Why Rome Odunze is the WR2 in the class

[FantasyFreak]

I have 1.02 in my 1QB league, and i'm going Rome Odunze and I think you should too if you're on the fence between Rome and Malik. I feel Rome has a lower risk profile and both a higher ceiling and floor as a WR that can do it all. Here is my comparison of the two...

Odunze

• A true X, and can line up all over the field

• Shreds press coverage

• Physically imposing/contested catch guru (Adams/Hopkins level)

• Good YAC

• Excellent hands

• Prototypical WR build

• Good character

• Locked into playing with Caleb Williams and chemistry is apparent, and will learn from two great WR's

• Player Comp: If Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins had a baby

Nabers

• Bonified slot WR

• Incredible agility/speed (Tyreek like)

• YPRR monster

• LSU's all time receiving leader!

• YAC Monster

• Struggles with press coverage

• Benefited greatly from deep slot targets

• ~30% of production against safeties/linebackers

• Modern WR build

• Questionable character (arrested for bringing a gun to Mardi gras, made a bet publically known at NFL level...)

• Locked into playing with whoever New York rolls out on Sundays, which is not looking great...will not have a great mentor WR in New York, and is in a huge market with lots of distractions

• Player Comp: If Tyreek Hill and Percy Harvin had a baby

My Take: I feel these two are close, but I much prefer Odunze stylistically and feel he has a higher floor/higher ceiling and zero off-field concerns. I'm excited for them both, but Odunze seems to be the full package. Also, if it wasn't clear, MHJ is the clear WR1 in this class for me. So yes, i've planted my flag...I hope for some civil conversation to follow

I like the write up a lot. If I am picking nits, it is that Nabers is not really a pure slot. He ran out of every position at LSU.

Agreed, that stuck out to me too, and he's super explosive, 99th percentile. Not going to waste that on the inside all game. He's very versatile.

The other nit I'd pick, is this. I know it's 2024 and all, but this doesn't seem possible/logical, even in theory.

[gogobradyarm]

I have 1.02 in my 1QB league, and i'm going Rome Odunze and I think you should too if you're on the fence between Rome and Malik. I feel Rome has a lower risk profile and both a higher ceiling and floor as a WR that can do it all. Here is my comparison of the two...

Odunze

• A true X, and can line up all over the field

• Shreds press coverage

• Physically imposing/contested catch guru (Adams/Hopkins level)

• Good YAC

• Excellent hands

• Prototypical WR build

• Good character

• Locked into playing with Caleb Williams and chemistry is apparent, and will learn from two great WR's

• Player Comp: If Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins had a baby

Nabers

• Bonified slot WR

• Incredible agility/speed (Tyreek like)

• YPRR monster

• LSU's all time receiving leader!

• YAC Monster

• Struggles with press coverage

• Benefited greatly from deep slot targets

• ~30% of production against safeties/linebackers

• Modern WR build

• Questionable character (arrested for bringing a gun to Mardi gras, made a bet publically known at NFL level...)

• Locked into playing with whoever New York rolls out on Sundays, which is not looking great...will not have a great mentor WR in New York, and is in a huge market with lots of distractions

• Player Comp: If Tyreek Hill and Percy Harvin had a baby

My Take: I feel these two are close, but I much prefer Odunze stylistically and feel he has a higher floor/higher ceiling and zero off-field concerns. I'm excited for them both, but Odunze seems to be the full package. Also, if it wasn't clear, MHJ is the clear WR1 in this class for me. So yes, i've planted my flag...I hope for some civil conversation to follow

I like the write up a lot. If I am picking nits, it is that Nabers is not really a pure slot. He ran out of every position at LSU.

Thank you. That is true, he is an elite slot with ability to win outside, but I want to see more of him in an X role given his struggle with breaking press coverage. Assuming he learns to use his hands to create seperation at the line instead of getting jammed, he is going to explode.

[TheTroll]

I have 1.02 in my 1QB league, and i'm going Rome Odunze and I think you should too if you're on the fence between Rome and Malik. I feel Rome has a lower risk profile and both a higher ceiling and floor as a WR that can do it all. Here is my comparison of the two...

Odunze

• A true X, and can line up all over the field

• Shreds press coverage

• Physically imposing/contested catch guru (Adams/Hopkins level)

• Good YAC

• Excellent hands

• Prototypical WR build

• Good character

• Locked into playing with Caleb Williams and chemistry is apparent, and will learn from two great WR's

• Player Comp: If Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins had a baby

Nabers

• Bonified slot WR

• Incredible agility/speed (Tyreek like)

• YPRR monster

• LSU's all time receiving leader!

• YAC Monster

• Struggles with press coverage

• Benefited greatly from deep slot targets

• ~30% of production against safeties/linebackers

• Modern WR build

• Questionable character (arrested for bringing a gun to Mardi gras, made a bet publically known at NFL level...)

• Locked into playing with whoever New York rolls out on Sundays, which is not looking great...will not have a great mentor WR in New York, and is in a huge market with lots of distractions

• Player Comp: If Tyreek Hill and Percy Harvin had a baby

My Take: I feel these two are close, but I much prefer Odunze stylistically and feel he has a higher floor/higher ceiling and zero off-field concerns. I'm excited for them both, but Odunze seems to be the full package. Also, if it wasn't clear, MHJ is the clear WR1 in this class for me. So yes, i've planted my flag...I hope for some civil conversation to follow

I like the write up a lot. If I am picking nits, it is that Nabers is not really a pure slot. He ran out of every position at LSU.

Thank you. That is true, he is an elite slot with ability to win outside, but I want to see more of him in an X role given his struggle with breaking press coverage. Assuming he learns to use his hands to create seperation at the line instead of getting jammed, he is going to explode.

Had 9 100-yard receiving games, just two shy of the school record of 11 set by Josh Reed in 2001 … Season totals of 89 receptions and 1,569 yards rank No. 3 in LSU single-season history … His 14 TDs rank as the fourth-highest total in school history … Ranks No. 6 in SEC history for receiving yards in a season and No. 7 in league history for career receiving yards … Caught a TD in 9 games …Now I haven’t looked up the definition of struggle lately but…

[Anteaters]

i love love love this thread!

Informative. Funny. Makes me think. Enthusiastic on all sides. Give and take.

[gogobradyarm]

I like the write up a lot. If I am picking nits, it is that Nabers is not really a pure slot. He ran out of every position at LSU.

Thank you. That is true, he is an elite slot with ability to win outside, but I want to see more of him in an X role given his struggle with breaking press coverage. Assuming he learns to use his hands to create seperation at the line instead of getting jammed, he is going to explode.

Had 9 100-yard receiving games, just two shy of the school record of 11 set by Josh Reed in 2001 … Season totals of 89 receptions and 1,569 yards rank No. 3 in LSU single-season history … His 14 TDs rank as the fourth-highest total in school history … Ranks No. 6 in SEC history for receiving yards in a season and No. 7 in league history for career receiving yards … Caught a TD in 9 games …Now I haven’t looked up the definition of struggle lately but…

You mean the same Josh Reed that never broke 600 yards receiving in an NFL season? I’m not saying Nabers is bad or will be anything other than good, but Odunze is my preference of the two.

[Lumps]

Had 9 100-yard receiving games, just two shy of the school record of 11 set by Josh Reed in 2001 … Season totals of 89 receptions and 1,569 yards rank No. 3 in LSU single-season history … His 14 TDs rank as the fourth-highest total in school history … Ranks No. 6 in SEC history for receiving yards in a season and No. 7 in league history for career receiving yards … Caught a TD in 9 games …Now I haven’t looked up the definition of struggle lately but…

The above would be assuming that he was pressed all season long. Which, we know doesn't happen in college. Especially, when he is guarded by inferior athletes and he is as has been stated, explosive.

One of the analysts at PFF have been on him and BTJ about their shoulder shrug attempt to beat press. It seems like they have been coached to do this. Not sure if this will fly at the NFL level. (None of this is to say I think Nabers is bad, in fact I drafted him in devy last year.)

[DJB]

I never understood why people immediately started fading Odunze post draft due to landing spot.

I LOVE the landing spot tied to Caleb for his career. Keenan may only last one season and DJ Moore will settle into his WR2 spot where he belongs or they may need to move on for cap reasons.

[tstafford]

I never understood why people immediately started fading Odunze post draft due to landing spot.

I LOVE the landing spot tied to Caleb for his career. Keenan may only last one season and DJ Moore will settle into his WR2 spot where he belongs or they may need to move on for cap reasons.

Right or wrong - people started fading it because they don't like the outlook for '24. We can sit here today and say it doesn't matter because we are playing dynasty. But I promise you if Odunze doesn't have a productive rookie season his value will slip. A mediocre rookie season seems possible - easy to see how he is rookie WR5 or lower in terms of season long production. I heard a prominent analyst (redraft and dynasty guy) who said "Odunze got JSN'd" with the landing spot. That says it all. Folks have gotten very impatient. Of course the difference here is Odunze is a better prospect than JSN ever was.

To be clear - I'm not saying this is the right way to look at. All I'm saying is that's why people are fading him. (Explanation not excuse). My take - JSN is a buy right now and Odunze will be too if he dips.

FWIW - I'm not waiting on the dip, I'm taking Odunze at 1.05 in SF unless I need a QB.

[TheTroll]

I never understood why people immediately started fading Odunze post draft due to landing spot.

I LOVE the landing spot tied to Caleb for his career. Keenan may only last one season and DJ Moore will settle into his WR2 spot where he belongs or they may need to move on for cap reasons.

Right or wrong - people started fading it because they don't like the outlook for '24. We can sit here today and say it doesn't matter because we are playing dynasty. But I promise you if Odunze doesn't have a productive rookie season his value will slip. A mediocre rookie season seems possible - easy to see how he is rookie WR5 or lower in terms of season long production. I heard a prominent analyst (redraft and dynasty guy) who said "Odunze got JSN'd" with the landing spot. That says it all. Folks have gotten very impatient. Of course the difference here is Odunze is a better prospect than JSN ever was.

To be clear - I'm not saying this is the right way to look at. All I'm saying is that's why people are fading him. (Explanation not excuse). My take - JSN is a buy right now and Odunze will be too if he dips.

FWIW - I'm not waiting on the dip, I'm taking Odunze at 1.05 in SF unless I need a QB.

Remember the good ole days when everyone assumed a 3yr breakout for all WRs?

[Ice]

Nabers benefited greatly because he is a great talent with incredible speed and can change gears like few in the game.

He can and will play all over the field so if we want to call him a slot or a big lot or whatever, I am buying. He will be a stud year 1.

I like Odunze just fine but he is a tier below the top 2 WR. Odunze shouldn't be discounted because he went to a WR3 landing spot but picking him over Nabers is like believing you actually found the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

Nabers should have 50 more targets this season.

Not sure about the whole Tyreek/Harvin thing but if were going there I would say Jefferson/Chase/Lamb is far better comp for Nabers due to the magic of genetics blended with fantasy.

[Anteaters]

Remember the good ole days when everyone assumed a 3yr breakout for all WRs?

Of the current top15 dynasty WRs, how many broke out before their 3rd year? I haven't run the numbers, but I but at least half broke out in year 1 or 2. Let's say breakout is 1000yds, or a T20WR (total pts or ppg) finish in any given year.

The 3rd year breakout rule is kind of like pumping the gas pedal before starting your car. Generally speaking, it no longer applies.

[Bronco Billy]

Remember the good ole days when everyone assumed a 3yr breakout for all WRs?

Of the current top15 dynasty WRs, how many broke out before their 3rd year? I haven't run the numbers, but I but at least half broke out in year 1 or 2. Let's say breakout is 1000yds, or a T20WR (total pts or ppg) finish in any given year.

The 3rd year breakout rule is kind of like pumping the gas pedal before starting your car. Generally speaking, it no longer applies.

By your definition, 5 of 15 top ppr WRs last season did not meet your breakout criteria. I don’t know about others here, but I’m not willing to discard 1/3rd of that player group because they didn’t meet this artificial threshold.

[Lumps]

I never understood why people immediately started fading Odunze post draft due to landing spot.

I LOVE the landing spot tied to Caleb for his career. Keenan may only last one season and DJ Moore will settle into his WR2 spot where he belongs or they may need to move on for cap reasons.

Right or wrong - people started fading it because they don't like the outlook for '24. We can sit here today and say it doesn't matter because we are playing dynasty. But I promise you if Odunze doesn't have a productive rookie season his value will slip. A mediocre rookie season seems possible - easy to see how he is rookie WR5 or lower in terms of season long production. I heard a prominent analyst (redraft and dynasty guy) who said "Odunze got JSN'd" with the landing spot. That says it all. Folks have gotten very impatient. Of course the difference here is Odunze is a better prospect than JSN ever was.

To be clear - I'm not saying this is the right way to look at. All I'm saying is that's why people are fading him. (Explanation not excuse). My take - JSN is a buy right now and Odunze will be too if he dips.

FWIW - I'm not waiting on the dip, I'm taking Odunze at 1.05 in SF unless I need a QB.

Not you (you aren't of the mindset) but this mentality is something I find annoying in fantasy now. We have a whole host of newer players treating dynasty like they've been told to treat the stock market - churn and trade constantly. Doesn't work for 99.999999% of people in the stock market and doesn't in dynasty either. Your teams aren't your "portfolio." Tired of the nonsense.

And unless you play in leagues full of Tacos, you aren't getting Odunze "on the dip." No knowledgeable owner is going to sell Odunze next off season, when he didn't put up a JJ/Chase season due to a crowded room. Especially, when next off season we will start hearing things about how Keenan is out etc. The whole premise of "getting Odunze later" is reliant upon someone being willing to part with them. He isn't a share of stock. There is only 1 of him in your leagues.

[Cameron Giles]

Not you (you aren't of the mindset) but this mentality is something I find annoying in fantasy now. We have a whole host of newer players treating dynasty like they've been told to treat the stock market - churn and trade constantly. Doesn't work for 99.999999% of people in the stock market and doesn't in dynasty either. Your teams aren't your "portfolio." Tired of the nonsense.

And unless you play in leagues full of Tacos, you aren't getting Odunze "on the dip." No knowledgeable owner is going to sell Odunze next off season, when he didn't put up a JJ/Chase season due to a crowded room. Especially, when next off season we will start hearing things about how Keenan is out etc. The whole premise of "getting Odunze later" is reliant upon someone being willing to part with them. He isn't a share of stock. There is only 1 of him in your leagues.

This is amazing.

[moishetreats]

Not you (you aren't of the mindset) but this mentality is something I find annoying in fantasy now. We have a whole host of newer players treating dynasty like they've been told to treat the stock market - churn and trade constantly. Doesn't work for 99.999999% of people in the stock market and doesn't in dynasty either. Your teams aren't your "portfolio." Tired of the nonsense.

And unless you play in leagues full of Tacos, you aren't getting Odunze "on the dip." No knowledgeable owner is going to sell Odunze next off season, when he didn't put up a JJ/Chase season due to a crowded room. Especially, when next off season we will start hearing things about how Keenan is out etc. The whole premise of "getting Odunze later" is reliant upon someone being willing to part with them. He isn't a share of stock. There is only 1 of him in your leagues.

This on SO many levels.

I'll add one more thing: Most people who get Odunze aren't so dumb that they don't realize there's real target competition in Chicago. In other words, if you're buying Odunze now, it's almost assuredly anticipating that he'll start contributing meaningfully in Year 2. So you're now selling him after Year 1 if he doesn't contribute meaningfully. The Year 1 projection was baked into his draft cost.