You Should Be Up on Josh Downs

[wickerkat1212]

IIRC Downs had one of the lowest drop rates in this class?

Drop rates for top WR prospects in the 2023 NFL Draft:

1. Kayshon Boutte: 13.8%
2. Quentin Johnston: 8.5%
3. Marvin Mims: 7.9%
4. Rashee Rice: 7.8%
5. Jalin Hyatt: 6.7%
6. Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 4.8% (2021)
7. Zay Flowers: 4.4%
8. Jordan Addison: 3.1%
9. Josh Downs: 2%

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I like Downs, I just have questions whether he can be a #1. And if he can’t, that’s ok. But then pivoting to a guy that can might be the move. Downs reminded me of a mini-Steve Smith coming out of college.

Flowers and Downs stats are very similar but I thought Flowers profiled more as a #1 than Downs. Flowers is bigger, stronger, faster, and a more consistent route runner.

I had that as the biggest advantage for Downs over Flowers. To me, Downs was the better route runner and separator. I think he arguably has the best release packages in this class. His footwork is the best in this class to me. Also, better at catchpoint than Flowers.

Flowers no slouch with his route running though either and more proven as a winner on the outside and more dynamic I think with the ball in his hands. Flowers kind of reminds me of Diggs.

I strongly disagree, because Downs freelances his routes more than Flowers does, and “wastes” more movement than Flowers does. In the NFL, timing is critical. We saw it with Jeudy where his dancing around led to mis-timings with his qb. I’m not saying Downs is a bad route runner, if he’s on the same page as the offensive coordinator and qb then more power to him. But he’s not as efficiently consistent as Flowers, not in my opinion in anyway.

[Cameron Giles]

I strongly disagree, because Downs freelances his routes more than Flowers does, and “wastes” more movement than Flowers does. In the NFL, timing is critical. We saw it with Jeudy where his dancing around led to mis-timings with his qb. I’m not saying Downs is a bad route runner, if he’s on the same page as the offensive coordinator and qb then more power to him. But he’s not as efficiently consistent as Flowers, not in my opinion in anyway.

I don't agree, but film is subjective and sometimes a matter of preference, so no big deal. I also still disagree that Jeudy dances in his routes, but that's another topic.

I don't think Downs dances around in his routes. His releases off the line are very purposeful and most importantly, they're effective. They've translated exactly to the NFL 1:1. The touchdown against Jacksonville a few weeks back was very similar to one of the routes I had in the OP.

I guess it just depends on what you prefer in a route runner, but Downs is winning very consistently right now and hasn't changed his style.

[Jigga94]

Downs and Flowers are both great route runners. I do agree that Flowers has more of a WR1 skillset, but I think Downs can be very productive as a WR2.

[YouMightDieTryin]

Downs is what we wanted Elijah Moore to actually be.

[Diti51]

Guess long term to me. Downs ceiling is Tyler Lockett, but with AR throwing him the ball along with Michael Pittman, not sure Downs ever is more than a low end WR2, high end WR3. Nice piece, but capped upside in that Indy offense.

If debating versus Zay Flowers, I like Flowers more in Baltimore, since competing with just Andrews and not really anyone else
Downs is competing with Pittman and paired with Richardson, who despite physical skills, not as sold on for real football as a passer, not just a weapon. Minshew obviously limited but already far better passer than AR.

[MacDaddy123]

Guess long term to me. Downs ceiling is Tyler Lockett, but with AR throwing him the ball along with Michael Pittman, not sure Downs ever is more than a low end WR2, high end WR3. Nice piece, but capped upside in that Indy offense.

If debating versus Zay Flowers, I like Flowers more in Baltimore, since competing with just Andrews and not really anyone else
Downs is competing with Pittman and paired with Richardson, who despite physical skills, not as sold on for real football as a passer, not just a weapon. Minshew obviously limited but already far better passer than AR.

I agree that all else being equal, I'd rather have Flowers than Downs.
Questions start to come in when you start asking about is Flowers + a 2nd worth Downs + a 1st?

Also, not sure about Pittman's future. Very unusual that the 2019 WR class got traded and/or paid in the summer of 2022.
Yet none of the 2020 WR class got paid in the summer of 2023.

I have heard that the Colts have mode no contract offers to Pittman as of now.
I think they probably sign him on a team friendly deal, but if he is looking for top dollar, Colts may just let him go.
2024 WR class is pretty loaded with big WR's, 6'3" and bigger.

Also a chance that ARich improves as a passer too, but obviously right now, Flowers > Downs.

[tstafford]

I think most people are going to agree Flowers > Downs.

To me the question is Downs or anyone after Addy/JSN/Puka/Flowers. I can't think of a '23 rookie I'd rather have than Downs. But I do think I'd move Downs for a first in SF. I'd rather take a shot at Nabers/Odunze/Keon/etc.

[Cameron Giles]

Currently on pace for 85/1004/4

[Orenthal Shames]

I think most people are going to agree Flowers > Downs.

To me the question is Downs or anyone after Addy/JSN/Puka/Flowers. I can't think of a '23 rookie I'd rather have than Downs.

I think there's an argument to be made for Rice, but overall I'm in agreement.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Currently on pace for 85/1004/4

He’s cooking right now.

I understand this is where we were headed, with the new rules and everything, but it’s still incredible how well so many “smaller” wrs are doing lately. Downs, tank, flowers, Addison, Devonta, etc..

[Cameron Giles]

Currently on pace for 85/1004/4

He’s cooking right now.

I understand this is where we were headed, with the new rules and everything, but it’s still incredible how well so many “smaller” wrs are doing lately. Downs, tank, flowers, Addison, Devonta, etc..

Also, NFL offenses have evolved in general. We're seeing a lot more pre-snap motion, more 3-4 wide sets, better methods of manufacturing touches, and the ways they use players from the slot seem to be more effective as well.

I can't think of a rookie class that's had as many undersized players producing immediately as this one.

[Anteaters]

I can't think of a rookie class that's had as many undersized players producing immediately as this one.

Me neither.
Although I'm sure someone will point out that it happened two years ago.

[Jigga94]

I can't think of a rookie class that's had as many undersized players producing immediately as this one.

Me neither.
Although I'm sure someone will point out that it happened two years ago.

I'm not sure if you were joking or not but 2021 was kind of a precursor to this. They didn't hit to the extent 2023 has though

There were a lot of doubts about Waddle and Smith's size. Elijah Moore was a brief hit. Toss in Rondale Moore and Tutu Atwell and there were a lot of early WR that have turned out alright. Of course, I have much higher hopes for several WR in this class than I ever did Rondale/Tutu.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I can't think of a rookie class that's had as many undersized players producing immediately as this one.

Me neither.
Although I'm sure someone will point out that it happened two years ago.

I'm not sure if you were joking or not but 2021 was kind of a precursor to this. They didn't hit to the extent 2023 has though

There were a lot of doubts about Waddle and Smith's size. Elijah Moore was a brief hit. Toss in Rondale Moore and Tutu Atwell and there were a lot of early WR that have turned out alright. Of course, I have much higher hopes for several WR in this class than I ever did Rondale/Tutu.

Yeah, Waddle, Olave, etc.. but they were still 180+. Before this season, I conceded, and was like, ok, 180 is the new 195. But now we're seeing this year so many sub-180's do well. 160's and 170's.