x2Black Adam wrote: ↑Sun May 12, 2024 2:37 amI think 97 rec / 151.5 trg / 1,476 yds / 9 td is definitely doable by year 2 for Nabers.moishetreats wrote: ↑Sat May 11, 2024 9:01 pm Over the past two years in Philly, Brown has averaged 164 targets / 97 / 1,476 / 9.
There's no realistic reason to think that he won't continue a similar pace for the next two years.
There's no realistic reason to think that Nabers will do that in the next two years. And that kind of stat line is probably his (or just about any WR's) ceiling.
In a rebuild, I could argue for Nabers over AJB. On a competitive team, taking Nabers over AJB doesn't make any sense to me.
In any case, Imma take the better athlete and football prospect that's 6 years younger, but to I can definitely see both sides.
AJB v Nabers
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Re: AJB v Nabers
Team 1: 16 Team
QB's: Fields, Wentz,
RB: D. Harris, D. Montgomery, Kendre M.
WR: Chase, AJ Brown, Aiyuk, Bateman
TE: Waller, J. Woods, Dulich, Mayer
Team 2: 12 Team SF 1ppr, Start 10
QB: Mahomes, Burrow, Watson
RB: Hall, Walker, Javonte, Pacheco, K Mitchell, Dobbins
WR: Godwin, JSN, Pittman, Pickens, Toney, DP Jones, S Moore
TE: Andrews, Fant, Likely
(2024) 1.03, 2.03, 3.03
(2025) Top 3 1st, my 1st
Team 3 SF, TEP, Start 11 ppr
QB: AR, Watson, Young, Levis
RB: ETN, Walker, Pierce, Akers, Pacheco, Herbert, Warren, Kelley
WR: G. Wilson, Higgins, Godwin, Kirk, Bateman, Collins, Doubs, Chark, Shaheed,
TE: Schultz, I Smith, Bellinger, Parham, Fant, Likely, Granson,
QB's: Fields, Wentz,
RB: D. Harris, D. Montgomery, Kendre M.
WR: Chase, AJ Brown, Aiyuk, Bateman
TE: Waller, J. Woods, Dulich, Mayer
Team 2: 12 Team SF 1ppr, Start 10
QB: Mahomes, Burrow, Watson
RB: Hall, Walker, Javonte, Pacheco, K Mitchell, Dobbins
WR: Godwin, JSN, Pittman, Pickens, Toney, DP Jones, S Moore
TE: Andrews, Fant, Likely
(2024) 1.03, 2.03, 3.03
(2025) Top 3 1st, my 1st
Team 3 SF, TEP, Start 11 ppr
QB: AR, Watson, Young, Levis
RB: ETN, Walker, Pierce, Akers, Pacheco, Herbert, Warren, Kelley
WR: G. Wilson, Higgins, Godwin, Kirk, Bateman, Collins, Doubs, Chark, Shaheed,
TE: Schultz, I Smith, Bellinger, Parham, Fant, Likely, Granson,
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Re: AJB v Nabers
Certainly. That's always a risk with rookies -- and really with anyone. I'll say this, though. Barring a *horrific* year, most top-tier rookies retain at least most of their value entering Year 2. Say that Nabers ends up with 57-761-4. Anyone with Nabers would be disappointed. Still, I'm willing to bet that someone in the league (maybe even the original Nabers drafter) would think that a huge second-year jump is likely. In other words, yes, it's a real risk. But unless a top-tier rookie realllllly has a disastrous season, I think a lot of his value is insulated.bigbuck22 wrote: ↑Sun May 12, 2024 10:08 amDo you see a pathway for Nabers' value to fall a bit through year 1 making an attempt to acquire him now a bit risky?moishetreats wrote: ↑Sat May 11, 2024 9:01 pm Over the past two years in Philly, Brown has averaged 164 targets / 97 / 1,476 / 9.
There's no realistic reason to think that he won't continue a similar pace for the next two years.
There's no realistic reason to think that Nabers will do that in the next two years. And that kind of stat line is probably his (or just about any WR's) ceiling.
In a rebuild, I could argue for Nabers over AJB. On a competitive team, taking Nabers over AJB doesn't make any sense to me.
Of course, say that AJB has a down year and an injured year. His value could tank, too. Look at Kupp. Obviously, AJB is meaningfully younger, but a drop could happen there, too.
Bottom line: unless there is substantial risk of a massive value drop (Kyren Williams is the first player that comes to my mind), I don't worry excessively about the potential dip in value when considering guys like Nabers and AJB.
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball
QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble
2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th
12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball
QB: Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Brooks ('27), Wright ('27), Guerendo ('26), Mitchell ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), Nabers ('28), Worthy ('28), Polk ('28), Franklin ('28), E Moore ('25), M Thomas ('25), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $201
IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): Sinnott ('28), All ('28), Schrader ('26), A Reed ('28)
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball
QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble
2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th
12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball
QB: Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Brooks ('27), Wright ('27), Guerendo ('26), Mitchell ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), Nabers ('28), Worthy ('28), Polk ('28), Franklin ('28), E Moore ('25), M Thomas ('25), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $201
IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): Sinnott ('28), All ('28), Schrader ('26), A Reed ('28)
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Re: AJB v Nabers
AJB is turning 27. The ageism is going too far. If I'm a contender in a 3yr window, I have absolutely no interest in this deal. We hope, we pray, we believe Nabers will be an elite WR, but AJB already is and has consistently proven it at the NFL level.
Sure, in a rebuild I'd try to trade for 1.02 (honestly, I'd try to get a little more on top). Otherwise, hold onto the elite stud WR paired with a QB that's helping him put up top tier WR stats and enjoy.
Sure, in a rebuild I'd try to trade for 1.02 (honestly, I'd try to get a little more on top). Otherwise, hold onto the elite stud WR paired with a QB that's helping him put up top tier WR stats and enjoy.
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Re: AJB v Nabers
just seeing some of the numbers ppl are throwing around in here in what they are expecting from nabers, i think their are going to be a ton of disappointed fantasy owners 2 years from now. i like nabers as a player and think hes very much like garret wilson in terms of value and all but to expect more is pretty wild imo
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Re: AJB v Nabers
There is an awful lot of projection going on. There are also people acting like AJB is hitting his age cliff, when he is coming up 27, literally his prime.
I am a huge Nabers fan too but if I’m contending give me AJB everytime.
Also how much can Nabers value rise? If we are currently saying AJB = Nabers I’d say both are at 2 x 1st maybe a tad more. If Nabers smashes early we can add a 1st to his value in which case I’d rather pay that higher price once he has hit rather than betting the speculation/optimism.
I am a huge Nabers fan too but if I’m contending give me AJB everytime.
Also how much can Nabers value rise? If we are currently saying AJB = Nabers I’d say both are at 2 x 1st maybe a tad more. If Nabers smashes early we can add a 1st to his value in which case I’d rather pay that higher price once he has hit rather than betting the speculation/optimism.
12 Team 1 pt PPR
1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 3Flex 1K
QB Kyler Tua, McCarthy
RB Bijan, Gibbs, Jamaal, CEH, Allgeier, Brown, Guerendo
WR Hill, JJ, AJB, Keenan, Reed Thielen, Boyd, Iosivas, Odunze, Corley
TE Hockenson Ferguson,
K Elliot
1DT 2DE 3LB 1CB 2S 1Flex
DT Zach Allen, Clark, Armstead
DE Crosby, Van Ness, Turner, Wonnum, Diaby
LB Greenlaw, Kendricks, Bernard, Mosley, McFadden, Overshown, Cashman, Henley, Luifau
CB Stream
S Bynum, Blankenship fuller, grant, Nubin
2025 2, 3 ,6
1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 3Flex 1K
QB Kyler Tua, McCarthy
RB Bijan, Gibbs, Jamaal, CEH, Allgeier, Brown, Guerendo
WR Hill, JJ, AJB, Keenan, Reed Thielen, Boyd, Iosivas, Odunze, Corley
TE Hockenson Ferguson,
K Elliot
1DT 2DE 3LB 1CB 2S 1Flex
DT Zach Allen, Clark, Armstead
DE Crosby, Van Ness, Turner, Wonnum, Diaby
LB Greenlaw, Kendricks, Bernard, Mosley, McFadden, Overshown, Cashman, Henley, Luifau
CB Stream
S Bynum, Blankenship fuller, grant, Nubin
2025 2, 3 ,6
Re: AJB v Nabers
While I 100% agree that the ageism (26 going on 27) is out of control. The ageist group drives values down at that point. That's the biggest reason I am considering the move.Menace2010 wrote: ↑Sun May 12, 2024 10:46 am AJB is turning 27. The ageism is going too far. If I'm a contender in a 3yr window, I have absolutely no interest in this deal. We hope, we pray, we believe Nabers will be an elite WR, but AJB already is and has consistently proven it at the NFL level.
Sure, in a rebuild I'd try to trade for 1.02 (honestly, I'd try to get a little more on top). Otherwise, hold onto the elite stud WR paired with a QB that's helping him put up top tier WR stats and enjoy.
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Re: AJB v Nabers
^^^This 100% for me.Dunville wrote: ↑Sun May 12, 2024 11:24 am There is an awful lot of projection going on. There are also people acting like AJB is hitting his age cliff, when he is coming up 27, literally his prime.
I am a huge Nabers fan too but if I’m contending give me AJB everytime.
Also how much can Nabers value rise? If we are currently saying AJB = Nabers I’d say both are at 2 x 1st maybe a tad more. If Nabers smashes early we can add a 1st to his value in which case I’d rather pay that higher price once he has hit rather than betting the speculation/optimism.
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball
QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble
2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th
12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball
QB: Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Brooks ('27), Wright ('27), Guerendo ('26), Mitchell ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), Nabers ('28), Worthy ('28), Polk ('28), Franklin ('28), E Moore ('25), M Thomas ('25), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $201
IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): Sinnott ('28), All ('28), Schrader ('26), A Reed ('28)
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball
QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble
2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th
12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball
QB: Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Brooks ('27), Wright ('27), Guerendo ('26), Mitchell ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), Nabers ('28), Worthy ('28), Polk ('28), Franklin ('28), E Moore ('25), M Thomas ('25), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $201
IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): Sinnott ('28), All ('28), Schrader ('26), A Reed ('28)
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Re: AJB v Nabers
A lot of rookie fear going on in here.
Yes, while Nabers is 6 years younger, he's also a better prospect and athlete overall. It's not out of the realm of distinct possibilities he becomes AJB+; barring injury, it's what should happen.
Anti-ageists are also assuming Brown falls off when he's 30ish. He might be elite until he's 34, or he could fall off a cliff in Week 6.
There are risks in either case. FF is a game about forming and testing hypotheses.
Yes, while Nabers is 6 years younger, he's also a better prospect and athlete overall. It's not out of the realm of distinct possibilities he becomes AJB+; barring injury, it's what should happen.
Anti-ageists are also assuming Brown falls off when he's 30ish. He might be elite until he's 34, or he could fall off a cliff in Week 6.
There are risks in either case. FF is a game about forming and testing hypotheses.
10 Tm Dynasty 1QB/IDP/1.0 PPR/40 Rst
Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 W/T, 2 R/W/T, 1 PK, 3 DL, 3 LB, 3 DB, 2 IDP
2015: 7th
2016: 4th
2017: 8th
2018: 3rd
2019: 6th
2020: 1st
2021: 2nd
2022: 2nd
2023: 1st
Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 W/T, 2 R/W/T, 1 PK, 3 DL, 3 LB, 3 DB, 2 IDP
2015: 7th
2016: 4th
2017: 8th
2018: 3rd
2019: 6th
2020: 1st
2021: 2nd
2022: 2nd
2023: 1st
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Re: AJB v Nabers
Right, and if you trade AJ Brown level players every time there's a player more talented and younger coming into the league you'll end up with a lot of Burks, Treadwell, Harry, C. Davis, etc. type players on your roster.Black Adam wrote: ↑Sun May 12, 2024 4:31 pm A lot of rookie fear going on in here.
Yes, while Nabers is 6 years younger, he's also a better prospect and athlete overall. It's not out of the realm of distinct possibilities he becomes AJB+; barring injury, it's what should happen.
Anti-ageists are also assuming Brown falls off when he's 30ish. He might be elite until he's 34, or he could fall off a cliff in Week 6.
There are risks in either case. FF is a game about forming and testing hypotheses.
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Re: AJB v Nabers
Guys guys, what the world is going on here. Absolutely there is projection, speculation, lean into it - Thats all this is. If you can project success at a lower, early value then you will separate from consensus. If you’re comparing today’s AJB to today’s Nabers then yes absolutely pick AJB and in two years when he is 28-29 and his value is 1 to 2 x less than it is now will not have improved that asset.
Simplified, is contending is AJB. Rebuild is Nabers.
Simplified, is contending is AJB. Rebuild is Nabers.
Re: AJB v Nabers
And here I am, contending but also with an eye on selling for value.SoftwoodGrampian wrote: ↑Sun May 12, 2024 5:06 pm Guys guys, what the world is going on here. Absolutely there is projection, speculation, lean into it - Thats all this is. If you can project success at a lower, early value then you will separate from consensus. If you’re comparing today’s AJB to today’s Nabers then yes absolutely pick AJB and in two years when he is 28-29 and his value is 1 to 2 x less than it is now will not have improved that asset.
Simplified, is contending is AJB. Rebuild is Nabers.
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Re: AJB v Nabers
I sure will.Menace2010 wrote: ↑Sun May 12, 2024 4:38 pmRight, and if you trade AJ Brown level players every time there's a player more talented and younger coming into the league you'll end up with a lot of Burks, Treadwell, Harry, C. Davis, etc. type players on your roster.Black Adam wrote: ↑Sun May 12, 2024 4:31 pm A lot of rookie fear going on in here.
Yes, while Nabers is 6 years younger, he's also a better prospect and athlete overall. It's not out of the realm of distinct possibilities he becomes AJB+; barring injury, it's what should happen.
Anti-ageists are also assuming Brown falls off when he's 30ish. He might be elite until he's 34, or he could fall off a cliff in Week 6.
There are risks in either case. FF is a game about forming and testing hypotheses.
10 Tm Dynasty 1QB/IDP/1.0 PPR/40 Rst
Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 W/T, 2 R/W/T, 1 PK, 3 DL, 3 LB, 3 DB, 2 IDP
2015: 7th
2016: 4th
2017: 8th
2018: 3rd
2019: 6th
2020: 1st
2021: 2nd
2022: 2nd
2023: 1st
Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 W/T, 2 R/W/T, 1 PK, 3 DL, 3 LB, 3 DB, 2 IDP
2015: 7th
2016: 4th
2017: 8th
2018: 3rd
2019: 6th
2020: 1st
2021: 2nd
2022: 2nd
2023: 1st
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