Bryce Young

[FantasyFreak]

What are we thinking about Young right now? I took over a superflex team with him as my QB2 and am looking for opinions on whether I should keep him or try to move him. What is his value these days?

He's not very good in terms of NFL ability, they have a first time HC, their draft looked like an organization that has no clue, because their owner is awful. Young is an outlier, and he's also dealing with the worst ownership in the NFL. He's a falling knife. Get out. Sunken cost fallacy is a very real possibility here.

New system, first time HC, their draft picks don't look like players that can immediately alleviate the situation. His value is likely at it's peak. Whatever that is. He could be worthless in a year or two, or close to, like Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Justin Fields, Trey Lance.

FF is a known Young non-believer. I’ll admit that I have my doubts about whether he will ever succeed at the NFL level too, but I will offer some counterpoints for perspective.

Canales is a first-time HC, but was brought in (at least in part) due to his success revitalizing the careers of Geno and Baker. He will be a positive for Young regardless of experience.

CAR draft was disgusting from and NFL perspective (trading up to take a WR with a lot of flags way too early, taking the luxury RB in the 2nd round when there were other more pressing needs) but it is not an apples to apples comparison of how it will affect Young’s fantasy outlook. Overdrafted WR or not, it is a significant improvement for Young. Add in the Diontae FA signing and the bolstering of the line and he has real weapons this year. They aren’t top end of the NFL, but they are a big improvement.

Lastly, the knife isn’t falling on his value. It’s already lodged in your foot. I have Young in 2 leagues and have not gotten an offer that does not already price him in as a certified bust. Even if you want to sell now is a bad time. Wait until August when the offseason buzz has increased.

Off season buzz can go both ways. Nix is already getting buzz that Young isn't, for instance. I was giving my honest assessment of Young to a new SF owner. I'd be shopping him immediately, personally, if I took an orphan on. He could get hurt, Tepper could do more dumb sh@t, who knows?

[blemly]

He's not very good in terms of NFL ability, they have a first time HC, their draft looked like an organization that has no clue, because their owner is awful. Young is an outlier, and he's also dealing with the worst ownership in the NFL. He's a falling knife. Get out. Sunken cost fallacy is a very real possibility here.

New system, first time HC, their draft picks don't look like players that can immediately alleviate the situation. His value is likely at it's peak. Whatever that is. He could be worthless in a year or two, or close to, like Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Justin Fields, Trey Lance.

FF is a known Young non-believer. I’ll admit that I have my doubts about whether he will ever succeed at the NFL level too, but I will offer some counterpoints for perspective.

Canales is a first-time HC, but was brought in (at least in part) due to his success revitalizing the careers of Geno and Baker. He will be a positive for Young regardless of experience.

CAR draft was disgusting from and NFL perspective (trading up to take a WR with a lot of flags way too early, taking the luxury RB in the 2nd round when there were other more pressing needs) but it is not an apples to apples comparison of how it will affect Young’s fantasy outlook. Overdrafted WR or not, it is a significant improvement for Young. Add in the Diontae FA signing and the bolstering of the line and he has real weapons this year. They aren’t top end of the NFL, but they are a big improvement.

Lastly, the knife isn’t falling on his value. It’s already lodged in your foot. I have Young in 2 leagues and have not gotten an offer that does not already price him in as a certified bust. Even if you want to sell now is a bad time. Wait until August when the offseason buzz has increased.

Off season buzz can go both ways. Nix is already getting buzz that Young isn't, for instance. I was giving my honest assessment of Young to a new SF owner. I'd be shopping him immediately, personally, if I took an orphan on. He could get hurt, Tepper could do more dumb sh@t, who knows?

Are you legitimately advocating for a sell now in case he gets hurt or Tepper does more dumb ish? C’mon. Your honest assessment is appreciated but it has to come with qualifiers and alternative perspectives, especially considering you are a well-known non believer.

[frerichs5]

Off season buzz can go both ways. Nix is already getting buzz that Young isn't, for instance.

I definitely agree with this, it can go both ways. But it’s worth noting Nix is currently in rookie minicamp. Young doesn’t start OTAs for another week. It should not surprise anyone that someone in minicamp is getting buzz vs someone who is not yet.

[remedy29]

Bryce Young KTC value is QB 20 and a late first. I would trade him at that price. On a rebuild team, I may trade slightly lower for a early 2024 2nd.
In a league where I need a QB, I would not pay a late first or a future first.

Dynasty is about maximizing value. If you can get a late first for him now, I'd trade him. If not, I'd hold him. Carolina is still heavily invested in his success and he is a QB.

[blemly]

Bryce Young KTC value is QB 20 and a late first. I would trade him at that price. On a rebuild team, I may trade slightly lower for a early 2024 2nd.
In a league where I need a QB, I would not pay a late first or a future first.

Dynasty is about maximizing value. If you can get a late first for him now, I'd trade him. If not, I'd hold him. Carolina is still heavily invested in his success and he is a QB.

I wholeheartedly agree with this FWIW. Where I own him or in leagues where other owners are trying to sell, there are either no buyers or late 2nd/early 3rd offers being tossed around. Anecdotal evidence sure, but I imagine Young is not going for a 1st in value too often.

[Menace2010]

Bryce Young KTC value is QB 20 and a late first. I would trade him at that price. On a rebuild team, I may trade slightly lower for a early 2024 2nd.
In a league where I need a QB, I would not pay a late first or a future first.

Dynasty is about maximizing value. If you can get a late first for him now, I'd trade him. If not, I'd hold him. Carolina is still heavily invested in his success and he is a QB.

I wholeheartedly agree with this FWIW. Where I own him or in leagues where other owners are trying to sell, there are either no buyers or late 2nd/early 3rd offers being tossed around. Anecdotal evidence sure, but I imagine Young is not going for a 1st in value too often.

In a 14 Team League, I gave up a late 2nd and future (likely late) 3rd. He's trending toward bust, but I loved him as a prospect and thought at that price point he was worth the risk. Some film breakdowns showed he was doing some descent things with timing and anticipation but none of his WRs could get separation outside of Thielen. With DJ and Legette in the fold, hopefully he makes some tangible progress.

[murphysxm]

At his current cost he is a buy for me, his cost is already that he is a flame out. He is not that at this point. He had a horrible situation year 1, he has some more tools but not a great situation year 2, but I don’t think he is dead man walking yet.

[slaughterrt]

Tried shopping him to the Carolina fan for a late 1st but no dice. Will shop him around a little more but it’s looking like a hold and hope scenario for now.

[blemly]

Tried shopping him to the Carolina fan for a late 1st but no dice. Will shop him around a little more but it’s looking like a hold and hope scenario for now.

Very little chance of that now. If he starts off the season terribly, the value will drop further. But if he even starts off OK you might be able to fetch a future 1st.

[thunderTung]

It’s pretty clear that if you invested a 1st in Bryce young a year ago, unless you’re at least getting a 2nd back the value is holding him and letting it play out. Like the 3rd round on is pretty much dart shots anyway.

Selling low this early is just bad business imo

[Cameron Giles]

There are definitely legitimate reasons to be concerned about Bryce Young. Organizations are a key part of developing QBs and the Panthers are a whirlwind of a mess right now and have one of the worst owners and front offices in the league. I'm not sure that Young can conquer that level of ineptitude and chaos.

But, his rookie season was not completely his doing primarily. He had one of the worst situations that you'll see for a #1 pick. You're asking a lot for a rookie to elevate multiple below average groups on offense. The Panthers had no strengths on that side of the ball and the coaching was brutal. I'm not sure how much of an upgrade Dave Canales is from Reich. That said, I don't think the Panthers offseason has been bad offensively, but there's still questions. This was never a one-offseason fix.

- They addressed offensive line in free agency with Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis. Hunt and Moton are at least competent. I'm not sure about Lewis. They still have question marks with Corbett moving to C and their R1 pick from two years ago Ekwonu looking awful at LT and giving up double digit sacks last year.

- Diontae Johnson was a good pickup. They needed a pure separator. That said, the WR group as a whole is still lacking and I think they need a WR with more versatility than Legette in the draft. I'm really shocked they didn't go for Adonai Mitchell, who would've at least given them another player who can beat man.

- If Jonathan Brooks is healthy, he's a notable upgrade over Hubbard and Sanders, but it doesn't matter if the offensive line can't do anything.

It'll be interesting to see how they make this work, but I don't think the jury is out on Young yet.

[MacDaddy123]

At his current cost he is a buy for me, his cost is already that he is a flame out. He is not that at this point. He had a horrible situation year 1, he has some more tools but not a great situation year 2, but I don’t think he is dead man walking yet.

^^^This is where I am. I've already bought 2 shares of BY this off-season.
But then I tend to be a buy low/sell high type of player.

Picked up a lot of cheap Kyler shares last off-season.

[jordanzs]

I had one share of Young. I moved him this past weekend. Single QB league, Mahomes is my starter. I was on the clock at 3.1 and moved Young for a 2025 2nd, and then I drafted Drake Maye. Hope that works out, and if not....I still have Mahomes.

[killer_of_giants]

I had one share of Young. I moved him this past weekend. Single QB league, Mahomes is my starter. I was on the clock at 3.1 and moved Young for a 2025 2nd, and then I drafted Drake Maye. Hope that works out, and if not....I still have Mahomes.

and a 2nd!

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I posted this somewhere, I guess not here. On Reddit, some guy did an analysis on rookie Qb's, and those with a high sack percentage, and then secondarily, those with a low adjusted yards gained per pass attempt, are like 90%+ likely to be a bust. Young happens to meet both of those criteria. The 5 outliers to this were goff, roethlisberger, alex smith, donovan mcnabb, and jeff george.