Rookie WR Production 2023

[murphysxm]

what I am saying is too many people value him the way they did before the season and I disagree with that. Some people have him as a top 16 dynasty WR, he's ahead of Zay Flowers, DK, Pittman, Higgins, Rashee Rice, Nico Collins, Pittman and Deebo. I think that's bad, I'd take almost all of them over him.

Again, don't think anybody is saying he is top 16 and please don't use KTC as any kind of fact source for rankings. I think you are tunneling in on what you think you are hearing and not necessarily listening. I can A. Still have faith in JSN B. Not want to trade him until I have more data and C. Acknowledge his value has dropped.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Is one game really determining how someone proceeds with Downs in the offseason? That's a really tough sell of logic.

Well, you can look at it as just one game, or you could look at it as an entire seasons worth of games. It’s a high bar but that’s the entire point. If we started “but this, but that” the whole thing would just turn into nonsense.

The data is the data.

How someone applies it logically is what I'm getting at. If Downs has 5/65/1 on 8 targets in the last game, would that still make you think he's unlikely to succeed because of the data? And as a result, trade him and maybe an additional asset for someone in the next tier?

It's just a tough sell.

Yeah, I understand where you’re coming from. But I’ve been more or less blindly following the data for a few years and the only thing that’s really boned me was Claypool. Other than that, I’ve acquired a lot of good players and gotten rid of a lot of overvalued players. I traded away Burks, Bateman, Reagor, Harry, and countless other WRs even when it didn’t feel good to do so, and so far it’s been for the better. I sold Pittman in a few places but also held in a few places where I couldn’t get max value. Both ways have more or less worked out for me. I still have 2 Pittman shares, and I traded another in a package for JJ, and traded another to get Flowers. Even though I traded away a good player I still came out way ahead with all my other trades. And even where I traded away Pittman it wasn’t for peanuts, I got usable stuff in return.

The big misconception is if the players don’t hit the benchmarks to just jettison them from your team at all costs, but that’s not what I’m advocating. Hell, I still have Rondale Moore on a team bc I couldn’t get a 2nd for him. I’m just saying, there’s so many ways to get these players off your roster, I’ve outlined many in this thread already. You can do it in a way that makes sense for you. This is why I think being in multiple leagues is really beneficial, because you can trade some shares away but keep some too just in case.

[Cameron Giles]

Well, you can look at it as just one game, or you could look at it as an entire seasons worth of games. It’s a high bar but that’s the entire point. If we started “but this, but that” the whole thing would just turn into nonsense.

The data is the data.

How someone applies it logically is what I'm getting at. If Downs has 5/65/1 on 8 targets in the last game, would that still make you think he's unlikely to succeed because of the data? And as a result, trade him and maybe an additional asset for someone in the next tier?

It's just a tough sell.

Yeah, I understand where you’re coming from. But I’ve been more or less blindly following the data for a few years and the only thing that’s really boned me was Claypool. Other than that, I’ve acquired a lot of good players and gotten rid of a lot of overvalued players. I traded away Burks, Bateman, Reagor, Harry, and countless other WRs even when it didn’t feel good to do so, and so far it’s been for the better. I sold Pittman in a few places but also held in a few places where I couldn’t get max value. Both ways have more or less worked out for me. I still have 2 Pittman shares, and I traded another in a package for JJ, and traded another to get Flowers. Even though I traded away a good player I still came out way ahead with all my other trades. And even where I traded away Pittman it wasn’t for peanuts, I got usable stuff in return.

I get it with players like Reagor and Harry. Bateman I'd chalk up to injuries more than anything. I think this thread does a good job of highlighting the uphill climb you face when you start out producing poorly, though Reagor not as bad as Harry. It's also why Jameson Williams is someone I'm avoiding despite the talent.

I'd just be more likely to have nuance with players who are straddling that 47y/g mark by a couple yards more/less. Whether they're in the tier below with a chance to go up or vice versa. I get that you're not saying that you'd just get rid of these players unconditionally.

[Mike11]

what I am saying is too many people value him the way they did before the season and I disagree with that. Some people have him as a top 16 dynasty WR, he's ahead of Zay Flowers, DK, Pittman, Higgins, Rashee Rice, Nico Collins, Pittman and Deebo. I think that's bad, I'd take almost all of them over him.

Again, don't think anybody is saying he is top 16 and please don't use KTC as any kind of fact source for rankings. I think you are tunneling in on what you think you are hearing and not necessarily listening. I can A. Still have faith in JSN B. Not want to trade him until I have more data and C. Acknowledge his value has dropped.

Everything you said there is right, but to that end where would you rank JSN? I'd have him top 25-30 still. Maybe this forum has more savvy owners but everyone seems very high on him which makes me feel like that's putting him in the top 20.

[BigJoeWall72]

So where are we at with Zay Flowers? Impressive rookie year, hits some solid thresholds that likely point to a solid floor & a solid ceiling for his future range of outcomes.

First half of the season reminded me a bit of Jaylen Waddle's rookie year - peppered with lots of targets close to the line of scrimmage and a ton of manufactured touches to get the ball in his hands. We knew Waddle had elite speed already, and Flowers has flashed some big play capability as a rookie - is that a solid comp?

There's some skepticism in this passing offense with the lack of volume, but LJAX is about to win MVP and the offense has really found it's stride recently. Even with Andrews coming back, he'll be another year older (recovering from a serious lower body injury), and 1 of Bateman / OBJ will likely be moving on. Plus BAL's defense & rushing attack was about as elite as could be, which inversely limits the number of times an offense will throw. I think there's some sneaky upside for Flowers in 2024 + beyond.

I see Flowers as a solid WR #2 with WR #1 upside for next year - around WR ~15 overall for me in dynasty - too high or too low?

Off the top of my head, I don't think I would move Zay Flowers straight up for any pick less than 1.01 (MHJR). Granted, I have not looked into rookies as much as most of you probably already have, but he's looked very good when I've seen him play. I know he isn't in the top tier of ypg, but I'd still have a tough time re-rolling on a rookie other than MHJR especially since I can see him being the 1B receiving option on the Ravens next year pretty close to Andrews.

If looking at the trading Flowers ++ for a different veteran WR, what would you want added to Flowers for say AJB?

[Bronco Billy]

Damn, there is some seriously great discussion going on here, both in concept and mutual civility. Great kudos to everyone participating. So glad to be here at this board, so much so that I’ve become a subscriber to help support the site.

[tstafford]

Damn, there is some seriously great discussion going on here, both in concept and mutual civility. Great kudos to everyone participating. So glad to be here at this board, so much so that I’ve become a subscriber to help support the site.

Said this since the early days - there's no better way to gain an advantage in dynasty than the DLF Forums. I learn way more from this community than any podcast or article.

[murphysxm]

what I am saying is too many people value him the way they did before the season and I disagree with that. Some people have him as a top 16 dynasty WR, he's ahead of Zay Flowers, DK, Pittman, Higgins, Rashee Rice, Nico Collins, Pittman and Deebo. I think that's bad, I'd take almost all of them over him.

Again, don't think anybody is saying he is top 16 and please don't use KTC as any kind of fact source for rankings. I think you are tunneling in on what you think you are hearing and not necessarily listening. I can A. Still have faith in JSN B. Not want to trade him until I have more data and C. Acknowledge his value has dropped.

Everything you said there is right, but to that end where would you rank JSN? I'd have him top 25-30 still. Maybe this forum has more savvy owners but everyone seems very high on him which makes me feel like that's putting him in the top 20.

I don't do many start ups, so don't really rank this way often. I am not 100% sure where he would land if I put it to paper, but I still think you are equating somebody being high on JSN as overvaluing him. I see him as a long term WR2, with upside. There about 30 WR's that can fit that bill.

[Jigga94]

what I am saying is too many people value him the way they did before the season and I disagree with that. Some people have him as a top 16 dynasty WR, he's ahead of Zay Flowers, DK, Pittman, Higgins, Rashee Rice, Nico Collins, Pittman and Deebo. I think that's bad, I'd take almost all of them over him.

Again, don't think anybody is saying he is top 16 and please don't use KTC as any kind of fact source for rankings. I think you are tunneling in on what you think you are hearing and not necessarily listening. I can A. Still have faith in JSN B. Not want to trade him until I have more data and C. Acknowledge his value has dropped.

Everything you said there is right, but to that end where would you rank JSN? I'd have him top 25-30 still. Maybe this forum has more savvy owners but everyone seems very high on him which makes me feel like that's putting him in the top 20.

Why does it matter so much where he's ranked? How do you rank aging Studs vs promising rookies? Tyreek vs Tank Dell or Addison vs Diggs? It's all wrong imo. Curious if you would change any of these players in the below tiers

Young and Elite
JJ, Chase, Lamb, ARSB, Wilson, Olave, AJB, Puka

Old and Elite
Tyreek, Diggs, Kupp, Evans, Adams

Young and very good
Aiyuk, Waddle, Devonta, Flowers, Addison, Tank, DJM, DK, Tee, Pittman, Nico,

Promising future
JSN, London, Pickens, Rice, Reed, Downs

Older and still good
Deebo, Amari, Godwin, Terry, Keenan, Godwin, Kirk, Hollywood, Diontae, Ridley?

Maybe?
Watson, Jamo, Dotson, Douglas, Wilson

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Again, don't think anybody is saying he is top 16 and please don't use KTC as any kind of fact source for rankings. I think you are tunneling in on what you think you are hearing and not necessarily listening. I can A. Still have faith in JSN B. Not want to trade him until I have more data and C. Acknowledge his value has dropped.

Everything you said there is right, but to that end where would you rank JSN? I'd have him top 25-30 still. Maybe this forum has more savvy owners but everyone seems very high on him which makes me feel like that's putting him in the top 20.

Why does it matter so much where he's ranked? How do you rank aging Studs vs promising rookies? Tyreek vs Tank Dell or Addison vs Diggs? It's all wrong imo. Curious if you would change any of these players in the below tiers

Young and Elite
JJ, Chase, Lamb, ARSB, Wilson, Olave, AJB, Puka

Old and Elite
Tyreek, Diggs, Kupp, Evans, Adams

Young and very good
Aiyuk, Waddle, Devonta, Flowers, Addison, Tank, DJM, DK, Tee, Pittman, Nico,

Promising future
JSN, London, Pickens, Rice, Reed, Downs

Older and still good
Deebo, Amari, Godwin, Terry, Keenan, Godwin, Kirk, Hollywood, Diontae, Ridley?

Maybe?
Watson, Jamo, Dotson, Douglas, Wilson

I’d have Aiyuk, Waddle, Smith, DJM, DK, Pittman a step ahead of the rest in the tier due to a combination of being more proven, better profile, production, more consistent, etc.

I would also have London, Rice, and Pickens above the others in that tier, again combination of provenness, production, etc. Londons 80+ PFF rookie receiving grade and elite draft capital elevates him in security well above guys like Reed and co. Pickens getting a 1k season under his belt is huge for hit rate.

Seems like a fun exercise , I might give it a go

[Jigga94]

Everything you said there is right, but to that end where would you rank JSN? I'd have him top 25-30 still. Maybe this forum has more savvy owners but everyone seems very high on him which makes me feel like that's putting him in the top 20.

Why does it matter so much where he's ranked? How do you rank aging Studs vs promising rookies? Tyreek vs Tank Dell or Addison vs Diggs? It's all wrong imo. Curious if you would change any of these players in the below tiers

Young and Elite
JJ, Chase, Lamb, ARSB, Wilson, Olave, AJB, Puka

Old and Elite
Tyreek, Diggs, Kupp, Evans, Adams

Young and very good
Aiyuk, Waddle, Devonta, Flowers, Addison, Tank, DJM, DK, Tee, Pittman, Nico,

Promising future
JSN, London, Pickens, Rice, Reed, Downs

Older and still good
Deebo, Amari, Godwin, Terry, Keenan, Godwin, Kirk, Hollywood, Diontae, Ridley?

Maybe?
Watson, Jamo, Dotson, Douglas, Wilson

I’d have Aiyuk, Waddle, Smith, DJM, DK, Pittman a step ahead of the rest in the tier due to a combination of being more proven, better profile, production, more consistent, etc.

I would also have London, Rice, and Pickens above the others in that tier, again combination of provenness, production, etc. Londons 80+ PFF rookie receiving grade and elite draft capital elevates him in security well above guys like Reed and co.

Seems like a fun exercise , I might give it a go

No order within the groupings really for me, and I agree London is probably deserving of the young and very good tier.

There's just soo many WR that are good but not Elite. It really doesn't matter where you rank them at the end of the day. Just buy whoever you like that is the cheapest on the market

[Jigga94]

I think grouping players in tiers like that makes it more clear than ranking everyone vs everyone. Then cross reference your lists with the market and go hunting.

Can be a useful activity for the future when someone like JSN jumps up a tier or Nico falls back down to earth

[wickerkat1212]

Again, don't think anybody is saying he is top 16 and please don't use KTC as any kind of fact source for rankings. I think you are tunneling in on what you think you are hearing and not necessarily listening. I can A. Still have faith in JSN B. Not want to trade him until I have more data and C. Acknowledge his value has dropped.

Everything you said there is right, but to that end where would you rank JSN? I'd have him top 25-30 still. Maybe this forum has more savvy owners but everyone seems very high on him which makes me feel like that's putting him in the top 20.

Why does it matter so much where he's ranked? How do you rank aging Studs vs promising rookies? Tyreek vs Tank Dell or Addison vs Diggs? It's all wrong imo. Curious if you would change any of these players in the below tiers

Young and Elite
JJ, Chase, Lamb, ARSB, Wilson, Olave, AJB, Puka

Old and Elite
Tyreek, Diggs, Kupp, Evans, Adams

Young and very good
Aiyuk, Waddle, Devonta, Flowers, Addison, Tank, DJM, DK, Tee, Pittman, Nico,

Promising future
JSN, London, Pickens, Rice, Reed, Downs

Older and still good
Deebo, Amari, Godwin, Terry, Keenan, Godwin, Kirk, Hollywood, Diontae, Ridley?

Maybe?
Watson, Jamo, Dotson, Douglas, Wilson

This is great. Love it.

[Bronco Billy]

I think listing Godwin twice as still good ought to move him up a tier.

[tstafford]

Not to derail this - but I'm not buying that Diggs is elite any more. I wouldn't pay elite prices for him on a contender. Not certain he's in BUF next year and the final stretch was awful. Not saying he's toast - just not elite.