Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[Anteaters]

But based on this, I think that not only will 2024 rookie WRs with disappointing (compared to fellow rookies) rookie seasons slide, but they should slide. The biggest surprise to me is that JSN hasn't slid further. He's got that Jeudy-like velcro hold on his rookie value.

He's slid pretty far. Preseason last year he peaked at an overall ADP of #17 and is now #44 in 1QB. He'll drop even further after the rookies land. You could argue that #44 is still too high, but regardless it's a big drop.

I didn't realize he had dropped that far. Although overall 17 was a gross overvaluation at the time.

Where does ADP44 place him among WRs on the ranking you're using? I've mostly seen him around WR18-24, which I think is too high by at least 10 spots.

[tstafford]

But based on this, I think that not only will 2024 rookie WRs with disappointing (compared to fellow rookies) rookie seasons slide, but they should slide. The biggest surprise to me is that JSN hasn't slid further. He's got that Jeudy-like velcro hold on his rookie value.

He's slid pretty far. Preseason last year he peaked at an overall ADP of #17 and is now #44 in 1QB. He'll drop even further after the rookies land. You could argue that #44 is still too high, but regardless it's a big drop.

I didn't realize he had dropped that far. Although overall 17 was a gross overvaluation at the time.

Where does ADP44 place him among WRs on the ranking you're using? I've mostly seen him around WR18-23, which I think is too high by at least 10 spots.

WR28. Just ahead of Jayden Reed and Diggs. (I'm using DLF ADP - the work that Ryan puts together). Note: I full expect him to drop further after the rookies land. Guys like Thomas and Worthy can for sure jump him. The big three are all significantly ahead of him already.

[Anteaters]

WR28 is a more palatable spot. Still too high for me, but I'll admit to being ahead of the curve in his devaluation.

[Bronco Billy]

I didn't realize he had dropped that far. Although overall 17 was a gross overvaluation at the time.

JSN at 17 is just astounding. Hard to believe so many bought into the ultrahype going on about him.

[yinzername]

I didn't realize he had dropped that far. Although overall 17 was a gross overvaluation at the time.

JSN at 17 is just astounding. Hard to believe so many bought into the ultrahype going on about him.

i feel like just now, and very slowly, the perception of JSN is starting to balance out. I took a lot of downvotes, tirades, and straight up insuilts giving my opinion of JSN in various threads around the socials this off-season. I think guys like JJZ and Harmon who have piped up recently maybe were enough to make people rethink their takelocks. I get it that it stings to cash out at a loss on a guy someone spent a mid-first on. but man people wanted to kill the messanger on my take. I'm out on him at any cost

[tstafford]

I didn't realize he had dropped that far. Although overall 17 was a gross overvaluation at the time.

JSN at 17 is just astounding. Hard to believe so many bought into the ultrahype going on about him.

i feel like just now, and very slowly, the perception of JSN is starting to balance out. I took a lot of downvotes, tirades, and straight up insuilts giving my opinion of JSN in various threads around the socials this off-season. I think guys like JJZ and Harmon who have piped up recently maybe were enough to make people rethink their takelocks. I get it that it stings to cash out at a loss on a guy someone spent a mid-first on. but man people wanted to kill the messanger on my take. I'm out on him at any cost

I was out last preseason and also didn't get a great response from that take! However at some point, I'm back in. If he continues to drop - which I think he will - I'm buying.

[yinzername]

JSN at 17 is just astounding. Hard to believe so many bought into the ultrahype going on about him.

i feel like just now, and very slowly, the perception of JSN is starting to balance out. I took a lot of downvotes, tirades, and straight up insuilts giving my opinion of JSN in various threads around the socials this off-season. I think guys like JJZ and Harmon who have piped up recently maybe were enough to make people rethink their takelocks. I get it that it stings to cash out at a loss on a guy someone spent a mid-first on. but man people wanted to kill the messanger on my take. I'm out on him at any cost

I was out last preseason and also didn't get a great response from that take! However at some point, I'm back in. If he continues to drop - which I think he will - I'm buying.

what price, like straight up player and/or pick, is low enough to take a shot for you?

[Bronco Billy]

i feel like just now, and very slowly, the perception of JSN is starting to balance out. I took a lot of downvotes, tirades, and straight up insuilts giving my opinion of JSN in various threads around the socials this off-season. I think guys like JJZ and Harmon who have piped up recently maybe were enough to make people rethink their takelocks. I get it that it stings to cash out at a loss on a guy someone spent a mid-first on. but man people wanted to kill the messanger on my take. I'm out on him at any cost

I was out last preseason and also didn't get a great response from that take! However at some point, I'm back in. If he continues to drop - which I think he will - I'm buying.

what price, like straight up player and/or pick, is low enough to take a shot for you?

I think a low 1st to upper 2nd in this year’s draft is probably value appropriate. The problem will be finding a JSN owner who understands the principle of sunk costs. Burning a top 1st rounder for him and taking that hit is going to be too much for some JSN owners to stomach, even with the Lockett news.

[yinzername]

I was out last preseason and also didn't get a great response from that take! However at some point, I'm back in. If he continues to drop - which I think he will - I'm buying.

what price, like straight up player and/or pick, is low enough to take a shot for you?

I think a low 1st to upper 2nd in this year’s draft is probably value appropriate. The problem will be finding a JSN owner who understands the principle of sunk costs. Burning a top 1st rounder for him and taking that hit is going to be too much for some JSN owners to stomach, even with the Lockett news.

I get that this is the cost you would expect to pay if you want to acquire him. My questuion is more to the point that tstafford said he was out, had always been out, but would buy the dip. I want to know when the dip gets low enough for the doubters. I ask purely out of curiosity and becuase I have found the JSN case to be absolutely fascinating and informative for my future DFF process.

for instance, caveat being that I don't want him at all anyway; I think I'd rather throw darts with my 3rds than take a shot on JSN, I'm for sure not giving up any 2nd for him. I have a 3.01, I'm not sending that away for JSN. I have a 3.10, I'd prob pay that price, but I'd feel gross because I've been such a loud anti-JSN stumper for a while now

[Bronco Billy]

what price, like straight up player and/or pick, is low enough to take a shot for you?

I think a low 1st to upper 2nd in this year’s draft is probably value appropriate. The problem will be finding a JSN owner who understands the principle of sunk costs. Burning a top 1st rounder for him and taking that hit is going to be too much for some JSN owners to stomach, even with the Lockett news.

I get that this is the cost you would expect to pay if you want to acquire him. My questuion is more to the point that tstafford said he was out, had always been out, but would buy the dip. I want to know when the dip gets low enough for the doubters. I ask purely out of curiosity and becuase I have found the JSN case to be absolutely fascinating and informative for my future DFF process.

for instance, caveat being that I don't want him at all anyway; I think I'd rather throw darts with my 3rds than take a shot on JSN, I'm for sure not giving up any 2nd for him. I have a 3.01, I'm not sending that away for JSN. I have a 3.10, I'd prob pay that price, but I'd feel gross because I've been such a loud anti-JSN stumper for a while now

I’d offer up that you’ve got too negative of a bias. There is absolutely FF value in a reliable midrange FF WR2, which is where I see him shaking out. I’d absolutely be willing to trade out a midrange 2nd rounder for JSN and I am hardly an advocate for him. Not being willing to offer up even a high 3rd indicated to me that you think he has no value beyond maybe a flex/bye week filler, because that’s what I’m hoping for beyond rd 2 picks, and if I get more it’s all icing.

[jenkins.math]

what price, like straight up player and/or pick, is low enough to take a shot for you?

I think a low 1st to upper 2nd in this year’s draft is probably value appropriate. The problem will be finding a JSN owner who understands the principle of sunk costs. Burning a top 1st rounder for him and taking that hit is going to be too much for some JSN owners to stomach, even with the Lockett news.

I get that this is the cost you would expect to pay if you want to acquire him. My questuion is more to the point that tstafford said he was out, had always been out, but would buy the dip. I want to know when the dip gets low enough for the doubters. I ask purely out of curiosity and becuase I have found the JSN case to be absolutely fascinating and informative for my future DFF process.

for instance, caveat being that I don't want him at all anyway; I think I'd rather throw darts with my 3rds than take a shot on JSN, I'm for sure not giving up any 2nd for him. I have a 3.01, I'm not sending that away for JSN. I have a 3.10, I'd prob pay that price, but I'd feel gross because I've been such a loud anti-JSN stumper for a while now

If you don't want him at all anyway, then why keep asking what his price tag is? It will never be low enough for you or someone of the same belief.

As far as you feeling like the 3.01 is too much for JSN then you will never have a share. Which seems to be totally fine with you, but I'd much rather send the 3.01 for JSN than draft Ricky Pearsall or some other WR you will be staring at in that range.

Now if you are one that likes to dart throw at RBs in this range and you're already stacked at WR that changes the equation a little. The likelihood you draft a player at 3.01 or later this year having the same value or greater as JSN one year from now is pretty low.

[yinzername]

I think a low 1st to upper 2nd in this year’s draft is probably value appropriate. The problem will be finding a JSN owner who understands the principle of sunk costs. Burning a top 1st rounder for him and taking that hit is going to be too much for some JSN owners to stomach, even with the Lockett news.

I get that this is the cost you would expect to pay if you want to acquire him. My questuion is more to the point that tstafford said he was out, had always been out, but would buy the dip. I want to know when the dip gets low enough for the doubters. I ask purely out of curiosity and becuase I have found the JSN case to be absolutely fascinating and informative for my future DFF process.

for instance, caveat being that I don't want him at all anyway; I think I'd rather throw darts with my 3rds than take a shot on JSN, I'm for sure not giving up any 2nd for him. I have a 3.01, I'm not sending that away for JSN. I have a 3.10, I'd prob pay that price, but I'd feel gross because I've been such a loud anti-JSN stumper for a while now

If you don't want him at all anyway, then why keep asking what his price tag is? It will never be low enough for you or someone of the same belief.

As far as you feeling like the 3.01 is too much for JSN then you will never have a share. Which seems to be totally fine with you, but I'd much rather send the 3.01 for JSN than draft Ricky Pearsall or some other WR you will be staring at in that range.

Now if you are one that likes to dart throw at RBs in this range and you're already stacked at WR that changes the equation a little. The likelihood you draft a player at 3.01 or later this year having the same value or greater as JSN one year from now is pretty low.

please see the bolded above, re: your question and my answer

[Jigga94]

I didn't know JSN was in the 24 class

[yinzername]

I think a low 1st to upper 2nd in this year’s draft is probably value appropriate. The problem will be finding a JSN owner who understands the principle of sunk costs. Burning a top 1st rounder for him and taking that hit is going to be too much for some JSN owners to stomach, even with the Lockett news.

I get that this is the cost you would expect to pay if you want to acquire him. My questuion is more to the point that tstafford said he was out, had always been out, but would buy the dip. I want to know when the dip gets low enough for the doubters. I ask purely out of curiosity and becuase I have found the JSN case to be absolutely fascinating and informative for my future DFF process.

for instance, caveat being that I don't want him at all anyway; I think I'd rather throw darts with my 3rds than take a shot on JSN, I'm for sure not giving up any 2nd for him. I have a 3.01, I'm not sending that away for JSN. I have a 3.10, I'd prob pay that price, but I'd feel gross because I've been such a loud anti-JSN stumper for a while now

I’d offer up that you’ve got too negative of a bias. There is absolutely FF value in a reliable midrange FF WR2, which is where I see him shaking out. I’d absolutely be willing to trade out a midrange 2nd rounder for JSN and I am hardly an advocate for him. Not being willing to offer up even a high 3rd indicated to me that you think he has no value beyond maybe a flex/bye week filler, because that’s what I’m hoping for beyond rd 2 picks, and if I get more it’s all icing.

I do infact believe he will be bye week filler with flex upside at best. Is it a negative view of JSN? Sure. "Too negative a bais"...I don't know, when veiwed thru historical statistical rookie performance lens, he looks like there are zero 1k yard seasons ahead. he looks like a perenial 500 yard 4 td kinda guy. he looks like he will be WR3 forever, after DK and Lockett, it will be DK and stud rookie WR 2026, after that it will be WR3/4 on random AFC East team...in my opinion.

But I appreciate this because it is getting me closer to an answer for my question. Even those who agree that JSN is not the stud first round pick we hoped he'd be (yes, we, I was in on his profile predraft, only didn't get a share because I had no picks in his range) the perceived value from the non-JSN zealots is still mid-2nd. hey maybe I can get him as a piece in a deal and flip him again, never know, but I'm not buying him to plug and play, that's all

[trc]

]

I do infact believe he will be bye week filler with flex upside at best. Is it a negative view of JSN? Sure. "Too negative a bais"...I don't know, when veiwed thru historical statistical rookie performance lens, he looks like there are zero 1k yard seasons ahead. he looks like a perenial 500 yard 4 td kinda guy. he looks like he will be WR3 forever, after DK and Lockett, it will be DK and stud rookie WR 2026, after that it will be WR3/4 on random AFC East team...in my opinion.

But I appreciate this because it is getting me closer to an answer for my question. Even those who agree that JSN is not the stud first round pick we hoped he'd be (yes, we, I was in on his profile predraft, only didn't get a share because I had no picks in his range) the perceived value from the non-JSN zealots is still mid-2nd. hey maybe I can get him as a piece in a deal and flip him again, never know, but I'm not buying him to plug and play, that's all

So you think his rookie season was his best career year? Or how is the bolded to be understood?