seem to be elite. Solid footwork.

Landing spot is great.

You are not crazy, he's a really solid WR. Reportedly already leading the room over there in camp and getting good reps with Drake.

I don't know about Nuk - but targeting ambiguous situations, be they backfields or WR rooms - is one of the ways you can really beat ADP and extract value.

-someone- has to catch the ball over there in NE... who's it going to be, Tyquan Thornton?

If Drake Maye is anywhere near as good as some people think he is - then we should probably be targeting his WR's going forward...

I also like Polk at his adp (mid 2nd in 1QB)

[wickerkat1212]

Glad to hear all of this talk about Polk, as I recently took him at 2.10 in one of my drafts. Agree on the hands.

[killer_of_giants]

Am I crazy for kind of being in love with Ja’Lynn Polk? I see Nuk out there. Not huge, but good size. Hands seem to be elite. Solid footwork.

Landing spot is great.

great tracking too, and he's crushing the treadwell-diggs scale.

[Bronco Billy]

Not last 2 mins, but TD pass drive starting at 4minSomething through 1minSomething of regulation time in CFP versus Bama, to force OT, he did that imo.

Oh so -now- we love 1 game sample sizes

I don’t have the context of the rest of the back and forth on it, just giving ya what ya asked for lol

I think JJ is gonna be successful. He seemed to produce when called upon, and he’s not old, but I get thinking he won’t pan out since he didn’t have as heavy of a workload in college. Couldn’t ask for a better spot, so we’ll see what he can do with it, I’m personally betting on him doing well, he’s my QB3 of the class

Am I getting this right? We’re downgrading a QB for not succeeding in opportunities he didn’t have?

Yeah, that makes sense.

[Cameron Giles]

Oh so -now- we love 1 game sample sizes

I don’t have the context of the rest of the back and forth on it, just giving ya what ya asked for lol

I think JJ is gonna be successful. He seemed to produce when called upon, and he’s not old, but I get thinking he won’t pan out since he didn’t have as heavy of a workload in college. Couldn’t ask for a better spot, so we’ll see what he can do with it, I’m personally betting on him doing well, he’s my QB3 of the class

Am I getting this right? We’re downgrading a QB for not succeeding in opportunities he didn’t have?

Yeah, that makes sense.

Inexperience has led to QBs not panning out before, so it's not illogical. McCarthy has six games of 30+ passing attempts, which is absurdly low for a 1st round pick.

[FantasyFreak]

Am I crazy for kind of being in love with Ja’Lynn Polk? I see Nuk out there. Not huge, but good size. Hands seem to be elite. Solid footwork.

Landing spot is great.

Nuk is way scrappier vs man. Polk doesn't seem to be that sudden of a player, I think he's going to struggle vs man in the NFL. Let's not forget he was arguably the 3rd best WR on his college team, and wasn't likely seeing college teams best corners.

If he has to face an NFL teams best corner, that's going to be a problem. Maye shouldn't be playing early this year, so it will likely be Brissett throwing to him. I also expect the Pats to add a WR of significance next year. Polk doesn't profile as an NFL teams WR1, and things likely won't go well for Maye and NE, if he is.

Not saying he can't be a solid player, but he's not an NFL WR1.

[Bronco Billy]

Here’s what I love about McCarthy, and I’m admittedly high on him. If you look at his 1st half splits, he compares very favorably with the other top QBs in this draft. It’s when you’re comparing full game stats that his numbers don’t keep up. That makes sense when he’s playing on a run dominant team that was leading a lot in the 2nd half of games.

But there’s a lot more. If you watch his tape, he’s throwing into NFL type tight windows a lot more than the other top QBs. His receivers just did not do a good job fooling coverage and creating separation. Shoot, it’s even mentioned in RP’s review of Roman Wilson, where Harmon says he went in to review Wilson and came away a lot more impressed with McCarthy than Wilson’s skills.

He’s nails in pressure situations. He outperformed CW and Maye and was a hair behind Daniels in completing 3rd & 7+ and moving the chains. He stands in under a rush and will complete passes just before taking a big hit. And oddly, when he’s forced to move in the pocket or scramble out of the pocket and go on the run to avoid pressure, his mechanics tighten up and he’s highly successful.

He can also run when he has to when nothing is available to him, although he prefers to extend plays and keep his eyes downfield. The amalgam of all those traits make me think he’ll perform well at the next level. Those are all highly desirable and highly transferrable skills going to the next level.

Where he needs work is when he has a clean pocket. He is not as tight mechanically when he has no one buzzing around him, he seems to get a little loose and sloppy with his footwork and his hips/shoulders positioning. You could see that at the combine when he was throwing outs to his left, where he didn’t open his hips and shoulders enough and his throws sailed on him. He doesn’t throw a great deep ball and needs to get a little air under it, so fly routes are not great for him. Again, oddly, he’s great at throwing post and corner routes, which is where great NFL QBs thrive in the red zone.

If he gets some coaching on cleaning up his mechanics so that he’s more consistent and repeatable when he isn’t under pressure, the sky is the limit for him. He’s already really good at the really hard and sometimes unteachable stuff. His leadership is nothing short of outstanding and his teammates in the pros are going to love him. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t end up as a really good pro.

[wickerkat1212]

Value check on Nabers. 12-man, 1 ppr would you rather have:

Olave/Zamir
or
Nabers/2.02

[Jigga94]

Value check on Nabers. 12-man, 1 ppr would you rather have:

Olave/Zamir
or
Nabers/2.02

Seems pretty fair. I could see the Nabers side for a rebuild with the pick or the Olave side for someone wanting RB depth this year. Olave side safer, Nabers more risk but more upside

[wickerkat1212]

Value check on Nabers. 12-man, 1 ppr would you rather have:

Olave/Zamir
or
Nabers/2.02

Seems pretty fair. I could see the Nabers side for a rebuild with the pick or the Olave side for someone wanting RB depth this year. Olave side safer, Nabers more risk but more upside

Thanks. That's about how I see it. I've been talking to a guy about the 1.02 and he wanted Puka, and this is where we are. It's very close for me. Olave is my WR4 right now behind Lamb, DJM, and Puka and I'm taking Harrison at 1.01. Olave is still 23, so this is probably a risk I don't need to take, I don't get much younger, and the extra juice at 2.02 probably isn't worth the squeeze.