Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[YouMightDieTryin]

A break from Bears talk.

Dane Brugler two round mock:

1.01: Caleb Williams - Chicago (QB)
1.02: Drake Maye - Washington (QB)
1.03: Marvin Harrison Jr - New England (WR)
1.04: Malik Nabers - Arizona (WR)
1.05: Brock Bowers - Chargers (TE)
1.06: Rome Odunze - Giants (WR)
1.08: Jayden Daniels - Atlanta (QB)
1.17: Brian Thomas - Jacksonville (WR)
1.19: JJ McCarthy - Rams (QB)
1.29: Keon Coleman - Buffalo (WR)
2.33: Adonai Mitchell - Carolina (WR)
2.34: Bo Nix - New England (QB)
2.43: Ja’Lynn Polk - Atlanta (WR)
2.44: Michael Penix Jr - Las Vegas (QB)
2.49: Ladd McConkey - Cincinnati (WR)
2.54: Troy Franklin - Cleveland (WR)
2.56: Jonathan Brooks - Dallas (RB)
2.57: Xavier Worthy - Tampa Bay (WR)
2.59: Malachi Corley - Houston (WR)
2.60: Ja’Tavion Sanders - Kansas City (TE)

Keep in mind that the logic in the landing spot isn't important right now. Just keep in mind the range of prospects.

How do you not give serious, serious thought to Nabers over Marvin if this were to happen?

I know talent>situation, but where do you draw the line when there’s not a huge gap in the talent anyway?

x2.

And Franklin/Worthy dropping below Polk/McConkey seems off. I think Polk is underrated, but not sure I'm vaulting him up that high.

[tstafford]

A break from Bears talk.

Dane Brugler two round mock:

1.01: Caleb Williams - Chicago (QB)
1.02: Drake Maye - Washington (QB)
1.03: Marvin Harrison Jr - New England (WR)
1.04: Malik Nabers - Arizona (WR)
1.05: Brock Bowers - Chargers (TE)
1.06: Rome Odunze - Giants (WR)
1.08: Jayden Daniels - Atlanta (QB)
1.17: Brian Thomas - Jacksonville (WR)
1.19: JJ McCarthy - Rams (QB)
1.29: Keon Coleman - Buffalo (WR)
2.33: Adonai Mitchell - Carolina (WR)
2.34: Bo Nix - New England (QB)
2.43: Ja’Lynn Polk - Atlanta (WR)
2.44: Michael Penix Jr - Las Vegas (QB)
2.49: Ladd McConkey - Cincinnati (WR)
2.54: Troy Franklin - Cleveland (WR)
2.56: Jonathan Brooks - Dallas (RB)
2.57: Xavier Worthy - Tampa Bay (WR)
2.59: Malachi Corley - Houston (WR)
2.60: Ja’Tavion Sanders - Kansas City (TE)

Keep in mind that the logic in the landing spot isn't important right now. Just keep in mind the range of prospects.

How do you not give serious, serious thought to Nabers over Marvin if this were to happen?

I know talent>situation, but where do you draw the line when there’s not a huge gap in the talent anyway?

I think you could give serious thought to it. The draft capital is similar, the situation is probably better. There's likely not a wrong choice. Sort of reminds me of AJG and Julio. I fully on the AJG side and I guess that turned out sort of wrong but it didn't matter.

[Jrblaha]

A break from Bears talk.

Dane Brugler two round mock:

1.01: Caleb Williams - Chicago (QB)
1.02: Drake Maye - Washington (QB)
1.03: Marvin Harrison Jr - New England (WR)
1.04: Malik Nabers - Arizona (WR)
1.05: Brock Bowers - Chargers (TE)
1.06: Rome Odunze - Giants (WR)
1.08: Jayden Daniels - Atlanta (QB)
1.17: Brian Thomas - Jacksonville (WR)
1.19: JJ McCarthy - Rams (QB)
1.29: Keon Coleman - Buffalo (WR)
2.33: Adonai Mitchell - Carolina (WR)
2.34: Bo Nix - New England (QB)
2.43: Ja’Lynn Polk - Atlanta (WR)
2.44: Michael Penix Jr - Las Vegas (QB)
2.49: Ladd McConkey - Cincinnati (WR)
2.54: Troy Franklin - Cleveland (WR)
2.56: Jonathan Brooks - Dallas (RB)
2.57: Xavier Worthy - Tampa Bay (WR)
2.59: Malachi Corley - Houston (WR)
2.60: Ja’Tavion Sanders - Kansas City (TE)

Keep in mind that the logic in the landing spot isn't important right now. Just keep in mind the range of prospects.

How do you not give serious, serious thought to Nabers over Marvin if this were to happen?

I know talent>situation, but where do you draw the line when there’s not a huge gap in the talent anyway?

I think you could give serious thought to it. The draft capital is similar, the situation is probably better. There's likely not a wrong choice. Sort of reminds me of AJG and Julio. I fully on the AJG side and I guess that turned out sort of wrong but it didn't matter.

This is a great scenario for people like me with pick 1.2, as long as you don’t need to start MHjr right away if he slips to 1.2. I’d probably rather have Nabers tho, if the draft played out like this. But at least I wouldn’t have to second guess my pick, as I take whoever fell to 1.2

As a side note; I’m not moving up from 1.2 to 1.1 if it plays out like this

[DJB]

I’ll barf if the Bills draft Coleman round 1.

[Pet_Smith]

No way raiders take Penix in the 2nd.

Now, wasting their 1st on him seems much more likely.... Sighs.

[mild]

How do you not give serious, serious thought to Nabers over Marvin if this were to happen?

I know talent>situation, but where do you draw the line when there’s not a huge gap in the talent anyway?

I read a really awesome post tackling exactly this over on the Dynasty reddit yesterday. With all credit to cjfreel:

I don't really care too much about landing spot when we're talking true Tier 1 capital. Things like top 3 for QB, top 10ish for WR, and First Roundish for RB. I think landing spot should increase the further you get down your list because those are the grades you're less confident in the talent of.

If Nabers goes 6th to the Giants, I would have no problem with anyone ranking him WR1.

He won't be for me. He almost certainly won't be even if he goes 5th to the Chargers which is the most ideal landing spot on that side of the draft.

But I think at certain levels a grade gets so high that you can't fuss about someone taking someone else over them.

--Nabers is one of the youngest players I've evaluated in three years.
--Nabers has ample physical tools
--Nabers was one of the best graded players in CFB
--Nabers had the highest total of explosive plays by far in CFB
--Nabers did this in the SEC, the highest level of Football that exists outside the NFL in the world, sans the upcoming Big 2 Conferences.

Being the 6th Overall pick would put him at tied for the 2nd most Draft Capital spent at WR from 2018 - 2024 (7 years).

That's too high of a grade for me to fuss if someone wants to take him 1.01 honestly in a SF league. Again, this is not something I would even consider. But I'm not going to be the guy standing up and mocking any league mate who takes Nabers under this circumstance.

That line in particular:

"I think landing spot should increase the further you get down your list because those are the grades you're less confident in the talent of."

That's a really sharp way to think of "talent>situation" imo. I hadn't thought about it articulated quite that way before.

[wickerkat1212]

The Bears are really going to pass on Mahomes, Stroud and Caleb Williams for Mitch Trubisky and Justin Fields 2x aren't they?

Talent evaluators in CHI

Right? Burn it to the ground. I was not in on Trubisky, ever. I was okay with last year to see what Fields was. If they pass over CW for Fields, IDK...that's...hard to get past.

Would it better or worse than when Maye ends up being the better QB and CW busts, sending the Bears through another three year cycle of suck, fire coach, suck, draft QB, suck, fire coach, repeat?

Right? LOL IDK.

[tstafford]

Sorry for the non-Bears related topic.

Am I alone in thinking that if Ja'Tavion Sanders lands in a good situation that he could end up as a steal in the middle of the 2nd round in SF rookie drafts? Might be a better investment of rookie draft capital than taking Bowers in the middle of the first.

Assuming he lands well, what's the earliest you would take in in a 12-team, SF, rookie draft?

[YouMightDieTryin]

Sorry for the non-Bears related topic.

Am I alone in thinking that if Ja'Tavion Sanders lands in a good situation that he could end up as a steal in the middle of the 2nd round in SF rookie drafts? Might be a better investment of rookie draft capital than taking Bowers in the middle of the first.

Assuming he lands well, what's the earliest you would take in in a 12-team, SF, rookie draft?

Non-TE prem? I'd say late 2nd is a fair stab at him location. I personally hope he falls to the 3rd. There enough WR pushing him downward to make him a decent sleeper.

[tstafford]

Sorry for the non-Bears related topic.

Am I alone in thinking that if Ja'Tavion Sanders lands in a good situation that he could end up as a steal in the middle of the 2nd round in SF rookie drafts? Might be a better investment of rookie draft capital than taking Bowers in the middle of the first.

Assuming he lands well, what's the earliest you would take in in a 12-team, SF, rookie draft?

Non-TE prem? I'd say late 2nd is a fair stab at him location. I personally hope he falls to the 3rd. There enough WR pushing him downward to make him a decent sleeper.

Yeah. I generally mean non-TEP. Seems most folks don't play in it. (Although I do)

[YouMightDieTryin]

Sorry for the non-Bears related topic.

Am I alone in thinking that if Ja'Tavion Sanders lands in a good situation that he could end up as a steal in the middle of the 2nd round in SF rookie drafts? Might be a better investment of rookie draft capital than taking Bowers in the middle of the first.

Assuming he lands well, what's the earliest you would take in in a 12-team, SF, rookie draft?

Non-TE prem? I'd say late 2nd is a fair stab at him location. I personally hope he falls to the 3rd. There enough WR pushing him downward to make him a decent sleeper.

Yeah. I generally mean non-TEP. Seems most folks don't play in it. (Although I do)

I don't either, but just wanted to clarify before posting an obscure response. Before this year I could see him lasting until the mid 3rd, but after all the success of last years TEs that were grabbed "later" I could see someone thinking lightning will strike twice and grab him earlier than normal too. So to be safe I'd put a late 2nd you'll need. Just going off DLF rankings: McMillian, McConkey, and Corley could leap over him, but at this time it's where I rank him.

[hockeyBjj]

Are there really no tier 1 runningbacks in this draft class?

Not talking Bijan or Barkley generational tier, but like... no Dalvin Cooks? Breece Halls? Leonard Fournettes?

[Cameron Giles]

Are there really no tier 1 runningbacks in this draft class?

Not talking Bijan or Barkley generational tier, but like... no Dalvin Cooks? Breece Halls? Leonard Fournettes?

- PFF had 1 RB in their Top-75 big board (Jonathan Brooks)
- Dane Brugler had 1 RB in his Top-64 mock (Jonathan Brooks) and no RBs in his Top-50 big board.

There's no Bijan or Gibbs or Fournette level RB. There's no Breece or Dalvin Cook level RB. That doesn't mean someone can't become that player. We've seen Aaron Jones become a very good RB out of a 5th round pick, for example. But on paper, it's the weakest RB class in a long time.

The RBs that I keep seeing propped up the most are Jonathan Brooks (Texas), Braelon Allen (Wisconsin), and Trey Benson (Florida State). I've also seem some touting Jaylen Wright (Tennessee).

If you want a potentially talented RB class, you'll have to wait for 2025.

[Mike11]

One RB is going to go top 50 and sneak into the top 8 in superflex drafts. I have a strong feeling we'll see it happen. Hopefully it's not the second coming of Bishop Sankey.

[Cameron Giles]

One RB is going to go top 50 and sneak into the top 8 in superflex drafts. I have a strong feeling we'll see it happen. Hopefully it's not the second coming of Bishop Sankey.

I'd argue it's a guarantee. People are not going to want to draft WRs over and over again, especially in non-SF leagues. Any RB with Day 2 pedigree could easily be propped up, just because of the lack of supply.