Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

[gogobradyarm]

TJHockenson is averaging about 72% catch percentage since arriving in Minnesota. Maybe the coaches/QBs in Atlanta would have targeted Pitts more if he caught passes as consistently as Hockenson? Why keep throwing to a guy who drops passes more frequently than the best of TEs? There is a reason why Jonnu got a lot of targets at TE last year and the reason is not because the coaches were stupid.

Little known fact: While receiving passes from the same QBs as Pitts in 2023, Jonnu Smith caught 71.4% of passes that came his way.
Reminder: In 2023, Pitts caught 58.9% of passes that came his way.
That's why Pitts was not targeted more. Because the coaches and QBs trusted Jonnu more to complete the catch.

If Pitts improves his catch rate, I think he'll have a good chance at a more productive season. If Pitts remains around a 61% catch rate, Cousins will target Pitts less often than you'd want.

I guess you've never heard of average depth of target (aDot) and/or how it correlates to catch %, but you sure are confident in your take!

I'm confident in my take because it's ludicrous to think a TE who averages catching 58% will, during that season, produce a stellar fantasy season.

What most of the Pittsians here seem to miss is several times I have said "IF PITTS IMPROVES HIS CATCH PERCENTAGE HE CAN BE BETTER." Instead, all the Pittsians can't wait to jump in and make excuses for their hero, while also shooting the messenger. What I haven't seen is ONE PERSON here who says a TE can deliver a top fantasy season while catching less than 60% of the passes that come his way. No one argues that because it's a stupid argument. What's happening is people continue to repeat excuses. That's fine, but it admits the truth that Pitts has to perform better to be the fantasy asset many thought he was/is destined to be.

Whether we use statistical evidence or use excuses, we're both saying the same thing: Pitts' fantasy production, especially the last two seasons, has been far below what many people expected he would produce. We all agree that if his fantasy production does not improve, his career will be a huge disappointment. Or maybe I missed the posts where everyone is high-fiving everyone else saying "Pitts won me a championship last year!!!!!" No? Okay, we all agree Pitts stats have to improve before he is a must-have TE.

What we apparently disagree on is some people place 0% of the blame for Pitts unimpressive production on Pitts himself, while I place some of the blame on Pitts himself. Some people think Pitts is a perfect TE as is, and it was everything else that has kept him from being the next Kelce. I think Pitts has to look at the man in the mirror improve a few things in his game (as nearly every player must do) to be more productive.

I agree Pitts has a lot of positive athletic measurables. I agree that if he improves in a couple of key ways that he can be a TE I'd try to acquire. Where I disagree is that Pitts is an automatic slam dunk give-up-the-world-to-acquire TE. He has to show improvement to get to that level.

IF he improves, he can be very good. I hope he does. I have never said Pitts cannot or will not improve. I simply say he must improve if he is to become a must-own fantasy asset. I find it truly stunning that people are arguing against that opinion.

Pitt’s can only increase his catch rate so much when the balls thrown his way are wildly inaccurate. No question, if his role was switched with Jonny Smith, their catch rates would be vastly different.

[Anteaters]

Pitt’s can only increase his catch rate so much when the balls thrown his way are wildly inaccurate. No question, if his role was switched with Jonny Smith, their catch rates would be vastly different.

It's certainly possible several things change in his favor. The QB should be better. He may get a little better catching a higher percentage of passes.

I worry a little that Zac is coming from an offense that hasn't had more than 17%-20% of completions come from the TE position since the current regime has been in place in LA. The LA passing offense seemed geared more to focus on WRs than TEs, with the TEs providing a sort of change of pace in the passing game.

Other teams supporting T5TEs in fantasy have a higher concentration of completions to TEs. Baltimore has been between 25%-42% during Andrews' heyday. KC is 24%-32% over the past few years. JAX was 32% during Engram's big 2023 season, but that number was 23% in 2022 and Engram's ppg average was 30% higher in 2023 than in 2022 when JAX TEs caught 23% of all completions. And so on. Hockenson went from a DET team that had TEs receiving 20% of all completed passes in 2021, to a MIN team that had TEs receiving 32% of all completed passes -- unsurprisingly, Hockenson went from a good fantasy TE to a great fantasy TE. Same TE, but different offensive philosophy and bingo. Then DET replaces its OC and LaPorta becomes a star in his first season.

Zac could certainly have a TE philosophy that is very different than what the Rams have shown over the past five seasons. Or maybe he's absorbed much of his offensive philosophy from the LA braintrust. Or maybe he'll decide that Pitts is the sort of talent who should be a bigger part of the offense, regardless of what Zac's offensive tendencies are. Time will tell.

There are a lot of things that go into a TE becoming a fantasy star. Hopefully this is the year all those things align for Pitts.

[mild]

I worry a little that Zac is coming from an offense that hasn't had more than 17%-20% of completions come from the TE position since the current regime has been in place in LA. The LA passing offense seemed geared more to focus on WRs than TEs, with the TEs providing a sort of change of pace in the passing game.

HC Raheem Morris on Kyle Pitts:

“There’s gonna be a plan to get those guys all involved — particularly him. He’ll be a focal point of what we want to do.”

https://x.com/CoachspeakIndex/status/17 ... 9942116520

...

https://theathletic.com/5276401/2024/02 ... arterback/

Robinson expressed his excitement about working with running back Bijan Robinson and tight end Kyle Pitts but didn’t get into specifics about how they will be used.

“I view those guys as versatile,” he said. “We will have formational versatility to move them all over and try to get the most out of what they do. These guys have done a great job of drafting the right type of people. The offensive line, the skill guys, you look across the board and we just have a bunch of great guys who love football and want to get better. Just hearing the eagerness, I am excited to get to work.”

Both Raheem and Zac saying the right things re. our big unicorn TE freak.

[Anteaters]

Both Raheem and Zac saying the right things re. our big unicorn TE freak.

They are saying all the right things. Let's get training camp underway! Despite my caution, I am interested in seeing if the offense will feature Pitts, and especially London.

[gogobradyarm]

Pitt’s can only increase his catch rate so much when the balls thrown his way are wildly inaccurate. No question, if his role was switched with Jonny Smith, their catch rates would be vastly different.

It's certainly possible several things change in his favor. The QB should be better. He may get a little better catching a higher percentage of passes.

I worry a little that Zac is coming from an offense that hasn't had more than 17%-20% of completions come from the TE position since the current regime has been in place in LA. The LA passing offense seemed geared more to focus on WRs than TEs, with the TEs providing a sort of change of pace in the passing game.

Other teams supporting T5TEs in fantasy have a higher concentration of completions to TEs. Baltimore has been between 25%-42% during Andrews' heyday. KC is 24%-32% over the past few years. JAX was 32% during Engram's big 2023 season, but that number was 23% in 2022 and Engram's ppg average was 30% higher in 2023 than in 2022 when JAX TEs caught 23% of all completions. And so on. Hockenson went from a DET team that had TEs receiving 20% of all completed passes in 2021, to a MIN team that had TEs receiving 32% of all completed passes -- unsurprisingly, Hockenson went from a good fantasy TE to a great fantasy TE. Same TE, but different offensive philosophy and bingo. Then DET replaces its OC and LaPorta becomes a star in his first season.

Zac could certainly have a TE philosophy that is very different than what the Rams have shown over the past five seasons. Or maybe he's absorbed much of his offensive philosophy from the LA braintrust. Or maybe he'll decide that Pitts is the sort of talent who should be a bigger part of the offense, regardless of what Zac's offensive tendencies are. Time will tell.

There are a lot of things that go into a TE becoming a fantasy star. Hopefully this is the year all those things align for Pitts.

I hear everything you're saying and would say good coaches will adjust their scheme/system to their talent. Additionally, Pitts hasn't really been used as a traditional TE, he is used more as a WR with the routes he runs, so all the stats on TE's aren't entirely applicable imo. Additionally, Cousins has been very accurate the past 4 years, averaging 67% completed passes while accounting for 15k+ yards. The writing is on the wall, Pitts is about to fricken erupt in the best way my friend. I hope you get on the gravy train.

[mild]

I hear everything you're saying and would say good coaches will adjust their scheme/system to their talent. Additionally, Pitts hasn't really been used as a traditional TE, he is used more as a WR with the routes he runs, so all the stats on TE's aren't entirely applicable imo. Additionally, Cousins has been very accurate the past 4 years, averaging 67% completed passes while accounting for 15k+ yards. The writing is on the wall, Pitts is about to fricken erupt in the best way my friend. I hope you get on the gravy train.

That's the main thing I wanted to highlight.

Cousins is a really good fantasy machine for supporting weapons. He doesn't scramble to rush, so you know his red zone attempts are coming out. And he has absolutely -fed- his TE's historically, especially when he's had good ones.

TJ Hockensen was 3rd for all TE's last year (2023) with 11.4 fppg.

Both Kelce and LaPorta were tied for 1st with 11.5 fppg.

I'm excited to see it in Atlanta this year.

[gogobradyarm]

A guy in my league made a comment that Kyle Pitts is a miss/bust, with the logic that he hasn't done anything in two years. I'm laughing because he was a top5 TE in 2021 and was a top12 TE last year. Someone that wasn't a miss for him? Last years WR30, Zay Flowers. Lol.

[mild]

A guy in my league made a comment that Kyle Pitts is a miss/bust, with the logic that he hasn't done anything in two years. I'm laughing because he was a top5 TE in 2021 and was a top12 TE last year. Someone that wasn't a miss for him? Last years WR30, Zay Flowers. Lol.

I guess in a similar sense to TE being a start-1 position, and therefore Pitts being startable even if he's not achieving the higher echelons of fantasy scoring for his position...

In most of our leagues, we start at least 3 WR's (or start 2 WR + multiple flexes)

So just like Pitts is startable, so is Zay Flowers as a WR3 with upside...

[RisingSon]

When it comes to Pitts, I am giving him the benefit of the doubt that most of his year 2-3 plagues stem from a debilitating cocktail of poor qb play, offensive scheme, injury, and being a relatively new TE in the league, a position that typically takes awhile to get going in.

We have seen many greater nfl players’ performance suffer greatly due to any or a combination of these factors.

While I’m not comparing Pitts to DeAndre Hopkins in terms of talent or accomplishments, I do recall Hopkins’ 2016 season being a massive disappointment with Brock Osweiler at the helm, finishing as WR30, playing all 16 games. He’d previously finished the 2014 and 2015 seasons as the WR14 and WR4. Then in 2017 when desean watson came was when he began his 4-year perennial stud streak.

DJ Moore comes to mind too. How long was he a yearly disappointment, locked in Carolina behind subpar fantasy qbs, even though his talent was obvious?

Im betting on what I saw year 1 under his best qb so far.

[wickerkat1212]

Price check on Pitts. I need an upgrade at TE in a 1 QB league. Would a 2026 1st be enough? Probably mid to late. The guy also has LaPorta (and I can't afford LaPorta, too expensive, he loves the guy, me too) so maybe he'll part with Pitts for a future 1st? Thoughts? 1 ppr league, no TEP.

[killer_of_giants]

i'd much rather keep pitts over a random 1st in a 1QB league two years from now.

[wickerkat1212]

i'd much rather keep pitts over a random 1st in a 1QB league two years from now.

From MY side I assume you think that would be a good deal? This guy, I always manage to make good trades with him, where I feel like I win most of the time. I have a feeling with LaPorta on board he may take the offer for Pitts. I originally traded Pitts TO HIM for about the same amount. LOL.

[killer_of_giants]

i'd much rather keep pitts over a random 1st in a 1QB league two years from now.

From MY side I assume you think that would be a good deal? This guy, I always manage to make good trades with him, where I feel like I win most of the time. I have a feeling with LaPorta on board he may take the offer for Pitts. I originally traded Pitts TO HIM for about the same amount. LOL.

well then, ask him...

[wickerkat1212]

i'd much rather keep pitts over a random 1st in a 1QB league two years from now.

From MY side I assume you think that would be a good deal? This guy, I always manage to make good trades with him, where I feel like I win most of the time. I have a feeling with LaPorta on board he may take the offer for Pitts. I originally traded Pitts TO HIM for about the same amount. LOL.

well then, ask him...

LOL I'm trying to get a sense if that is fair value, an overpay, or what. From my side, it feels about right? If Pitts is going to blow up, it'll be this year, so if I'm going to get a share, I have to pay up now, most likely.

[Menace2010]

I doubt an owner will move him for a 1st two years away, particularly if you're viewed as a contender and it's "projected" late. But worth a shot. Just don't be surprised if the answer is no.