SF Start-up Help Welcomed

[Anteaters]

Additionally the most starting QBs you have the easier it is to trade a QB without getting one in return.

The value of this is sometimes overlooked. If you have only 2 or 3 QBs, every trade is viewed through prism of getting at least a crappy starting QB back, and that factor impacts the shape of each QB trade you seriously consider.

When you have 4 or 5 QBs, it becomes much easier to trade Mac for Rhamondre, or Pickens for Hollywood. In other words, it becomes easier to trade a QB to get a non-QB piece you need to jump from "very good team" to "serious contender". In season as a good team without 2QBs is struggling, it will be possible to trade Mac/Pickens for Kirk+1st or RachaadWhite+1st.

Those teams letting QBs slide are betting that everyone currently with 2QBs (much less 3QBs) are going to take a lower-valued skill position player over a higher-valued QB, and the remaining QBs will fall to them. In this scenario, my move would be to continue to take BPAs, which is some of the younger/better NFL starting QBs still on the board.

Halfway through season one, no manager in the league would consider trading away Love/Pickett/Purdy straight up for Flowers/Bateman/Jamo/Keenan. The value here is at least about 2:1 in favor of the QBs.

EDIT: I might be too invested in this draft

...but to keep pounding this point I obviously can't let go of ...
What is the best scenario for Bateman at this point? Maybe that he grows into the sort of career Mike Williams has? And what's that? In 2022 MWilliams was a borderline WR3/WR2. In no SF league is a borderline WR3/WR2 worth a solid QB2.

I'm drafting QBs for the next three rounds if one of these guys is there each time. No questions asked, no tears shed, and no worries. I'd be thrilled to have 6 starting QBs, and I wouldn't worry if no one wanted to trade player+1st early on. If I get to near the end of the season with them, I know at worst I'm trading one or two for 1sts at the playoff turn or in the off season -- then I'm walking into the 2024 draft with five or six picks -- COOL! And I won't be sad for not getting Bateman or Jamo or a 31 year old Keenan.

/ok, now I'm taking a break from this thread until Wednesday.

[tstafford]

Abloom and Ant, again thanks for all the help, I agree for sure about the value of having extra depth at QB. This is even more accentuated since this league is 6 points per passing TD. In that scoring guys like Dalton and Garropolo scored nearly as much as Jaylen Waddle in '22.

Update: six picks in front of me, board listed below. Great options, not inclined to trade out of my next selection.

My top guys:
Burks - I am higher than consensus and was strongly buying before D.Hop signing. Talent hasn’t changed. I’m ok if I’m alone on island
Flowers - round one WR, age, new offense and I’d like to own as share
Love - am I crazy to have him above M.Jones? He’s got better talent around him and similar NFL draft capital
M. Jones - seems unlikely to lose his job, is there upside?
Goedert - doesn’t fit the build, but he’s pretty awesome
Javonte - I don’t want a RB, but he fits the build otherwise, high ADP gain potential
JAMO - Again talent. However I bet he falls

Question: Should we be considering A.Rod and Carr? They seem to have a ton of potential in-season trade value.

QB: M.Jones, Purdy, Love, Pickett, Carr. A.Rod
WR: Burks, McLaurin, Flowers, Brown, Jamo, Kirk, Bateman, E.Moore
RB: Dobbins, Javonte, Sanders, Swift, Akers, all rookies after top-2
TE: Kittle, Goedert, Freier, Kincaid, Njoku

Current roster: Kyler, Tua, Stroud, Lamb, Metcalf
(2024: 3 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd)

[abloom]

Abloom and Ant, again thanks for all the help, I agree for sure about the value of having extra depth at QB. This is even more accentuated since this league is 6 points per passing TD. In that scoring guys like Dalton and Garropolo scored nearly as much as Jaylen Waddle in '22.

Update: six picks in front of me, board listed below. Great options, not inclined to trade out of my next selection.

My top guys:
Burks - I am higher than consensus and was strongly buying before D.Hop signing. Talent hasn’t changed. I’m ok if I’m alone on island
Flowers - round one WR, age, new offense and I’d like to own as share
Love - am I crazy to have him above M.Jones? He’s got better talent around him and similar NFL draft capital
M. Jones - seems unlikely to lose his job, is there upside?
Goedert - doesn’t fit the build, but he’s pretty awesome
Javonte - I don’t want a RB, but he fits the build otherwise, high ADP gain potential
JAMO - Again talent. However I bet he falls

Question: Should we be considering A.Rod and Carr? They seem to have a ton of potential in-season trade value.

QB: M.Jones, Purdy, Love, Pickett, Carr. A.Rod
WR: Burks, McLaurin, Flowers, Brown, Jamo, Kirk, Bateman, E.Moore
RB: Dobbins, Javonte, Sanders, Swift, Akers, all rookies after top-2
TE: Kittle, Goedert, Freier, Kincaid, Njoku

Current roster: Kyler, Tua, Stroud, Lamb, Metcalf
(2024: 3 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd)

So I have Jones easily ahead of love. While both have first round draft capital, Jones was taken in the first 15 picks, while love was not. If memory serves if you are in the first 15 your hit rate is much higher. Also yes, he does have upside even with the limited tallent at receiver, primarily due to the upgrade in OC.

I would currently have the following as my rankings
Mac
Kittle
Goedert
Love
Pickett
Jamo
Burks
Purdy
Arod
Carr

[tstafford]

Gone: Flowers, Kincaid, Brown, Dobbins, Javonte
One pick before me.

As much as I like the idea of adding a fourth QB, I believe in Burks. And I think he's fallen too far.

[tstafford]

Took Burks. Call me a homer.

[Menace2010]

I still really like him, would prefer he be my WR3/4 as opposed to WR2, but if he hits he has a ton of upside. He was a top 5 rookie pick in 2022 and showed flashes, worth more to me than a random 2024 1st still... but I've definitely drank the Kool-aid.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

I think I would still have taken another qb but hopefully Burks gains a bunch of value. I’m just worried that if you needed another qb you would need Burks to gain value to acquire someone like Care or Mac or even Rodgers in season. Counter to that is you like Burks and feel good about it and that’s half the reason we play. .

[The.Big.Spank]

I think I would have gone QB to lessen the pool and semi force somebody to trade with me to get one like Ant was saying. Burks was kind of a one trick pony in college so that sours me on him a little.

[tstafford]

Four QBs of interest fell to me after taking Burks. Currently OTC
Carr
Stafford
M.Jones
Howell

I know folks were pushing Jones, but it seems that Carr is the right pick. My argument is the following:
- We want him as in season trade bait to a contending team in QB trouble (vast majority have only 2 so far)
- His contract nearly guarantees him at least 2 if not 3 or 4 years of play time (valuable in that trade discussion)
- M.Jones could be out of a job (and folks will surely argue that in a trade discussion)
- Carr probably has no upside but he doesn't have much downside either (valuable as a QB2 if you are desperate)

[tstafford]

Took Carr. So here's the team now:
QB: Tua, Kyler, Stroud, Carr
WR: Lamb, Metcalf, Burks
2024: 3 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd
Up again in nine picks

FWIW - The Burks selection cost me Love. So in retrospect:
Carr/Burks
or
Love/Evans or G.Davis

I can argue both sides but the Love side probably is more attractive to most given the recent decline in POV on Burks.

[tstafford]

All - it's getting to be crunch time in this draft. I think now is when the DLF assistance is going to pay off the most. I think it's time to start going BPA regardless of position (inc. RB and not being quite so ageist). Here are the top guys IMO:
QB: Stafford, M.Jones, Howell
RB: Miller, Achane, J.Cook, Bigsby, Montgomery
WR: Evans, Allen, Hopkins, E.Moore, Bateman
TE: Kittle, Goedert, Freir, Njoku

My top guys:
Kittle - can't believe he's still here
Goedert - same argument as Kittle, dealer's choice b/w the two
Miller - best rookie RB left IMO
J.Cook - I think the talent can win out
Achane - maybe higher value than Miller, boom bust, could be fun to own, I don't think D.Cook matters for Achane if he lands in MIA

The other way to go is to take one of the aging WRs or remains QBs and continue on the path of acquiring assets to deal.

[Anteaters]

For me ...

Mac Jones (is Pickett still available?)
.
Goedert
K Miller
.
Kittle (I'm maybe a little irrationally fearful of his injury history)
Bigsby
Howell
.
Achane
Stafford

I have no interest in those WRs at this point. Little interest in Frier/Njoku in non-TEP/non2TE. No interest in JCook at this point.

Today's Wednesday, right?

[BradysBunch]

Mac, Miller, Kittle

[The.Big.Spank]

Miller, Bateman, Goedert. You seem to be drafting a future upside team. I think those three fit that bill. I can see the case for Mac but I think people will not really trust him enough to want to pay up for him given how Bill feels about him and since NE is a poor team there is a good chance they have a crack at a top pick and draft another QB in the near future.

I think people are also leery of Stafford. He has taken a heck of a pounding in Detroit and LA and has always been more volume based then a great QB.

I think its time to start adding pieces you can use in the future after the 24 draft.

[Mtt33]

I’d take mac for sure here. Miller is a great option too but Isolating value at 1 position helps you “tank” better and lock in 1 overall which should be a goal of yours since you don’t plan on competing.