Rookie WR Production 2023

[CGW]

I'll help you out.

Boutte - easy drop. New England WRs aren't worth anything to begin with and he's what, 5th or 6th in pecking order?

Tillman - If I'm holding anyone, it's him. Day 2 pedigree, looked decent in preseason, and Cooper and DPJ may be gone in the offseason. Still, his path to an impact this year looks very bleak.

Hutchinson - Collins and Dell look like the guys here. 2 targets in 6 games. Liked him as a potential sleeper, but he's looking like someone who will clog your roster.

Very good assessment. I'd add that dropping Tillman would be absolutely acceptable. The odds of him panning out at this point are below abysmal. If you can recoup some value, I'd be happy to move him (or even drop him if there's a waiver wire option you can flip)

Why are the odds of Tillman being a hit lower than it was pre-season? I for one didn’t expect anything at all this season. He was about the long play, and if you have shallow rosters you made a mistake drafting him in the first place.

That's kind of the point of the thread, I believe.

[Jigga94]

Very good assessment. I'd add that dropping Tillman would be absolutely acceptable. The odds of him panning out at this point are below abysmal. If you can recoup some value, I'd be happy to move him (or even drop him if there's a waiver wire option you can flip)

Why are the odds of Tillman being a hit lower than it was pre-season? I for one didn’t expect anything at all this season. He was about the long play, and if you have shallow rosters you made a mistake drafting him in the first place.

That's kind of the point of the thread, I believe.

Right. If you didn't think Tillman was going to hit that 47 ypg mark, then he goes into that 87% bust rate category based on rookie production and draft capital. Page 5 of this thread has the hit rates for under 47 ypg and its not pretty

[Dynasty DeLorean]

So Tillman being a random 3rd round pick would give you these odds

3rd Round
[93 Total] (11 Stud) (3 Good) (79 Bust)
12% Stud
3% Good
15% Good or Better
85% Bust


And Tillman being a random 3rd round pick and not doing anything his rookie season would give you these odds, more or less

3rd round (89 players < 47ypg)
10% Stud - 9
3% Good – 3
13% Good or Better
87% Bust


So the odds do decrease a little.

Now, my assumption for the above is the worse the ypg the worse the outcome. But I haven’t gotten to analyze the under 27ypg group yet. So it could be that doing diddly squat leads to a bigger decrease in odds than what is shown above.

What I mean by that, is if Tillman was averaging 30 something ypg, we might look on that more favorable than what he’s currently at (gotta be between 0-5 ypg I would assume)

[wickerkat1212]

Awesome, thanks.

[Seventy5]

I didn’t draft Tillman in any leagues as I always opted for the TEs, Tank Dell, Michael Wilson, and Hyatt in the 3rd… but I’ll happily add him if dropped like he was in one of my leagues yesterday (owner dropped for Rico Dowdle. 12x25+4 Taxi league)

That offense has been a mess, so I’m willing to give him a pass for the time being.

[Cameron Giles]

I didn’t draft Tillman in any leagues as I always opted for the TEs, Tank Dell, Michael Wilson, and Hyatt in the 3rd… but I’ll happily add him if dropped like he was in one of my leagues yesterday (owner dropped for Rico Dowdle. 12x25+4 Taxi league)

That offense has been a mess, so I’m willing to give him a pass for the time being.

He's been on the field for 45 snaps. I don't think the offense being a mess has any impact on him

[Bronco Billy]

I'll help you out.

Boutte - easy drop. New England WRs aren't worth anything to begin with and he's what, 5th or 6th in pecking order?

Tillman - If I'm holding anyone, it's him. Day 2 pedigree, looked decent in preseason, and Cooper and DPJ may be gone in the offseason. Still, his path to an impact this year looks very bleak.

Hutchinson - Collins and Dell look like the guys here. 2 targets in 6 games. Liked him as a potential sleeper, but he's looking like someone who will clog your roster.

Very good assessment. I'd add that dropping Tillman would be absolutely acceptable. The odds of him panning out at this point are below abysmal. If you can recoup some value, I'd be happy to move him (or even drop him if there's a waiver wire option you can flip)

Why are the odds of Tillman being a hit lower than it was pre-season? I for one didn’t expect anything at all this season. He was about the long play, and if you have shallow rosters you made a mistake drafting him in the first place.

He’s had 45 snaps on O and has been targeted 3 times, netting 1 catch for 5 yards. He’s had a total of 4 snaps on STs. It’s surprising CLE has even carried him on their 53 man roster because he’s doing almost literally nothing with his roster spot. He should be on the PS. But then it is CLE.

[Seventy5]

I didn’t draft Tillman in any leagues as I always opted for the TEs, Tank Dell, Michael Wilson, and Hyatt in the 3rd… but I’ll happily add him if dropped like he was in one of my leagues yesterday (owner dropped for Rico Dowdle. 12x25+4 Taxi league)

That offense has been a mess, so I’m willing to give him a pass for the time being.

He's been on the field for 45 snaps. I don't think the offense being a mess has any impact on him

From Randy Moss saying:

“Cedric Tillman is reportedly thought to be the “best young receiver” to enter the NFL in the past 15 years by Randy Moss. Moss also said it’s “not even close” and that every owner in the NFL should be “pissed” they passed on him.“

…to 45 snaps and 1 catch halfway through the season.

That descaleted quickly.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I didn’t draft Tillman in any leagues as I always opted for the TEs, Tank Dell, Michael Wilson, and Hyatt in the 3rd… but I’ll happily add him if dropped like he was in one of my leagues yesterday (owner dropped for Rico Dowdle. 12x25+4 Taxi league)

That offense has been a mess, so I’m willing to give him a pass for the time being.

He's been on the field for 45 snaps. I don't think the offense being a mess has any impact on him

From Randy Moss saying:

“Cedric Tillman is reportedly thought to be the “best young receiver” to enter the NFL in the past 15 years by Randy Moss. Moss also said it’s “not even close” and that every owner in the NFL should be “pissed” they passed on him.“

…to 45 snaps and 1 catch halfway through the season.

That descaleted quickly.

Lol. Does Moss know Tillman personally or something. Or was he just trying to be like Steve Smith with his Cooper Kupp call.

[Sriracha]

He's been on the field for 45 snaps. I don't think the offense being a mess has any impact on him

From Randy Moss saying:

“Cedric Tillman is reportedly thought to be the “best young receiver” to enter the NFL in the past 15 years by Randy Moss. Moss also said it’s “not even close” and that every owner in the NFL should be “pissed” they passed on him.“

…to 45 snaps and 1 catch halfway through the season.

That descaleted quickly.

Lol. Does Moss know Tillman personally or something. Or was he just trying to be like Steve Smith with his Cooper Kupp call.

The source of this quote is hard to find.. is it even real?

[Shcritters]

I didn’t draft Tillman in any leagues as I always opted for the TEs, Tank Dell, Michael Wilson, and Hyatt in the 3rd… but I’ll happily add him if dropped like he was in one of my leagues yesterday (owner dropped for Rico Dowdle. 12x25+4 Taxi league)

That offense has been a mess, so I’m willing to give him a pass for the time being.

He's been on the field for 45 snaps. I don't think the offense being a mess has any impact on him

From Randy Moss saying:

“Cedric Tillman is reportedly thought to be the “best young receiver” to enter the NFL in the past 15 years by Randy Moss. Moss also said it’s “not even close” and that every owner in the NFL should be “pissed” they passed on him.“

…to 45 snaps and 1 catch halfway through the season.

That descaleted quickly.

Isn’t this a troll quote where you just plug a player’s name in and keep the rest of the words the same?

[Bronco Billy]

From Randy Moss saying:

“Cedric Tillman is reportedly thought to be the “best young receiver” to enter the NFL in the past 15 years by Randy Moss. Moss also said it’s “not even close” and that every owner in the NFL should be “pissed” they passed on him.“

…to 45 snaps and 1 catch halfway through the season.

That descaleted quickly.

Lol. Does Moss know Tillman personally or something. Or was he just trying to be like Steve Smith with his Cooper Kupp call.

The source of this quote is hard to find.. is it even real?

It was on a Sirius FM interview of Moss. Several credible sources quoted it, but I’m pretty sure you won’t find a transcript.

[mild]

I didn’t draft Tillman in any leagues as I always opted for the TEs, Tank Dell, Michael Wilson, and Hyatt in the 3rd… but I’ll happily add him if dropped like he was in one of my leagues yesterday (owner dropped for Rico Dowdle. 12x25+4 Taxi league)

That offense has been a mess, so I’m willing to give him a pass for the time being.

He's been on the field for 45 snaps. I don't think the offense being a mess has any impact on him

If the price is free, and you've got the roster space - then for sure, leave the light on.

CLE have telegraphed their moves pretty blatantly Cap-wise going forward. It's why I was banging the Jerome Ford drum early last year when it was becoming clear he was likely to be the only non-Chubb RB under contract for 2023. They're seriously hamstrung by this Watson contract, and they're trying to roll cap space forward to deal with the 65 million cap hit next year - but it's still going to hurt.

Take a look. Their offensive cap total is set to jump from 116.7 million in 2023 to 185.8 million in 2024.

There is for sure a spot on the outside as the DPJ replacement penciled in for Tillman right now. He's played the most snaps of any Browns WR in 2023, and he's gone in 2024 if we apply some common sense to his FA status + that cap sheet.

NFL GM's are loathe to admit they've made a mistake, they'll always prioritise their guys first. Tillman will get first shot / force-fed into that DPJ role in 2024 if I was making a bet.

If you liked his eval, and you think he might pop once he starts getting snaps, then you should hold. I have no idea if he's actually good or not, and the situation sucks without a doubt at QB - but hey... this is what a free dice roll looks like, right.

[tstafford]

Tillman is a buy not a sell. Until he got hurt in college he was in consideration as a first round NFL prospect. If you drafted Tillman you did so with a long term vision. We're in week 8 of his rookie season. . .

[Cameron Giles]

Tillman is a buy not a sell. Until he got hurt in college he was in consideration as a first round NFL prospect. If you drafted Tillman you did so with a long term vision. We're in week 8 of his rookie season. . .

Don't get me wrong, I like Tillman and he was a very intriguing sleeper coming into the season. And to his credit, still going 3rd round anyway is pretty impressive.

But it's hard to be a good "buy" when you're a 23-year-old who's on pace for less than 10 catches as a rookie. Tillman alrerady wasn't a great analytics profile either, so now you're adding a dud rookie season to that, and the comparables aren't good. He's on pace to having a worse rookie season than David Bell, who's younger and the Browns used a third on last year.

Every rookie doesn't need to go Puka Nacua out the gate, but you also don't want a statistical faceplant either.