Rookie WR Production 2023

[Shoreline Steamers]

And of course, over the rest of the season some of the players in the lower tiers could have a couple "blow-up" games that bump them up and result in a higher finish. And additionally, maybe it's just me, but I was thinking this morning about how much mediocre to downright bad QB play we've seen this year.

Ridder, Pickett, Fields, Z. Wilson, Dobbs, Young, Watson, Love, Jimmy G., Mac, Tannehill, off the top of my head that have disappointed.

That affects a lot of WR's, not just rookies obviously. And kind of spitballing here, but it feels to me like there's been fewer solid QB's this season. I'm not looking at stats, just from watching the games. Maybe great defensive play has something to do with it? I don't know...

[Jigga94]

Ogletree was a 6th rounder last year. Not sure if mentioned already

[Lumps]

Ridder, Pickett, Fields, Z. Wilson, Dobbs, Young, Watson, Love, Jimmy G., Mac, Tannehill, off the top of my head that have disappointed.

Also some REALLY bad OL play. PFF has been discussing this in the past few years - that it seems like OL is falling behind DL and some of the freak athletes there.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Ogletree was a 6th rounder last year. Not sure if mentioned already

Yeah sorry, will edit him out.

As for why there aren’t MORE wrs doing well? I mean, 7 wrs at 47+ ypg is already a ton. Idk about blaming QBs, OLines or whatever else, I don’t think I agree with going down that path.

[Jigga94]

Ogletree was a 6th rounder last year. Not sure if mentioned already

Yeah sorry, will edit him out.

As for why there aren’t MORE wrs doing well? I mean, 7 wrs at 47+ ypg is already a ton. Idk about blaming QBs and whatever else, I don’t think I agree with going down that path.

I think it's a really good looking class so far, it's just not all the guys that were drafted highly.

Last year it was pretty bare outside of Olave at this point. Right now we have several WR in the mid/lower tier, a few right on the edge and then a few more that should jump up as their snaps increase

[Sriracha]

And of course, over the rest of the season some of the players in the lower tiers could have a couple "blow-up" games that bump them up and result in a higher finish. And additionally, maybe it's just me, but I was thinking this morning about how much mediocre to downright bad QB play we've seen this year.

Ridder, Pickett, Fields, Z. Wilson, Dobbs, Young, Watson, Love, Jimmy G., Mac, Tannehill, off the top of my head that have disappointed.

That affects a lot of WR's, not just rookies obviously. And kind of spitballing here, but it feels to me like there's been fewer solid QB's this season. I'm not looking at stats, just from watching the games. Maybe great defensive play has something to do with it? I don't know...

You're really stetching if you're calling these QBs a problem for their WRs IMO.

The only 3 that have really torpedoed their weapons have been Ridder, Field and Wilson. 2 of which have shown signs of life but we'll see how things shake out for them the ROS.

Historically speaking we've seen more WRs hit the 47 ypg threshold than average it just wasn't the names you were (probably) expecting on draft day.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I've been wanting to re-calculate the percentages again. Spent all day on this for some reason. I'll update again at some point to do draft capital analysis. I don't think I made any mistakes but I may have. Some players, if they didn't play in any games their rookie season, they popped up as a "rookie" in a different year. It was hard to weed them out.

Oh right, for the 47+ groups I showed all the players, but I only listed the "hits" for under 47ypg. There's a buttload of busts not listed in the <47pg group. Too much work to list them all. But I do have all the draft capital numbers so I can reference that way for later.

Total sample was 504 players from 1995-2015 that played 9+ games. Number on the left is their rookie ypg, and the number on the far right of each player is their draft capital.
Stud = 3+ 1k yard receiving seasons
Good = 3+ 750 yard receiving seasons

__________________________________________________


67+ ypg [10 total] (9 Stud) (0 Good) (1 Bust)

90% Stud
90% Good or Better
10% Bust

108.8 - Odell Beckham Jr. – Stud – 1
86.1 - Anquan Boldin – Stud – 2
82.1 - Randy Moss – Stud – 1
75.5 - Terry Glenn – Stud – 1
74.6 - Michael Clayton – Bust – 1
74.1 - Marques Colston – Stud – 7
73.8 - Julio Jones – Stud – 1
70.5 - A.J. Green – Stud – 1
70.1 - Mike Evans – Stud – 1
69.7 - Keenan Allen – Stud – 3

__________________________________________________


57-66 ypg [14 total] (7 Stud) (3 Good) (4 Bust)

50% Stud
21% Good
71% Good or Better
29% Bust

66.9 - Amari Cooper – Stud – 1
65.3 - Eddie Royal – Bust – 2
64.9 - Joey Galloway – Stud – 1
63.0 - Kelvin Benjamin – Bust – 1
62.2 - Dwayne Bowe – Stud – 1
61.6 - Eddie Kennison – Good – 1
61.6 - Kevin Johnson – Bust – 2
61.4 - Sammy Watkins – Bust – 1
61.0 - Andre Johnson – Stud – 1
60.3 - Keyshawn Johnson – Stud – 1
60.3 - Mike Williams (TB) – Good – 4
58.4 - Roy Williams – Good – 1
57.4 - T.Y. Hilton – Stud – 3
57.0 - DeSean Jackson – Stud – 2

__________________________________________________


47-56 ypg [28 Total] (10 Stud) (11 Good) (7 Bust)

36% Stud
75% Good or Better
25% Bust

56.4 - Hakeem Nicks – Good – 1
55.4 - Stefon Diggs – Stud – 5
55.2 - Chris Chambers – Good – 2
55.2 - Frank Sanders – Good – 2
55.0 - Brandin Cooks – Stud – 1
54.9 - Martavis Bryant – Bust – 4
54.8 - Allen Robinson – Stud – 2
54.5 - Jordan Matthews – Good – 2
54.1 - Justin Blackmon – Bust – 1
52.7 - Lee Evans – Good – 1
52.7 - Percy Harvin – Good – 1
52.6 - Torrey Smith – Good – 2
52.3 - Marvin Harrison – Stud – 1
51.5 - Jeremy Maclin – Good – 1
51.5 - Santonio Holmes – Good – 1
51.4 - Chris Sanders – Bust – 3
51.2 - Braylon Edwards – Good – 1
50.4 - Calvin Johnson – Stud – 1
50.3 - Keary Colbert – Bust – 2
50.3 - Josh Gordon – Bust – SUPP/UDFA
50.1 - DeAndre Hopkins – Stud – 1
49.3 - Torry Holt – Stud – 1
49.3 - Doug Baldwin – Good – UDFA
48.8 - Larry Fitzgerald – Stud – 1
47.5 - Michael Westbrook – Bust – 1
47.5 - Denarius Moore – Bust – 5
47.4 - Jarvis Landry – Stud – 2
47.3 - Mike Wallace – Stud – 3

__________________________________________________


Less Than 47 ypg [451 total] (28 Stud) (22 Good) (401 Bust)

6% Stud
11% Good or Better
89% Bust

*I only listed the hits for this group

46.8 - Dez Bryant – Stud – 1
45.8 - Antonio Bryant – Good – 2
45.4 - Wayne Chrebet – Good – UDFA
45.2 - Muhsin Muhammad – Stud – 2
45.1 - Greg Jennings – Stud – 2
44.6 - Darrell Jackson – Stud – 3
42.3 - James Jones – Good – 3
41.9 - Robert Woods – Good – 2
41.5 - Tyler Lockett – Stud – 3
37.6 - Deion Branch – Good – 2
36.7 - Alshon Jeffery – Good – 2
35.1 - Michael Floyd – Good – 1
34.6 - Devone Bess – Good – UDFA
32.6 - Julian Edelman – Stud – 7
32.5 - Terrell Owens – Stud – 3
29.6 - David Boston – Good – 1
28.9 - Emmanuel Sanders – Stud – 3
28.5 - Laveranues Coles – Stud – 3
28.4 - Nate Burleson – Good – 3
28.3 - Demaryius Thomas – Stud – 1
27.9 - Roddy White – Stud – 1
27.9 - Davante Adams – Stud – 2
26.5 - Reggie Wayne – Stud – 1
27.4 - Chad Johnson – Stud – 2
26.3 - Ted Ginn Jr. – Good – 1
25.0 - Randall Cobb – Good – 2
24.6 - Peerless Price – Good – 2
24.3 - Bobby Engram – Good – 2
22.9 - Jordy Nelson – Stud – 2
22.8 - Plaxico Burress – Stud – 1
20.6 - Golden Tate – Stud – 2
20.6 - Brandon Marshall – Stud – 4
19.0 - T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Good – 7
18.6 - Antonio Brown – Stud – 6
18.3 - Marvin Jones – Good – 5
17.4 - Eric Moulds – Stud – 1
15.4 - Hines Ward – Stud – 3
14.1 - Bernard Berrian – Good – 3
13.3 - Brandon Lloyd – Good – 4
12.8 - Cole Beasley – Good – UDFA
11.6 - Derrick Mason – Stud – 4
10.3 - Steve Smith – Stud – 3
9.6 - Antonio Freeman – Stud – 3
9.3 - Steve Johnson – Stud – 7
7.6 - Eric Decker – Stud – 3
5.0 - Jerricho Cotchery – Good – 4
3.3 - Joe Horn – Stud – 5
1.6 - Pierre Garcon – Good – 6
0.0 - Wes Welker – Stud – UDFA
0.0 - Miles Austin – Good – UDFA

[Jrblaha]

Starting to have less faith in this than previously. I’m seeing some downright head scratching decisions that are negatively impacting some of these guys.

It's informative, but ultimately it's still just one piece of a puzzle you can use to build an opinion about players. There are other indicators out here that don't involve y/g that you can use along with it.

This. It’s still an incredibly useful piece of the puzzle imo. Love it btw DD, thanks so much for doing this

[Bronco Billy]

Ogletree was a 6th rounder last year. Not sure if mentioned already

Yeah sorry, will edit him out.

As for why there aren’t MORE wrs doing well? I mean, 7 wrs at 47+ ypg is already a ton. Idk about blaming QBs, OLines or whatever else, I don’t think I agree with going down that path.

Not sure how WRs are not the most dependent players on the field for their success, and that dependence goes directly to the QB and maybe the HC/OC and indirectly to the Oline that affects the QB.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Ogletree was a 6th rounder last year. Not sure if mentioned already

Yeah sorry, will edit him out.

As for why there aren’t MORE wrs doing well? I mean, 7 wrs at 47+ ypg is already a ton. Idk about blaming QBs, OLines or whatever else, I don’t think I agree with going down that path.

Not sure how WRs are not the most dependent players on the field for their success, and that dependence goes directly to the QB and maybe the HC/OC and indirectly to the Oline that affects the QB.

Yeah, I mean just playing the blame game in general, in Dynasty FF. You can find excuses for literally any player if you really wanted to. Not saying your QB criticisms aren't valid, I'm just saying it's not something I really recommend for people to do.

[Bronco Billy]

Got it. Appreciate the discussions. Thanks

[Menace2010]

I've been wanting to re-calculate the percentages again. Spent all day on this for some reason. I'll update again at some point to do draft capital analysis. I don't think I made any mistakes but I may have. Some players, if they didn't play in any games their rookie season, they popped up as a "rookie" in a different year. It was hard to weed them out.

Oh right, for the 47+ groups I showed all the players, but I only listed the "hits" for under 47ypg. There's a buttload of busts not listed in the <47pg group. Too much work to list them all. But I do have all the draft capital numbers so I can reference that way for later.

Total sample was 504 players from 1995-2015 that played 9+ games. Number on the left is their rookie ypg, and the number on the far right of each player is their draft capital.
Stud = 3+ 1k yard receiving seasons
Good = 3+ 750 yard receiving seasons

__________________________________________________


67+ ypg [10 total] (9 Stud) (0 Good) (1 Bust)

90% Stud
90% Good or Better
10% Bust

108.8 - Odell Beckham Jr. – Stud – 1
86.1 - Anquan Boldin – Stud – 2
82.1 - Randy Moss – Stud – 1
75.5 - Terry Glenn – Stud – 1
74.6 - Michael Clayton – Bust – 1
74.1 - Marques Colston – Stud – 7
73.8 - Julio Jones – Stud – 1
70.5 - A.J. Green – Stud – 1
70.1 - Mike Evans – Stud – 1
69.7 - Keenan Allen – Stud – 3

__________________________________________________


57-66 ypg [15 total] (7 Stud) (4 Good) (4 Bust)

47% Stud
73% Good or Better
27% Bust

66.9 - Amari Cooper – Stud – 1
65.3 - Eddie Royal – Bust – 2
64.9 - Joey Galloway – Stud – 1
63.0 - Kelvin Benjamin – Bust – 1
62.2 - Dwayne Bowe – Stud – 1
61.6 - Eddie Kennison – Good – 1
61.6 - Kevin Johnson – Bust – 2
61.4 - Sammy Watkins – Bust – 1
61.0 - Andre Johnson – Stud – 1
60.3 - Keyshawn Johnson – Stud – 1
60.3 - Mike Williams (TB) – Good – 4
58.4 - Roy Williams – Good – 1
57.4 - T.Y. Hilton – Stud – 3
57.0 - DeSean Jackson – Stud – 2
55.2 - Chris Chambers – Good – 2

__________________________________________________


47-56 ypg [28 Total] (10 Stud) (11 Good) (7 Bust)

36% Stud
75% Good or Better
25% Bust

56.4 - Hakeem Nicks – Good – 1
55.4 - Stefon Diggs – Stud – 5
55.2 - Chris Chambers – Good – 2
55.2 - Frank Sanders – Good – 2
55.0 - Brandin Cooks – Stud – 1
54.9 - Martavis Bryant – Bust – 4
54.8 - Allen Robinson – Stud – 2
54.5 - Jordan Matthews – Good – 2
54.1 - Justin Blackmon – Bust – 1
52.7 - Lee Evans – Good – 1
52.7 - Percy Harvin – Good – 1
52.6 - Torrey Smith – Good – 2
52.3 - Marvin Harrison – Stud – 1
51.5 - Jeremy Maclin – Good – 1
51.5 - Santonio Holmes – Good – 1
51.4 - Chris Sanders – Bust – 3
51.2 - Braylon Edwards – Good – 1
50.4 - Calvin Johnson – Stud – 1
50.3 - Keary Colbert – Bust – 2
50.3 - Josh Gordon – Bust – SUPP/UDFA
50.1 - DeAndre Hopkins – Stud – 1
49.3 - Torry Holt – Stud – 1
49.3 - Doug Baldwin – Good – UDFA
48.8 - Larry Fitzgerald – Stud – 1
47.5 - Michael Westbrook – Bust – 1
47.5 - Denarius Moore – Bust – 5
47.4 - Jarvis Landry – Stud – 2
47.3 - Mike Wallace – Stud – 3

__________________________________________________


Less Than 47 ypg [451 total] (28 Stud) (22 Good) (401 Bust)

6% Stud
11% Good or Better
89% Bust

*I only listed the hits for this group

46.8 - Dez Bryant – Stud – 1
45.8 - Antonio Bryant – Good – 2
45.4 - Wayne Chrebet – Good – UDFA
45.2 - Muhsin Muhammad – Stud – 2
45.1 - Greg Jennings – Stud – 2
44.6 - Darrell Jackson – Stud – 3
42.3 - James Jones – Good – 3
41.9 - Robert Woods – Good – 2
41.5 - Tyler Lockett – Stud – 3
37.6 - Deion Branch – Good – 2
36.7 - Alshon Jeffery – Good – 2
35.1 - Michael Floyd – Good – 1
34.6 - Devone Bess – Good – UDFA
32.6 - Julian Edelman – Stud – 7
32.5 - Terrell Owens – Stud – 3
29.6 - David Boston – Good – 1
28.9 - Emmanuel Sanders – Stud – 3
28.5 - Laveranues Coles – Stud – 3
28.4 - Nate Burleson – Good – 3
28.3 - Demaryius Thomas – Stud – 1
27.9 - Roddy White – Stud – 1
27.9 - Davante Adams – Stud – 2
26.5 - Reggie Wayne – Stud – 1
27.4 - Chad Johnson – Stud – 2
26.3 - Ted Ginn Jr. – Good – 1
25.0 - Randall Cobb – Good – 2
24.6 - Peerless Price – Good – 2
24.3 - Bobby Engram – Good – 2
22.9 - Jordy Nelson – Stud – 2
22.8 - Plaxico Burress – Stud – 1
20.6 - Golden Tate – Stud – 2
20.6 - Brandon Marshall – Stud – 4
19.0 - T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Good – 7
18.6 - Antonio Brown – Stud – 6
18.3 - Marvin Jones – Good – 5
17.4 - Eric Moulds – Stud – 1
15.4 - Hines Ward – Stud – 3
14.1 - Bernard Berrian – Good – 3
13.3 - Brandon Lloyd – Good – 4
12.8 - Cole Beasley – Good – UDFA
11.6 - Derrick Mason – Stud – 4
10.3 - Steve Smith – Stud – 3
9.6 - Antonio Freeman – Stud – 3
9.3 - Steve Johnson – Stud – 7
7.6 - Eric Decker – Stud – 3
5.0 - Jerricho Cotchery – Good – 4
3.3 - Joe Horn – Stud – 5
1.6 - Pierre Garcon – Good – 6
0.0 - Wes Welker – Stud – UDFA
0.0 - Miles Austin – Good – UDFA

Useful reminder that if a WR is drafted outside the top 3 rounds, the odds they succeed or extremely low... I didn't add them all up, but it looks like 22 TOTAL.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Useful reminder that if a WR is drafted outside the top 3 rounds, the odds they succeed or extremely low... I didn't add them all up, but it looks like 22 TOTAL.

WRs Drafted by Round (1995-2015)
1st Round – 84 Total
2nd Round – 88 Total
3rd Round – 93 Total
4th Round – 88 Total
5th Round – 84 Total
6th Round – 103 Total
7th Round – 128 Total
TOTAL - 668 WR's Drafted

So this is ALL WR's drafted (668 players), and my sample (504 players) only uses players who played in 9 or more games. So uh, not sure how to reconcile that without doing a lot more work, but yeah... Either way, the hit rate is abysmal.

I had come up with these numbers last year..

____________________________________
*Hit = 3+ 1k yard receiving seasons
____________________________________

Hit rate
-- 26% -- 1st round WRs [25 of 95]

-- 12% -- 2nd round WRs [13 of 113]
-- 11% -- 3rd round WRs [12 of 105]

--- 2% -- 4th round WRs [2 of 105]
--- 3% -- 5th round WRs [3 of 87]
--- 1% -- 6th round WRs [1 of 94]
--- 4% -- 7th round WRs [4 of 100]



Hit Rate
-- 28% -- 1st round WRs | 9+ games as a rookie [24 of 85]
-- 10% -- 1st round WRs | < 9 games as a rookie [1 of 10]

-- 12% -- 2nd round WRs | 9+ games as a rookie [11 of 93]
-- 12% -- 2nd round WRs | < 9 games as a rookie [2 of 17]

-- 16% -- 3rd round WRs | 9+ games as a rookie [12 of 73]
--- 0% -- 3rd round WRs | < 9 games as a rookie [0 of 30]

[Dynasty DeLorean]

*I will edit all this into the main post at some point

Researched and re-calculated all the hit rates for draft round this morning. This is ignoring YPG. This is for all players drafted from 1995-2015. This really highlights how what Puka is doing is outrageous.

Kind of interesting how any player from the 47ypg+ group is a much better bet than a future unknown top 10 drafted rookie.


1st Round

Overall
29% Stud
14% Good
43% Good or Better
57% Bust

Top 10
[33 Total] (12 Stud) (5 Good) (16 Bust)
36% Stud
15% Good
52% Good or Better
48% Bust

11-32
[51 total] (12 Stud) (7 Good) (32 Bust)
24% Stud
14% Good
37% Good or Better
63% Bust


2nd Round
[88 Total] (12 Stud) (11 Good) (65 Bust)
14% Stud
13% Good
26% Good or Better
74% Bust


3rd Round
[93 Total] (11 Stud) (3 Good) (79 Bust)
12% Stud
3% Good
15% Good or Better
85% Bust


4th Round
[88 Total] (2 Stud) (3 Good) (83 Bust)
2% Stud
3% Good
6% Good or Better
94% Bust


5th Round
[84 Total] (2 Stud) (1 Good) (81 Bust)
2% Stud
1% Good
4% Good or Better
96% Bust


6th Round
[103 Total] (1 Stud) (2 Good) (100 Bust)
1% Stud
2% Good
3% Good or Better
97% Bust


7th Round
[128 Total] (4 Stud) (1 Good) (123 Bust)
3% Stud
1% Good
4% Good or Better
96% Bust



________________________________________________________


I found some slight errors in the hit rate by YPG. I also added the hit rate for the grouping 37-46 ypg. It's better than I originally thought after correcting some errors. Here are the updated hit rates:


67+ (10 total) (9 Stud) (1 Bust)

90% Stud
0% Good
90% Good or Better
10% Bust

108.8 - Odell Beckham Jr. – Stud – 1
86.1 - Anquan Boldin – Stud – 2
82.1 - Randy Moss – Stud – 1
75.5 - Terry Glenn – Stud – 1
74.6 - Michael Clayton – Bust – 1
74.1 - Marques Colston – Stud – 7
73.8 - Julio Jones – Stud – 1
70.5 - A.J. Green – Stud – 1
70.1 - Mike Evans – Stud – 1
69.7 - Keenan Allen – Stud – 3




57-66 (14 total) (7 Stud) (3 Good) (4 Bust)

50% Stud
21% Good
71% Good or Better
29% Bust

66.9 - Amari Cooper – Stud – 1
65.3 - Eddie Royal – Bust – 2
64.9 - Joey Galloway – Stud – 1
63.0 - Kelvin Benjamin – Bust – 1
62.2 - Dwayne Bowe – Stud – 1
61.6 - Eddie Kennison – Good – 1
61.6 - Kevin Johnson – Bust – 2
61.4 - Sammy Watkins – Bust – 1
61.0 - Andre Johnson – Stud – 1
60.3 - Keyshawn Johnson – Stud – 1
60.3 - Mike Williams (TB) – Good – 4
58.4 - Roy Williams – Good – 1
57.4 - T.Y. Hilton – Stud – 3
57.0 - DeSean Jackson – Stud – 2




47-56 (29 Total) (10 Studs) (12 Good) (7 Bust)

34% Stud
41% Good
76% Good or Better
24% Bust

56.8 – Michael Crabtree – Good - 1
56.4 - Hakeem Nicks – Good – 1
55.4 - Stefon Diggs – Stud – 5
55.2 - Chris Chambers – Good – 2
55.2 - Frank Sanders – Good – 2
55.0 - Brandin Cooks – Stud – 1
54.9 - Martavis Bryant – Bust – 4
54.8 - Allen Robinson – Stud – 2
54.5 - Jordan Matthews – Good – 2
54.1 - Justin Blackmon – Bust – 1
52.7 - Lee Evans – Good – 1
52.7 - Percy Harvin – Good – 1
52.6 - Torrey Smith – Good – 2
52.3 - Marvin Harrison – Stud – 1
51.5 - Jeremy Maclin – Good – 1
51.5 - Santonio Holmes – Good – 1
51.4 - Chris Sanders – Bust – 3
51.2 - Braylon Edwards – Good – 1
50.4 - Calvin Johnson – Stud – 1
50.3 - Keary Colbert – Bust – 2
50.3 - Josh Gordon – Bust – SUPP/UDFA
50.1 - DeAndre Hopkins – Stud – 1
49.3 - Torry Holt – Stud – 1
49.3 - Doug Baldwin – Good – UDFA
48.8 - Larry Fitzgerald – Stud – 1
47.5 - Michael Westbrook – Bust – 1
47.5 - Denarius Moore – Bust – 5
47.4 - Jarvis Landry – Stud – 2
47.3 - Mike Wallace – Stud – 3




37-46 [39 Total] (5 Stud) (5 Good) (29 Bust)

13% Stud
13% Good
26% Good or Better
74% Bust

46.8 - Dez Bryant – Stud – 1
46.5 – Chris Givens – Bust – 4
46.3 – Rod Gardner – Bust – 1
46.0 - Terrance Williams – Bust – 3
45.8 - Antonio Bryant – Good – 2
45.7 – Donte’ Stallworth - Bust – 1
45.4 - Wayne Chrebet – Good – UDFA
45.2 - Muhsin Muhammad – Stud – 2
45.2 – Sylvester Morris – Bust – 1
45.1 - Greg Jennings – Stud – 2
44.9 – Donnie Avery – Bust – 2
44.6 – Troy Edwards – Bust – 1
44.6 - Darrell Jackson – Stud – 3
44.3 – Greg Little – Bust – 2
44.3 – Anthony Gonzalez – Bust – 1
43.8 – Kenny Britt – Bust – 1
43.5 – John Brown – Bust – 3
43.3 – Aaron Dobson – Bust – 2
43.1 – Tony Simmons – Bust – 2
43.1 – J.J. Stokes – Bust – 1
42.3 – Allen Hurns - Bust – UDFA
42.3 – Austin Collie – Bust – 4
42.3 - James Jones – Good – 3
41.9 - Robert Woods – Good – 2
41.7 – Kendall Wright – Bust – 1
41.5 - Tyler Lockett – Stud – 3
40.2 – Jason McAddley – Bust – 5
40.1 – Kenny Stills – Bust – 5
40.0 – Jordan Shipley – Bust – 3
39.3 – Snoop Minnis – Bust – 3
39.0 – Mohamed Massaquoi – Bust – 2
38.8 – Kenbrell Thompkins – Bust – UDFA
38.8 – Taylor Gabriel – Bust – UDFA
37.9 – Titus Young – Bust – 2
37.8 – Jamison Crowder – Bust – 4
37.6 - Deion Branch – Good – 2
37.4 – Marlon Brown – Bust – UDFA
37.4 – Charlie Jones – Bust – 4
37.0 – Peter Warrick – Bust – 1




27-36 [61 Total] (8 Stud) (5 Good) (48 Bust)

13% Stud
8% Good
21% Good or Better
79% Bust

36.7 - Alshon Jeffery – Good - 2
36.5 – Rod Streater – Bust - UDFA
36.3 – Rae Carruth – Bust - 1
35.7 – Reggie Brown – Bust - 2
35.3 – Terrence Wilkins – Bust - UDFA
35.3 – DeVante Parker – Bust - 1
35.1 – Johnny Knox – Bust - 5
35.1 – Michael Floyd – Good - 1
34.8 – Brandon Gibson – Bust - 6
34.6 – Davone Bess – Good - UDFA
34.3 – Dorial Green-Beckham – Bust - 2
33.9 – David Gettis – Bust - 6
33.8 – Justin Gage – Bust - 5
33.6 – Mark Clayton – Bust - 1
33.5 – Koren Robinson – Bust - 1
33.4 – Brandon LaFell – Bust - 3
33.1 – Germane Crowell – Bust - 2
32.8 – Ashley Lelie – Bust - 1
32.6 – Julian Edelman – Stud - 7
32.6 – Louis Murphy – Bust - 4
32.5 – Terrell Owens – Stud - 3
32.5 – Marqise Lee – Bust - 2
32.4 – Mike Thomas – Bust - 4
32.3 – Ace Sanders – Bust - 4
32.3 – Tavon Austin – Bust - 1
31.9 – Jerome Pathon – Bust - 2
31.8 – Josh Reed – Bust - 2
31.6 – Brian Hartline – Bust - 4
31.0 – Ryan Broyles – Bust - 2
30.7 – Travis Taylor – Bust - 1
30.6 – Antwaan Randle El – Bust - 2
30.5 – Sidney Rice – Bust - 2
30.4 – Darrin Chiaverini – Bust - 5
30.2 – Jabar Gaffney – Bust - 2
30.1 – Chris Henry – Bust - 3
29.9 – Brandon Jones – Bust - 3
29.9 – Roydell Williams – Bust - 4
29.8 – Eric Parker – Bust - UDFA
29.6 – David Boston – Good - 1
29.6 – Devin Funchess – Bust - 2
29.4 – Jacoby Ford – Bust - 4
29.3 – Cordarrelle Patterson – Bust - 1
29.2 – Bryant Johnson – Bust - 1
29.1 – Laurent Robinson – Bust - 3
29.0 – Hank Baskett – Bust - UDFA
28.9 – Emmanuel Sanders – Stud - 3
28.5 – Laveranues Coles – Stud - 3
28.4 – Nate Burleson – Good - 3
28.3 – Demaryius Thomas – Stud - 1
28.1 – Dennis Northcutt – Bust - 2
28.1 – Mikhael Ricks – Bust - 2
28.0 – Reidel Anthony – Bust - 1
27.9 – Davante Adams – Stud - 2
27.9 – Roddy White – Stud - 1
27.8 – Donte Moncrief – Bust - 3
27.4 – Az-Zahir Hakim – Bust - 4
27.4 – Chad Johnson – Stud - 2
27.3 – Blair White – Bust - UDFA
27.2 – JJ Nelson – Bust - 5
27.0 – Matt Jones – Bust - 1
27.0 – Quincy Morgan – Bust - 2

[Jigga94]

Decided to go back and look at a few of the classes beyond the 2015 sample cutoff.
Probably stopping at 2019 as that class is only 4 full years in and the Stud/Good is determined by at least 3 seasons of 1k/750 yards.

2016: 31 Total WR drafted.
2 Studs (MT, Tyreek).
1 Good (Boyd - could be Stud if he has 1 more 1k season)
28 Busts

67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
MT - 75.8 - Stud

57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game

47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game


Corey Coleman 41.3
Will Fuller 45.4
Josh Doctson 33
Laquon Treadwell 1.7
Sterling Shepard 42.7
Michael Thomas 75.8
Tyler Boyd 37.7 - Good
Braxton Miller 9.9
Leonte Carroo 2.1
Chris Moore 3.1
Malcolm Mitchell 28.6
Ricardo Louis 12.8
Pharoh Cooper 10.6
Demarcus Robinson 0
Tajae Sharpe 32.6
Jordan Payton 0.8
Trevor Davis 2.2
Tyreek Hill 37.1 - Stud
Rashard Higgins 4.8
Moritz Boehringer 0
Jakeem Grant 0
Kolby Listenbee 0
Cody Core 25
Mike Thomas 2.5
Aaron Burbridge 5.5
Devin Lucien 0
DeMarcus Ayers 26.5
Daniel Braverman 0
Devin Fuller 0
Charone Peake 12.4
Kenny Lawler 0




2017: 32 Total WR drafted.
1 Stud (Godwin).
3 Good (M Williams, JuJu, Kupp. Kupp and Mike would move up to Stud with 1 more 1k season.)
28 Busts

67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game

57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
JuJu - 65.5 - Good
Kupp - 57.9 - Good/Stud

47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
Dede technically had 48.4, but does not meet min games played



Corey Davis 34.1
Mike Williams 9.5 - Good
John Ross 0
Zay Jones 21.1
Curtis Samuel 12.8
JuJu Smith-Schuster 65.5
Cooper Kupp 57.9
Taywan Taylor 14.4
ArDarius Stewart 13.7
Carlos Henderson 0
Chris Godwin 32.8 - Stud
Kenny Golladay 43.4
Chad Williams 5.2
Amara Darboh 4.4
Dede Westbrook 48.4
Josh Reynolds 6.5
Mack Hollins 14.1
Josh Malone 5.7
Ryan Switzer 2.6
Jehu Chesson 1.5
Chad Hansen 6.3
Shelton Gibson 2.2
Rodney Adams 0
Isaiah McKenzie 2.6
DeAngelo Yancey 0
Trent Taylor 28.7
Robert Davis 0
Stacy Coley 0
David Moore 0
Isaiah Ford 0
Noah Brown 2.5
Malachi Dupre 0



2018: 33 Total WR drafted.
1 Stud (DJ Moore)
2 Good (Ridley, Sutton. Both need 2 more 1k seasons to be Stud)
30 Busts (Kirk, Gallup and Gage all need 1 more 750 yard season to be Good)

67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game

57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game

47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
Ridley - 51.3 - Good
DJM - 49.3 - Stud
Kirk - 49.2 - Bust/Good
Coutee technically had 47.8, but does not meet min games played



D.J. Moore 49.3
Calvin Ridley 51.3
Courtland Sutton 44 - Good
Dante Pettis 38.9
Christian Kirk 49.2
Anthony Miller 28.2
James Washington 15.5
DJ Chark 15.8
Michael Gallup 31.7
Tre'Quan Smith 28.5
Keke Coutee 47.8
Antonio Callaway 36.6
DaeSean Hamilton 17.4
Jaleel Scott 0
J'Mon Moore 1.3
Justin Watson 0.4
Daurice Fountain 0
Jordan Lasley 0
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 36.3
Damion Ratley 11.1
Deon Cain 0
Ray-Ray McCloud 3.6
Dylan Cantrell 0
Russell Gage 4.2
Equanimeous St. Brown 27.3
Cedrick Wilson 7.7
Braxton Berrios 0
Javon Wims 8
Marcell Ateman 22
Richie James 10
Auden Tate 5
Austin Proehl 0
Trey Quinn 25